Quid pro quo:reflections on the value of problem structuring workshops

Attracting clients who are willing to invest in using a problem structuring method (PSM) can be particularly difficult for the emerging generation of modellers. There are many reasons for this, not least that the benefits of a problem structuring intervention are vague and evidence of benefits are often anecdotal for example, claims of constructing a deeper understanding of the problem or building the commitment of a group to implementing an outcome. This paper contributes to the evaluation of problem structuring methods by reflecting on the quid pro quo that a client and problem structuring modeller can enjoy from collaboration. The paper reflects on 21 cases, where Journey Making (a problem structuring method) was used with 16 organizations to help managers agree a suite of actions to tackle a complex strategic issue. The reflections are clustered around those benefits that pertain to: PSMs in general; PSMs that use computer-supported workshops; the Journey Making methodology.

Problem structuring methods for large group interventions

Problem structuring methods (PSMs) aim to build shared understanding in a group of decision makers. This shared understanding is used as a basis for them to negotiate an agreed action plan that they are prepared to help implement. Engaging in a social process of negotiation with a large number of people is difficult, and so PSMs have typically focused on small groups of less than 20. This paper explores the legitimacy of deploying PSMs in large groups of people (50–1000), where the aim is to negotiate action and build commitment to its implementation. We review the difficulties of facilitating large groups with PSMs, drawing heavily on our experience of working with over 25 large groups. We offer a range of lessons learned and suggest concrete approaches to facilitating large groups to achieve the objectives of PSMs. This paper contributes to the evaluation and development of PSMs.

Problem structuring methods:new directions in a problematic world

Editorial (guest editor)

Taking problem structuring methods forward

Editorial

Approaches to sharing knowledge in group problem structuring

Problem-structuring techniques are an integral aspect of 'Soft-OR'. SSM, SAST, Strategic Choice, and JOURNEY Making, all depend for their success on a group developing a shared view of a problem through some form of explicit modelling. The negotiated problem structure becomes the basis for problem resolution. Implicit to this process is an assumption that members of the group share and build their knowledge about the problem domain. This paper explores the extent to which this assumption is reasonable. The research is based on detailed records from the use of JOURNEY Making, where it has used special purpose Group Support software to aid the group problem structuring. This software continuously tracks the contributions of each member of the group and thus the extent to which they appear to be 'connecting' and augmenting their own knowledge with that of other members of the group. Software records of problem resolution in real organisational settings are used to explore the sharing of knowledge among senior managers. These explorations suggest a typology of knowledge sharing. The implications of this typology for problem structuring and an agenda for future research are considered.

Short-term electricity demand and gas price forecasts using wavelet transforms and adaptive models

This paper presents some forecasting techniques for energy demand and price prediction, one day ahead. These techniques combine wavelet transform (WT) with fixed and adaptive machine learning/time series models (multi-layer perceptron (MLP), radial basis functions, linear regression, or GARCH). To create an adaptive model, we use an extended Kalman filter or particle filter to update the parameters continuously on the test set. The adaptive GARCH model is a new contribution, broadening the applicability of GARCH methods. We empirically compared two approaches of combining the WT with prediction models: multicomponent forecasts and direct forecasts. These techniques are applied to large sets of real data (both stationary and non-stationary) from the UK energy markets, so as to provide comparative results that are statistically stronger than those previously reported. The results showed that the forecasting accuracy is significantly improved by using the WT and adaptive models. The best models on the electricity demand/gas price forecast are the adaptive MLP/GARCH with the multicomponent forecast; their MSEs are 0.02314 and 0.15384 respectively.

Organizational and textual structuring of radio news discourse in English and Arabic.

The present work studies the overall structuring of radio news discourse via investigating three metatextual/interactive functions: (1) Discourse Organizing Elements (DOEs), (2) Attribution and (3) Sentential and Nominal Background Information (SBI & NBI). An extended corpus of about 73,000 words from BBC and Radio Damascus news is used to study DOEs and a restricted corpus of 38,000 words for Attribution and S & NBI. A situational approach is adopted to assess the influence of factors such as medium and audience on these functions and their frequence. It is found that: (1) DOEs are organizational and their frequency is determined by length of text; (2) Attribution Function in accordance with the editor's strategy and its frequency is audience sensitive; and (3) BI provides background information and is determined by audience and news topics. Secondly, the salient grammatical elements in DOEs are discourse deictic demonstratives, address pronouns and nouns referring to `the news'. Attribution is realized in reporting/reported clauses, and BI in a sentence, a clause or a nominal group. Thirdly, DOEs establish a hierarchy of (1) news, (2) summary/expansion and (3) item: including topic introduction and details. While Attribution is generally, and SBI solely, a function of detailing, NBI and proper names are generally a function of summary and topic introduction. Being primarily addressed to audience and referring metatextually, the functions investigated support Sinclair's interactive and autonomous planes of discourse. They also shed light on the part(s) of the linguistic system which realize the metatextual/interactive function. Strictly, `discourse structure' inevitably involves a rank-scale; but news discourse also shows a convention of item `listing'. Hence only within the boundary of variety (ultimately interpreted across language and in its situation) can textual functions and discourse structure be studied. Finally, interlingual variety study provides invaluable insights into a level of translation that goes beyond matching grammatical systems or situational factors, an interpretive level which has to be described in linguistic analysis of translation data.

The detection of p-waves in ambulatory ECG recordings by the use of wavelet transforms

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WASAN : the development of a facilitated methodology for structuring a waste minimisation problem

This paper contributes a new methodology called Waste And Source-matter ANalyses (WASAN) which supports a group in building agreeable actions for safely minimising avoidable waste. WASAN integrates influences from the Operational Research (OR) methodologies/philosophies of Problem Structuring Methods, Systems Thinking, simulation modelling and sensitivity analysis as well as industry approaches of Waste Management Hierarchy, Hazard Operability (HAZOP) Studies and As Low As Reasonably Practicable (ALARP). The paper shows how these influences are compiled into facilitative structures that support managers in developing recommendations on how to reduce avoidable waste production. WASAN is being designed as Health and Safety Executive Guidance on what constitutes good decision making practice for the companies that manage nuclear sites. In this paper we report and reflect on its use in two soft OR/problem structuring workshops conducted on radioactive waste in the nuclear industry. Crown Copyright © 2010.