Quantifying evidence for forensic authorship analysis

The judicial interest in ‘scientific’ evidence has driven recent work to quantify results for forensic linguistic authorship analysis. Through a methodological discussion and a worked example this paper examines the issues which complicate attempts to quantify results in work. The solution suggested to some of the difficulties is a sampling and testing strategy which helps to identify potentially useful, valid and reliable markers of authorship. An important feature of the sampling strategy is that these markers identified as being generally valid and reliable are retested for use in specific authorship analysis cases. The suggested approach for drawing quantified conclusions combines discriminant function analysis and Bayesian likelihood measures. The worked example starts with twenty comparison texts for each of three potential authors and then uses a progressively smaller comparison corpus, reducing to fifteen, ten, five and finally three texts per author. This worked example demonstrates how reducing the amount of data affects the way conclusions can be drawn. With greater numbers of reference texts quantified and safe attributions are shown to be possible, but as the number of reference texts reduces the analysis shows how the conclusion which should be reached is that no attribution can be made. The testing process at no point results in instances of a misattribution.

A novel silicon membrane-based biosensing platform using distributive sensing strategy and artificial neural networks for feature analysis

A novel biosensing system based on a micromachined rectangular silicon membrane is proposed and investigated in this paper. A distributive sensing scheme is designed to monitor the dynamics of the sensing structure. An artificial neural network is used to process the measured data and to identify cell presence and density. Without specifying any particular bio-application, the investigation is mainly concentrated on the performance testing of this kind of biosensor as a general biosensing platform. The biosensing experiments on the microfabricated membranes involve seeding different cell densities onto the sensing surface of membrane, and measuring the corresponding dynamics information of each tested silicon membrane in the form of a series of frequency response functions (FRFs). All of those experiments are carried out in cell culture medium to simulate a practical working environment. The EA.hy 926 endothelial cell lines are chosen in this paper for the bio-experiments. The EA.hy 926 endothelial cell lines represent a particular class of biological particles that have irregular shapes, non-uniform density and uncertain growth behaviour, which are difficult to monitor using the traditional biosensors. The final predicted results reveal that the methodology of a neural-network based algorithm to perform the feature identification of cells from distributive sensory measurement has great potential in biosensing applications.

Modelling in the evaluation of a manufacturing strategy

This thesis describes research that has developed the principles of a modelling tool for the analytical evaluation of a manufacturing strategy. The appropriate process of manufacturing strategy formulation is based on mental synthesis with formal planning processes supporting this role. Inherent to such processes is a stage where the effects of alternative strategies on the performance of a manufacturing system must be evaluated so that a choice of preferred strategy can be made. Invariably this evaluation is carried out by practitioners applying mechanisms of judgement, bargaining and analysis. Ibis thesis makes a significant and original contribution to the provision of analytical support for practitioners in this role. The research programme commences by defining the requirements of analytical strategy evaluation from the perspective of practitioners. A broad taxonomy of models has been used to identify a set of potentially suitable techniques for the strategy evaluation task. Then, where possible, unsuitable modelling techniques have been identified on the basis of evidence in the literature and discarded from this set. The remaining modelling techniques have been critically appraised by testing representative contemporary modelling tools in an industrially based experimentation programme. The results show that individual modelling techniques exhibit various limitations in the strategy evaluation role, though some combinations do appear to provide the necessary functionality. On the basis of this comprehensive and in-depth knowledge a modelling tool ' has been specifically designed for this task. Further experimental testing has then been conducted to verify the principles of this modelling tool. Ibis research has bridged the fields of manufacturing strategy formulation and manufacturing systems modelling and makes two contributions to knowledge. Firstly, a comprehensive and in-depth platform of knowledge has been established about modelling techniques in manufacturing strategy evaluation. Secondly, the principles of a tool that supports this role have been formed and verified.

Rapid testing for group B streptococcus during labour: a test accuracy study with evaluation of acceptability and cost-effectiveness

OBJECTIVE: To determine the accuracy, acceptability and cost-effectiveness of polymerase chain reaction (PCR) and optical immunoassay (OIA) rapid tests for maternal group B streptococcal (GBS) colonisation at labour. DESIGN: A test accuracy study was used to determine the accuracy of rapid tests for GBS colonisation of women in labour. Acceptability of testing to participants was evaluated through a questionnaire administered after delivery, and acceptability to staff through focus groups. A decision-analytic model was constructed to assess the cost-effectiveness of various screening strategies. SETTING: Two large obstetric units in the UK. PARTICIPANTS: Women booked for delivery at the participating units other than those electing for a Caesarean delivery. INTERVENTIONS: Vaginal and rectal swabs were obtained at the onset of labour and the results of vaginal and rectal PCR and OIA (index) tests were compared with the reference standard of enriched culture of combined vaginal and rectal swabs. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The accuracy of the index tests, the relative accuracies of tests on vaginal and rectal swabs and whether test accuracy varied according to the presence or absence of maternal risk factors. RESULTS: PCR was significantly more accurate than OIA for the detection of maternal GBS colonisation. Combined vaginal or rectal swab index tests were more sensitive than either test considered individually [combined swab sensitivity for PCR 84% (95% CI 79-88%); vaginal swab 58% (52-64%); rectal swab 71% (66-76%)]. The highest sensitivity for PCR came at the cost of lower specificity [combined specificity 87% (95% CI 85-89%); vaginal swab 92% (90-94%); rectal swab 92% (90-93%)]. The sensitivity and specificity of rapid tests varied according to the presence or absence of maternal risk factors, but not consistently. PCR results were determinants of neonatal GBS colonisation, but maternal risk factors were not. Overall levels of acceptability for rapid testing amongst participants were high. Vaginal swabs were more acceptable than rectal swabs. South Asian women were least likely to have participated in the study and were less happy with the sampling procedure and with the prospect of rapid testing as part of routine care. Midwives were generally positive towards rapid testing but had concerns that it might lead to overtreatment and unnecessary interference in births. Modelling analysis revealed that the most cost-effective strategy was to provide routine intravenous antibiotic prophylaxis (IAP) to all women without screening. Removing this strategy, which is unlikely to be acceptable to most women and midwives, resulted in screening, based on a culture test at 35-37 weeks' gestation, with the provision of antibiotics to all women who screened positive being most cost-effective, assuming that all women in premature labour would receive IAP. The results were sensitive to very small increases in costs and changes in other assumptions. Screening using a rapid test was not cost-effective based on its current sensitivity, specificity and cost. CONCLUSIONS: Neither rapid test was sufficiently accurate to recommend it for routine use in clinical practice. IAP directed by screening with enriched culture at 35-37 weeks' gestation is likely to be the most acceptable cost-effective strategy, although it is premature to suggest the implementation of this strategy at present.

Modelling in the evaluation of a manufacturing strategy

This thesis describes research that has developed the principles of a modelling tool for the analytical evaluation of a manufacturing strategy. The appropriate process of manufacturing strategy formulation is based on mental synthesis with formal planning processes supporting this role. Inherent to such processes is a stage where the effects of alternative strategies on the performance of a manufacturing system must be evaluated so that a choice of preferred strategy can be made. Invariably this evaluation is carried out by practitioners applying mechanisms of judgement, bargaining and analysis. Ibis thesis makes a significant and original contribution to the provision of analytical support for practitioners in this role. The research programme commences by defining the requirements of analytical strategy evaluation from the perspective of practitioners. A broad taxonomy of models has been used to identify a set of potentially suitable techniques for the strategy evaluation task. Then, where possible, unsuitable modelling techniques have been identified on the basis of evidence in the literature and discarded from this set. The remaining modelling techniques have been critically appraised by testing representative contemporary modelling tools in an industrially based experimentation programme. The results show that individual modelling techniques exhibit various limitations in the strategy evaluation role, though some combinations do appear to provide the necessary functionality. On the basis of this comprehensive and in-depth knowledge a modelling tool ' has been specifically designed for this task. Further experimental testing has then been conducted to verify the principles of this modelling tool. Ibis research has bridged the fields of manufacturing strategy formulation and manufacturing systems modelling and makes two contributions to knowledge. Firstly, a comprehensive and in-depth platform of knowledge has been established about modelling techniques in manufacturing strategy evaluation. Secondly, the principles of a tool that supports this role have been formed and verified.

Modelling in the evaluation of a manufacturing strategy

This thesis describes research that has developed the principles of a modelling tool for the analytical evaluation of a manufacturing strategy. The appropriate process of manufacturing strategy formulation is based on mental synthesis with formal planning processes supporting this role. Inherent to such processes is a stage where the effects of alternative strategies on the performance of a manufacturing system must be evaluated so that a choice of preferred strategy can be made. Invariably this evaluation is carried out by practitioners applying mechanisms of judgement, bargaining and analysis. Ibis thesis makes a significant and original contribution to the provision of analytical support for practitioners in this role. The research programme commences by defining the requirements of analytical strategy evaluation from the perspective of practitioners. A broad taxonomy of models has been used to identify a set of potentially suitable techniques for the strategy evaluation task. Then, where possible, unsuitable modelling techniques have been identified on the basis of evidence in the literature and discarded from this set. The remaining modelling techniques have been critically appraised by testing representative contemporary modelling tools in an industrially based experimentation programme. The results show that individual modelling techniques exhibit various limitations in the strategy evaluation role, though some combinations do appear to provide the necessary functionality. On the basis of this comprehensive and in-depth knowledge a modelling tool ' has been specifically designed for this task. Further experimental testing has then been conducted to verify the principles of this modelling tool. Ibis research has bridged the fields of manufacturing strategy formulation and manufacturing systems modelling and makes two contributions to knowledge. Firstly, a comprehensive and in-depth platform of knowledge has been established about modelling techniques in manufacturing strategy evaluation. Secondly, the principles of a tool that supports this role have been formed and verified.