Agent-orientated auction mechanism and strategy design

Agent-based technology is playing an increasingly important role in today’s economy. Usually a multi-agent system is needed to model an economic system such as a market system, in which heterogeneous trading agents interact with each other autonomously. Two questions often need to be answered regarding such systems: 1) How to design an interacting mechanism that facilitates efficient resource allocation among usually self-interested trading agents? 2) How to design an effective strategy in some specific market mechanisms for an agent to maximise its economic returns? For automated market systems, auction is the most popular mechanism to solve resource allocation problems among their participants. However, auction comes in hundreds of different formats, in which some are better than others in terms of not only the allocative efficiency but also other properties e.g., whether it generates high revenue for the auctioneer, whether it induces stable behaviour of the bidders. In addition, different strategies result in very different performance under the same auction rules. With this background, we are inevitably intrigued to investigate auction mechanism and strategy designs for agent-based economics. The international Trading Agent Competition (TAC) Ad Auction (AA) competition provides a very useful platform to develop and test agent strategies in Generalised Second Price auction (GSP). AstonTAC, the runner-up of TAC AA 2009, is a successful advertiser agent designed for GSP-based keyword auction. In particular, AstonTAC generates adaptive bid prices according to the Market-based Value Per Click and selects a set of keyword queries with highest expected profit to bid on to maximise its expected profit under the limit of conversion capacity. Through evaluation experiments, we show that AstonTAC performs well and stably not only in the competition but also across a broad range of environments. The TAC CAT tournament provides an environment for investigating the optimal design of mechanisms for double auction markets. AstonCAT-Plus is the post-tournament version of the specialist developed for CAT 2010. In our experiments, AstonCAT-Plus not only outperforms most specialist agents designed by other institutions but also achieves high allocative efficiencies, transaction success rates and average trader profits. Moreover, we reveal some insights of the CAT: 1) successful markets should maintain a stable and high market share of intra-marginal traders; 2) a specialist’s performance is dependent on the distribution of trading strategies. However, typical double auction models assume trading agents have a fixed trading direction of either buy or sell. With this limitation they cannot directly reflect the fact that traders in financial markets (the most popular application of double auction) decide their trading directions dynamically. To address this issue, we introduce the Bi-directional Double Auction (BDA) market which is populated by two-way traders. Experiments are conducted under both dynamic and static settings of the continuous BDA market. We find that the allocative efficiency of a continuous BDA market mainly comes from rational selection of trading directions. Furthermore, we introduce a high-performance Kernel trading strategy in the BDA market which uses kernel probability density estimator built on historical transaction data to decide optimal order prices. Kernel trading strategy outperforms some popular intelligent double auction trading strategies including ZIP, GD and RE in the continuous BDA market by making the highest profit in static games and obtaining the best wealth in dynamic games.

Simulating the value of collaboration in multi-actor conservation planning

The loss of habitat and biodiversity worldwide has led to considerable resources being spent for conservation purposes on actions such as the acquisition and management of land, the rehabilitation of degraded habitats, and the purchase of easements from private landowners. Prioritising these actions is challenging due to the complexity of the problem and because there can be multiple actors undertaking conservation actions, often with divergent or partially overlapping objectives. We use a modelling framework to explore this issue with a study involving two agents sequentially purchasing land for conservation. We apply our model to simulated data using distributions taken from real data to simulate the cost of patches and the rarity and co-occurence of species. In our model each agent attempted to implement a conservation network that met its target for the minimum cost using the conservation planning software Marxan. We examine three scenarios where the conservation targets of the agents differ. The first scenario (called NGO-NGO) models the situation where two NGOs are both are targeting different sets of threatened species. The second and third scenarios (called NGO-Gov and Gov-NGO, respectively) represent a case where a government agency attempts to implement a complementary conservation network representing all species, while an NGO is focused on achieving additional protection for the most endangered species. For each of these scenarios we examined three types of interactions between agents: i) acting in isolation where the agents are attempting to achieve their targets solely though their own actions ii) sharing information where each agent is aware of the species representation achieved within the other agent’s conservation network and, iii) pooling resources where agents combine their resources and undertake conservation actions as a single entity. The latter two interactions represent different types of collaborations and in each scenario we determine the cost savings from sharing information or pooling resources. In each case we examined the utility of these interactions from the viewpoint of the combined conservation network resulting from both agents' actions, as well as from each agent’s individual perspective. The costs for each agent to achieve their objectives varied depending on the order in which the agents acted, the type of interaction between agents, and the specific goals of each agent. There were significant cost savings from increased collaboration via sharing information in the NGO-NGO scenario were the agent’s representation goals were mutually exclusive (in terms of specie targeted). In the NGO-Gov and Gov-NGO scenarios, collaboration generated much smaller savings. If the two agents collaborate by pooling resources there are multiple ways the total cost could be shared between both agents. For each scenario we investigate the costs and benefits for all possible cost sharing proportions. We find that there are a range of cost sharing proportions where both agents can benefit in the NGO-NGO scenarios while the NGO-Gov and Gov-NGO scenarios again showed little benefit. Although the model presented here has a range of simplifying assumptions, it demonstrates that the value of collaboration can vary significantly in different situations. In most cases, collaborating would have associated costs and these costs need to be weighed against the potential benefits from collaboration. The model demonstrates a method for determining the range of collaboration costs that would result in collaboration providing an efficient use of scarce conservation resources.

Formulation and process engineering of freeze-dried orally disintegrating tablets

Orally disintegrating tablets (ODTs) which are also referred to as orodispersible and fast disintegrating tablets, are solid oral dosage forms which upon placing on the tongue, disperse/disintegrate rapidly before being swallowed as a suspension or solution. ODTs are therefore easier and more convenient to administer than conventional tablets and are particularly beneficial for paediatric and geriatric patients, who generally have difficulty swallowing their medication. The work presented in this thesis involved the formulation and process development of ODTs, prepared using freeze-drying. Gelatin is one of the principal excipients used in the formulation of freeze-dried ODTs. One of the studies presented in this thesis investigated the potential modification of the properties of this excipient, in order to improve the performance of the tablets. As gelatin is derived from animal sources, a number of ethical issues surround its use as an excipient in pharmaceutical preparations. This was one of the motivations, Methocel™ and Kollicoat® IR were evaluated as binders as alternative materials to gelatin. Polyox™ was also evaluated as a binder together with its potential uses as a viscosity increasing and mucoadhesive agent to increase the retention of tablets in the mouth to encourage pre-gastric absorption of active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs). The in vitro oral retention of freeze-dried ODT formulations was one property which was assessed in a design of experiments – factorial design study, which was carried out to further understand the role that formulation excipients have on the properties of the tablets. Finally, the novel approach of incorporating polymeric nanoparticles in freeze-dried ODTs was investigated, to study if the release profile of APIs could be modified, which could improve their therapeutic effect. The results from these studies demonstrated that the properties of gelatin-based formulations can be modified by adjusting pH and ionic strength. Adjustment of formulation pH has shown to significantly reduce tablet disintegration time. Evaluating Methocel™, in particular low viscosity grades, and Kollicoat® IR as binders has shown that these polymers can form tablets of satisfactory hardness and disintegration time. Investigating Polyox™ as an excipient in freeze-dried ODT formulations revealed that low viscosity grades appear suitable as binders whilst higher viscosity grades could potentially be utilised as viscosity increasing and mucoadhesive agents. The design of experiments – factorial design study revealed the influence of individual excipients in a formulation mix on resultant tablet properties and in vitro oral retention of APIs. Novel methods have been developed, which allows the incorporation of polymeric nanoparticles in situ in freeze-dried ODT formulations, which allows the modification of the release profile of APIs.

MRI pressure and stress measurement in novel homogeneous soft solids

This paper presents MRI measurements of a novel semi solid MR contrast agent to pressure. The agent is comprised of potassium chloride cross linked carageenan gum at a concentration of 2% w/v, with micron size lipid coated bubbles of air at a concentration of 3% v/v. The choice for an optimum suspending medium, the methods of production and the preliminary MRI results are presented herein. The carageenan gum is shown to be ideally elastic for compressions relating to volume changes less than 15%, in contrast to the inelastic gellan gum also tested. Although slightly lower than that of gellan gum, carageenan has a water diffusion coefficient of 1.72×10-9 m2.s-1 indicating its suitability to this purpose. RARE imaging is performed whilst simultaneously compressing test and control samples and a maximum sensitivity of 1.6% MR signal change per % volume change is found which is shown to be independent of proton density variations due to the presence of microbubbles and compression. This contrast agent could prove useful for numerous applications, and particularly in chemical engineering. More generally the method allows the user to non-invasively image with MRI any process that causes, within the solid, local changes either in bubble size or bubble shape. © 2008 American Institute of Physics.

Self-adaptive probabilistic roadmap generation for intelligent virtual agents

Agents inhabiting large scale environments are faced with the problem of generating maps by which they can navigate. One solution to this problem is to use probabilistic roadmaps which rely on selecting and connecting a set of points that describe the interconnectivity of free space. However, the time required to generate these maps can be prohibitive, and agents do not typically know the environment in advance. In this paper we show that the optimal combination of different point selection methods used to create the map is dependent on the environment, no point selection method dominates. This motivates a novel self-adaptive approach for an agent to combine several point selection methods. The success rate of our approach is comparable to the state of the art and the generation cost is substantially reduced. Self-adaptation therefore enables a more efficient use of the agent's resources. Results are presented for both a set of archetypal scenarios and large scale virtual environments based in Second Life, representing real locations in London.

Troglitazone

Troglitazone was the first thiazolidinedione antihyperglycemic agent to be introduced for the treatment of type 2 diabetes mellitus. It was introduced in 1997, but withdrawn almost immediately (UK) or by 2000 (USA) as evidence emerged of fatal idiosyncratic hepatotoxicity... © 2007 Copyright © 2007 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

On the adoption of privacy-enhancing technologies

We propose a model, based on the work of Brock and Durlauf, which looks at how agents make choices between competing technologies, as a framework for exploring aspects of the economics of the adoption of privacy-enhancing technologies. In order to formulate a model of decision-making among choices of technologies by these agents, we consider the following: context, the setting in which and the purpose for which a given technology is used; requirement, the level of privacy that the technology must provide for an agent to be willing to use the technology in a given context; belief, an agent’s perception of the level of privacy provided by a given technology in a given context; and the relative value of privacy, how much an agent cares about privacy in this context and how willing an agent is to trade off privacy for other attributes. We introduce these concepts into the model, admitting heterogeneity among agents in order to capture variations in requirement, belief, and relative value in the population. We illustrate the model with two examples: the possible effects on the adoption of iOS devices being caused by the recent Apple–FBI case; and the recent revelations about the non-deletion of images on the adoption of Snapchat.