Serial correlation in the returns of UK capitalization based portfolios

This article examines whether UK portfolio returns are time varying so that expected returns follow an AR(1) process as proposed by Conrad and Kaul for the USA. It explores this hypothesis for four portfolios that have been formed on the basis of market capitalization. The portfolio returns are modelled using a kalman filter signal extraction model in which the unobservable expected return is the state variable and is allowed to evolve as a stationary first order autoregressive process. It finds that this model is a good representation of returns and can account for most of the autocorrelation present in observed portfolio returns. This study concludes that UK portfolio returns are time varying and the nature of the time variation appears to introduce a substantial amount of autocorrelation to portfolio returns. Like Conrad and Kaul if finds a link between the extent to which portfolio returns are time varying and the size of firms within a portfolio but not the monotonic one found for the USA.

Mechanisms for triggering high-voltage breakdown in vacuum

The electrical and optical characteristics of a cylindrical alumina insulator (94% Al203) have been measured under ultra-high vacuum (P < 10-8 mBar) conditions. A high-resolution CCD camera was used to make real-time optical recordings of DC prebreakdown luminescence from the ceramic, under conditions where DC current magnitudes were limited to less than 50μA. Two concentric metallized rings formed a pair of co-axial electrodes, on the end-face of the alumina tube; a third 'transparent' electrode was employed to study the effect of an orthogonal electric field upon the radial conduction processes within the metallized alumina specimen. The wavelength-spectra of the emitted light was quantified using a high-speed scanning monochromator and photo-multiplier tube detector. Concurrent electrical measurements were made alongside the recording of optical-emission images. An observed time-dependence of the photon-emission is correlated with a time-variation observed in the DC current-voltage characteristics of the alumina. Optical images were also recorded of pulsed-field surface-flashover events on the alumina ceramic. An intensified high-speed video technique provided 1ms frames of surface-flashover events, whilst 100ns frames were achieved using an ultra high-speed fast-framing camera. By coupling this fast-frame camera to a digital storage oscilloscope, it was possible to establish a temporal correlation between the application of a voltage-pulse to the ceramic and the evolution of photonic emissions from the subsequent surface-flashover event. The electro-optical DC prebreakdown characteristics of the alumina are discussed in terms of solid-state photon-emission processes, that are believed to arise from radiative electron-recombination at vacancy-defects and substitutional impurity centres within the surface-layers of the ceramic. The physical nature of vacancy-defects within an alumina dielectric is extensively explored, with a particular focus placed upon the trapped electron energy-levels that may be present at these defect centres. Finally, consideration is given to the practical application of alumina in the trigger-ceramic of a sealed triggered vacuum gap (TVG) switch. For this purpose, a physical model describing the initiation of electrical breakdown within the TVG regime is proposed, and is based upon the explosive destabilisation of trapped charge within the alumina ceramic, triggering the onset of surface-flashover along the insulator. In the main-gap prebreakdown phase, it is suggested that the electrical-breakdown of the TVG is initiated by the low-field 'stripping' of prebreakdown electrons from vacancy-defects in the ceramic under the influence of an orthogonal main-gap electric field.

Serial correlation in the returns of UK capitalization based portfolios

This article examines whether UK portfolio returns are time varying so that expected returns follow an AR(1) process as proposed by Conrad and Kaul for the USA. It explores this hypothesis for four portfolios that have been formed on the basis of market capitalization. The portfolio returns are modelled using a kalman filter signal extraction model in which the unobservable expected return is the state variable and is allowed to evolve as a stationary first order autoregressive process. It finds that this model is a good representation of returns and can account for most of the autocorrelation present in observed portfolio returns. This study concludes that UK portfolio returns are time varying and the nature of the time variation appears to introduce a substantial amount of autocorrelation to portfolio returns. Like Conrad and Kaul if finds a link between the extent to which portfolio returns are time varying and the size of firms within a portfolio but not the monotonic one found for the USA. © 2004 Taylor and Francis Ltd.

Time-dependent variation of fiber Bragg grating reflectivity in PMMA-based polymer optical fibers

In this paper we investigate the effects of viscoelasticity on both the strength and resonance wavelength of two fibre Bragg gratings (FBGs) inscribed in microstructured polymer optical fibre (mPOF) made of undoped PMMA. Both FBGs were inscribed under a strain of 1% in order to increase the material photosensitivity. After the inscription the strain was released and the FBGs spectra were monitored. We initially observed a decrease of the reflection down to zero after which it began to increase. After that, strain tests were carried out to confirm the results and finally the gratings were monitored for a further 120 days, with a stable reflection response being observed beyond 50 days.

Variation and change in the use of hesitation markers in Germanic languages

In this study, we investigate crosslinguistic patterns in the alternation between UM, a hesitation marker consisting of a neutral vowel followed by a final labial nasal, and UH, a hesitation marker consisting of a neutral vowel in an open syllable. Based on a quantitative analysis of a range of spoken and written corpora, we identify clear and consistent patterns of change in the use of these forms in various Germanic languages (English, Dutch, German, Norwegian, Danish, Faroese) and dialects (American English, British English), with the use of UM increasing over time relative to the use of UH. We also find that this pattern of change is generally led by women and more educated speakers. Finally, we propose a series of possible explanations for this surprising change in hesitation marker usage that is currently taking place across Germanic languages.

Effects of the rate of formant-frequency variation on the grouping of formants in speech perception

How speech is separated perceptually from other speech remains poorly understood. Recent research suggests that the ability of an extraneous formant to impair intelligibility depends on the modulation of its frequency, but not its amplitude, contour. This study further examined the effect of formant-frequency variation on intelligibility by manipulating the rate of formant-frequency change. Target sentences were synthetic three-formant (F1?+?F2?+?F3) analogues of natural utterances. Perceptual organization was probed by presenting stimuli dichotically (F1?+?F2C?+?F3C; F2?+?F3), where F2C?+?F3C constitute a competitor for F2 and F3 that listeners must reject to optimize recognition. Competitors were derived using formant-frequency contours extracted from extended passages spoken by the same talker and processed to alter the rate of formant-frequency variation, such that rate scale factors relative to the target sentences were 0, 0.25, 0.5, 1, 2, and 4 (0?=?constant frequencies). Competitor amplitude contours were either constant, or time-reversed and rate-adjusted in parallel with the frequency contour. Adding a competitor typically reduced intelligibility; this reduction increased with competitor rate until the rate was at least twice that of the target sentences. Similarity in the results for the two amplitude conditions confirmed that formant amplitude contours do not influence across-formant grouping. The findings indicate that competitor efficacy is not tuned to the rate of the target sentences; most probably, it depends primarily on the overall rate of frequency variation in the competitor formants. This suggests that, when segregating the speech of concurrent talkers, differences in speech rate may not be a significant cue for across-frequency grouping of formants.

Variation in Miscanthus chemical composition and implications for conversion by pyrolysis and thermo-chemical bio-refining for fuels and chemicals

Different species and genotypes of Miscanthus were analysed to determine the influence of genotypic variation and harvest time on cell wall composition and the products which may be refined via pyrolysis. Wet chemical, thermo-gravimetric (TGA) and pyrolysis-gas chromatography–mass spectrometry (Py-GC–MS) methods were used to identify the main pyrolysis products and determine the extent to which genotypic differences in cell wall composition influence the range and yield of pyrolysis products. Significant genotypic variation in composition was identified between species and genotypes, and a clear relationship was observed between the biomass composition, yields of pyrolysis products, and the composition of the volatile fraction. Results indicated that genotypes other than the commercially cultivated Miscanthus x giganteus may have greater potential for use in bio-refining of fuels and chemicals and several genotypes were identified as excellent candidates for the generation of genetic mapping families and the breeding of new genotypes with improved conversion quality characteristics.

Radical or not so radical? Tactical variation in core policy formation by the Front National

Starting from a number of general tenets about radical political parties, this article examines the Front National (FN) in relation to its core policy issue of immigration. To what extent has FN immigration policy been defined from the outset by its radicalism? Has that radicalism been constant or variable over time? And how far can a reciprocal influence be detected between the FN and the center Right in immigration policy formulation? Focusing on election campaigns, manifestos, and key moments in the FN's evolution, the article assesses how the party has tailored its radicalism to contextual factors and tactical considerations. It reveals an FN less bound to a fixed policy and more ready to seek accommodation (with circumstance, public opinion, or the center Right) than is generally acknowledged. Conversely, it also assesses how the FN's mobilization of strong support on the immigration issue has had radicalizing effects on the center Right. The article concludes by considering whether the change of leadership in January 2011 might confine the FN to the radical Right or see it adopt a more center-oriented course.

Understanding U.S. regional linguistic variation with Twitter data analysis

We analyze a Big Data set of geo-tagged tweets for a year (Oct. 2013–Oct. 2014) to understand the regional linguistic variation in the U.S. Prior work on regional linguistic variations usually took a long time to collect data and focused on either rural or urban areas. Geo-tagged Twitter data offers an unprecedented database with rich linguistic representation of fine spatiotemporal resolution and continuity. From the one-year Twitter corpus, we extract lexical characteristics for twitter users by summarizing the frequencies of a set of lexical alternations that each user has used. We spatially aggregate and smooth each lexical characteristic to derive county-based linguistic variables, from which orthogonal dimensions are extracted using the principal component analysis (PCA). Finally a regionalization method is used to discover hierarchical dialect regions using the PCA components. The regionalization results reveal interesting linguistic regional variations in the U.S. The discovered regions not only confirm past research findings in the literature but also provide new insights and a more detailed understanding of very recent linguistic patterns in the U.S.

Delay of light in an optical bottle resonator with nanoscale radius variation : dispersionless, broadband, and low-loss

It is shown theoretically that an optical bottle resonator with a nanoscale radius variation can perform a multinanosecond long dispersionless delay of light in a nanometer-order bandwidth with minimal losses. Experimentally, a 3 mm long resonator with a 2.8 nm deep semiparabolic radius variation is fabricated from a 19??µm radius silica fiber with a subangstrom precision. In excellent agreement with theory, the resonator exhibits the impedance-matched 2.58 ns (3 bytes) delay of 100 ps pulses with 0.44??dB/ns intrinsic loss. This is a miniature slow light delay line with the record large delay time, record small transmission loss, dispersion, and effective speed of light.

Formant-frequency variation and its effects on across-formant grouping in speech perception

How speech is separated perceptually from other speech remains poorly understood. In a series of experiments, perceptual organisation was probed by presenting three-formant (F1+F2+F3) analogues of target sentences dichotically, together with a competitor for F2 (F2C), or for F2+F3, which listeners must reject to optimise recognition. To control for energetic masking, the competitor was always presented in the opposite ear to the corresponding target formant(s). Sine-wave speech was used initially, and different versions of F2C were derived from F2 using separate manipulations of its amplitude and frequency contours. F2Cs with time-varying frequency contours were highly effective competitors, whatever their amplitude characteristics, whereas constant-frequency F2Cs were ineffective. Subsequent studies used synthetic-formant speech to explore the effects of manipulating the rate and depth of formant-frequency change in the competitor. Competitor efficacy was not tuned to the rate of formant-frequency variation in the target sentences; rather, the reduction in intelligibility increased with competitor rate relative to the rate for the target sentences. Therefore, differences in speech rate may not be a useful cue for separating the speech of concurrent talkers. Effects of competitors whose depth of formant-frequency variation was scaled by a range of factors were explored using competitors derived either by inverting the frequency contour of F2 about its geometric mean (plausibly speech-like pattern) or by using a regular and arbitrary frequency contour (triangle wave, not plausibly speech-like) matched to the average rate and depth of variation for the inverted F2C. Competitor efficacy depended on the overall depth of frequency variation, not depth relative to that for the other formants. Furthermore, the triangle-wave competitors were as effective as their more speech-like counterparts. Overall, the results suggest that formant-frequency variation is critical for the across-frequency grouping of formants but that this grouping does not depend on speech-specific constraints.

Delay of light in an optical bottle resonator with nanoscale radius variation:dispersionless, broadband, and low-loss

It is shown theoretically that an optical bottle resonator with a nanoscale radius variation can perform a multinanosecond long dispersionless delay of light in a nanometer-order bandwidth with minimal losses. Experimentally, a 3 mm long resonator with a 2.8 nm deep semiparabolic radius variation is fabricated from a 19??µm radius silica fiber with a subangstrom precision. In excellent agreement with theory, the resonator exhibits the impedance-matched 2.58 ns (3 bytes) delay of 100 ps pulses with 0.44??dB/ns intrinsic loss. This is a miniature slow light delay line with the record large delay time, record small transmission loss, dispersion, and effective speed of light.

Benefits of retailer-supplier partnership initiatives under time-varying demand:a comparative analytical study

This paper aims to help supply chain managers to determine the value of retailer-supplier partnership initiatives beyond information sharing (IS) according to their specific business environment under time-varying demand conditions. For this purpose, we use integer linear programming models to quantify the benefits that can be accrued by a retailer, a supplier and system as a whole from shift in inventory ownership and shift in decision-making power with that of IS. The results of a detailed numerical study pertaining to static time horizon reveal that the shift in inventory ownership provides system-wide cost benefits in specific settings. Particularly, when it induces the retailer to order larger quantities and the supplier also prefers such orders due to significantly high setup and shipment costs. We observe that the relative benefits of shift in decision-making power are always higher than the shift in inventory ownership under all the conditions. The value of the shift in decision-making power is greater than IS particularly when the variability of underlying demand is low and time-dependent variation in production cost is high. However, when the shipment cost is negligible and order issuing efficiency of the supplier is low, the cost benefits of shift in decision-making power beyond IS are not significant. © 2012 Taylor & Francis.

Formant-frequency variation and its effects on across-formant grouping in speech perception

How speech is separated perceptually from other speech remains poorly understood. In a series of experiments, perceptual organisation was probed by presenting three-formant (F1+F2+F3) analogues of target sentences dichotically, together with a competitor for F2 (F2C), or for F2+F3, which listeners must reject to optimise recognition. To control for energetic masking, the competitor was always presented in the opposite ear to the corresponding target formant(s). Sine-wave speech was used initially, and different versions of F2C were derived from F2 using separate manipulations of its amplitude and frequency contours. F2Cs with time-varying frequency contours were highly effective competitors, whatever their amplitude characteristics, whereas constant-frequency F2Cs were ineffective. Subsequent studies used synthetic-formant speech to explore the effects of manipulating the rate and depth of formant-frequency change in the competitor. Competitor efficacy was not tuned to the rate of formant-frequency variation in the target sentences; rather, the reduction in intelligibility increased with competitor rate relative to the rate for the target sentences. Therefore, differences in speech rate may not be a useful cue for separating the speech of concurrent talkers. Effects of competitors whose depth of formant-frequency variation was scaled by a range of factors were explored using competitors derived either by inverting the frequency contour of F2 about its geometric mean (plausibly speech-like pattern) or by using a regular and arbitrary frequency contour (triangle wave, not plausibly speech-like) matched to the average rate and depth of variation for the inverted F2C. Competitor efficacy depended on the overall depth of frequency variation, not depth relative to that for the other formants. Furthermore, the triangle-wave competitors were as effective as their more speech-like counterparts. Overall, the results suggest that formant-frequency variation is critical for the across-frequency grouping of formants but that this grouping does not depend on speech-specific constraints. © Springer Science+Business Media New York 2013.

Sympathetic control of accommodation:evidence for inter-subject variation

Autonomic innervation of ciliary smooth muscle is mediated principally by the parasympathetic nervous system and is supplemented by the sympathetic nervous system. Previous drug and nerve stimulation experiments on humans and animals have demonstrated that sympathetic innervation is inhibitory (via β-2 adrenoceptors), relatively small, slow and augmented by concurrent levels of background parasympathetic activity. These characteristics are pertinent to the sympathetic system having a specific role in our ability to adapt successfully to sustained near vision tasks and, given the clear association between near vision and the onset and development of myopia, to a putative aetiological role in myopia development in pre-disposed individuals. A fifth characteristic, namely the variation between individuals in access to an inhibitory sympathetic facility is therefore of particular interest. A novel method for continuous recording of accommodation, currently employed in a large sample longitudinal study of myopia in young adults, was used following topical instillation of non-selective (timolol) and selective (betaxolol) sympathetic β-adrenoceptor antagonists. Measures of post-task accommodative hysteresis were taken with reference to the time-course of regression of accommodation when open-loop (Difference of Gaussian) conditions were immediately imposed following short (10 s) and long (3 min) duration far (0D) and near (3D above tonic level) tasks viewed through a Badal system. Data confirm earlier informal experimental observations that only one in three individuals are likely to have access to a sympathetic inhibitory facility during sustained near vision. © 2002 The College of Optometrists.