An improved novelty criterion for resource allocating networks

Online model order complexity estimation remains one of the key problems in neural network research. The problem is further exacerbated in situations where the underlying system generator is non-stationary. In this paper, we introduce a novelty criterion for resource allocating networks (RANs) which is capable of being applied to both stationary and slowly varying non-stationary problems. The deficiencies of existing novelty criteria are discussed and the relative performances are demonstrated on two real-world problems : electricity load forecasting and exchange rate prediction.

The usefulness of spatial pattern analysis in understanding the pathogenesis of neurodegenerative disorders, with particular reference to plaque formation in Alzheimer's disease

Discrete, microscopic lesions are developed in the brain in a number of neurodegenerative diseases. These lesions may not be randomly distributed in the tissue but exhibit a spatial pattern, i.e., a departure from randomness towards regularlity or clustering. The spatial pattern of a lesion may reflect its development in relation to other brain lesions or to neuroanatomical structures. Hence, a study of spatial pattern may help to elucidate the pathogenesis of a lesion. A number of statistical methods can be used to study the spatial patterns of brain lesions. They range from simple tests of whether the distribution of a lesion departs from random to more complex methods which can detect clustering and the size, distribution and spacing of clusters. This paper reviews the uses and limitations of these methods as applied to neurodegenerative disorders, and in particular to senile plaque formation in Alzheimer's disease.

An evaluation of Home Office extended interviews for police personnel

In this thesis the validity of an Assessment Centre (called 'Extended Interview') operated on behalf of the British police is investigated. This Assessment Centre (AC) is used to select from amongst internal candidates (serving policemen and policewomen) and external candidates (graduates) for places on an accelerated promotion scheme. The literature is reviewed with respect to history, content, structure, reliability, validity, efficiency and usefulness of ACs, and to contextual issues surrounding AC use. The history of, background to and content of police Extended Interviews (Els) is described, and research issues are identified. Internal validation involved regression of overall EI grades on measures from component tests, exercises, interviews and peer nominations. Four samples numbering 126, 73, 86 and 109 were used in this part of the research. External validation involved regression of three types of criteria - training grades, rank attained, and supervisory ratings - on all EI measures. Follow-up periods for job criteria ranged from 7 to 19 years. Three samples, numbering 223, 157 and 86, were used in this part of the research. In subsidiary investigations, supervisory ratings were factor analysed and criteria intercorrelated. For two of the samples involved in the external validition, clinical/judgemental prediction was compared with mechanical (unit-weighted composite) prediction. Main conclusions are that: (1) EI selection decisions were valid, but only for a job performance criterion; relatively low validity overall was interpreted principally in terms of the questionable job relatedness of the EI procedure; (2) Els as a whole had more validity than was reflected in final EI decisions; (3) assessors' use of information was not optimum, tending to over-emphasize subjectively derived information particularly from interviews; and (4) mechanical prediction was superior to clinical/judgemental prediction for five major criteria.

A failure criterion for fillet welds

The work constitutes a study of the strength of mild steel fillet welds subject to static loading, and the behaviour of flange welded beam-column connections under combined bending and shear. Tests are conducted on short welds in the as-welded and stress relieved conditions, and also on full-size beam-column connections. It is shown that welds under compression have a lower strength than when under tension. Failure of the fillet weld is initiated at the weld root, the important factor controlling the initiation being weld ductility. The greater the residual stress, the lower the weld ductility and ultimate strength. Thermal stress relieving increases strength by as much as 30%. Weld failure plane is rarely at the throat and varies from 0° to 45° depending upon loading condition. Failure plane average stresses are related by a circular function which is expressed in terms of externally applied forces at limit state. The tension weld of a flange-welded beam-column connection always fails before the compression weld. The shear load sharing between the welds is a complex function of elastic compression of the web, elastic/plastic deformation of the flanges, load/deformation characteristics, and the type of load application. Bearing forces between the compression flange and column face produce low level bearing stresses and frictional forces which make a negligible contribution to shear load resistance. Three modes of connection failure are possible; 'end mode', 'bending mode' and 'shear mode', with a sudden change taking place between the two latter.

Using apparent activation energy as a reactivity criterion for biomass pyrolysis

The reactivity of chemically isolated lignocellulosic blocks, namely, α-cellulose, holocellulose, and lignin, has been rationalized on the basis of the dependence of the effective activation energy (Eα) upon conversion (α) determined via the popular isoconversional kinetic analysis, Friedman’s method. First of all, a detailed procedure for the thermogravimetric data preparation, kinetic calculation, and uncertainty estimation was implemented. Resulting Eα dependencies obtained for the slow pyrolysis of the extractive-free Eucalyptus grandis isolated α-cellulose and holocellulose remained constant for 0.05 < α < 0.80 and equal to 173 ± 10, 208 ± 11, and 197 ± 118 kJ/mol, thus confirming the single-step nature of pyrolysis. On the other hand, large and significant variations in Eα with α from 174 ± 10 to 322 ± 11 kJ/mol in the region of 0.05 and 0.79 were obtained for the Klason lignin and reported for the first time. The non-monotonic nature of weight loss at low and high conversions had a direct consequence on the confidence levels of Eα. The new experimental and calculation guidelines applied led to more accurate estimates of Eα values than those reported earlier. The increasing Eα dependency trend confirms that lignin is converted into a thermally more stable carbonaceous material.

Better queue management in a busy public hospital of a developing country without appointment system::an application using data envelopment analysis

Queuing is a key efficiency criterion in any service industry, including Healthcare. Almost all queue management studies are dedicated to improving an existing Appointment System. In developing countries such as Pakistan, there are no Appointment Systems for outpatients, resulting in excessive wait times. Additionally, excessive overloading, limited resources and cumbersome procedures lead to over-whelming queues. Despite numerous Healthcare applications, Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) has not been applied for queue assessment. The current study aims to extend DEA modelling and demonstrate its usefulness by evaluating the queue system of a busy public hospital in a developing country, Pakistan, where all outpatients are walk-in; along with construction of a dynamic framework dedicated towards the implementation of the model. The inadequate allocation of doctors/personnel was observed as the most critical issue for long queues. Hence, the Queuing-DEA model has been developed such that it determines the ‘required’ number of doctors/personnel. The results indicated that given extensive wait times or length of queue, or both, led to high target values for doctors/personnel. Hence, this crucial information allows the administrators to ensure optimal staff utilization and controlling the queue pre-emptively, minimizing wait times. The dynamic framework constructed, specifically targets practical implementation of the Queuing-DEA model in resource-poor public hospitals of developing countries such as Pakistan; to continuously monitor rapidly changing queue situation and display latest required personnel. Consequently, the wait times of subsequent patients can be minimized, along with dynamic staff scheduling in the absence of appointments. This dynamic framework has been designed in Excel, requiring minimal training and work for users and automatic update features, with complex technical aspects running in the background. The proposed model and the dynamic framework has the potential to be applied in similar public hospitals, even in other developing countries, where appointment systems for outpatients are non-existent.