Using non-parametric search algorithms to forecast daily excess stock returns

Are the learning procedures of genetic algorithms (GAs) able to generate optimal architectures for artificial neural networks (ANNs) in high frequency data? In this experimental study,GAs are used to identify the best architecture for ANNs. Additional learning is undertaken by the ANNs to forecast daily excess stock returns. No ANN architectures were able to outperform a random walk,despite the finding of non-linearity in the excess returns. This failure is attributed to the absence of suitable ANN structures and further implies that researchers need to be cautious when making inferences from ANN results that use high frequency data.

Palette-colouring: a belief propagation approach

We consider a variation of the prototype combinatorial optimization problem known as graph colouring. Our optimization goal is to colour the vertices of a graph with a fixed number of colours, in a way to maximize the number of different colours present in the set of nearest neighbours of each given vertex. This problem, which we pictorially call palette-colouring, has been recently addressed as a basic example of a problem arising in the context of distributed data storage. Even though it has not been proved to be NP-complete, random search algorithms find the problem hard to solve. Heuristics based on a naive belief propagation algorithm are observed to work quite well in certain conditions. In this paper, we build upon the mentioned result, working out the correct belief propagation algorithm, which needs to take into account the many-body nature of the constraints present in this problem. This method improves the naive belief propagation approach at the cost of increased computational effort. We also investigate the emergence of a satisfiable-to-unsatisfiable 'phase transition' as a function of the vertex mean degree, for different ensembles of sparse random graphs in the large size ('thermodynamic') limit.

Two-B or not two-B? Design patterns for hybrid metaheuristics

Real world search problems, characterised by nonlinearity, noise and multidimensionality, are often best solved by hybrid algorithms. Techniques embodying different necessary features are triggered at specific iterations, in response to the current state of the problem space. In the existing literature, this alternation is managed either statically (through pre-programmed policies) or dynamically, at the cost of high coupling with algorithm inner representation. We extract two design patterns for hybrid metaheuristic search algorithms, the All-Seeing Eye and the Commentator patterns, which we argue should be replaced by the more flexible and loosely coupled Simple Black Box (Two-B) and Utility-based Black Box (Three-B) patterns that we propose here. We recommend the Two-B pattern for purely fitness based hybridisations and the Three-B pattern for more generic search quality evaluation based hybridisations.

A comparative evaluation of term recognition algorithms

Automatic Term Recognition (ATR) is a fundamental processing step preceding more complex tasks such as semantic search and ontology learning. From a large number of methodologies available in the literature only a few are able to handle both single and multi-word terms. In this paper we present a comparison of five such algorithms and propose a combined approach using a voting mechanism. We evaluated the six approaches using two different corpora and show how the voting algorithm performs best on one corpus (a collection of texts from Wikipedia) and less well using the Genia corpus (a standard life science corpus). This indicates that choice and design of corpus has a major impact on the evaluation of term recognition algorithms. Our experiments also showed that single-word terms can be equally important and occupy a fairly large proportion in certain domains. As a result, algorithms that ignore single-word terms may cause problems to tasks built on top of ATR. Effective ATR systems also need to take into account both the unstructured text and the structured aspects and this means information extraction techniques need to be integrated into the term recognition process.

A Bayesian formulation of search, control and the exploration/exploitation trade-off

A new approach to optimisation is introduced based on a precise probabilistic statement of what is ideally required of an optimisation method. It is convenient to express the formalism in terms of the control of a stationary environment. This leads to an objective function for the controller which unifies the objectives of exploration and exploitation, thereby providing a quantitative principle for managing this trade-off. This is demonstrated using a variant of the multi-armed bandit problem. This approach opens new possibilities for optimisation algorithms, particularly by using neural network or other adaptive methods for the adaptive controller. It also opens possibilities for deepening understanding of existing methods. The realisation of these possibilities requires research into practical approximations of the exact formalism.

Exploring ant-based algorithms for gene expression data analysis

Objective: Recently, much research has been proposed using nature inspired algorithms to perform complex machine learning tasks. Ant colony optimization (ACO) is one such algorithm based on swarm intelligence and is derived from a model inspired by the collective foraging behavior of ants. Taking advantage of the ACO in traits such as self-organization and robustness, this paper investigates ant-based algorithms for gene expression data clustering and associative classification. Methods and material: An ant-based clustering (Ant-C) and an ant-based association rule mining (Ant-ARM) algorithms are proposed for gene expression data analysis. The proposed algorithms make use of the natural behavior of ants such as cooperation and adaptation to allow for a flexible robust search for a good candidate solution. Results: Ant-C has been tested on the three datasets selected from the Stanford Genomic Resource Database and achieved relatively high accuracy compared to other classical clustering methods. Ant-ARM has been tested on the acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL)/acute myeloid leukemia (AML) dataset and generated about 30 classification rules with high accuracy. Conclusions: Ant-C can generate optimal number of clusters without incorporating any other algorithms such as K-means or agglomerative hierarchical clustering. For associative classification, while a few of the well-known algorithms such as Apriori, FP-growth and Magnum Opus are unable to mine any association rules from the ALL/AML dataset within a reasonable period of time, Ant-ARM is able to extract associative classification rules.

Exposing market mechanism design trade-offs via multi-objective evolutionary search

Market mechanisms are a means by which resources in contention can be allocated between contending parties, both in human economies and those populated by software agents. Designing such mechanisms has traditionally been carried out by hand, and more recently by automation. Assessing these mechanisms typically involves them being evaluated with respect to multiple conflicting objectives, which can often be nonlinear, noisy, and expensive to compute. For typical performance objectives, it is known that designed mechanisms often fall short on being optimal across all objectives simultaneously. However, in all previous automated approaches, either only a single objective is considered, or else the multiple performance objectives are combined into a single objective. In this paper we do not aggregate objectives, instead considering a direct, novel application of multi-objective evolutionary algorithms (MOEAs) to the problem of automated mechanism design. This allows the automatic discovery of trade-offs that such objectives impose on mechanisms. We pose the problem of mechanism design, specifically for the class of linear redistribution mechanisms, as a naturally existing multi-objective optimisation problem. We apply a modified version of NSGA-II in order to design mechanisms within this class, given economically relevant objectives such as welfare and fairness. This application of NSGA-II exposes tradeoffs between objectives, revealing relationships between them that were otherwise unknown for this mechanism class. The understanding of the trade-off gained from the application of MOEAs can thus help practitioners with an insightful application of discovered mechanisms in their respective real/artificial markets.

Self-adapting parallel metric-space search engine for variable query loads

This research focuses on automatically adapting a search engine size in response to fluctuations in query workload. Deploying a search engine in an Infrastructure as a Service (IaaS) cloud facilitates allocating or deallocating computer resources to or from the engine. Our solution is to contribute an adaptive search engine that will repeatedly re-evaluate its load and, when appropriate, switch over to a dierent number of active processors. We focus on three aspects and break them out into three sub-problems as follows: Continually determining the Number of Processors (CNP), New Grouping Problem (NGP) and Regrouping Order Problem (ROP). CNP means that (in the light of the changes in the query workload in the search engine) there is a problem of determining the ideal number of processors p active at any given time to use in the search engine and we call this problem CNP. NGP happens when changes in the number of processors are determined and it must also be determined which groups of search data will be distributed across the processors. ROP is how to redistribute this data onto processors while keeping the engine responsive and while also minimising the switchover time and the incurred network load. We propose solutions for these sub-problems. For NGP we propose an algorithm for incrementally adjusting the index to t the varying number of virtual machines. For ROP we present an ecient method for redistributing data among processors while keeping the search engine responsive. Regarding the solution for CNP, we propose an algorithm determining the new size of the search engine by re-evaluating its load. We tested the solution performance using a custom-build prototype search engine deployed in the Amazon EC2 cloud. Our experiments show that when we compare our NGP solution with computing the index from scratch, the incremental algorithm speeds up the index computation 2{10 times while maintaining a similar search performance. The chosen redistribution method is 25% to 50% faster than other methods and reduces the network load around by 30%. For CNP we present a deterministic algorithm that shows a good ability to determine a new size of search engine. When combined, these algorithms give an adapting algorithm that is able to adjust the search engine size with a variable workload.