A variational approach to learning curves

We combine the replica approach from statistical physics with a variational approach to analyze learning curves analytically. We apply the method to Gaussian process regression. As a main result we derive approximative relations between empirical error measures, the generalization error and the posterior variance.

Derivations of variational gaussian process approximation framework

Recently, within the VISDEM project (EPSRC funded EP/C005848/1), a novel variational approximation framework has been developed for inference in partially observed, continuous space-time, diffusion processes. In this technical report all the derivations of the variational framework, from the initial work, are provided in detail to help the reader better understand the framework and its assumptions.

Understanding policy convergence in Britain and Germany: towards a framework for analysis

This introduction considers reasons why public policies might be expected to converge between Britain and Germany, arguing that the inter-related forces of globalisation, Europeanisation, policy transfer (in various guises) and the election of centre-left governance in 1997 and 1998 could be expected to lead to such convergence. It then outlines important reasons why such convergence may not occur, due to the radically different institutional settings, as well as 'path dependence' and the resilience of established institutions all playing a role in continuing divergence in a number of important areas of public policy.

‘O convergence, where art thou?’ Regional growth and industrialization in Italy

This paper shows that the Italian economy has two long-run equilibria, which are due to the different level of industrialization between the centre-north and the south of the country. These equilibria converge until 1971 but diverge afterwards; the end of the convergence process coincides with the slowing down of Italy's industrialization policy in the South. In this paper we argue that to address this problem effectively, an economic policy completely different from that in place in needed. However, such a policy is unlikely to be implemented given the scarcity of resources and the short run nature of the political cycle.

A comparison of variational and Markov chain Monte Carlo methods for inference in partially observed stochastic dynamic systems

In recent work we have developed a novel variational inference method for partially observed systems governed by stochastic differential equations. In this paper we provide a comparison of the Variational Gaussian Process Smoother with an exact solution computed using a Hybrid Monte Carlo approach to path sampling, applied to a stochastic double well potential model. It is demonstrated that the variational smoother provides us a very accurate estimate of mean path while conditional variance is slightly underestimated. We conclude with some remarks as to the advantages and disadvantages of the variational smoother. © 2008 Springer Science + Business Media LLC.

Time complexity and convergence analysis of domain theoretic Picard method

We present an implementation of the domain-theoretic Picard method for solving initial value problems (IVPs) introduced by Edalat and Pattinson [1]. Compared to Edalat and Pattinson's implementation, our algorithm uses a more efficient arithmetic based on an arbitrary precision floating-point library. Despite the additional overestimations due to floating-point rounding, we obtain a similar bound on the convergence rate of the produced approximations. Moreover, our convergence analysis is detailed enough to allow a static optimisation in the growth of the precision used in successive Picard iterations. Such optimisation greatly improves the efficiency of the solving process. Although a similar optimisation could be performed dynamically without our analysis, a static one gives us a significant advantage: we are able to predict the time it will take the solver to obtain an approximation of a certain (arbitrarily high) quality.

Variational inference for Student-t MLP models

This paper presents a novel methodology to infer parameters of probabilistic models whose output noise is a Student-t distribution. The method is an extension of earlier work for models that are linear in parameters to nonlinear multi-layer perceptrons (MLPs). We used an EM algorithm combined with variational approximation, the evidence procedure, and an optimisation algorithm. The technique was tested on two regression applications. The first one is a synthetic dataset and the second is gas forward contract prices data from the UK energy market. The results showed that forecasting accuracy is significantly improved by using Student-t noise models.

Variational Markov Chain Monte Carlo for Bayesian smoothing of non-linear niffusions

In this paper we develop set of novel Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms for Bayesian smoothing of partially observed non-linear diffusion processes. The sampling algorithms developed herein use a deterministic approximation to the posterior distribution over paths as the proposal distribution for a mixture of an independence and a random walk sampler. The approximating distribution is sampled by simulating an optimized time-dependent linear diffusion process derived from the recently developed variational Gaussian process approximation method. Flexible blocking strategies are introduced to further improve mixing, and thus the efficiency, of the sampling algorithms. The algorithms are tested on two diffusion processes: one with double-well potential drift and another with SINE drift. The new algorithm's accuracy and efficiency is compared with state-of-the-art hybrid Monte Carlo based path sampling. It is shown that in practical, finite sample, applications the algorithm is accurate except in the presence of large observation errors and low observation densities, which lead to a multi-modal structure in the posterior distribution over paths. More importantly, the variational approximation assisted sampling algorithm outperforms hybrid Monte Carlo in terms of computational efficiency, except when the diffusion process is densely observed with small errors in which case both algorithms are equally efficient.

Neuronal convergence in early contrast vision: binocular summation is followed by response nonlinearity and area summation

We assessed summation of contrast across eyes and area at detection threshold ( C t). Stimuli were sine-wave gratings (2.5 c/deg) spatially modulated by cosine- and anticosine-phase raised plaids (0.5 c/deg components oriented at ±45°). When presented dichoptically the signal regions were interdigitated across eyes but produced a smooth continuous grating following their linear binocular sum. The average summation ratio ( C t1/([ C t1+2]) for this stimulus pair was 1.64 (4.3 dB). This was only slightly less than the binocular summation found for the same patch type presented to both eyes, and the area summation found for the two different patch types presented to the same eye. We considered 192 model architectures containing each of the following four elements in all possible orders: (i) linear summation or a MAX operator across eyes, (ii) linear summation or a MAX operator across area, (iii) linear or accelerating contrast transduction, and (iv) additive Gaussian, stochastic noise. Formal equivalences reduced this to 62 different models. The most successful four-element model was: linear summation across eyes followed by nonlinear contrast transduction, linear summation across area, and late noise. Model performance was enhanced when additional nonlinearities were placed before binocular summation and after area summation. The implications for models of probability summation and uncertainty are discussed.

Estimating parameters in stochastic systems:a variational Bayesian approach

This work is concerned with approximate inference in dynamical systems, from a variational Bayesian perspective. When modelling real world dynamical systems, stochastic differential equations appear as a natural choice, mainly because of their ability to model the noise of the system by adding a variation of some stochastic process to the deterministic dynamics. Hence, inference in such processes has drawn much attention. Here a new extended framework is derived that is based on a local polynomial approximation of a recently proposed variational Bayesian algorithm. The paper begins by showing that the new extension of this variational algorithm can be used for state estimation (smoothing) and converges to the original algorithm. However, the main focus is on estimating the (hyper-) parameters of these systems (i.e. drift parameters and diffusion coefficients). The new approach is validated on a range of different systems which vary in dimensionality and non-linearity. These are the Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process, the exact likelihood of which can be computed analytically, the univariate and highly non-linear, stochastic double well and the multivariate chaotic stochastic Lorenz ’63 (3D model). As a special case the algorithm is also applied to the 40 dimensional stochastic Lorenz ’96 system. In our investigation we compare this new approach with a variety of other well known methods, such as the hybrid Monte Carlo, dual unscented Kalman filter, full weak-constraint 4D-Var algorithm and analyse empirically their asymptotic behaviour as a function of observation density or length of time window increases. In particular we show that we are able to estimate parameters in both the drift (deterministic) and the diffusion (stochastic) part of the model evolution equations using our new methods.

A new variational radial basis function approximation for inference in multivariate diffusions

In this paper we present a radial basis function based extension to a recently proposed variational algorithm for approximate inference for diffusion processes. Inference, for state and in particular (hyper-) parameters, in diffusion processes is a challenging and crucial task. We show that the new radial basis function approximation based algorithm converges to the original algorithm and has beneficial characteristics when estimating (hyper-)parameters. We validate our new approach on a nonlinear double well potential dynamical system.

Variational inference for diffusion processes

Diffusion processes are a family of continuous-time continuous-state stochastic processes that are in general only partially observed. The joint estimation of the forcing parameters and the system noise (volatility) in these dynamical systems is a crucial, but non-trivial task, especially when the system is nonlinear and multimodal. We propose a variational treatment of diffusion processes, which allows us to compute type II maximum likelihood estimates of the parameters by simple gradient techniques and which is computationally less demanding than most MCMC approaches. We also show how a cheap estimate of the posterior over the parameters can be constructed based on the variational free energy.

Constructing institutional change: emergence, contestation and convergence of business models in the field of Java application servers

How are innovative new business models established if organizations constantly compare themselves against existing criteria and expectations? The objective is to address this question from the perspective of innovators and their ability to redefine established expectations and evaluation criteria. The research questions ask whether there are discernible patterns of discursive action through which innovators theorize institutional change and what role such theorizations play for mobilizing support and realizing change projects. These questions are investigated through a case study on a critical area of enterprise computing software, Java application servers. In the present case, business practices and models were already well established among incumbents with critical market areas allocated to few dominant firms. Fringe players started experimenting with a new business approach of selling services around freely available opensource application servers. While most new players struggled, one new entrant succeeded in leading incumbents to adopt and compete on the new model. The case demonstrates that innovative and substantially new models and practices are established in organizational fields when innovators are able to refine expectations and evaluation criteria within an organisational field. The study addresses the theoretical paradox of embedded agency. Actors who are embedded in prevailing institutional logics and structures find it hard to perceive potentially disruptive opportunities that fall outside existing ways of doing things. Changing prevailing institutional logics and structures requires strategic and institutional work aimed at overcoming barriers to innovation. The study addresses this problem through the lens of (new) institutional theory. This discourse methodology traces the process through which innovators were able to establish a new social and business model in the field.