Adaptation to flood risk:the case of businesses in the UK

Despite Government investment in flood defence schemes, many properties remain at high risk of flooding. A substantial portion of these properties are business establishments. Flooding can create serious consequences for businesses, including damage to property and stocks, being out of business for a considerable period and ultimately business failure. Recent flood events such as those in 2007 and 2009 that affected many parts of the UK have helped to establish the true costs of flooding to businesses. This greater understanding of the risks to businesses has heightened the need for business owners to adapt their businesses to the threat of future flooding. Government policy has now shifted away from investment in engineered flood defences, towards encouraging the uptake of property level flood resistance and resilience measures by businesses. However, implementing such adaptation strategies remains a challenge due a range of reasons. A review of the current state of property level flood risk adaptation of UK businesses is presented, drawing from extant literature. Barriers that may hinder the uptake of property level adaptation by businesses are revealed and drivers that may enhance uptake and effectively overcome these barriers are also discussed. It is concluded that the professions from the construction sector have the potential to contribute towards the adaptation of business properties and thereby the flood resilience of businesses at risk of flooding.

The role of suicide risk in the decision for psychiatric hospitalization after a suicide attempt

BACKGROUND: Suicide prevention can be improved by knowing which variables physicians take into account when considering hospitalization or discharge of patients who have attempted suicide. AIMS: To test whether suicide risk is an adequate explanatory variable for predicting admission to a psychiatric unit after a suicide attempt. METHODS: Analyses of 840 clinical records of patients who had attempted suicide (66.3% women) at four public general hospitals in Madrid (Spain). RESULTS: 180 (21.4%) patients were admitted to psychiatric units. Logistic regression analyses showed that explanatory variables predicting admission were: male gender; previous psychiatric hospitalization; psychiatric disorder; not having a substance-related disorder; use of a lethal method; delay until discovery of more than one hour; previous attempts; suicidal ideation; high suicidal planning; and lack of verbalization of adequate criticism of the attempt. CONCLUSIONS: Suicide risk appears to be an adequate explanatory variable for predicting the decision to admit a patient to a psychiatric ward after a suicide attempt, although the introduction of other variables improves the model. These results provide additional information regarding factors involved in everyday medical practice in emergency settings.

Modelling the resuspensions of fibres in the racetrack channel

Presentation of the progress made in modelling fibre agglomerate transport in the racetrack channel. Fibre agglomerates can be generated through the disruption of insulation materials during LOCA in NPPs. The fibres can make their way to the containment sump strainers and lead to their blockage. This blockage can lead to an increase in the pressure drop acting across the strainers, which can lead to cavitation behind the strainer and in the recirculation pumps. This will lead to a loss of ECC water reaching the reactor. A small proportion of the fibres may also reach the reactor vessel. Therefore reliable numerical models of the three-dimensional flow behaviour of the fibres must be developed. The racetrack channel offers the chance to validate such models. The presentation describes the techniques involved and the results obtained from transient simulations of the whole channel.

The use of context in the classification of urban aerial imagery

Urban regions present some of the most challenging areas for the remote sensing community. Many different types of land cover have similar spectral responses, making them difficult to distinguish from one another. Traditional per-pixel classification techniques suffer particularly badly because they only use these spectral properties to determine a class, and no other properties of the image, such as context. This project presents the results of the classification of a deeply urban area of Dudley, West Midlands, using 4 methods: Supervised Maximum Likelihood, SMAP, ECHO and Unsupervised Maximum Likelihood. An accuracy assessment method is then developed to allow a fair representation of each procedure and a direct comparison between them. Subsequently, a classification procedure is developed that makes use of the context in the image, though a per-polygon classification. The imagery is broken up into a series of polygons extracted from the Marr-Hildreth zero-crossing edge detector. These polygons are then refined using a region-growing algorithm, and then classified according to the mean class of the fine polygons. The imagery produced by this technique is shown to be of better quality and of a higher accuracy than that of other conventional methods. Further refinements are suggested and examined to improve the aesthetic appearance of the imagery. Finally a comparison with the results produced from a previous study of the James Bridge catchment, in Darleston, West Midlands, is made, showing that the Polygon classified ATM imagery performs significantly better than the Maximum Likelihood classified videography used in the initial study, despite the presence of geometric correction errors.

Public sector investment appraisal:the place of flexibility in the decision making process

This thesis reviews the main methodological developments in public sector investment appraisal and finds growing evidence that appraisal techniques are not fulfilling their earlier promise. It is suggested that an important reason for this failure lies in the inability of these techniques to handle uncertainty except in a highly circumscribed fashion. It is argued that a more fruitful approach is to strive for flexibility. Investment projects should be formulated with a view to making them responsive to a wide range of possible future events, rather than embodying a solution which is optimal for one configuration of circumstances only. The distinction drawn in economics between the short and the long run is used to examine the nature of flexibility. The concept of long run flexibility is applied to the pre-investment range of choice open to the decisionmaker. It is demonstrated that flexibility is reduced at a very early stage of decisionmaking by the conventional system of appraisal which evaluates only a small number of options. The pre-appraisal filtering process is considered further in relation to decisionmaking models. It is argued that for public sector projects the narrowing down of options is best understood in relation to an amended mixed scanning model which places importance on the process by which the 'national interest ' is determined. Short run flexibility deals with operational characteristics, the degree to which particular projects may respond to changing demands when the basic investment is already in place. The tension between flexibility and cost is noted. A short case study on the choice of electricity generating plant is presented. The thesis concludes with a brief examination of the approaches used by successive British governments to public sector investment, particularly in relation to the nationalised industries

Proliferative diabetic retinopathy (R3) referrals from the digital diabetic retinopathy screening program:urgency of appointment in the hospital eye service achieved and needed?

DESIGN. Retrospective analysis PURPOSE. To assess the clinical characteristics and outcomes of patients identified with proliferative diabetic retinopathy (PDR) referred from the screening program to the hospital eye services (HES) METHODS. a retrospective analysis of urgently referred PDR cases to Birmingham Heartlands HES from august 2008 until July 2010 RESULTS. 130 urgent diabetic retinopathy referrals were made and reviewed. 103 (68% male, 80% type 2 diabetes) were referred for PDR with a mean age of 59 years, mean diabetes duration of 17.8years. 69% were on insulin treatment at the time of the screening, with mean HbA1c of 10.4% (range-5.7 to 16.5%). 65% of the patients were offered appointments at HES within two weeks after referral from the screening. 50.5% of the patients were seen in the HES within 2 weeks, 22 and 16 % were seen 2-4 and 4-8 weeks after referral respectively. 6 patients never attended ophthalmology examination during the two years of review. Of all the attendees, 56% were booked for pan retinal photocoagulation (PRP) & 9(9.3%) for macular laser respectively on their 1st HES visit. 75% of the patients were newly diagnosed PDR and 26 had previous PRP laser but lost to follow up. 63 patients ( 66%) received either PRP or macular laser treatment (85.7% of which is PRP). 63% of the PRP treatment was performed within a month of first HES attendance. Retinopathy grading discrepancy between the screening program and HES was noted in 20% (21 patients). CONCLUSIONS. This data suggests that the digital screening programme is appropriately identifying high risk patients with PDR with timely PRP laser treatment in the majority of patients but raises concern over patients lost to follow up (hence failsafe tracking of appointment attendance), and review of grading discrepancies between the ophthalmology and screening service.

Coping strategies against extreme weather events:a survey of SMEs in the UK

Small and Medium-scale Enterprises (SMEs); which generate more than one half of the employment and turnover, form an important sector of the UK economy. In fact, SMEs are considered as the backbone of the UK economy due to their significant economic and societal importance. Despite SMEs being the main drivers of the UK economy, they are also said to be the most vulnerable to the impacts from various disruptions such as Extreme Weather Events (EWEs). Consequently, increased intensity and frequency of weather extremes in the UK during the recent past has created a significant impact on the SME community. As the threat of EWEs is expected to further increase in future, the need for SMEs to implement effective coping mechanisms to manage the effects of EWEs is also increasing. This paper aims to identify and evaluate the current coping mechanisms implemented by SMEs to ensure their business continuity in the event of a weather extreme. The paper presents the findings of a questionnaire survey, conducted as part of "Community Resilience to Extreme Weather - CREW" research project, addressing this issue. It is identified that SMEs mostly rely on generic business continuity strategies as opposed to property level protection measures. The paper highlights the importance of raising the uptake of coping strategies by SMEs, as many were found without adequate coping strategies to deal with the risk of EWEs.