Hidden state models for time series

Amongst all the objectives in the study of time series, uncovering the dynamic law of its generation is probably the most important. When the underlying dynamics are not available, time series modelling consists of developing a model which best explains a sequence of observations. In this thesis, we consider hidden space models for analysing and describing time series. We first provide an introduction to the principal concepts of hidden state models and draw an analogy between hidden Markov models and state space models. Central ideas such as hidden state inference or parameter estimation are reviewed in detail. A key part of multivariate time series analysis is identifying the delay between different variables. We present a novel approach for time delay estimating in a non-stationary environment. The technique makes use of hidden Markov models and we demonstrate its application for estimating a crucial parameter in the oil industry. We then focus on hybrid models that we call dynamical local models. These models combine and generalise hidden Markov models and state space models. Probabilistic inference is unfortunately computationally intractable and we show how to make use of variational techniques for approximating the posterior distribution over the hidden state variables. Experimental simulations on synthetic and real-world data demonstrate the application of dynamical local models for segmenting a time series into regimes and providing predictive distributions.

Farewell, welfare state – hello, welfare regions? Chances and constraints of welfare management in the German federal system

The German welfare state is in crisis. Alarming long-term demographic trends, the still not fully digested consequences of German unification and the current economic downturn in much of the Eurozone have combined to create an urgent need for welfare reform. Yet the constitutional arrangements which govern the German political system, and well-entrenched political practice, mean that any such reform process is a daunting challenge. Thus, the welfare crisis is also a crisis of German-style co-operative federalism. Current empirical evidence makes for uncomfortable reading, and triggers debate on the nature of the German federation: have the two constitutional principles of federalism and establishing equal living conditions throughout the federation become mutually exclusive? However, as much of the welfare state is centred on the best utilisation of scarce financial resources, it is debatable to what extent alterations in the functional distribution of welfare responsibilities among the territorial levels of government can be regarded as a solution for the current problems. The article concludes that in the search for long-term sustainability of the welfare state the territorial dimension is likely to remain a secondary issue.

Modelling data and voice traffic over IP networks using continuous-time Markov models

Common approaches to IP-traffic modelling have featured the use of stochastic models, based on the Markov property, which can be classified into black box and white box models based on the approach used for modelling traffic. White box models, are simple to understand, transparent and have a physical meaning attributed to each of the associated parameters. To exploit this key advantage, this thesis explores the use of simple classic continuous-time Markov models based on a white box approach, to model, not only the network traffic statistics but also the source behaviour with respect to the network and application. The thesis is divided into two parts: The first part focuses on the use of simple Markov and Semi-Markov traffic models, starting from the simplest two-state model moving upwards to n-state models with Poisson and non-Poisson statistics. The thesis then introduces the convenient to use, mathematically derived, Gaussian Markov models which are used to model the measured network IP traffic statistics. As one of the most significant contributions, the thesis establishes the significance of the second-order density statistics as it reveals that, in contrast to first-order density, they carry much more unique information on traffic sources and behaviour. The thesis then exploits the use of Gaussian Markov models to model these unique features and finally shows how the use of simple classic Markov models coupled with use of second-order density statistics provides an excellent tool for capturing maximum traffic detail, which in itself is the essence of good traffic modelling. The second part of the thesis, studies the ON-OFF characteristics of VoIP traffic with reference to accurate measurements of the ON and OFF periods, made from a large multi-lingual database of over 100 hours worth of VoIP call recordings. The impact of the language, prosodic structure and speech rate of the speaker on the statistics of the ON-OFF periods is analysed and relevant conclusions are presented. Finally, an ON-OFF VoIP source model with log-normal transitions is contributed as an ideal candidate to model VoIP traffic and the results of this model are compared with those of previously published work.

The local dimension of employment-related welfare policy in Germany, England and Sweden

The link between work and welfare is a key pathway of modern welfare state development in Western Europe. National governments face a constant balancing act between the welfare expectations of the labour forces and the labour market liberalisation demands of the business communities. Facilitating the transit from welfare into employment has therefore become an important tool for the British, German and Swedish governments, providing labour as and when needed while keeping welfare expenditure in check. However, the approaches to organising active labour market policies are quite different, notably with regard to the territorial dimension. Although labour markets are quite diverse in all three cases, the role of local authorities, local agencies and local labour market actors from the private and voluntary sector are generally under-developed and apparently under-appreciated, but in different ways and for different reasons. The article compares current employment-related welfare provisions and approaches to develop active labour market policies in the three countries, and concludes that while certain structural and procedural similarities exist, the basic political priorities and actual support and services provided remain very far apart.

The politics of the new Germany

The Politics of the New Germany takes a new approach to understanding politics in the post-unification Federal Republic. Assuming only elementary knowledge, it focuses on debates and issues in order to help students understand both the workings of Germany's key institutions and some of the key policy challenges facing German politicians. Written in a straightforward style by four experts, each of the chapters draws on a rich variety of real-world examples. Packed with boxed summaries of key points, a guide to further reading and a range of seminar questions for discussion at the end of each chapter, this book highlights both the challenges and opportunities facing policy-makers in such areas as foreign affairs, economic policy, immigration, identity politics and institutional reforms. The book also takes a bird's-eye view of the big debates that define German politics over time, regardless of which party happens to be in power. It pinpoints three key themes that have characterised German politics over the last sixty years; reconciliation, consensus and transformation. Table of Contents: Introduction 1. Germany and the Burden of History 2. Germany’s Post-War Development, 1945-1989 3. Towards German Unity? 4. A Blockaded System of Government? 5. The Party System and Electoral Behaviour: The Path to Stable Instability? 6. Economic Management: The End of the German Model? 7. Citizenship and Demographics: A Country of Immigration? 8. The Reform of the Welfare State? 9. Germany and the European Union: A European Germany or a German Europe? 10. Foreign and Security Policy: A New Role for the Twenty-First Century? 11. Conclusion

Social policy in the UK

Social policy is a very complex area, and this chapter has only offered a brief summary of the most significant recent changes to the UK welfare state. Social policy expenditure has fluctuated over time, with considerable increases through the late 1990s and 2000s, but reductions planned in many areas by the current Coalition Government. The UK welfare state has slowly come to terms with women’s engagement in the labour market, but failed to overcome the persistent inequality between male and female incomes. While competition and choice have been introduced in many areas of the welfare state, their impacts have been varied and contested. Aside from health and education, UK social policy has become increasingly ‘residualised’, with many transfers now means-tested and services like social housing becoming less widely available. At the same time, however, different patterns can be observed across the UK, particularly in the fields of social care and education, where different arrangements apply in different nations. Future developments in social policy are likely to be shaped by the challenge of an ageing population, and the recently hardened public attitude towards particular groups of social policy beneficiaries.

The making of an ideology of the third way:the evolution of christian democracy in Germany (with special reference to 1945-49)

This study investigates the search for the third way in the history of German Christian Democracy. Today, in the United Kingdom, the 'third way' is seen as a new phenomenon, a synthesis of post-war belief in the welfare state and neo-liberal conservatism. Yet it insufficiently acknowledges that the origins of third way thinking, the marriage of social justice with free market economics, of individualism with collective responsibility, are found in the early philosophies of Catholic Social Theory and Protestant Social Ethical Teaching in Germany. This study shows that in the hundred years from the 1840s to the end of the 1940s, there were Catholic and Protestant socio-ethical thinkers and political reformists in Germany who attempted to bridge the philosophical differences between liberalism and socialism, to develop a socio-economic order based on Christian moral values. It will focus on the period 1945-1949, when the CDU was founded as the first interdenominational, Christian party. The study provides the first comprehensive account of the political debates in Christian democratic groups in the Soviet, British, French and American allied occupied zones, also giving equal attention to the contribution from the Protestant wing, alongside the more widely acknowledged role of Catholics in the birth of the CDU. It examines how Christian Democrats envisaged correcting the aberrations of German history, by uniting all social classes and Christian religions in one all-embracing Volkspartei, and transforming party politics from its earlier obsession with sectarian and ideological interests towards a more pragmatic 'third way' programme. The study argues that through the making of its ideology, the CDU modified the nation's understanding of its history, re-interpreted its traditions, and redefined the meaning and perception of established political philosophies. This reveals how the ambiguity of political terminology, and the flexible practice of 'third way' politics, were an invaluable political resource in the CDU's campaign for unity, ideological legitimisation and political power.

The grip of personalization in adult social care:between managerial domination and fantasy

This paper examines the 'ideological grip' of personalization. It does so empirically, tracking the trajectory of personalization through austerity budgeting in one English local authority. In this case, personalization continued to signify hope and liberation even though the most draconian cuts in the Council's history effectively rendered personalization a practical impossibility. This requires critical theorization. Two bodies of theory are interrogated. First Boltanski's sociology of critique, and, in particular, his notion of managerial domination illuminate the way in which change imperatives and crises come to cement ideological formations. Here it is argued that the articulation of personalization with transformation lends itself to managerial domination. It is further argued, though, that while institutional actors may be able to manipulate the symbolic to evade, what Boltanski terms, deconstructionist critique, this cannot entirely explain the hold of this particular discourse. Here, the Lacanian concept of enjoyment is deployed to interrogate its extra-symbolic function and fantasmatic form. Finally, the paper explores the political implications of such affective attachment and, in particular, the guarantee that personalization offers in a period of welfare state decline. © The Author(s) 2012.

Europa i świat zachodni:szkodliwe dla gospodarki niedostrzegane lub lekceważone zjawiska

The paper presents an abbreviated version of the second part of the report on problems of Europe, prepared by a team of teachers at the University of Information Technology and Management in Rzeszow, Poland. We stress therein that the hotly debated problems of the Eurozone and the global financial crisis and its aftermath are, at best, medium-term ones, while real issues Europe faces are of the long-term nature and result from policies pursued for decades. Their consequences are also long-term – and increasingly harmful. Our diagnosis is as follows. Long-term problems related to the increasing burden of the welfare state and its side effects, like the slowing economic growth rate, are not subject to serious policy debates. It applies to both traditional elites from parties belonging to the moderate political spectrum, and to anti-elites on both extremes. Both elites and anti-elites reject the reality as a starting point to developing corrective policy measures. Our economic analysis has revealed that incentives to create wealth in old Western countries have been weakening for a long time. Yet, without deep cuts in public (especially welfare) expenditures and accompanying institutional reforms, economic performance of European (and generally Western) economies is going to worsen over time. The chances of continued stagnation in the next 5–10 years are very high. Finally, we look at the socio-psychological behavioral framework of the ever-expanding welfare state. We point at the phenomenon of the learned helplessness which appears as a result of the people’s lacking perception of linkages between their actions and economic results of these actions. We interpret it as a consequence of the welfare state. It further weakens the prospects for successful reforms and the resultant avoidance of the long-term stagnation.

Understanding the transformation of Germany's CDU

This book analyses the Christian Democratic Union of Germany (CDU), one of Europe’s most successful and influential political parties. The CDU might have been expected to struggle in the circumstances of a more diverse, secular reunified Germany, yet it has prospered to an extent almost unparalleled in western Europe. Chapters consider the CDU’s policies (the factors driving them, their variation across Germany, the relationship to women, and the welfare state), its organisational development and change, and its position within the party system. Contributors particularly emphasise the diversity of the CDU, and the way it varies across Germany’s regions. The CDU is compared to other Christian Democratic parties, and special consideration is given to the CDU’s Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union (CSU). This book was published as a special issue of German Politics.

Modelling financial time series with switching state space models

The deficiencies of stationary models applied to financial time series are well documented. A special form of non-stationarity, where the underlying generator switches between (approximately) stationary regimes, seems particularly appropriate for financial markets. We use a dynamic switching (modelled by a hidden Markov model) combined with a linear dynamical system in a hybrid switching state space model (SSSM) and discuss the practical details of training such models with a variational EM algorithm due to [Ghahramani and Hilton,1998]. The performance of the SSSM is evaluated on several financial data sets and it is shown to improve on a number of existing benchmark methods.