Use of medications with anticholinergic activity and self-reported injurious falls in older community-dwelling adults

Objectives: To assess the association between the use of medications with anticholinergic activity and the subsequent risk of injurious falls in older adults. Design: Prospective, population-based study using data from The Irish Longitudinal Study on Ageing. Setting: Irish population. Participants: Community-dwelling men and women without dementia aged 65 and older (N = 2,696). Measurements: Self-reported injurious falls reported once approximately 2 years after baseline interview. Self-reported regular medication use at baseline interview. Pharmacy dispensing records from the Irish Health Service Executive Primary Care Reimbursement Service in a subset (n = 1,553). Results: Nine percent of men and 17% of women reported injurious falls. In men, the use of medications with definite anticholinergic activity was associated with greater risk of subsequent injurious falls (adjusted relative risk (aRR) = 2.55, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.33-4.88), but the risk of having any fall and the number of falls reported were not significantly greater. Greater anticholinergic burden was associated with greater injurious falls risk. No associations were observed for women. Findings were similar using pharmacy dispensing records. The aRR for medications with definite anticholinergic activity dispensed in the month before baseline and subsequent injurious falls in men was 2.53 (95% CI = 1.15-5.54). Conclusion: The regular use of medications with anticholinergic activity is associated with subsequent injurious falls in older men, although falls were self-reported after a 2-year recall and so may have been underreported. Further research is required to validate this finding in men and to consider the effect of duration and dose of anticholinergic medications.

Modulating membership grades to gain consensus for fuzzy set uncertainty values in a clinical decision support system

This paper deals with a very important issue in any knowledge engineering discipline: the accurate representation and modelling of real life data and its processing by human experts. The work is applied to the GRiST Mental Health Risk Screening Tool for assessing risks associated with mental-health problems. The complexity of risk data and the wide variations in clinicians' expert opinions make it difficult to elicit representations of uncertainty that are an accurate and meaningful consensus. It requires integrating each expert's estimation of a continuous distribution of uncertainty across a range of values. This paper describes an algorithm that generates a consensual distribution at the same time as measuring the consistency of inputs. Hence it provides a measure of the confidence in the particular data item's risk contribution at the input stage and can help give an indication of the quality of subsequent risk predictions. © 2010 IEEE.

Project risk management:a combined analytic hierarchy process and decision tree approach

Time, cost and quality achievements on large-scale construction projects are uncertain because of technological constraints, involvement of many stakeholders, long durations, large capital requirements and improper scope definitions. Projects that are exposed to such an uncertain environment can effectively be managed with the application of risk management throughout the project life cycle. Risk is by nature subjective. However, managing risk subjectively poses the danger of non-achievement of project goals. Moreover, risk analysis of the overall project also poses the danger of developing inappropriate responses. This article demonstrates a quantitative approach to construction risk management through an analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and decision tree analysis. The entire project is classified to form a few work packages. With the involvement of project stakeholders, risky work packages are identified. As all the risk factors are identified, their effects are quantified by determining probability (using AHP) and severity (guess estimate). Various alternative responses are generated, listing the cost implications of mitigating the quantified risks. The expected monetary values are derived for each alternative in a decision tree framework and subsequent probability analysis helps to make the right decision in managing risks. In this article, the entire methodology is explained by using a case application of a cross-country petroleum pipeline project in India. The case study demonstrates the project management effectiveness of using AHP and DTA.

Decision support system for risk management:a case study

This study demonstrates a quantitative approach to construction risk management through analytic hierarchy process and decision tree analysis. All the risk factors are identified, their effects are quantified by determining probability and severity, and various alternative responses are generated with cost implication for mitigating the quantified risks. The expected monetary values are then derived for each alternative in a decision tree framework and subsequent probability analysis aids the decision process in managing risks. The entire methodology is explained through a case application of a cross-country petroleum pipeline project in India and its effectiveness in project management is demonstrated.

Risk assessment applied to comsumer products with reference to CE marking machines for use at work

New Approach’ Directives now govern the health and safety of most products whether destined for workplace or domestic use. These Directives have been enacted into UK law by various specific legislation principally relating to work equipment, machinery and consumer products. This research investigates whether the risk assessment approach used to ensure the safety of machinery may be applied to consumer products. Crucially, consumer products are subject to the Consumer Protection Act (CPA) 1987, where there is no direct reference to “assessing risk”. This contrasts with the law governing the safety of products used in the workplace, where risk assessment underpins the approach. New Approach Directives are supported by European harmonised standards, and in the case of machinery, further supported by the risk assessment standard, EN 1050. The system regulating consumer product safety is discussed, its key elements identified and a graphical model produced. This model incorporates such matters as conformity assessment, the system of regulation, near miss and accident reporting. A key finding of the research is that New Approach Directives have a common feature of specifying essential performance requirements that provide a hazard prompt-list that can form the basis for a risk assessment (the hazard identification stage). Drawing upon 272 prosecution cases, and with thirty examples examined in detail, this research provides evidence that despite the high degree of regulation, unsafe consumer products still find their way onto the market. The research presents a number of risk assessment tools to help Trading Standards Officers (TSOs) prioritise their work at the initial inspection stage when dealing with subsequent enforcement action.