16 resultados para What-if Analysis

em Aston University Research Archive


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When testing the difference between two groups, if previous data indicate non-normality, then either transform the data if they comprise percentages, integers or scores or use a non-parametric test. If there is uncertainty whether the data are normally distributed, then deviations from normality are likely to be small if the data are measurements to three significant figures. Unless there is clear evidence that the distribution is non-normal, it is more efficient to use the conventional t-tests. It is poor statistical practice to carry out both the parametric and non-parametric tests on a set of data and then choose the result that is most convenient to the investigator!

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Designers of self-adaptive systems often formulate adaptive design decisions, making unrealistic or myopic assumptions about the system's requirements and environment. The decisions taken during this formulation are crucial for satisfying requirements. In environments which are characterized by uncertainty and dynamism, deviation from these assumptions is the norm and may trigger 'surprises'. Our method allows designers to make explicit links between the possible emergence of surprises, risks and design trade-offs. The method can be used to explore the design decisions for self-adaptive systems and choose among decisions that better fulfil (or rather partially fulfil) non-functional requirements and address their trade-offs. The analysis can also provide designers with valuable input for refining the adaptation decisions to balance, for example, resilience (i.e. Satisfiability of non-functional requirements and their trade-offs) and stability (i.e. Minimizing the frequency of adaptation). The objective is to provide designers of self adaptive systems with a basis for multi-dimensional what-if analysis to revise and improve the understanding of the environment and its effect on non-functional requirements and thereafter decision-making. We have applied the method to a wireless sensor network for flood prediction. The application shows that the method gives rise to questions that were not explicitly asked before at design-time and assists designers in the process of risk-aware, what-if and trade-off analysis.

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The recent recession has caused upheaval for the economies worldwide. The impact has been felt enormously all over and especially in the manufacturing sector. This report discusses significant data on China's manufacturing industry that suggests they are already growing again despite recent events, while India has continued to maintain their efforts. One question the report raises is as the balance of economic power shifts to the East, what if the future for the once great UK manufacturing industry?

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This study was carried out with new lecturers on a two year Post Graduate Certificate in Learning and Teaching in Higher Education programme in a UK university. The aim was to establish their beliefs about how studying on the programme aligned with their teaching and learning philosophy and what, if anything, had changed or constrained those beliefs. Ten lecturers took part in an in-depth semi-structured interview. Content analysis of the transcripts suggested positive reactions to the programme but lecturers’ new insights were sometimes constrained by departments and university bureaucracy, particularly in the area of assessment. The conflicting roles of research and teaching were also a major issue facing these new professionals.

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Purpose – This paper aims to clarify what ‘narrative analysis’ may entail when it is assumed that interview accounts can be treated as (collections of) narratives. What is considered a narrative and how these may be analyzed is open to debate. After suggesting an approach of how to deal with narrative analysis, the authors critically discuss how far it might offer insights into a particular accounting case. Design/methodology/approach – After having explained what the authors’ view on narrative analysis is, and how this is linked with the extant literature, the authors examine the socialisation processes of two early career accountants that have been articulated in an interview context. Findings – The approach to narrative analysis set out in this paper could help to clarify how and why certain interpretations from an interview are generated by a researcher. The authors emphasise the importance of discussing a researcher’s process of discovery when an interpretive approach to research is adopted. Research limitations/implications – The application of any method, and what a researcher thinks can be distilled from this, depends on the research outlook he/she has. As the authors adopt an interpretive approach to research in this paper, they acknowledge that the interpretations of narratives, and what they deem to be narratives, will be infused by their own perceptions. Practical implications – The authors believe that the writing-up of qualitative research from an interpretive stance would benefit from an explicit acceptance of the equivocal nature of interpretation. The way in which they present and discuss the narrative analyses in this paper intends to bring this to the fore. Originality/value – Whenever someone says he/she engages in narrative analysis, both the “narrative” and “analysis” part of “narrative analysis” need to be explicated. The authors believe that this only happens every so often. This paper puts forward an approach of how more clarity on this might be achieved by combining two frameworks in the extant literature, so that the transparency of the research is enhanced.

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Studies have shown that the brand “owner” is very influential in positioning the brand and when the brand “owner” ceases his or her active role the brand will be perceived differently by the consumers. Balance Theory (HBT), a cognitive psychological theory, studies the triadic relationships between two persons and an entity and predicts that when a person’s original perception of the relationship is disturbed, the person restructures to a new balanced perception. Consequently, this research was undertaken to: conceptualize the brand owner’s impact on consumer’s brand perception; test the applicability of both the static and dynamic predictions of the Heider’s Balance Theory in brand owner-consumer-brand relation (OCB); construct and test a model of brand owner-consumer-brand relation; and examine if personality has an influence on OCB. A discovery-oriented approach was taken to understand the selected market segment, the ready-to-wear and diffusion lines of international designer labels. Chinese Brand Personality Scale, fashion proneness and hedonic and utilitarian shopping scales were developed, and validated. 51 customers were surveyed. Both traditional and extended methods used in the Balance Theory were employed in this study. Responses to liked brand have been used to test and develop the model, while those for disliked brand were used for test and confirmation. A “what if’ experimental approach was employed to test the applicability of dynamic HBT theory in OCB Model. The hypothesized OCB Model has been tested and validated. Consumers have been found to have separate views on the brand and the brand owner; and their responses to contrasting ethical and non-ethical news of the brand owner are different. Personality has been found to have an influence and two personality adapted models have been tested and validated. The actual results go beyond the prediction of the Balance Theory. Dominant triple positive balance mode, dominant negative balance mode, and mode of extreme antipathy have been found. It has been found that not all balanced modes are good for the brand. Contrary to Heider’s findings, simply liking may not necessarily lead to unit relation in the OCB Model.

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The way interviews are used in accounting research, and the way this research is written up, suggests that there is only one way to interpret these interviews. This invests the author(s) with great perceptive power and storytelling ability. What if different assumptions are used about how to interpret research, and how to present the ensuing findings? We give an illustration of what this might imply, using the notion of 'reflexivity'. The setting for our illustration concerns a series of interviews with management accountants on the dilemmas they face in their daily work. We apply Alvesson's ideas on how to use metaphors to open up the interpretation of interview accounts. The aim of the paper is to shed a different light on the way interviews can be used and interpreted in accounting research. We assert that allowing for reflexive accounts is likely to require substantially differently written research papers, in which the process of discovery is emphasized. © 2011 Elsevier Ltd.

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Discriminant analysis (also known as discriminant function analysis or multiple discriminant analysis) is a multivariate statistical method of testing the degree to which two or more populations may overlap with each other. It was devised independently by several statisticians including Fisher, Mahalanobis, and Hotelling ). The technique has several possible applications in Microbiology. First, in a clinical microbiological setting, if two different infectious diseases were defined by a number of clinical and pathological variables, it may be useful to decide which measurements were the most effective at distinguishing between the two diseases. Second, in an environmental microbiological setting, the technique could be used to study the relationships between different populations, e.g., to what extent do the properties of soils in which the bacterium Azotobacter is found differ from those in which it is absent? Third, the method can be used as a multivariate ‘t’ test , i.e., given a number of related measurements on two groups, the analysis can provide a single test of the hypothesis that the two populations have the same means for all the variables studied. This statnote describes one of the most popular applications of discriminant analysis in identifying the descriptive variables that can distinguish between two populations.

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Growth in availability and ability of modern statistical software has resulted in greater numbers of research techniques being applied across the marketing discipline. However, with such advances come concerns that techniques may be misinterpreted by researchers. This issue is critical since misinterpretation could cause erroneous findings. This paper investigates some assumptions regarding: 1) the assessment of discriminant validity; and 2) what confirmatory factor analysis accomplishes. Examples that address these points are presented, and some procedural remedies are suggested based upon the literature. This paper is, therefore, primarily concerned with the development of measurement theory and practice. If advances in theory development are not based upon sound methodological practice, we as researchers could be basing our work upon shaky foundations.

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Free Paper Sessions Design. Retrospective analysis. Purpose. To assess the prevalence of center-involving diabetic macular oedema (CIDMO) and risk factors. Methods. Retrospective review of patients who were screen positive for maculopathy (M1) during 2010 in East and North Birmingham. The CIDMO was diagnosed by qualitative identification of definite foveal oedema on optical coherence tomography (OCT). Results. Out of a total of 15,234 patients screened, 1194 (7.8%) were screen positive for M1 (64% bilateral). A total of 137 (11.5% of M1s) were diagnosed with macular oedema after clinical assessment. The OCT results were available for 123/137; 69 (56.1%) of these had CI-DMO (30 bilateral) which is 0.5% of total screens and 5.8% of those screen positive for M1. In those with CIDMO 60.9% were male and 63.8% Caucasian; 90% had type 2 diabetes and mean diabetes duration was 20 years (SD 9.7, range 2-48). Mean HbA1c was 8.34%±1.69, with 25% having an HbA1c =9%. Furthermore, 62% were on insulin, 67% were on antihypertensive therapy, and 64% were on a cholesterol-lowering drug. A total of 37.7% had an eGFR between 30% and 60% and 5.8% had eGFR <30. The only significant difference between the CIDMO and non-CIDMO group was mean age (67.83±12.26 vs 59.69±15.82; p=0.002). A total of 65.2% of those with CIDMO also had proliferative or preproliferative retinopathy in the worst eye and 68.1% had subsequently been treated with macular laser at the time of data review. Conclusions. The results show that the prevalence of CIDMO in our diabetic population was 0.5%. A significant proportion of macula oedema patients were found to have type 2 diabetes with long disease duration, suboptimal glycemic and hypertensive control, and low eGFR. The data support that medical and diabetic review of CIDMO patients is warranted particularly in the substantial number with poor glycemic control and if intravitreal therapies are indicated.

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Purpose – This paper attempts to seek answers to four questions. Two of these questions have been borrowed (but adapted) from the work of Defee et al.: RQ1. To what extent is theory used in purchasing and supply chain management (P&SCM) research? RQ2. What are the prevalent theories to be found in P&SCM research? Following on from these questions an additional question is posed: RQ3. Are theory-based papers more highly cited than papers with no theoretical foundation? Finally, drawing on the work of Harland et al., the authors have added a fourth question: RQ4. To what extent does P&SCM meet the tests of coherence, breadth and depth, and quality necessary to make it a scientific discipline? Design/methodology/approach – A systematic literature review was conducted in accordance with the model outlined by Tranfield et al. for three journals within the field of “purchasing and supply chain management”. In total 1,113 articles were reviewed. In addition a citation analysis was completed covering 806 articles in total. Findings – The headline features from the results suggest that nearly a decade-and-a-half on from its development, the field still lacks coherence. There is the absence of theory in much of the work and although theory-based articles achieved on average a higher number of citations than non-theoretical papers, there is no obvious contender as an emergent paradigm for the discipline. Furthermore, it is evident that P&SCM does not meet Fabian's test necessary to make it a scientific discipline and is still some way from being a normal science. Research limitations/implications – This study would have benefited from the analysis of further journals, however the analysis of 1,113 articles from three leading journals in the field of P&SCM was deemed sufficient in scope. In addition, a further significant line of enquiry to follow is the rigour vs relevance debate. Practical implications – This article is of interest to both an academic and practitioner audience as it highlights the use theories in P&SCM. Furthermore, this article raises a number of important questions. Should research in this area draw more heavily on theory and if so which theories are appropriate? Social implications – The broader social implications relate to the discussion of how a scientific discipline develops and builds on the work of Fabian and Amundson. Originality/value – The data set for this study is significant and builds on a number of previous literature reviews. This review is both greater in scope than previous reviews and is broader in its subject focus. In addition, the citation analysis (not previously conducted in any of the reviews) and statistical test highlights that theory-based articles are more highly cited than non-theoretically based papers. This could indicate that researchers are attempting to build on one another's work.

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The proposed meta-analysis of 61 independent samples aims to identify whether, and if so under what conditions, team working in organizations is related to organizational effectiveness. Team working had a significant though small positive relationship with both performance outcomes and staff attitudes. Our contingency analyses further showed that team working had a stronger relationship with performance outcomes if accompanied by complementary HR measures and in non-health-care settings. Finally, we found that team working is more strongly related to attitudinal outcomes in Sociotechnical Systems and health-care settings. © 2011 Taylor & Francis.

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WHAT IS ALREADY KNOWN ABOUT THIS SUBJECT • The cytotoxic effects of 6-mercaptopurine (6-MP) were found to be due to drug-derived intracellular metabolites (mainly 6-thioguanine nucleotides and to some extent 6-methylmercaptopurine nucleotides) rather than the drug itself. • Current empirical dosing methods for oral 6-MP result in highly variable drug and metabolite concentrations and hence variability in treatment outcome. WHAT THIS STUDY ADDS • The first population pharmacokinetic model has been developed for 6-MP active metabolites in paediatric patients with acute lymphoblastic leukaemia and the potential demographic and genetically controlled factors that could lead to interpatient pharmacokinetic variability among this population have been assessed. • The model shows a large reduction in interindividual variability of pharmacokinetic parameters when body surface area and thiopurine methyltransferase polymorphism are incorporated into the model as covariates. • The developed model offers a more rational dosing approach for 6-MP than the traditional empirical method (based on body surface area) through combining it with pharmacogenetically guided dosing based on thiopurine methyltransferase genotype. AIMS - To investigate the population pharmacokinetics of 6-mercaptopurine (6-MP) active metabolites in paediatric patients with acute lymphoblastic leukaemia (ALL) and examine the effects of various genetic polymorphisms on the disposition of these metabolites. METHODS - Data were collected prospectively from 19 paediatric patients with ALL (n = 75 samples, 150 concentrations) who received 6-MP maintenance chemotherapy (titrated to a target dose of 75 mg m−2 day−1). All patients were genotyped for polymorphisms in three enzymes involved in 6-MP metabolism. Population pharmacokinetic analysis was performed with the nonlinear mixed effects modelling program (nonmem) to determine the population mean parameter estimate of clearance for the active metabolites. RESULTS - The developed model revealed considerable interindividual variability (IIV) in the clearance of 6-MP active metabolites [6-thioguanine nucleotides (6-TGNs) and 6-methylmercaptopurine nucleotides (6-mMPNs)]. Body surface area explained a significant part of 6-TGNs clearance IIV when incorporated in the model (IIV reduced from 69.9 to 29.3%). The most influential covariate examined, however, was thiopurine methyltransferase (TPMT) genotype, which resulted in the greatest reduction in the model's objective function (P < 0.005) when incorporated as a covariate affecting the fractional metabolic transformation of 6-MP into 6-TGNs. The other genetic covariates tested were not statistically significant and therefore were not included in the final model. CONCLUSIONS - The developed pharmacokinetic model (if successful at external validation) would offer a more rational dosing approach for 6-MP than the traditional empirical method since it combines the current practice of using body surface area in 6-MP dosing with a pharmacogenetically guided dosing based on TPMT genotype.

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Background - This study investigates the coverage of adherence to medicine by the UK and US newsprint media. Adherence to medicine is recognised as an important issue facing healthcare professionals and the newsprint media is a key source of health information, however, little is known about newspaper coverage of medication adherence. Methods - A search of the newspaper database Nexis®UK from 2004–2011 was performed. Content analysis of newspaper articles which referenced medication adherence from the twelve highest circulating UK and US daily newspapers and their Sunday equivalents was carried out. A second researcher coded a 15% sample of newspaper articles to establish the inter-rater reliability of coding. Results - Searches of newspaper coverage of medication adherence in the UK and US yielded 181 relevant articles for each country. There was a large increase in the number of scientific articles on medication adherence in PubMed® over the study period, however, this was not reflected in the frequency of newspaper articles published on medication adherence. UK newspaper articles were significantly more likely to report the benefits of adherence (p = 0.005), whereas US newspaper articles were significantly more likely to report adherence issues in the elderly population (p = 0.004) and adherence associated with diseases of the central nervous system (p = 0.046). The most commonly reported barriers to adherence were patient factors e.g. poor memory, beliefs and age, whereas, the most commonly reported facilitators to adherence were medication factors including simplified regimens, shorter treatment duration and combination tablets. HIV/AIDS was the single most frequently cited disease (reported in 20% of newspaper articles). Poor quality reporting of medication adherence was identified in 62% of newspaper articles. Conclusion - Adherence is not well covered in the newspaper media despite a significant presence in the medical literature. The mass media have the potential to help educate and shape the public’s knowledge regarding the importance of medication adherence; this potential is not being realised at present.

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Purpose: Phonological accounts of reading implicate three aspects of phonological awareness tasks that underlie the relationship with reading; a) the language-based nature of the stimuli (words or nonwords), b) the verbal nature of the response, and c) the complexity of the stimuli (words can be segmented into units of speech). Yet, it is uncertain which task characteristics are most important as they are typically confounded. By systematically varying response-type and stimulus complexity across speech and non-speech stimuli, the current study seeks to isolate the characteristics of phonological awareness tasks that drive the prediction of early reading. Method: Four sets of tasks were created; tone stimuli (simple non-speech) requiring a non-verbal response, phonemes (simple speech) requiring a non-verbal response, phonemes requiring a verbal response, and nonwords (complex speech) requiring a verbal response. Tasks were administered to 570 2nd grade children along with standardized tests of reading and non-verbal IQ. Results: Three structural equation models comparing matched sets of tasks were built. Each model consisted of two 'task' factors with a direct link to a reading factor. The following factors predicted unique variance in reading: a) simple speech and non-speech stimuli, b) simple speech requiring a verbal response but not simple speech requiring a non-verbal-response, and c) complex and simple speech stimuli. Conclusions: Results suggest that the prediction of reading by phonological tasks is driven by the verbal nature of the response and not the complexity or 'speechness' of the stimuli. Findings highlight the importance of phonological output processes to early reading.