Project risk management:a combined analytic hierarchy process and decision tree approach

Time, cost and quality achievements on large-scale construction projects are uncertain because of technological constraints, involvement of many stakeholders, long durations, large capital requirements and improper scope definitions. Projects that are exposed to such an uncertain environment can effectively be managed with the application of risk management throughout the project life cycle. Risk is by nature subjective. However, managing risk subjectively poses the danger of non-achievement of project goals. Moreover, risk analysis of the overall project also poses the danger of developing inappropriate responses. This article demonstrates a quantitative approach to construction risk management through an analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and decision tree analysis. The entire project is classified to form a few work packages. With the involvement of project stakeholders, risky work packages are identified. As all the risk factors are identified, their effects are quantified by determining probability (using AHP) and severity (guess estimate). Various alternative responses are generated, listing the cost implications of mitigating the quantified risks. The expected monetary values are derived for each alternative in a decision tree framework and subsequent probability analysis helps to make the right decision in managing risks. In this article, the entire methodology is explained by using a case application of a cross-country petroleum pipeline project in India. The case study demonstrates the project management effectiveness of using AHP and DTA.

Role of endothelial Nox2 NADPH oxidase in angiotensin II-induced hypertension and vasomotor dysfunction

NADPH oxidase (Nox)-derived reactive oxygen species (ROS) are known to be involved in angiotensin II-induced hypertension and endothelial dysfunction. Several Nox isoforms are expressed in the vessel wall, among which Nox2 is especially abundant in the endothelium. Endothelial Nox2 levels rise during hypertension but little is known about the cell-specific role of endothelial Nox2 in vivo. To address this question, we generated transgenic mice with endothelial-specific overexpression of Nox2 (Tg) and studied the effects on endothelial function and blood pressure. Tg had an about twofold increase in endothelial Nox2 levels which was accompanied by an increase in p22phox levels but no change in levels of other Nox isoforms or endothelial nitric oxide synthase (eNOS). Basal NADPH oxidase activity, endothelial function and blood pressure were unaltered in Tg compared to wild-type littermates. Angiotensin II caused a greater increase in ROS production in Tg compared to wild-type aorta and attenuated acetylcholine-induced vasorelaxation. Both low and high dose chronic angiotensin II infusion increased telemetric ambulatory blood pressure more in Tg compared to wild-type, but with different patterns of BP change and aortic remodeling depending upon the dose of angiotensin II dose. These results indicate that an increase in endothelial Nox2 levels contributes to angiotensin II-induced endothelial dysfunction, vascular remodeling and hypertension. © 2011 The Author(s).

Controlled synthesis and processing of a poly(L-lactide-co-ε-caprolactone) copolymer for biomedical use as an absorbable monofilament surgical suture

Poly(L-lactide-co-ε-caprolactone) 75:25% mol, P(LL-co-CL), was synthesized via bulk ring-opening polymerisation (ROP) using a novel tin(II)alkoxide initiator, [Sn(Oct)]2DEG, at 130oC for 48 hrs. The effectiveness of this initiator was compared withthe well-known conventional tin(II) octoateinitiator, Sn(Oct)2. The P(LL-co-CL) copolymersobtained were characterized using a combination of analytical technique including: nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy (NMR), differential scanning calorimetry (DSC), thermogravimetry (TG) and gel permeation chromatography (GPC). The P(LL-co-CL) was melt-spun into monofilament fibres of uniform diameter and smooth surface appearance. Modification of the matrix morphology was then built into the as-spun fibresvia a series of controlled off-line annealing and hot-drawing steps. © (2014) Trans Tech Publications, Switzerland.

Abnormal retinal vascular reactivity in individuals with impaired glucose tolerance:a preliminary study

To investigate the relationship between vascular function parameters measured at the retinal and systemic level and known markers for cardiovascular risk in patients with impaired glucose tolerance (IGT). Sixty age- and gender- matched White-European adults (30 IGT and 30 normal glucose tolerance -NGT) were recruited for the study. Fasting plasma glucose, lipids and 24-hour blood pressure (BP) was measured in all subjects. Systemic vascular and endothelial function was assessed using carotid-artery intimal media thickness (cIMT) and flow mediated dilation (FMD). Retinal vascular reactivity was assessed by the Dynamic Retinal Vessel Analyser (DVA). Additionally, blood glutathione (GSH, GSSG and tGSH) and plasma von-Willebrand (vWF) factor levels were also measured. Individuals with IGT demonstrated higher BP values (p<0.001), fasting TG and TG:HDL ratios (p<0.001) than NGT subjects. Furthermore, Total:HDL-C ratios and Framingham scores were raised (p=0.010 and p<0.001 respectively). Blood glutathione levels (GSH, GSSG and tGSH) were lower (p<0.001, p=0.039 and p<0.001 respectively) while plasma vWF was increased (p=0.014) in IGT subjects compared to controls. IGT individuals also demonstrated higher IMT in right and left carotid arteries (p=0.017 and p=0.005, respectively) alongside larger brachial artery diameter (p=0.015), lower FMD% (p=0.026) and GTN induced dilation (GID) (p=0.012) than healthy controls. At the retinal arterial level, the IGT subjects showed higher baseline fluctuations (BDF) (p=0.026), longer reaction time (RT) (p=0.032) and reduced baseline-corrected flicker response (bFR) (p=0.045). In IGT subjects retinal BDF correlated with and Total:HDL (p= 0.003) and HDL-C (p= 0.004). Arterial RT also correlated with FMD (p=0.017) in IGT but not NGT subjects. In IGT individuals there is a relationship between macro- and microvascular function, as well as a direct correlation between the observed retinal microcirculatory changes and established plasma markers for CVD. Multifactorial preventive interventions to decrease vascular risk in these individuals should be considered.

Monitoring of deployment process of shape memory polymers for morphing structures with embedded fibre Bragg grating sensors

This article demonstrates the use of embedded fibre Bragg gratings as vector bending sensor to monitor two-dimensional shape deformation of a shape memory polymer plate. The shape memory polymer plate was made by using thermal-responsive epoxy-based shape memory polymer materials, and the two fibre Bragg grating sensors were orthogonally embedded, one on the top and the other on the bottom layer of the plate, in order to measure the strain distribution in both longitudinal and transverse directions separately and also with temperature reference. When the shape memory polymer plate was bent at different angles, the Bragg wavelengths of the embedded fibre Bragg gratings showed a red-shift of 50 pm/°caused by the bent-induced tensile strain on the plate surface. The finite element method was used to analyse the stress distribution for the whole shape recovery process. The strain transfer rate between the shape memory polymer and optical fibre was also calculated from the finite element method and determined by experimental results, which was around 0.25. During the experiment, the embedded fibre Bragg gratings showed very high temperature sensitivity due to the high thermal expansion coefficient of the shape memory polymer, which was around 108.24 pm/°C below the glass transition temperature (Tg) and 47.29 pm/°C above Tg. Therefore, the orthogonal arrangement of the two fibre Bragg grating sensors could provide a temperature compensation function, as one of the fibre Bragg gratings only measures the temperature while the other is subjected to the directional deformation. © The Author(s) 2013.

Systemic circulatory influences on retinal microvascular function in middle-age individuals with low to moderate cardiovascular risk

Purpose: To investigate the relationship between retinal microvascular reactivity, circulatory markers for CVD risk and systemic antioxidative defence capacity in healthy middle-aged individuals with low to moderate risk of CVD. Methods: Retinal vascular reactivity to flickering light was assessed in 102 healthy participants (46-60 years) by means of dynamic retinal vessel analysis (DVA). Other vascular assessments included carotid intima-media thickness (C-IMT) and blood pressure (BP) measurements. Total cholesterol (CHOL), high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C), low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), triglycerides (TG) and blood glutathione levels in its reduced (GSH) and oxidized (GSSG) forms were also determined for each participant, along with Framingham risk scores (FRS). Results: Retinal arterial baseline diameter fluctuation (BDF) was independently, significantly and negatively influenced by LDL-C levels (β = -0.53, p = 0.027). Moreover, the arterial dilation slope (SlopeAD) was independently, significantly and positively associated with redox index (GSH: GSSG ratio, β = 0.28, p = 0.016), while the arterial constriction slope (SlopeAC) was significantly and negatively influenced by blood GSH levels (β = -0.20, p = 0.042), and positively associated with FRS (β = 0.25, p = 0.009). Venous BDF and dilation amplitude (DA) were also negatively influenced by plasma LDL-C levels (β = -0.83, p = 0.013; and β = -0.22, p = 0.028, respectively). Conclusions: In otherwise healthy individuals with low to moderate cardiovascular risk, retinal microvascular dilation and constriction responses to stress levels are influenced by systemic antioxidant capacity, and circulating markers for cardiovascular risk.

Study on the pyrolytic behaviour of xylan-based hemicellulose using TG-FTIR and Py-GC-FTIR

Two sets of experiments, categorized as TG–FTIR and Py–GC–FTIR, are employed to investigate the mechanism of the hemicellulose pyrolysis and the formation of main gaseous and bio-oil products. The “sharp mass loss stage” and the corresponding evolution of the volatile products are examined by the TG–FTIR graphs at the heating rate of 3–80 K/min. A pyrolysis unit, composed of fluidized bed reactor, carbon filter, vapour condensing system and gas storage, is employed to investigate the products of the hemicellulose pyrolysis under different temperatures (400–690 °C) at the feeding flow rate of 600 l/h. The effects of temperature on the condensable products are examined thoroughly. The possible routes for the formation of the products are systematically proposed from the primary decomposition of the three types of unit (xylan, O-acetylxylan and 4-O-methylglucuronic acid) and the secondary reactions of the fragments. It is found that the formation of CO is enhanced with elevated temperature, while slight change is observed for the yield of CO2 which is the predominant products in the gaseous mixture.