Calculating the balance between water resources and water demands:an approach using risk analysis

Predicting future need for water resources has traditionally been, at best, a crude mixture of art and science. This has prevented the evaluation of water need from being carried out in either a consistent or comprehensive manner. This inconsistent and somewhat arbitrary approach to water resources planning led to well publicised premature developments in the 1970's and 1980's but privatisation of the Water Industry, including creation of the Office of Water Services and the National Rivers Authority in 1989, turned the tide of resource planning to the point where funding of schemes and their justification by the Regulators could no longer be assumed. Furthermore, considerable areas of uncertainty were beginning to enter the debate and complicate the assessment It was also no longer appropriate to consider that contingencies would continue to lie solely on the demand side of the equation. An inability to calculate the balance between supply and demand may mean an inability to meet standards of service or, arguably worse, an excessive provision of water resources and excessive costs to customers. United Kingdom Water Industry Research limited (UKWlR) Headroom project in 1998 provided a simple methodology for the calculation of planning margins. This methodology, although well received, was not, however, accepted by the Regulators as a tool sufficient to promote resource development. This thesis begins by considering the history of water resource planning in the UK, moving on to discuss events following privatisation of the water industry post·1985. The mid section of the research forms the bulk of original work and provides a scoping exercise which reveals a catalogue of uncertainties prevalent within the supply-demand balance. Each of these uncertainties is considered in terms of materiality, scope, and whether it can be quantified within a risk analysis package. Many of the areas of uncertainty identified would merit further research. A workable, yet robust, methodology for evaluating the balance between water resources and water demands by using a spreadsheet based risk analysis package is presented. The technique involves statistical sampling and simulation such that samples are taken from input distributions on both the supply and demand side of the equation and the imbalance between supply and demand is calculated in the form of an output distribution. The percentiles of the output distribution represent different standards of service to the customer. The model allows dependencies between distributions to be considered, for improved uncertainties to be assessed and for the impact of uncertain solutions to any imbalance to be calculated directly. The method is considered a Significant leap forward in the field of water resource planning.

Water detection in jet fuel using a polymer optical fibre Bragg grating

Water is a common impurity of jet fuel, and can exist in three forms: dissolved in the fuel, as a suspension and as a distinct layer at the bottom of the fuel tank. Water cannot practically be eliminated from fuel but must be kept to a minimum as large quantities can cause engine problems, particularly when frozen, and the interface between water and fuel acts as a breeding ground for biological contaminants. The quantities of dissolved or suspended water are quite small, ranging from about 10 ppm to 150 ppm. This makes the measurement task difficult and there is currently a lack of a convenient, electrically passive system for water-in-fuel monitoring; instead the airlines rely on colorimetric spot tests or simply draining liquid from the bottom of fuel tanks. For all these reason, people have explored different ways to detect water in fuel, however all these approaches have problems, e.g. they may not be electrically passive or they may be sensitive to the refractive index of the fuel. In this paper, we present a simple, direct and sensitive approach involving the use of a polymer optical fibre Bragg grating to detect water in fuel. The principle is that poly(methyl methacrylate) (PMMA) can absorb moisture from its surroundings (up to 2% at 23 °C), leading to both a swelling of the material and an increase in refractive index with a consequent increase in the Bragg wavelength of a grating inscribed in the material.

Land resource requirements for bioenergy in India

This study presents a two stage process to determine suitable areas to grow fuel crops: i) FAO Agro Ecological Zones (AEZ) procedure is applied to four Indian states of different geographical characteristics; and ii) Modelling the growth of candidate crops with GEPIC water and nutrient model, which is used to determine potential yield of candidate crops in areas where irrigation water is brackish or soil is saline. Absence of digital soil maps, paucity of readily available climate data and knowledge of detailed requirements of candidate crops are some of the major problems, of which, a series of detailed maps will evaluate true potential of biofuels in India.