Web based expert elicitation of uncertainties in environmental model inputs

When constructing and using environmental models, it is typical that many of the inputs to the models will not be known perfectly. In some cases, it will be possible to make observations, or occasionally physics-based uncertainty propagation, to ascertain the uncertainty on these inputs. However, such observations are often either not available or even possible, and another approach to characterising the uncertainty on the inputs must be sought. Even when observations are available, if the analysis is being carried out within a Bayesian framework then prior distributions will have to be specified. One option for gathering or at least estimating this information is to employ expert elicitation. Expert elicitation is well studied within statistics and psychology and involves the assessment of the beliefs of a group of experts about an uncertain quantity, (for example an input / parameter within a model), typically in terms of obtaining a probability distribution. One of the challenges in expert elicitation is to minimise the biases that might enter into the judgements made by the individual experts, and then to come to a consensus decision within the group of experts. Effort is made in the elicitation exercise to prevent biases clouding the judgements through well-devised questioning schemes. It is also important that, when reaching a consensus, the experts are exposed to the knowledge of the others in the group. Within the FP7 UncertWeb project (http://www.uncertweb.org/), there is a requirement to build a Webbased tool for expert elicitation. In this paper, we discuss some of the issues of building a Web-based elicitation system - both the technological aspects and the statistical and scientific issues. In particular, we demonstrate two tools: a Web-based system for the elicitation of continuous random variables and a system designed to elicit uncertainty about categorical random variables in the setting of landcover classification uncertainty. The first of these examples is a generic tool developed to elicit uncertainty about univariate continuous random variables. It is designed to be used within an application context and extends the existing SHELF method, adding a web interface and access to metadata. The tool is developed so that it can be readily integrated with environmental models exposed as web services. The second example was developed for the TREES-3 initiative which monitors tropical landcover change through ground-truthing at confluence points. It allows experts to validate the accuracy of automated landcover classifications using site-specific imagery and local knowledge. Experts may provide uncertainty information at various levels: from a general rating of their confidence in a site validation to a numerical ranking of the possible landcover types within a segment. A key challenge in the web based setting is the design of the user interface and the method of interacting between the problem owner and the problem experts. We show the workflow of the elicitation tool, and show how we can represent the final elicited distributions and confusion matrices using UncertML, ready for integration into uncertainty enabled workflows.We also show how the metadata associated with the elicitation exercise is captured and can be referenced from the elicited result, providing crucial lineage information and thus traceability in the decision making process.

Internet banking service quality:an investigation of interrelationships between construct dimensions

Service quality measurement in Internet banking services is an area of growing interest to researchers and managers. This research investigates the interrelationships between the dimensions comprising the Internet banking service quality construct through structural equation modelling. Five Internet service quality dimensions are identified: access, web interface, trust, attention and credibility. Credibility is modelled as an outcome of the causal variables of access, web interface, trust and attention. Trust and attention emerges as key dimensions in explaining the credibility dimension. Access is found to be a common antecedent of trust, attention and Web interface dimensions. Implications from the findings are offered.

Issues in creating a corpus for EAP pedagogy and research

UK universities are accepting increasing numbers of students whose L1 is not English on a wide range of programmes at all levels. These students require additional support and training in English, focussing on their academic disciplines. Corpora have been used in EAP since the 1980s, mainly for research, but a growing number of researchers and practitioners have been advocating the use of corpora in EAP pedagogy, and such use is gradually increasing. This paper outlines the processes and factors to be considered in the design and compilation of an EAP corpus (e.g., the selection and acquisition of texts, metadata, data annotation, software tools and outputs, web interface, and screen displays), especially one intended to be used for teaching. Such a corpus would also facilitate EAP research in terms of longitudinal studies, student progression and development, and course and materials design. The paper has been informed by the preparatory work on the EAP subcorpus of the ACORN corpus project at Aston University. © 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Are web designers resisting the inclusion of social cues when creating website user interface?

Using the resistance literature as an underpinning theoretical framework, this chapter analyzes how Web designers through their daily practices, (i) adopt recursive, adaptive, and resisting behavior regarding the inclusion of social cues online and (ii) shape the socio-technical power relationship between designers and other stakeholders. Five vignettes in the form of case studies with expert individual Web designers are used. Findings point out at three types of emerging resistance namely: market driven resistance, ideological resistance, and functional resistance. In addition, a series of propositions are provided linking the various themes. Furthermore, the authors suggest that stratification in Web designers’ type is occurring and that resistance offers a novel lens to analyze the debate.

AquaLog : an ontology-driven question answering system to interface the semantic web

The semantic web (SW) vision is one in which rich, ontology-based semantic markup will become widely available. The availability of semantic markup on the web opens the way to novel, sophisticated forms of question answering. AquaLog is a portable question-answering system which takes queries expressed in natural language (NL) and an ontology as input, and returns answers drawn from one or more knowledge bases (KB). AquaLog presents an elegant solution in which different strategies are combined together in a novel way. AquaLog novel ontology-based relation similarity service makes sense of user queries.

Towards a web-based progressive handwriting recognition environment for mathematical problem solving

The emergence of pen-based mobile devices such as PDAs and tablet PCs provides a new way to input mathematical expressions to computer by using handwriting which is much more natural and efficient for entering mathematics. This paper proposes a web-based handwriting mathematics system, called WebMath, for supporting mathematical problem solving. The proposed WebMath system is based on client-server architecture. It comprises four major components: a standard web server, handwriting mathematical expression editor, computation engine and web browser with Ajax-based communicator. The handwriting mathematical expression editor adopts a progressive recognition approach for dynamic recognition of handwritten mathematical expressions. The computation engine supports mathematical functions such as algebraic simplification and factorization, and integration and differentiation. The web browser provides a user-friendly interface for accessing the system using advanced Ajax-based communication. In this paper, we describe the different components of the WebMath system and its performance analysis.

Uncertainty analysis in the Model Web

This thesis provides a set of tools for managing uncertainty in Web-based models and workflows.To support the use of these tools, this thesis firstly provides a framework for exposing models through Web services. An introduction to uncertainty management, Web service interfaces,and workflow standards and technologies is given, with a particular focus on the geospatial domain.An existing specification for exposing geospatial models and processes, theWeb Processing Service (WPS), is critically reviewed. A processing service framework is presented as a solutionto usability issues with the WPS standard. The framework implements support for Simple ObjectAccess Protocol (SOAP), Web Service Description Language (WSDL) and JavaScript Object Notation (JSON), allowing models to be consumed by a variety of tools and software. Strategies for communicating with models from Web service interfaces are discussed, demonstrating the difficultly of exposing existing models on the Web. This thesis then reviews existing mechanisms for uncertainty management, with an emphasis on emulator methods for building efficient statistical surrogate models. A tool is developed to solve accessibility issues with such methods, by providing a Web-based user interface and backend to ease the process of building and integrating emulators. These tools, plus the processing service framework, are applied to a real case study as part of the UncertWeb project. The usability of the framework is proved with the implementation of aWeb-based workflow for predicting future crop yields in the UK, also demonstrating the abilities of the tools for emulator building and integration. Future directions for the development of the tools are discussed.

PPD v1.0 - an integrated, web-accessible database of experimentally determined protein pKa values

The Protein pKa Database (PPD) v1.0 provides a compendium of protein residue-specific ionization equilibria (pKa values), as collated from the primary literature, in the form of a web-accessible postgreSQL relational database. Ionizable residues play key roles in the molecular mechanisms that underlie many biological phenomena, including protein folding and enzyme catalysis. The PPD serves as a general protein pKa archive and as a source of data that allows for the development and improvement of pKa prediction systems. The database is accessed through an HTML interface, which offers two fast, efficient search methods: an amino acid-based query and a Basic Local Alignment Search Tool search. Entries also give details of experimental techniques and links to other key databases, such as National Center for Biotechnology Information and the Protein Data Bank, providing the user with considerable background information.

Integrating service user and practitioner expertise within a web-based system for collaborative mental-health risk and safety management

Objectives: To develop a decision support system (DSS), myGRaCE, that integrates service user (SU) and practitioner expertise about mental health and associated risks of suicide, self-harm, harm to others, self-neglect, and vulnerability. The intention is to help SUs assess and manage their own mental health collaboratively with practitioners. Methods: An iterative process involving interviews, focus groups, and agile software development with 115 SUs, to elicit and implement myGRaCE requirements. Results: Findings highlight shared understanding of mental health risk between SUs and practitioners that can be integrated within a single model. However, important differences were revealed in SUs' preferred process of assessing risks and safety, which are reflected in the distinctive interface, navigation, tool functionality and language developed for myGRaCE. A challenge was how to provide flexible access without overwhelming and confusing users. Conclusion: The methods show that practitioner expertise can be reformulated in a format that simultaneously captures SU expertise, to provide a tool highly valued by SUs. A stepped process adds necessary structure to the assessment, each step with its own feedback and guidance. Practice Implications: The GRiST web-based DSS (www.egrist.org) links and integrates myGRaCE self-assessments with GRiST practitioner assessments for supporting collaborative and self-managed healthcare.