The design of a real-time nowcasting system for localised weather

National meteorological offices are largely concerned with synoptic-scale forecasting where weather predictions are produced for a whole country for 24 hours ahead. In practice, many local organisations (such as emergency services, construction industries, forestry, farming, and sports) require only local short-term, bespoke, weather predictions and warnings. This thesis shows that the less-demanding requirements do not require exceptional computing power and can be met by a modern, desk-top system which monitors site-specific ground conditions (such as temperature, pressure, wind speed and direction, etc) augmented with above ground information from satellite images to produce `nowcasts'. The emphasis in this thesis has been towards the design of such a real-time system for nowcasting. Local site-specific conditions are monitored using a custom-built, stand alone, Motorola 6809 based sub-system. Above ground information is received from the METEOSAT 4 geo-stationary satellite using a sub-system based on a commercially available equipment. The information is ephemeral and must be captured in real-time. The real-time nowcasting system for localised weather handles the data as a transparent task using the limited capabilities of the PC system. Ground data produces a time series of measurements at a specific location which represents the past-to-present atmospheric conditions of the particular site from which much information can be extracted. The novel approach adopted in this thesis is one of constructing stochastic models based on the AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) technique. The satellite images contain features (such as cloud formations) which evolve dynamically and may be subject to movement, growth, distortion, bifurcation, superposition, or elimination between images. The process of extracting a weather feature, following its motion and predicting its future evolution involves algorithms for normalisation, partitioning, filtering, image enhancement, and correlation of multi-dimensional signals in different domains. To limit the processing requirements, the analysis in this thesis concentrates on an `area of interest'. By this rationale, only a small fraction of the total image needs to be processed, leading to a major saving in time. The thesis also proposes an extention to an existing manual cloud classification technique for its implementation in automatically classifying a cloud feature over the `area of interest' for nowcasting using the multi-dimensional signals.

Variable time-scale information processing

With the extensive use of pulse modulation methods in telecommunications, much work has been done in the search for a better utilisation of the transmission channel.The present research is an extension of these investigations. A new modulation method, 'Variable Time-Scale Information Processing', (VTSIP), is proposed.The basic principles of this system have been established, and the main advantages and disadvantages investigated. With the proposed system, comparison circuits detect the instants at which the input signal voltage crosses predetermined amplitude levels.The time intervals between these occurrences are measured digitally and the results are temporarily stored, before being transmitted.After reception, an inverse process enables the original signal to be reconstituted.The advantage of this system is that the irregularities in the rate of information contained in the input signal are smoothed out before transmission, allowing the use of a smaller transmission bandwidth. A disadvantage of the system is the time delay necessarily introduced by the storage process.Another disadvantage is a type of distortion caused by the finite store capacity.A simulation of the system has been made using a standard speech signal, to make some assessment of this distortion. It is concluded that the new system should be an improvement on existing pulse transmission systems, allowing the use of a smaller transmission bandwidth, but introducing a time delay.

Advantages of strong mode coupling for suppression of nonlinear distortion in few-mode fibers

Nonlinear distortion in few-mode fibers for intermediate coupling is studied for the first time. Coupling strengths beyond -20 dB/100m give suppression of nonlinear distortion below the isolated mode without mode coupling.

Perturbative discrete-time multivariate fiber channel model with finite memory

We introduce a discrete-time fibre channel model that provides an accurate analytical description of signal-signal and signal-noise interference with memory defined by the interplay of nonlinearity and dispersion. Also the conditional pdf of signal distortion, which captures non-circular complex multivariate symbol interactions, is derived providing the necessary platform for the analysis of channel statistics and capacity estimations in fibre optic links.

Nonlinear distortion in mode delay compensated few-mode fibre spans with intermediate coupling

Nonlinear distortion in delay-compensated spans for intermediate coupling is studied for the first time. Coupling strengths under -30dB/100m allow distortion reduction using shorter compensation lengths and higher delays. For higher coupling strengths no significant penalty results from shorter compensation lengths.