Modelling conditional probability distributions for periodic variables

Most of the common techniques for estimating conditional probability densities are inappropriate for applications involving periodic variables. In this paper we introduce two novel techniques for tackling such problems, and investigate their performance using synthetic data. We then apply these techniques to the problem of extracting the distribution of wind vector directions from radar scatterometer data gathered by a remote-sensing satellite.

Modelling conditional probability distributions for periodic variables

Most of the common techniques for estimating conditional probability densities are inappropriate for applications involving periodic variables. In this paper we apply two novel techniques to the problem of extracting the distribution of wind vector directions from radar catterometer data gathered by a remote-sensing satellite.

Modelling conditional probability distributions for periodic variables

Most conventional techniques for estimating conditional probability densities are inappropriate for applications involving periodic variables. In this paper we introduce three related techniques for tackling such problems, and investigate their performance using synthetic data. We then apply these techniques to the problem of extracting the distribution of wind vector directions from radar scatterometer data gathered by a remote-sensing satellite.

Estimating conditional probability densities for periodic variables

Most of the common techniques for estimating conditional probability densities are inappropriate for applications involving periodic variables. In this paper we introduce three novel techniques for tackling such problems, and investigate their performance using synthetic data. We then apply these techniques to the problem of extracting the distribution of wind vector directions from radar scatterometer data gathered by a remote-sensing satellite.

Probability distribution modelling to improve stability in nonlinear MIMO control

We consider the direct adaptive inverse control of nonlinear multivariable systems with different delays between every input-output pair. In direct adaptive inverse control, the inverse mapping is learned from examples of input-output pairs. This makes the obtained controller sub optimal, since the network may have to learn the response of the plant over a larger operational range than necessary. Moreover, in certain applications, the control problem can be redundant, implying that the inverse problem is ill posed. In this paper we propose a new algorithm which allows estimating and exploiting uncertainty in nonlinear multivariable control systems. This approach allows us to model strongly non-Gaussian distribution of control signals as well as processes with hysteresis. The proposed algorithm circumvents the dynamic programming problem by using the predicted neural network uncertainty to localise the possible control solutions to consider.

Development of a questionnaire to assess the relative subjective benefits of presbyopia correction

Purpose To develop a standardized questionnaire of near visual function and satisfaction to complement visual function evaluations of presbyopic corrections. Setting Eye Clinic, School of Life and Health Sciences, Aston University, Midland Eye Institute and Solihull Hospital, Birmingham, United Kingdom. Design Questionnaire development. Methods A preliminary 26-item questionnaire of previously used near visual function items was completed by patients with monofocal intraocular lenses (IOLs), multifocal IOLs, accommodating IOLs, multifocal contact lenses, or varifocal spectacles. Rasch analysis was used for item reduction, after which internal and test–retest reliabilities were determined. Construct validity was determined by correlating the resulting Near Activity Visual Questionnaire (NAVQ) scores with near visual acuity and critical print size (CPS), which was measured using the Minnesota Low Vision Reading Test chart. Discrimination ability was assessed through receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis. Results One hundred fifty patients completed the questionnaire. Item reduction resulted in a 10-item NAVQ with excellent separation (2.92), internal consistency (Cronbach a = 0.95), and test–retest reliability (intraclass correlation coefficient = 0.72). Correlations of questionnaire scores with near visual acuity (r = 0.32) and CPS (r = 0.27) provided evidence of validity, and discrimination ability was excellent (area under ROC curve = 0.91). Conclusion Results show the NAVQ is a reliable, valid instrument that can be incorporated into the evaluation of presbyopic corrections.

Project risk management:a combined analytic hierarchy process and decision tree approach

Time, cost and quality achievements on large-scale construction projects are uncertain because of technological constraints, involvement of many stakeholders, long durations, large capital requirements and improper scope definitions. Projects that are exposed to such an uncertain environment can effectively be managed with the application of risk management throughout the project life cycle. Risk is by nature subjective. However, managing risk subjectively poses the danger of non-achievement of project goals. Moreover, risk analysis of the overall project also poses the danger of developing inappropriate responses. This article demonstrates a quantitative approach to construction risk management through an analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and decision tree analysis. The entire project is classified to form a few work packages. With the involvement of project stakeholders, risky work packages are identified. As all the risk factors are identified, their effects are quantified by determining probability (using AHP) and severity (guess estimate). Various alternative responses are generated, listing the cost implications of mitigating the quantified risks. The expected monetary values are derived for each alternative in a decision tree framework and subsequent probability analysis helps to make the right decision in managing risks. In this article, the entire methodology is explained by using a case application of a cross-country petroleum pipeline project in India. The case study demonstrates the project management effectiveness of using AHP and DTA.

On the validity of subjective measures of company performance

Subjective measures of company performance are widely used in research and typically are interpreted as equivalent to objective measures. Yet, the assumption of equivalence is open to challenge. We compared the use of both types of measure in 3 separate samples. Findings were consistent in showing that: (a) subjective and objective measures of company performance were positively associated (convergent validity); (b) those relationships were stronger than those between measures of differing aspects of performance using the same method (discriminant validity); and (c) the relationships of subjective and objective company performance measures with a range of independent variables were equivalent (construct validity).

Visual function and subjective quality of life compared in subjects with acquired macular disease

PURPOSE: To determine the objective measures of visual function that are most relevant to subjective quality of vision and perceived reading ability in patients with acquired macular disease. METHODS: Twenty-eight patients with macular disease underwent a comprehensive assessment of visual function. The patients also completed a vision-related quality-of-life questionnaire that included a section of general questions about perceived visual performance and a section with specific questions on reading. RESULTS: Results of all tests of vision correlated highly with reported vision-related quality-of-life impairment. Low-contrast tests explained most of the variance in self-reported problems with reading. Text-reading speed correlated highly with overall concern about vision. CONCLUSIONS: Reading performance is strongly associated with vision-related quality of life. High-contrast distance acuity is not the only relevant measure of visual function in relation to the perceived visual performance of a patient with macular disease. The results suggest the importance of print contrast, even over print size, in reading performance in patients with acquired macular disease.

The Effect of nutritional supplementation on subjective and objective measures of visual and retinal function:a random controlled trial

In industrialised countries age-related macular disease (ARMD) is the leading cause of visual loss in older people. Because oxidative stress is purported to be associated with an increased risk of disease development the role of antioxidant supplementation is of interest. Lutein is a carotenoid antioxidant that accumulates within the retina and is thought to filter blue light. Increased levels of lutein have been associated with reduced risk of developing ARMD and improvements in visual and retinal function in eyes with ARMD. The aim of this randomised controlled trial (RCT) was to investigate the effect of a lutein-based nutritional supplement on subjective and objective measures of visual function in healthy eyes and in eyes with age-related maculopathy (ARM) – an early form of ARMD. Supplement withdrawal effects were also investigated. A sample size of 66 healthy older (HO), healthy younger (HY), and ARM eyes were randomly allocated to receive a lutein-based supplement or no treatment for 40 weeks. The supplemented group then stopped supplementation to look at the effects of withdrawal over a further 20 weeks. The primary outcome measure was multifocal electroretinogram (mfERG) N1P1 amplitude. Secondary outcome measures were mfERG N1, P1 and N2 latency, contrast sensitivity (CS), Visual acuity (VA) and macular pigment optical density (MPOD). Sample sizes were sufficient for the RCT to have an 80% power to detect a significant clinical effect at the 5% significance level for all outcome measures when the healthy eye groups were combined, and CS, VA and mfERG in the ARM group. This RCT demonstrates significant improvements in MPOD in HY and HO supplemented eyes. When HY and HO supplemented groups were combined, MPOD improvements were maintained, and mfERG ring 2 P1 latency became shorter. On withdrawal of the supplement mfERG ring 1 N1P1 amplitude reduced in HO eyes. When HO and HY groups were combined, mfERG ring 1 and ring 2 N1P1 amplitudes were reduced. In ARM eyes, ring 3 N2 latency and ring 4 P1 latency became longer. These statistically significant changes may not be clinically significant. The finding that a lutein-based supplement increases MPOD in healthy eyes, but does not increase mfERG amplitudes contrasts with the CARMIS study and contributes to the debate on the use of nutritional supplementation in ARM.

Optimizing measurement of subjective amplitude of accommodation with defocus curves

PURPOSE: To determine whether letter sequences and/or lens-presentation order should be randomized when measuring defocus curves and to assess the most appropriate criterion for calculating the subjective amplitude of accommodation (AoA) from defocus curves. SETTING: Eye Clinic, School of Life & Health Sciences, Aston University, Birmingham, United Kingdom. METHODS: Defocus curves (from +3.00 diopters [D] to -3.00 D in 0.50 D steps) for 6 possible combinations of randomized or nonrandomized letter sequences and/or lens-presentation order were measured in a random order in 20 presbyopic subjects. Subjective AoA was calculated from the defocus curves by curve fitting using various published criteria, and each was correlated to subjective push-up AoA. Objective AoA was measured for comparison of blur tolerance and pupil size. RESULTS: Randomization of lens-presentation order and/or letter sequences, or lack of, did not affect the measured defocus curves (P>.05, analysis of variance). The range of defocus that maintains highest achievable visual acuity (allowing for variability of repeated measurement) was better correlated to (r = 0.84) and agreed best with ( 0.50 D) subjective push-up AoA than any other relative or absolute acuity criterion used in previous studies. CONCLUSIONS: Nonrandomized letters and lens presentation on their own did not affect subjective AoA measured by defocus curves, although their combination should be avoided. Quantification of subjective AoA from defocus curves should be standardized to the range of defocus that maintains the best achievable visual acuity.

The effects of a lutein-based supplement on objective and subjective measures of retinal and visual function in eyes with age-related maculopathy - a randomised controlled trial

Lutein and zeaxanthin are lipid-soluble antioxidants found within the macula region of the retina. Links have been suggested between increased levels of these carotenoids and reduced risk for age-related macular disease (ARMD). Therefore, the effect of lutein-based supplementation on retinal and visual function in people with early stages of ARMD (age-related maculopathy, ARM) was assessed using multi-focal electroretinography (mfERG), contrast sensitivity and distance visual acuity. A total of fourteen participants were randomly allocated to either receive a lutein-based oral supplement (treated group) or no supplement (non-treated group). There were eight participants aged between 56 and 81 years (65·50 (sd 9·27) years) in the treated group and six participants aged between 61 and 83 years (69·67 (sd 7·52) years) in the non-treated group. Sample sizes provided 80 % power at the 5 % significance level. Participants attended for three visits (0, 20 and 40 weeks). At 60 weeks, the treated group attended a fourth visit following 20 weeks of supplement withdrawal. No changes were seen between the treated and non-treated groups during supplementation. Although not clinically significant, mfERG ring 3 N2 latency (P= 0·041) and ring 4 P1 latency (P= 0·016) increased, and a trend for reduction of mfERG amplitudes was observed in rings 1, 3 and 4 on supplement withdrawal. The statistically significant increase in mfERG latencies and the trend for reduced mfERG amplitudes on withdrawal are encouraging and may suggest a potentially beneficial effect of lutein-based supplementation in ARM-affected eyes. Copyright © 2012 The Authors.

Asymptotically exact probability distribution for the Sinai model with finite drift

We obtain the exact asymptotic result for the disorder-averaged probability distribution function for a random walk in a biased Sinai model and show that it is characterized by a creeping behavior of the displacement moments with time, similar to v(mu n), where mu <1 is dimensionless mean drift. We employ a method originated in quantum diffusion which is based on the exact mapping of the problem to an imaginary-time Schrodinger equation. For nonzero drift such an equation has an isolated lowest eigenvalue separated by a gap from quasicontinuous excited states, and the eigenstate corresponding to the former governs the long-time asymptotic behavior.

Visual outcomes and subjective experience after bilateral implantation of a new diffractive trifocal intraocular lens

Purpose - To assess clinical outcomes and subjective experience after bilateral implantation of a diffractive trifocal intraocular lens (IOL). Setting - Midland Eye Institute, Solihull, United Kingdom. Design - Cohort study. Methods - Patients had bilateral implantation of Finevision trifocal IOLs. Uncorrected distance visual acuity, corrected distance visual acuity (CDVA), and manifest refraction were measured 2 months postoperatively. Defocus curves were assessed under photopic and mesopic conditions over a range of +1.50 to -4.00 diopters (D) in 0.50 D steps. Contrast sensitivity function was assessed under photopic conditions. Halometry was used to measure the angular size of monocular and binocular photopic scotomas arising from a glare source. Patient satisfaction with uncorrected near vision was assessed using the Near Activity Visual Questionnaire (NAVQ). Results - The mean monocular CDVA was 0.08 logMAR ± 0.08 (SD) and the mean binocular CDVA, 0.06 ± 0.08 logMAR. Defocus curve testing showed an extended range of clear vision from +1.00 to -2.50 D defocus, with a significant difference in acuity between photopic conditions and mesopic conditions at -1.50 D defocus only. Photopic contrast sensitivity was significantly better binocularly than monocularly at all spatial frequencies. Halometry showed a glare scotoma of a mean size similar to that in previous studies of multifocal and accommodating IOLs; there were no subjective complaints of dysphotopsia. The mean NAVQ Rasch score for satisfaction with near vision was 15.9 ± 10.7 logits. Conclusions - The trifocal IOL implanted binocularly produced good distance visual acuity and near and intermediate visual function. Patients were very satisfied with their uncorrected near vision.

Subjective indicators of health held by the lay population:eudaimanistic model

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