Radial growth of Rhizocarpon section Rhizocarpon lichen thalli over six years at snoqualmie pass in the Cascade Range, Washington State

This article describes a 6-yr study of the radial growth rates (RGR, mm yr-1) of Rhizocarpon section Rhizocarpon thalli on a talus slope at Snoqualmie Pass in the Cascade Range, Washington State, United States (47°27'N; 121°26'W). At the end of the growth period, 32 of a total of 39 thalli had exhibited a positive RGR, and 7 of a total of 39 thalli showed no measurable growth. Mean RGR of all thalli was 0.07 mm yr-1 (range, 0-0.19 mm, SD = 0.06). Analysis of variance suggested no significant variation in RGR in successive growth periods, but significant differences were present both within and between thalli. The slope of a boulder facet did not influence RGR, but growth was affected by aspect, the least growth being observed on north-northwest facets. A plot of RGR against thallus diameter revealed a wide scatter of data points with little evidence for a significant change in growth with thallus size. Hence, the study showed that the RGR of Rhizocarpon thalli at Snoqualmie is extremely slow and highly variable and significantly less than estimates based on lichenometry. To determine the growth curve of a yellow-green Rhizocarpon by direct measurement at such a site would require a large sample of thalli and careful standardization of the species studied, the aspect conditions under which the thalli were measured, and the initial hypothallus width of the thalli. © 2005 Regents of the University of Colorado.

Probabilistic synchronisation of pinning control

This paper is concerned with synchronization of complex stochastic dynamical networks in the presence of noise and functional uncertainty. A probabilistic control method for adaptive synchronization is presented. All required probabilistic models of the network are assumed to be unknown therefore estimated to be dependent on the connectivity strength, the state and control values. Robustness of the probabilistic controller is proved via the Liapunov method. Furthermore, based on the residual error of the network states we introduce the definition of stochastic pinning controllability. A coupled map lattice with spatiotemporal chaos is taken as an example to illustrate all theoretical developments. The theoretical derivation is complemented by its validation on two representative examples.

Fully probabilistic control for stochastic nonlinear control systems with input dependent noise

Robust controllers for nonlinear stochastic systems with functional uncertainties can be consistently designed using probabilistic control methods. In this paper a generalised probabilistic controller design for the minimisation of the Kullback-Leibler divergence between the actual joint probability density function (pdf) of the closed loop control system, and an ideal joint pdf is presented emphasising how the uncertainty can be systematically incorporated in the absence of reliable systems models. To achieve this objective all probabilistic models of the system are estimated from process data using mixture density networks (MDNs) where all the parameters of the estimated pdfs are taken to be state and control input dependent. Based on this dependency of the density parameters on the input values, explicit formulations to the construction of optimal generalised probabilistic controllers are obtained through the techniques of dynamic programming and adaptive critic methods. Using the proposed generalised probabilistic controller, the conditional joint pdfs can be made to follow the ideal ones. A simulation example is used to demonstrate the implementation of the algorithm and encouraging results are obtained.

Optimization of chemical plant simulation using double collocation

A method has been constructed for the solution of a wide range of chemical plant simulation models including differential equations and optimization. Double orthogonal collocation on finite elements is applied to convert the model into an NLP problem that is solved either by the VF 13AD package based on successive quadratic programming, or by the GRG2 package, based on the generalized reduced gradient method. This approach is termed simultaneous optimization and solution strategy. The objective functional can contain integral terms. The state and control variables can have time delays. Equalities and inequalities containing state and control variables can be included into the model as well as algebraic equations and inequalities. The maximum number of independent variables is 2. Problems containing 3 independent variables can be transformed into problems having 2 independent variables using finite differencing. The maximum number of NLP variables and constraints is 1500. The method is also suitable for solving ordinary and partial differential equations. The state functions are approximated by a linear combination of Lagrange interpolation polynomials. The control function can either be approximated by a linear combination of Lagrange interpolation polynomials or by a piecewise constant function over finite elements. The number of internal collocation points can vary by finite elements. The residual error is evaluated at arbitrarily chosen equidistant grid-points, thus enabling the user to check the accuracy of the solution between collocation points, where the solution is exact. The solution functions can be tabulated. There is an option to use control vector parameterization to solve optimization problems containing initial value ordinary differential equations. When there are many differential equations or the upper integration limit should be selected optimally then this approach should be used. The portability of the package has been addressed converting the package from V AX FORTRAN 77 into IBM PC FORTRAN 77 and into SUN SPARC 2000 FORTRAN 77. Computer runs have shown that the method can reproduce optimization problems published in the literature. The GRG2 and the VF I 3AD packages, integrated into the optimization package, proved to be robust and reliable. The package contains an executive module, a module performing control vector parameterization and 2 nonlinear problem solver modules, GRG2 and VF I 3AD. There is a stand-alone module that converts the differential-algebraic optimization problem into a nonlinear programming problem.

From ‘poor parenting’ to micro-management:coalition governance and the sponsorship of arm’s-length bodies in the United Kingdom, 2010–13

The delegation of public tasks to arm’s-length bodies remains a central feature of contemporary reform agendas within both developed and developing countries. The role and capacity of political and administrative principals (i.e. ministers and departments of state) to control the vast network of arm’s-length bodies for which they are formally responsible is therefore a critical issue within and beyond academe. In the run-up to the 2010 General Election in the United Kingdom, the ‘quango conundrum’ emerged as an important theme and all three major parties committed themselves to shift the balance of power back towards ministers and sponsor departments. This article presents the results of the first major research project to track and examine the subsequent reform process. It reveals a stark shift in internal control relationships from the pre-election ‘poor parenting’ model to a far tighter internal situation that is now the focus of complaints by arm’s-length bodies of micro-management. This shift in the balance of power and how it was achieved offers new insights into the interplay between different forms of governance and has significant theoretical and comparative relevance. Points for practitioners: For professionals working in the field of arm’s-length governance, the article offers three key insights. First, that a well-resourced core executive is critical to directing reform given the challenges of implementing reform in a context of austerity. Second, that those implementing reform will also need to take into account the diverse consequences of centrally imposed reform likely to result in different departments with different approaches to arm’s-length governance. Third, that reforming arm’s-length governance can affect the quality of relationships, and those working in the field will need to mitigate these less tangible challenges to ensure success.