Monetary models of exchange rates and sweep programs

Numerous studies find that monetary models of exchange rates cannot beat a random walk model. Such a finding, however, is not surprising given that such models are built upon money demand functions and traditional money demand functions appear to have broken down in many developed countries. In this article, we investigate whether using a more stable underlying money demand function results in improvements in forecasts of monetary models of exchange rates. More specifically, we use a sweep-adjusted measure of US monetary aggregate M1 which has been shown to have a more stable money demand function than the official M1 measure. The results suggest that the monetary models of exchange rates contain information about future movements of exchange rates, but the success of such models depends on the stability of money demand functions and the specifications of the models.

Monetary models of exchange rates and sweep programs

Numerous studies find that monetary models of exchange rates cannot beat a random walk model. Such a finding, however, is not surprising given that such models are built upon money demand functions and traditional money demand functions appear to have broken down in many developed countries. In this paper we investigate whether using a more stable underlying money demand function results in improvements in forecasts of monetary models of exchange rates. More specifically, we use a sweepadjusted measure of US monetary aggregate M1 which has been shown to have a more stable money demand function than the official M1 measure. The results suggest that the monetary models of exchange rates contain information about future movements of exchange rates but the success of such models depends on the stability of money demand functions and the specifications of the models.

Within-site variation in lichen growth rates and its implications for direct lichenometry

Variation in lichen growth rates poses a significant challenge for the application of direct lichenometry, i.e. the construction of lichen dating curves from direct measurement of growth rates. To examine the magnitude and possible causes of within-site growth variation, radial growth rates (RaGRs) of thalli of the fast-growing foliose lichen Melanelia fuliginosa ssp. fuliginosa (Fr. ex Duby) Essl. and the slow-growing crustose lichen Rhizocarpon geographicum (L.) DC. were studied on two S-facing slate rock surfaces in north Wales, UK using digital photography and an image analysis system (Image-J). RaGRs of M. fuliginosa ssp. fuliginosa varied from 0.44 to 2.63 mmyr-1 and R. geographicum from 0.10 to 1.50 mmyr-1.5. Analysis of variance suggested no significant variation in RaGRs with vertical or horizontal location on the rock, thallus diameter, aspect, slope, light intensity, rock porosity, rock surface texture, distance to nearest lichen neighbour or distance to vegetation on the rock surface. The frequency distribution of RaGR did not deviate from a normal distribution. It was concluded that despite considerable growth rate variation in both species studied, growth curves could be constructed with sufficient precision to be useful for direct lichenometry. © 2014 Swedish Society for Anthropology and Geography.

'Growth rings' in crustose lichens:comparison with directly measured growth rates and implications for lichenometry

Some species of crustose lichens, such as Ochrolechia parella (L.) Massal., exhibit concentric marginal rings, which may represent an alternative technique of measuring growth rates and potentially, a new lichenometric dating method. To examine this hypothesis, the agreement and correlation between ring widths and directly measured annual radial growth rates (RaGR, mm a^-1) were studied in 24 thalli of O. parella in north Wales, UK, using digital photography and image analysis. Variation in ring width was observed at different locations around a thallus, between thalli, and from year to year. The best agreement and correlation between ring width and lichen growth rates was between mean width of the outer two rings (measured in 2011) and mean RaGR (in 2009/10). The O. parella data suggest that mean width of the youngest two growth rings, averaged over a sample of thalli, is a predictor of recent growth rates and therefore could be used in lichenometry. Potential applications include as a convenient method of comparing lichen growth rates on surfaces in different environmental settings; and as an alternative method of constructing lichen growth-rate curves, without having to revisit the same lichen thalli over many years. However, care is needed when using growth rings to estimate growth rates as: growth ring widths may not be stable; ring widths exhibit spatial and temporal variation; rings may not represent 1-year's growth in all thalli; and adjacent rings may not always represent successive year's growth.

Sequential pyrolysis of willow SRC at low and high heating rates:implications for selective pyrolysis

The main aim of the work is to investigate sequential pyrolysis of willow SRC using two different heating rates (25 and 1500 °C/min) between 320 and 520 °C. Thermogravimetric analysis (TGA) and pyrolysis - gas chromatography - mass spectroscopy (Py-GC-MS) have been used for this analysis. In addition, laboratory scale processing has been undertaken to compare product distribution from fast and slow pyrolysis at 500 °C. Fast pyrolysis was carried out using a 1 kg/h continuous bubbling fluidized bed reactor, and slow pyrolysis using a 100 g batch reactor. Findings from this study show that heating rate and pyrolysis temperatures have a significant influence on the chemical content of decomposition products. From the analytical sequential pyrolysis, an inverse relationship was seen between the total yield of furfural (at high heating rates) and 2-furanmethanol (at low heating rates). The total yield of 1,2-dihydroxybenzene (catechol) was found to be significant higher at low heating rates. The intermediates of catechol, 2-methoxy-4-(2-propenyl)phenol (eugenol); 2-methoxyphenol (guaiacol); 4-Hydroxy-3,5-dimethoxybenzaldehyde (syringaldehyde) and 4-hydroxy-3-methoxybenzaldehyde (vanillin), were found to be highest at high heating rates. It was also found that laboratory scale processing alters the pyrolysis bio-oil chemical composition, and the proportions of pyrolysis product yields. The GC-MS/FID analysis of fast and slow pyrolysis bio-oils reveals significant differences. © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.