The Long-Term impact of Business Support? - Exploring the Role of Evaluation Timing using Micro Data

The original contribution of this work is threefold. Firstly, this thesis develops a critical perspective on current evaluation practice of business support, with focus on the timing of evaluation. The general time frame applied for business support policy evaluation is limited to one to two, seldom three years post intervention. This is despite calls for long-term impact studies by various authors, concerned about time lags before effects are fully realised. This desire for long-term evaluation opposes the requirements by policy-makers and funders, seeking quick results. Also, current ‘best practice’ frameworks do not refer to timing or its implications, and data availability affects the ability to undertake long-term evaluation. Secondly, this thesis provides methodological value for follow-up and similar studies by using data linking of scheme-beneficiary data with official performance datasets. Thus data availability problems are avoided through the use of secondary data. Thirdly, this thesis builds the evidence, through the application of a longitudinal impact study of small business support in England, covering seven years of post intervention data. This illustrates the variability of results for different evaluation periods, and the value in using multiple years of data for a robust understanding of support impact. For survival, impact of assistance is found to be immediate, but limited. Concerning growth, significant impact centres on a two to three year period post intervention for the linear selection and quantile regression models – positive for employment and turnover, negative for productivity. Attribution of impact may present a problem for subsequent periods. The results clearly support the argument for the use of longitudinal data and analysis, and a greater appreciation by evaluators of the factor time. This analysis recommends a time frame of four to five years post intervention for soft business support evaluation.

The long-term impact of business support? - Exploring the role of evaluation timing using micro data

The original contribution of this work is threefold. Firstly, this thesis develops a critical perspective on current evaluation practice of business support, with focus on the timing of evaluation. The general time frame applied for business support policy evaluation is limited to one to two, seldom three years post intervention. This is despite calls for long-term impact studies by various authors, concerned about time lags before effects are fully realised. This desire for long-term evaluation opposes the requirements by policy-makers and funders, seeking quick results. Also, current ‘best practice’ frameworks do not refer to timing or its implications, and data availability affects the ability to undertake long-term evaluation. Secondly, this thesis provides methodological value for follow-up and similar studies by using data linking of scheme-beneficiary data with official performance datasets. Thus data availability problems are avoided through the use of secondary data. Thirdly, this thesis builds the evidence, through the application of a longitudinal impact study of small business support in England, covering seven years of post intervention data. This illustrates the variability of results for different evaluation periods, and the value in using multiple years of data for a robust understanding of support impact. For survival, impact of assistance is found to be immediate, but limited. Concerning growth, significant impact centres on a two to three year period post intervention for the linear selection and quantile regression models – positive for employment and turnover, negative for productivity. Attribution of impact may present a problem for subsequent periods. The results clearly support the argument for the use of longitudinal data and analysis, and a greater appreciation by evaluators of the factor time. This analysis recommends a time frame of four to five years post intervention for soft business support evaluation.

Growth rates of Rhizocarpon geographicum lichens:A review with new data from Iceland

This paper reviews evidence from previous growth-rate studies on lichens of the yellow-green species of Subgenus Rhizocarpon - the family most commonly used in lichenometric dating. New data are presented from Rhizocarpon section Rhizocarpon thalli growing on a moraine in southern Iceland over a period of 4.33yr. Measurements of 38 lichen thalli, between 2001 and 2005, show that diametral growth rate (DGR, mmyr-1) is a function of thallus size. Growth rates increase rapidly in small thalli (<10 mm diameter), remain high (ca. 0.8 mm yr-1) and then decrease gradually in larger thalli (>50 mm diameter). Mean DGR in southern Iceland, between 2001 and 2005, was 0.64 mm yr-1 (SD = 0.24). The resultant growth-rate curve is parabolic and is best described by a third-order polynomial function. The striking similarity between these findings in Iceland and those of Armstrong (1983) in Wales implies that the shape of the growth-rate curve may be characteristic of Rhizocarpon geographicum lichens. The difference between the absolute growth rate in southern Iceland and Wales (ca. 66% faster) is probably a function of climate and micro-environment between the two sites. These findings have implications for previous lichenometric-dating studies, namely, that those studies which assume constant lichen growth rates over many decades are probably unreliable. © British Geological Survey/ Natural Environment Research Council copyright 2006.

An investigation of thin amorphous carbon-based sputtered coatings for MEMS and micro-engineering applications

The work presented in this thesis describes an investigation into the production and properties of thin amorphous C films, with and without Cr doping, as a low wear / friction coating applicable to MEMS and other micro- and nano-engineering applications. Firstly, an assessment was made of the available testing techniques. Secondly, the optimised test methods were applied to a series of sputtered films of thickness 10 - 2000 nm in order to: (i) investigate the effect of thickness on the properties of coatingslcoating process (ii) investigate fundamental tribology at the nano-scale and (iii) provide a starting point for nanotribological coating optimisation at ultra low thickness. The use of XPS was investigated for the determination of Sp3/Sp2 carbon bonding. Under C 1s peak analysis, significant errors were identified and this was attributed to the absence of sufficient instrument resolution to guide the component peak structure (even with a high resolution instrument). A simple peak width analysis and correlation work with C KLL D value confirmed the errors. The use of XPS for Sp3/Sp2 was therefore limited to initial tentative estimations. Nanoindentation was shown to provide consistent hardness and reduced modulus results with depth (to < 7nm) when replicate data was suitably statistically processed. No significant pile-up or cracking of the films was identified under nanoindentation. Nanowear experimentation by multiple nanoscratching provided some useful information, however the conditions of test were very different to those expect for MEMS and micro- / nano-engineering systems. A novel 'sample oscillated nanoindentation' system was developed for testing nanowear under more relevant conditions. The films were produced in an industrial production coating line. In order to maximise the available information and to take account of uncontrolled process variation a statistical design of experiment procedure was used to investigate the effect of four key process control parameters. Cr doping was the most significant control parameter at all thicknesses tested and produced a softening effect and thus increased nanowear. Substrate bias voltage was also a significant parameter and produced hardening and a wear reducing effect at all thicknesses tested. The use of a Cr adhesion layer produced beneficial results at 150 nm thickness, but was ineffective at 50 nm. Argon flow to the coating chamber produced a complex effect. All effects reduced significantly with reducing film thickness. Classic fretting wear was produced at low amplitude under nanowear testing. Reciprocating sliding was produced at higher amplitude which generated three body abrasive wear and this was generally consistent with the Archard model. Specific wear rates were very low (typically 10-16 - 10-18 m3N-1m-1). Wear rates reduced exponentially with reduced film thickness and below (approx.) 20 nm, thickness was identified as the most important control of wear.

Outlier detection in scatterometer data:Neural network approaches

Satellite-borne scatterometers are used to measure backscattered micro-wave radiation from the ocean surface. This data may be used to infer surface wind vectors where no direct measurements exist. Inherent in this data are outliers owing to aberrations on the water surface and measurement errors within the equipment. We present two techniques for identifying outliers using neural networks; the outliers may then be removed to improve models derived from the data. Firstly the generative topographic mapping (GTM) is used to create a probability density model; data with low probability under the model may be classed as outliers. In the second part of the paper, a sensor model with input-dependent noise is used and outliers are identified based on their probability under this model. GTM was successfully modified to incorporate prior knowledge of the shape of the observation manifold; however, GTM could not learn the double skinned nature of the observation manifold. To learn this double skinned manifold necessitated the use of a sensor model which imposes strong constraints on the mapping. The results using GTM with a fixed noise level suggested the noise level may vary as a function of wind speed. This was confirmed by experiments using a sensor model with input-dependent noise, where the variation in noise is most sensitive to the wind speed input. Both models successfully identified gross outliers with the largest differences between models occurring at low wind speeds. © 2003 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

An appraisal of employment problems and policies at the micro-economic level

This study has concentrated on the development of an impact simulation model for use at the sub-national level. The necessity for the development of this model was demonstrated by the growth of local economic initiatives during the 1970's, and the lack of monitoring and evaluation exercise to assess their success and cost-effectiveness. The first stage of research involved the confirmation that the potential for micro-economic and spatial initiatives existed. This was done by identifying the existence of involuntary structural unemployment. The second stage examined the range of employment policy options from the macroeconomic, micro-economic and spatial perspectives, and focused on the need for evaluation of those policies. The need for spatial impact evaluation exercise in respect of other exogenous shocks, and structural changes was also recognised. The final stage involved the investigation of current techniques of evaluation and their adaptation for the purpose in hand. This led to a recognition of a gap in the armoury of techniques. The employment-dependency model has been developed to fill that gap, providing a low-budget model, capable of implementation at the small area level and generating a vast array of industrially disaggregate data, in terms of employment, employment-income, profits, value-added and gross income, related to levels of United Kingdom final demand. Thus providing scope for a variety of impact simulation exercises.

A study of the micro-mechanics of granular media

The development of more realistic constitutive models for granular media, such as sand, requires ingredients which take into account the internal micro-mechanical response to deformation. Unfortunately, at present, very little is known about these mechanisms and therefore it is instructive to find out more about the internal nature of granular samples by conducting suitable tests. In contrast to physical testing the method of investigation used in this study employs the Distinct Element Method. This is a computer based, iterative, time-dependent technique that allows the deformation of granular assemblies to be numerically simulated. By making assumptions regarding contact stiffnesses each individual contact force can be measured and by resolution particle centroid forces can be calculated. Then by dividing particle forces by their respective mass, particle centroid velocities and displacements are obtained by numerical integration. The Distinct Element Method is incorporated into a computer program 'Ball'. This program is effectively a numerical apparatus which forms a logical housing for this method and allows data input and output, and also provides testing control. By using this numerical apparatus tests have been carried out on disc assemblies and many new interesting observations regarding the micromechanical behaviour are revealed. In order to relate the observed microscopic mechanisms of deformation to the flow of the granular system two separate approaches have been used. Firstly a constitutive model has been developed which describes the yield function, flow rule and translation rule for regular assemblies of spheres and discs when subjected to coaxial deformation. Secondly statistical analyses have been carried out using data which was extracted from the simulation tests. These analyses define and quantify granular structure and then show how the force and velocity distributions use the structure to produce the corresponding stress and strain-rate tensors.

River basin surveillance using remotely sensed data: a water resources information management system

This thesis describes the development of an operational river basin water resources information management system. The river or drainage basin is the fundamental unit of the system; in both the modelling and prediction of hydrological processes, and in the monitoring of the effect of catchment management policies. A primary concern of the study is the collection of sufficient and sufficiently accurate information to model hydrological processes. Remote sensing, in combination with conventional point source measurement, can be a valuable source of information, but is often overlooked by hydrologists, due to the cost of acquisition and processing. This thesis describes a number of cost effective methods of acquiring remotely sensed imagery, from airborne video survey to real time ingestion of meteorological satellite data. Inexpensive micro-computer systems and peripherals are used throughout to process and manipulate the data. Spatial information systems provide a means of integrating these data with topographic and thematic cartographic data, and historical records. For the system to have any real potential the data must be stored in a readily accessible format and be easily manipulated within the database. The design of efficient man-machine interfaces and the use of software enginering methodologies are therefore included in this thesis as a major part of the design of the system. The use of low cost technologies, from micro-computers to video cameras, enables the introduction of water resources information management systems into developing countries where the potential benefits are greatest.

Development and deployment of an autonomous micro-drilling system for cochleostomy

This thesis describes the design and development of an autonomous micro-drilling system capable of accurately controlling the penetration of complaint tissues and its application to the drilling of the cochleostomy; a key stage in the cochlea implant procedure. The drilling of the cochleostomy is a precision micro-surgical task in which the control of the burr penetration through the outer bone tissue of the cochlea is vital to prevent damage to the structures within and requires a high degree of skill to perform successfully. The micro-drilling system demonstrates that the penetration of the cochlea can be achieved consistently and accurately. Breakthrough can be detected and controlled to within 20µm of the distal surface and the hole completed without perforation of the underlying endosteal membrane, leaving the membranous cochlea intact. This device is the first autonomous surgical tool successfully deployed in the operating theatre. The system is unique due to the way in which it uses real-time data from the cutting tool to derive the state of the tool-tissue interaction. Being a smart tool it uses this state information to actively control the way in which the drilling process progresses. This sensor guided strategy enables the tool to self-reference to the deforming tissue and navigate without the need for pre-operative scan data. It is this capability that enables the system to operate in circumstances where the tissue properties and boundary conditions are unknown, without the need to restrain the patient.

Rationality as a barrier to peace:micro-evidence from Kosovo

Despite a significant expansion of the literature on conflicts and fragility of states, only a few systematic attempts have been made to link the theoretical literature on social conflicts to the available micro-level information about the people who are involved in these conflicts. We address this lacuna in the literature using a household-level data set from Kosovo. Our analysis suggests that it is individually rational for competing ethnic communities, Kosovar Albanians and Kosovar Serbs, to resist a quick agreement on a social contract to share the region's resources.

Metformin:effects on micro and macrovascular complications in type 2 diabetes

Introduction: The antihyperglycaemic agent metformin is widely used in the treatment of type 2 diabetes. Data from the UK Prospective Diabetes Study and retrospective analyses of large healthcare databases concur that metformin reduces the incidence of myocardial infarction and increases survival in these patients. This apparently vasoprotective effect appears to be independent of the blood glucose-lowering efficacy. Effects of metformin: Metformin has long been known to reduce the development of atherosclerotic lesions in animal models, and clinical studies have shown the drug to reduce surrogate measures such as carotid intima-media thickness. The anti-atherogenic effects of metformin include reductions in insulin resistance, hyperinsulinaemia and obesity. There may be modest favourable effects against dyslipidaemia, reductions in pro-inflammatory cytokines and monocyte adhesion molecules, and improved glycation status, benefiting endothelial function in the macro- and micro-vasculature. Additionally metformin exerts anti-thrombotic effects, contributing to overall reductions in athero-thrombotic risk in type 2 diabetic patients. © 2008 Springer Science+Business Media, LLC.

Novel communication method between power converters for DC micro-grid applications

Communication between power converters is vital for high performance DC micro-grids controls. However, for residential DC micro-grid applications, using external communication link would increase the system cost, and reduce the system flexibility and reliability. This paper presents a novel method to enable the conventional DC/DC converters to transmit data via the common DC Bus. With this technology, cost-effective low bandwidth communication links between power converters can be established within a DC micro-grid, and advanced distributed control algorithms can be developed. A reliable communication with 2 kbps transmission rate has been implemented between the Boost converters through the common input DC bus.

Theoretical modeling and experimental validation of fluid-loaded micro rectangular plates

This paper presents a theoretical model on the vibration analysis of micro scale fluid-loaded rectangular isotropic plates, based on the Lamb's assumption of fluid-structure interaction and the Rayleigh-Ritz energy method. An analytical solution for this model is proposed, which can be applied to most cases of boundary conditions. The dynamical experimental data of a series of microfabricated silicon plates are obtained using a base-excitation dynamic testing facility. The natural frequencies and mode shapes in the experimental results are in good agreement with the theoretical simulations for the lower order modes. The presented theoretical and experimental investigations on the vibration characteristics of the micro scale plates are of particular interest in the design of microplate based biosensing devices. Copyright © 2009 by ASME.