Combining the wavelet transform and forecasting models to predict gas forward prices

This paper presents a forecasting technique for forward energy prices, one day ahead. This technique combines a wavelet transform and forecasting models such as multi- layer perceptron, linear regression or GARCH. These techniques are applied to real data from the UK gas markets to evaluate their performance. The results show that the forecasting accuracy is improved significantly by using the wavelet transform. The methodology can be also applied to forecasting market clearing prices and electricity/gas loads.

A generative probabilistic oriented wavelet model for texture segmentation

This Letter addresses image segmentation via a generative model approach. A Bayesian network (BNT) in the space of dyadic wavelet transform coefficients is introduced to model texture images. The model is similar to a Hidden Markov model (HMM), but with non-stationary transitive conditional probability distributions. It is composed of discrete hidden variables and observable Gaussian outputs for wavelet coefficients. In particular, the Gabor wavelet transform is considered. The introduced model is compared with the simplest joint Gaussian probabilistic model for Gabor wavelet coefficients for several textures from the Brodatz album [1]. The comparison is based on cross-validation and includes probabilistic model ensembles instead of single models. In addition, the robustness of the models to cope with additive Gaussian noise is investigated. We further study the feasibility of the introduced generative model for image segmentation in the novelty detection framework [2]. Two examples are considered: (i) sea surface pollution detection from intensity images and (ii) image segmentation of the still images with varying illumination across the scene.

Short-term electricity demand and gas price forecasts using wavelet transforms and adaptive models

This paper presents some forecasting techniques for energy demand and price prediction, one day ahead. These techniques combine wavelet transform (WT) with fixed and adaptive machine learning/time series models (multi-layer perceptron (MLP), radial basis functions, linear regression, or GARCH). To create an adaptive model, we use an extended Kalman filter or particle filter to update the parameters continuously on the test set. The adaptive GARCH model is a new contribution, broadening the applicability of GARCH methods. We empirically compared two approaches of combining the WT with prediction models: multicomponent forecasts and direct forecasts. These techniques are applied to large sets of real data (both stationary and non-stationary) from the UK energy markets, so as to provide comparative results that are statistically stronger than those previously reported. The results showed that the forecasting accuracy is significantly improved by using the WT and adaptive models. The best models on the electricity demand/gas price forecast are the adaptive MLP/GARCH with the multicomponent forecast; their MSEs are 0.02314 and 0.15384 respectively.

From cardinal spline wavelet bases to highly coherent dictionaries

Wavelet families arise by scaling and translations of a prototype function, called the mother wavelet. The construction of wavelet bases for cardinal spline spaces is generally carried out within the multi-resolution analysis scheme. Thus, the usual way of increasing the dimension of the multi-resolution subspaces is by augmenting the scaling factor. We show here that, when working on a compact interval, the identical effect can be achieved without changing the wavelet scale but reducing the translation parameter. By such a procedure we generate a redundant frame, called a dictionary, spanning the same spaces as a wavelet basis but with wavelets of broader support. We characterize the correlation of the dictionary elements by measuring their 'coherence' and produce examples illustrating the relevance of highly coherent dictionaries to problems of sparse signal representation.

The detection of p-waves in ambulatory ECG recordings by the use of wavelet transforms

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Rotation invariant iris feature extraction using Gaussian Markov random fields with non-separable wavelet

Rotation invariance is important for an iris recognition system since changes of head orientation and binocular vergence may cause eye rotation. The conventional methods of iris recognition cannot achieve true rotation invariance. They only achieve approximate rotation invariance by rotating the feature vector before matching or unwrapping the iris ring at different initial angles. In these methods, the complexity of the method is increased, and when the rotation scale is beyond the certain scope, the error rates of these methods may substantially increase. In order to solve this problem, a new rotation invariant approach for iris feature extraction based on the non-separable wavelet is proposed in this paper. Firstly, a bank of non-separable orthogonal wavelet filters is used to capture characteristics of the iris. Secondly, a method of Markov random fields is used to capture rotation invariant iris feature. Finally, two-class kernel Fisher classifiers are adopted for classification. Experimental results on public iris databases show that the proposed approach has a low error rate and achieves true rotation invariance. © 2010.

Wavelet packet decomposition-based fault diagnosis scheme for SRM drives with a single current sensor

Power converters are a key, but vulnerable component in switched reluctance motor (SRM) drives. In this paper, a new fault diagnosis scheme for SRM converters is proposed based on the wavelet packet decomposition (WPD) with a dc-link current sensor. Open- and short-circuit faults of the power switches in an asymmetrical half-bridge converter are analyzed in details. In order to obtain the fault signature from the phase currents, two pulse-width modulation signals with phase shift are injected into the lower-switches of the converter to extract the excitation current, and the WPD algorithm is then applied to the detected currents for fault diagnosis. Moreover, a discrete degree of the wavelet packet node energy is chosen as the fault coefficient. The converter faults can be diagnosed and located directly by determining the changes in the discrete degree from the detected currents. The proposed scheme requires only one current sensor in the dc link, while conventional methods need one sensor for each phase or additional detection circuits. The experimental results on a 750-W three-phase SRM are presented to confirm the effectiveness of the proposed fault diagnosis scheme.

Cortical oscillatory activity associated with the perception of illusory and real visual contours

We used magnetoencephalography (MEG) to examine the nature of oscillatory brain rhythms when passively viewing both illusory and real visual contours. Three stimuli were employed: a Kanizsa triangle; a Kanizsa triangle with a real triangular contour superimposed; and a control figure in which the corner elements used to form the Kanizsa triangle were rotated to negate the formation of illusory contours. The MEG data were analysed using synthetic aperture magnetometry (SAM) to enable the spatial localisation of task-related oscillatory power changes within specific frequency bands, and the time-course of activity within given locations-of-interest was determined by calculating time-frequency plots using a Morlet wavelet transform. In contrast to earlier studies, we did not find increases in gamma activity (> 30 Hz) to illusory shapes, but instead a decrease in 10–30 Hz activity approximately 200 ms after stimulus presentation. The reduction in oscillatory activity was primarily evident within extrastriate areas, including the lateral occipital complex (LOC). Importantly, this same pattern of results was evident for each stimulus type. Our results further highlight the importance of the LOC and a network of posterior brain regions in processing visual contours, be they illusory or real in nature. The similarity of the results for both real and illusory contours, however, leads us to conclude that the broadband (< 30 Hz) decrease in power we observed is more likely to reflect general changes in visual attention than neural computations specific to processing visual contours.

Investigating the functional properties of the somatosensory cortex during experimental visceral pain using magnetoencephalography

Background The somatosensory cortex has been inconsistently activated in pain studies and the functional properties of subregions within this cortical area are poorly understood. To address this we used magnetoencephalography (MEG), a brain imaging technique capable of recording changes in cortical neural activity in real-time, to investigate the functional properties of the somatosensory cortex during different phases of the visceral pain experience. Methods In eight participants (4 male), 151-channel whole cortex MEG was used to detect cortical neural activity during 25 trials lasting 20 seconds each. Each trial comprised four separate periods of 5 seconds in duration. During each of the periods, different visual cues were presented, indicating that period 1=rest, period 2=anticipation, period 3=pain and period 4=post pain. During period 3, participants received painful oesophageal balloon distensions (four at 1 Hz). Regions of cortical activity were identified using Synthetic Aperture Magnetometry (SAM) and by the placement of virtual electrodes in regions of interest within the somatosensory cortex, time-frequency wavelet plots were generated. Results SAM analysis revealed significant activation with the primary (S1) and secondary (S2) somatosensory cortices. The time-frequency wavelet spectrograms showed that activation in S1 increased during the anticipation phase and continued during the presentation of the stimulus. In S2, activation was tightly time and phase-locked to the stimulus within the pain period. Activations in both regions predominantly occurred within the 10–15 Hz and 20–30 Hz frequency bandwidths. Discussion These data are consistent with the role of S1 and S2 in the sensory discriminatory aspects of pain processing. Activation of S1 during anticipation and then pain may be linked to its proposed role in attentional as well as sensory processing. The stimulus-related phasic activity seen in S2 demonstrates that this region predominantly encodes information pertaining to the nature and intensity of the stimulus.

Dissociating the spatio-temporal characteristics of cortical neuronal activity associated with human volitional swallowing in the healthy adult brain

Human swallowing represents a complex highly coordinated sensorimotor function whose functional neuroanatomy remains incompletely understood. Specifically, previous studies have failed to delineate the temporo-spatial sequence of those cerebral loci active during the differing phases of swallowing. We therefore sought to define the temporal characteristics of cortical activity associated with human swallowing behaviour using a novel application of magnetoencephalography (MEG). In healthy volunteers (n = 8, aged 28-45), 151-channel whole cortex MEG was recorded during the conditions of oral water infusion, volitional wet swallowing (5 ml bolus), tongue thrust or rest. Each condition lasted for 5 s and was repeated 20 times. Synthetic aperture magnetometry (SAM) analysis was performed on each active epoch and compared to rest. Temporal sequencing of brain activations utilised time-frequency wavelet plots of regions selected using virtual electrodes. Following SAM analysis, water infusion preferentially activated the caudolateral sensorimotor cortex, whereas during volitional swallowing and tongue movement, the superior sensorimotor cortex was more strongly active. Time-frequency wavelet analysis indicated that sensory input from the tongue simultaneously activated caudolateral sensorimotor and primary gustatory cortex, which appeared to prime the superior sensory and motor cortical areas, involved in the volitional phase of swallowing. Our data support the existence of a temporal synchrony across the whole cortical swallowing network, with sensory input from the tongue being critical. Thus, the ability to non-invasively image this network, with intra-individual and high temporal resolution, provides new insights into the brain processing of human swallowing. © 2004 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Techniques to improve forecasting models: applications to energy demand and price

This thesis is a study of three techniques to improve performance of some standard fore-casting models, application to the energy demand and prices. We focus on forecasting demand and price one-day ahead. First, the wavelet transform was used as a pre-processing procedure with two approaches: multicomponent-forecasts and direct-forecasts. We have empirically compared these approaches and found that the former consistently outperformed the latter. Second, adaptive models were introduced to continuously update model parameters in the testing period by combining ?lters with standard forecasting methods. Among these adaptive models, the adaptive LR-GARCH model was proposed for the fi?rst time in the thesis. Third, with regard to noise distributions of the dependent variables in the forecasting models, we used either Gaussian or Student-t distributions. This thesis proposed a novel algorithm to infer parameters of Student-t noise models. The method is an extension of earlier work for models that are linear in parameters to the non-linear multilayer perceptron. Therefore, the proposed method broadens the range of models that can use a Student-t noise distribution. Because these techniques cannot stand alone, they must be combined with prediction models to improve their performance. We combined these techniques with some standard forecasting models: multilayer perceptron, radial basis functions, linear regression, and linear regression with GARCH. These techniques and forecasting models were applied to two datasets from the UK energy markets: daily electricity demand (which is stationary) and gas forward prices (non-stationary). The results showed that these techniques provided good improvement to prediction performance.

Grayscale and colour image Codec based on matching pursuit in the spatio-frequency domain

This report presents and evaluates a novel idea for scalable lossy colour image coding with Matching Pursuit (MP) performed in a transform domain. The benefits of the idea of MP performed in the transform domain are analysed in detail. The main contribution of this work is extending MP with wavelets to colour coding and proposing a coding method. We exploit correlations between image subbands after wavelet transformation in RGB colour space. Then, a new and simple quantisation and coding scheme of colour MP decomposition based on Run Length Encoding (RLE), inspired by the idea of coding indexes in relational databases, is applied. As a final coding step arithmetic coding is used assuming uniform distributions of MP atom parameters. The target application is compression at low and medium bit-rates. Coding performance is compared to JPEG 2000 showing the potential to outperform the latter with more sophisticated than uniform data models for arithmetic coder. The results are presented for grayscale and colour coding of 12 standard test images.

Functional source separation applied to induced visual gamma activity

Objective of this work was to explore the performance of a recently introduced source extraction method, FSS (Functional Source Separation), in recovering induced oscillatory change responses from extra-cephalic magnetoencephalographic (MEG) signals. Unlike algorithms used to solve the inverse problem, FSS does not make any assumption about the underlying biophysical source model; instead, it makes use of task-related features (functional constraints) to estimate source/s of interest. FSS was compared with blind source separation (BSS) approaches such as Principal and Independent Component Analysis, PCA and ICA, which are not subject to any explicit forward solution or functional constraint, but require source uncorrelatedness (PCA), or independence (ICA). A visual MEG experiment with signals recorded from six subjects viewing a set of static horizontal black/white square-wave grating patterns at different spatial frequencies was analyzed. The beamforming technique Synthetic Aperture Magnetometry (SAM) was applied to localize task-related sources; obtained spatial filters were used to automatically select BSS and FSS components in the spatial area of interest. Source spectral properties were investigated by using Morlet-wavelet time-frequency representations and significant task-induced changes were evaluated by means of a resampling technique; the resulting spectral behaviours in the gamma frequency band of interest (20-70 Hz), as well as the spatial frequency-dependent gamma reactivity, were quantified and compared among methods. Among the tested approaches, only FSS was able to estimate the expected sustained gamma activity enhancement in primary visual cortex, throughout the whole duration of the stimulus presentation for all subjects, and to obtain sources comparable to invasively recorded data.

The spatial distribution and temporal dynamics of brain regions activated during the perception of object and non-object patterns

Both animal and human studies suggest that the efficiency with which we are able to grasp objects is attributable to a repertoire of motor signals derived directly from vision. This is in general agreement with the long-held belief that the automatic generation of motor signals by the perception of objects is based on the actions they afford. In this study, we used magnetoencephalography (MEG) to determine the spatial distribution and temporal dynamics of brain regions activated during passive viewing of object and non-object targets that varied in the extent to which they afforded a grasping action. Synthetic Aperture Magnetometry (SAM) was used to localize task-related oscillatory power changes within specific frequency bands, and the time course of activity within given regions-of-interest was determined by calculating time-frequency plots using a Morlet wavelet transform. Both single subject and group-averaged data on the spatial distribution of brain activity are presented. We show that: (i) significant reductions in 10-25 Hz activity within extrastriate cortex, occipito-temporal cortex, sensori-motor cortex and cerebellum were evident with passive viewing of both objects and non-objects; and (ii) reductions in oscillatory activity within the posterior part of the superior parietal cortex (area Ba7) were only evident with the perception of objects. Assuming that focal reductions in low-frequency oscillations (< 30 Hz) reflect areas of heightened neural activity, we conclude that: (i) activity within a network of brain areas, including the sensori-motor cortex, is not critically dependent on stimulus type and may reflect general changes in visual attention; and (ii) the posterior part of the superior parietal cortex, area Ba7, is activated preferentially by objects and may play a role in computations related to grasping. © 2006 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Colour image coding with matching pursuit in the spatio-frequency domain

We present and evaluate a novel idea for scalable lossy colour image coding with Matching Pursuit (MP) performed in a transform domain. The idea is to exploit correlations in RGB colour space between image subbands after wavelet transformation rather than in the spatial domain. We propose a simple quantisation and coding scheme of colour MP decomposition based on Run Length Encoding (RLE) which can achieve comparable performance to JPEG 2000 even though the latter utilises careful data modelling at the coding stage. Thus, the obtained image representation has the potential to outperform JPEG 2000 with a more sophisticated coding algorithm.