To link or not to link: a test of the case linkage principles using serial car theft data

The purpose of the present study is to test the case linkage principles of behavioural consistency and behavioural distinctiveness using serial vehicle theft data. Data from 386 solved vehicle thefts committed by 193 offenders were analysed using Jaccard's, regression and Receiver Operating Characteristic analyses to determine whether objectively observable aspects of crime scene behaviour could be used to distinguish crimes committed by the same offender from those committed by different offenders. The findings indicate that spatial behaviour, specifically the distance between theft locations and between dump locations, is a highly consistent and distinctive aspect of vehicle theft behaviour; thus, intercrime and interdump distance represent the most useful aspects of vehicle theft for the purpose of case linkage analysis. The findings have theoretical and practical implications for understanding of criminal behaviour and for the development of decision-support tools to assist police investigation and apprehension of serial vehicle theft offenders.

Triangulation mobility of auto-theft offenders

This research paper presents an examination of the journey to and from crime for autotheft offenders in the UK. For 852 offences, ‘wheel’ distances are calculated for triangles formed by offenders’ home location, theft location, and vehicle disposal location. The study demonstrates typical isosceles mobility triangles; distances travelled to and from home locations are roughly equal, whereas distances between theft and disposal points were shorter. Distances travelled by offenders under 17 years old and offences involving drug and drink were shown to be shorter than comparison groups. Prolifi c offenders tend to travel further, although there is signifi cant variation in this subgroup. Explanations and implications are discussed.