First year qualifying report: neural networks for extracting wind vectors from satellite scatterometer data

The ERS-1 Satellite was launched in July 1991 by the European Space Agency into a polar orbit at about km800, carrying a C-band scatterometer. A scatterometer measures the amount of radar back scatter generated by small ripples on the ocean surface induced by instantaneous local winds. Operational methods that extract wind vectors from satellite scatterometer data are based on the local inversion of a forward model, mapping scatterometer observations to wind vectors, by the minimisation of a cost function in the scatterometer measurement space.par This report uses mixture density networks, a principled method for modelling conditional probability density functions, to model the joint probability distribution of the wind vectors given the satellite scatterometer measurements in a single cell (the `inverse' problem). The complexity of the mapping and the structure of the conditional probability density function are investigated by varying the number of units in the hidden layer of the multi-layer perceptron and the number of kernels in the Gaussian mixture model of the mixture density network respectively. The optimal model for networks trained per trace has twenty hidden units and four kernels. Further investigation shows that models trained with incidence angle as an input have results comparable to those models trained by trace. A hybrid mixture density network that incorporates geophysical knowledge of the problem confirms other results that the conditional probability distribution is dominantly bimodal.par The wind retrieval results improve on previous work at Aston, but do not match other neural network techniques that use spatial information in the inputs, which is to be expected given the ambiguity of the inverse problem. Current work uses the local inverse model for autonomous ambiguity removal in a principled Bayesian framework. Future directions in which these models may be improved are given.

Wind power forecasts using Gaussian processes and numerical weather prediction

Since wind at the earth's surface has an intrinsically complex and stochastic nature, accurate wind power forecasts are necessary for the safe and economic use of wind energy. In this paper, we investigated a combination of numeric and probabilistic models: a Gaussian process (GP) combined with a numerical weather prediction (NWP) model was applied to wind-power forecasting up to one day ahead. First, the wind-speed data from NWP was corrected by a GP, then, as there is always a defined limit on power generated in a wind turbine due to the turbine controlling strategy, wind power forecasts were realized by modeling the relationship between the corrected wind speed and power output using a censored GP. To validate the proposed approach, three real-world datasets were used for model training and testing. The empirical results were compared with several classical wind forecast models, and based on the mean absolute error (MAE), the proposed model provides around 9% to 14% improvement in forecasting accuracy compared to an artificial neural network (ANN) model, and nearly 17% improvement on a third dataset which is from a newly-built wind farm for which there is a limited amount of training data. © 2013 IEEE.

Short-term wind power forecasting using Gaussian processes

Since wind has an intrinsically complex and stochastic nature, accurate wind power forecasts are necessary for the safety and economics of wind energy utilization. In this paper, we investigate a combination of numeric and probabilistic models: one-day-ahead wind power forecasts were made with Gaussian Processes (GPs) applied to the outputs of a Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) model. Firstly the wind speed data from NWP was corrected by a GP. Then, as there is always a defined limit on power generated in a wind turbine due the turbine controlling strategy, a Censored GP was used to model the relationship between the corrected wind speed and power output. To validate the proposed approach, two real world datasets were used for model construction and testing. The simulation results were compared with the persistence method and Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs); the proposed model achieves about 11% improvement in forecasting accuracy (Mean Absolute Error) compared to the ANN model on one dataset, and nearly 5% improvement on another.

Optical rogue waves in telecommunication data streams

Large broadening of short optical pulses due to fiber dispersion leads to a strong overlap in information data streams resulting in statistical deviations of the local power from its average. We present a theoretical analysis of rare events of high-intensity fluctuations-optical freak waves-that occur in fiber communication links using bit-overlapping transmission. Although the nature of the large fluctuations examined here is completely linear, as compared to commonly studied freak waves generated by nonlinear effects, the considered deviations inherit from rogue waves the key features of practical interest-random appearance of localized high-intensity pulses. We use the term "rogue wave" in an unusual context mostly to attract attention to both the possibility of purely linear statistical generation of huge amplitude waves and to the fact that in optics the occurrence of such pulses might be observable even with the standard Gaussian or even rarer-than-Gaussian statistics, without imposing the condition of an increased probability of extreme value events. © 2011 American Physical Society.

Constant V/Hz control based on DSP for open winding doubly-fed wind power generator

A DSP implementation of Space Vector PWM (SVPWM) using constant V/Hz control for the open winding doubly-fed generator is proposed. This control of SVPWM modulation mode and open winding structure combination has the high voltage utilization ratio, greatly improves the control precision of the system, and reduces the stator winding output current distortion rate, though the complexity of the system is increased. This paper describes the basic principle of SVPWM and discusses the particularity of SVPWM waveform generated by hybrid vector under the condition of open winding. This method is applied to a state of doubly-fed wind power generator. The experimental verification shows that this control method can make the output voltage amplitude of the doubly-fed induction generator be 380V and the frequency be 50Hz by using of TMS32028335 chip based on constant V/Hz control of symmetric SVPWM modulation wave.