3 resultados para Susceptible infected susceptible epidemilogical model
em Aston University Research Archive
Resumo:
Soil erosion is one of the most pressing issues facing developing countries. The need for soil erosion assessment is paramount as a successful and productive agricultural base is necessary for economic growth and stability. In Ghana, a country with an expanding population and high potential for economic growth, agriculture is an important resource; however, most of the crop production is restricted to low technology shifting cultivation agriculture. The high intensity seasonal rainfall coincides with the early growing period of many of the crops meaning that plots are very susceptible to erosion, especially on steep sided valleys in the region south of Lake Volta. This research investigated the processes of soil erosion by rainfall with the aim of producing a sediment yield model for a small semi-agricultural catchment in rural Ghana. Various types of modelling techniques were considered to discover those most applicable to the sub-tropical environment of Southern Ghana. Once an appropriate model had been developed and calibrated, the aim was to look at how to enable the scaling up of the model using sub-catchments to calculate sedimentation rates of Lake Volta. An experimental catchment was located in Ghana, south west of Lake Volta, where data on rainstorms and the associated streamflow, sediment loads and soil data (moisture content, classification and particle size distribution) was collected to calibrate the model. Additional data was obtained from the Soil Research Institute in Ghana to explore calibration of the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE, Wischmeier and Smith, 1978) for Ghanaian soils and environment. It was shown that the USLE could be successfully converted to provide meaningful soil loss estimates in the Ghanaian environment. However, due to experimental difficulties, the proposed theory and methodology of the sediment yield model could only be tested in principle. Future work may include validation of the model and subsequent scaling up to estimate sedimentation rates in Lake Volta.
Resumo:
Rheumatoid arthritis (RA) associates with excess cardiovascular risk and there is a need to assess that risk. However, individual lipid levels may be influenced by disease activity and drug use, whereas lipid ratios may be more robust. A cross-sectional cohort of 400 consecutive patients was used to establish factors that influenced individual lipid levels and lipid ratios in RA, using multiple regression models. A further longitudinal cohort of 550 patients with RA was used to confirm these findings, using generalized estimating equations. Cross-sectionally, higher C-reactive protein (CRP) levels correlated with lower levels of total cholesterol (TC), low-density lipoprotein-cholesterol (LDL-C), and high-density lipoprotein-cholesterol ([HDL-C] P = .015), whereas lipid ratios did not correlate with CRP. The findings were broadly replicated in the longitudinal data. In summary, the effects of inflammation on individual lipid levels may underestimate lipid-associated cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk in RA, thus lipid ratios may be more appropriate for CVD risk stratification in RA.
Resumo:
Altered state theories of hypnosis posit that a qualitatively distinct state of mental processing, which emerges in those with high hypnotic susceptibility following a hypnotic induction, enables the generation of anomalous experiences in response to specific hypnotic suggestions. If so then such a state should be observable as a discrete pattern of changes to functional connectivity (shared information) between brain regions following a hypnotic induction in high but not low hypnotically susceptible participants. Twenty-eight channel EEG was recorded from 12 high susceptible (highs) and 11 low susceptible (lows) participants with their eyes closed prior to and following a standard hypnotic induction. The EEG was used to provide a measure of functional connectivity using both coherence (COH) and the imaginary component of coherence (iCOH), which is insensitive to the effects of volume conduction. COH and iCOH were calculated between all electrode pairs for the frequency bands: delta (0.1-3.9 Hz), theta (4-7.9 Hz) alpha (8-12.9 Hz), beta1 (13-19.9 Hz), beta2 (20-29.9 Hz) and gamma (30-45 Hz). The results showed that there was an increase in theta iCOH from the pre-hypnosis to hypnosis condition in highs but not lows with a large proportion of significant links being focused on a central-parietal hub. There was also a decrease in beta1 iCOH from the pre-hypnosis to hypnosis condition with a focus on a fronto-central and an occipital hub that was greater in high compared to low susceptibles. There were no significant differences for COH or for spectral band amplitude in any frequency band. The results are interpreted as indicating that the hypnotic induction elicited a qualitative change in the organization of specific control systems within the brain for high as compared to low susceptible participants. This change in the functional organization of neural networks is a plausible indicator of the much theorized "hypnotic-state". © 2014 Jamieson and Burgess.