To link or not to link: a test of the case linkage principles using serial car theft data

The purpose of the present study is to test the case linkage principles of behavioural consistency and behavioural distinctiveness using serial vehicle theft data. Data from 386 solved vehicle thefts committed by 193 offenders were analysed using Jaccard's, regression and Receiver Operating Characteristic analyses to determine whether objectively observable aspects of crime scene behaviour could be used to distinguish crimes committed by the same offender from those committed by different offenders. The findings indicate that spatial behaviour, specifically the distance between theft locations and between dump locations, is a highly consistent and distinctive aspect of vehicle theft behaviour; thus, intercrime and interdump distance represent the most useful aspects of vehicle theft for the purpose of case linkage analysis. The findings have theoretical and practical implications for understanding of criminal behaviour and for the development of decision-support tools to assist police investigation and apprehension of serial vehicle theft offenders.

Triangulation mobility of auto-theft offenders

This research paper presents an examination of the journey to and from crime for autotheft offenders in the UK. For 852 offences, ‘wheel’ distances are calculated for triangles formed by offenders’ home location, theft location, and vehicle disposal location. The study demonstrates typical isosceles mobility triangles; distances travelled to and from home locations are roughly equal, whereas distances between theft and disposal points were shorter. Distances travelled by offenders under 17 years old and offences involving drug and drink were shown to be shorter than comparison groups. Prolifi c offenders tend to travel further, although there is signifi cant variation in this subgroup. Explanations and implications are discussed.

Causality and synchronisation in complex systems with applications to neuroscience

This thesis presents an investigation, of synchronisation and causality, motivated by problems in computational neuroscience. The thesis addresses both theoretical and practical signal processing issues regarding the estimation of interdependence from a set of multivariate data generated by a complex underlying dynamical system. This topic is driven by a series of problems in neuroscience, which represents the principal background motive behind the material in this work. The underlying system is the human brain and the generative process of the data is based on modern electromagnetic neuroimaging methods . In this thesis, the underlying functional of the brain mechanisms are derived from the recent mathematical formalism of dynamical systems in complex networks. This is justified principally on the grounds of the complex hierarchical and multiscale nature of the brain and it offers new methods of analysis to model its emergent phenomena. A fundamental approach to study the neural activity is to investigate the connectivity pattern developed by the brain’s complex network. Three types of connectivity are important to study: 1) anatomical connectivity refering to the physical links forming the topology of the brain network; 2) effective connectivity concerning with the way the neural elements communicate with each other using the brain’s anatomical structure, through phenomena of synchronisation and information transfer; 3) functional connectivity, presenting an epistemic concept which alludes to the interdependence between data measured from the brain network. The main contribution of this thesis is to present, apply and discuss novel algorithms of functional connectivities, which are designed to extract different specific aspects of interaction between the underlying generators of the data. Firstly, a univariate statistic is developed to allow for indirect assessment of synchronisation in the local network from a single time series. This approach is useful in inferring the coupling as in a local cortical area as observed by a single measurement electrode. Secondly, different existing methods of phase synchronisation are considered from the perspective of experimental data analysis and inference of coupling from observed data. These methods are designed to address the estimation of medium to long range connectivity and their differences are particularly relevant in the context of volume conduction, that is known to produce spurious detections of connectivity. Finally, an asymmetric temporal metric is introduced in order to detect the direction of the coupling between different regions of the brain. The method developed in this thesis is based on a machine learning extensions of the well known concept of Granger causality. The thesis discussion is developed alongside examples of synthetic and experimental real data. The synthetic data are simulations of complex dynamical systems with the intention to mimic the behaviour of simple cortical neural assemblies. They are helpful to test the techniques developed in this thesis. The real datasets are provided to illustrate the problem of brain connectivity in the case of important neurological disorders such as Epilepsy and Parkinson’s disease. The methods of functional connectivity in this thesis are applied to intracranial EEG recordings in order to extract features, which characterize underlying spatiotemporal dynamics before during and after an epileptic seizure and predict seizure location and onset prior to conventional electrographic signs. The methodology is also applied to a MEG dataset containing healthy, Parkinson’s and dementia subjects with the scope of distinguishing patterns of pathological from physiological connectivity.

Planning for cycling in the West Midlands

The issues involved in planning for pedal cyclists are examined with reference to the West Midlands County. Working with a local cycling campaign group, the researcher uses action research methods to investigate and influence the campaign. Development of cycle planning is traced through the literature, focusing on bicycle ownership, bicycle use and cycling policy. UK practice is contrasted with the integrated approach of other countries. An extensive bibliography is provided. Local authority cycle planning through the TPP process is systematically assessed over three years. This provides a context for the information regarding cycling in the West Midlands. Existing data is presented from the 1981 Census and local police road accident and bicycle theft records. The developing relationship between the local authority and the cycle campaign group is narrated in detail, explaining the problems that can beset efforts to improve conditions for cyclists. The researcher was closely involved in this interaction, particularly with policy and a major public inquiry. A survey of the Cycle Campaign Network indicates that the local group was not atypical. To provide information relevant to the local campaign and for effective local planning, a survey of 3,500 West Midlands residents was conducted using a novel combination of questionnaires and interviews. It shows that 1) Bicycle ownership and use is considerably higher than indicated by the 1978/9 National Travel Survey 2) Cycling is most import to certain disadvantaged sections of the community, particularly the young, those without access to a car and in the lower SEGs. The broader issues of transport policy are discussed, concluding that cycling is regarded as a marginal activity and that changes in general transport policy, land use planning and fiscal arrangements are necessary conditions for cycle planning to succeed. An integrated package of cycling measures involving engineering, education, enforcement and encouragement is also required. Recommendations are made concerning central government, local authorities and cycle campaign groups. Subjects for further research are identified.

Spatio-temporal analyses of West Nile virus transmission in Culex mosquitoes in northern Illinois, USA, 2004

After a severe outbreak of West Nile virus (WNV) in Cook County, Illinois, in 2002, detections of WNV in mosquitoes were frequent across the state in the following years despite small numbers of human cases. We conducted a spatio-temporal analysis of Culex (subgenus Culex) mosquitoes collected in 2004 in three mosquito abatement districts (MAD) in Cook County by calculating monthly estimates of mosquito density, prevalence of infected mosquitoes, and exposure intensity, which in turn is a product of mosquito density and infection rates. Mosquito infections were detected early at three sites in late May and were widely detected throughout the three MADs in the summer with infection rates as high as 13 per 1000 in August. Exposure intensities were higher at sites adjacent to the Des Plaines River, especially in August and September. The aggregated pattern of WNV transmission along the river might be related to the existence of substantial forest preserves and wetlands that might produce ecological conditions favorable for mosquito proliferation and interactions between mosquitoes and birds.

Cyberstalking:a new challenge for criminal law

Cyberstalking has recently emerged as a new and growing problem and is an area that will probably receive a higher profile within criminal law as more cases reach court (see Griffiths, 1999; Griffiths, Rogers and Sparrow, 1998; Bojic and McFarlane, 2002a; 2002b). For the purposes of this article we define cyberstalking as the use of information and communications technology (in particular the Internet) in order to harass individuals. Such harassment may include actions such as the transmission of offensive e-mail messages, identity theft and damage to data or equipment. Whilst a more comprehensive definition has been presented elsewhere (Bocij and McFarlane, 2002), it is hoped that the definition here is sufficient for those unfamiliar with this field. The stereotypical stalker conjures up images of someone harassing a victim who is the object of their affection. However, not all stalking incidents are motivated by unrequited love. Stalking can also be motivated by hate, a need for revenge, a need for power and/or racism. Similarly, cyberstalking can involve acts that begin with the issuing of threats and end in physical assault. We also make distinctions between conventional stalking and cyberstalking. Whilst some may view cyberstalking as an extension of conventional stalking, we believe cyberstalking should be regarded as an entirely new form of deviant behaviour. It is not surprising that cyberstalking is sometimes thought of as a trivial problem. A number of writers and researchers have suggested that cyberstalking and associated activities are of little genuine concern. Koch (2000), for example, goes as far as accusing those interested in cyberstalking as promoting hysteria over a problem that may be minuscule or even imaginary. The impression gained is that cyberstalking represents a relatively small problem where victims seldom suffer any real harm. Whilst there are no genuinely reliable statistics that can be used to determine how common cyberstalking incidents are, a great deal of evidence is available to show that cyberstalking is a significant and growing problem (Griffiths et al, 1998). For instance, CyberAngels (a well-known Internet safety organization) receives some 500 complaints of cyberstalking each day, of which up to 100 represent legitimate cases (Dean, 2000). Another Internet safety organization (Working to Halt Online Abuse) reports receiving an average of 100 cases per week (WHOA, 2001). To highlight the types of cyberstalking behaviours that take place and some of the major issues facing criminal law, we briefly examine four high profile cases of cyberstalking (adapted from Bocij and MacFarlane, 2002b).

Performance enhancement of asymmetric filtered 40 Gb/s carrier suppressed return to zero-differential phase shift keying receiver in a 50 GHz grid

The authors present the impact of asymmetric filtering of strong (e.g. 35 GHz) optical filters on the performance of 42.7 Gb/s 67% (carrier suppressed return to zero)-differential phase shift keying systems. The performance is examined (in an amplified spontaneous emission (ASE) noise-limited regime and in the presence of chromatic dispersion) when offsetting the filter at the receiver by substantial amounts via balanced, constructive and destructive single-ended detections. It is found that with a slight offset (vestigial side band) or an offset of almost half of the modulation frequency (single-side band), there is a significant improvement in the calculated 'Q'. © The Institution of Engineering and Technology 2013.

Contextual semantics for sentiment analysis of Twitter

Sentiment analysis on Twitter has attracted much attention recently due to its wide applications in both, commercial and public sectors. In this paper we present SentiCircles, a lexicon-based approach for sentiment analysis on Twitter. Different from typical lexicon-based approaches, which offer a fixed and static prior sentiment polarities of words regardless of their context, SentiCircles takes into account the co-occurrence patterns of words in different contexts in tweets to capture their semantics and update their pre-assigned strength and polarity in sentiment lexicons accordingly. Our approach allows for the detection of sentiment at both entity-level and tweet-level. We evaluate our proposed approach on three Twitter datasets using three different sentiment lexicons to derive word prior sentiments. Results show that our approach significantly outperforms the baselines in accuracy and F-measure for entity-level subjectivity (neutral vs. polar) and polarity (positive vs. negative) detections. For tweet-level sentiment detection, our approach performs better than the state-of-the-art SentiStrength by 4-5% in accuracy in two datasets, but falls marginally behind by 1% in F-measure in the third dataset.

Survey of General Optical Council disciplinary and fitness to practise hearings:2001-2011

The aim of this survey was to review 187 transcripts from the United Kingdom’s General Optical Council (GOC) Disciplinary and Fitness To Practise (FTP) Committee hearings from 2001 to 2011 in order to identify common themes and thereby help practitioners to avoid the more frequently occurring pitfalls that were recorded during this period. The study covered changes in GOC FTP regulations in 2005, which involved a change from a disciplinary to a fitness to practise process. The number of cases was very small compared to the total number of optometrist and dispensing optician registrants, which was 13709 in 2001-02 rising to 18582 in 2010-11. The main findings indicated that between 2001 and 2011 there was a three times greater likelihood that male registrants versus female registrants would be brought in front of a GOC Disciplinary or FTP Committee. In terms of erasures from the GOC registers between 2001 and 2011, male registrants were also more likely to be erased than females. The male: female split for erasures between 2001 and 2011 was five: one, increasing to seven: one when considering the situation post the 2005 GOC FTP rule change. Of the cases brought before the Disciplinary and FTP Committees between 2001 and 2011, it was noted that cases implicating theft and fraud were most frequent representing 27% of hearings examined (17% involving NHS fraud and 10% theft or fraud from an employer). The examination of transcripts revealed other hearings were more complex. These hearings often had a primary reason for the investigation that highlighted further secondary concerns that also required investigation.