Structural change in apartheid era South Africa:1975-93

This paper examines the sources of structural changes in output growth of South Africa's economy over 1975-93 using a decomposition method within the inputoutput (IO) framework for analysing output changes from a demand side perspective. It decomposes output growth into private consumption, government consumption, investment and export components and also measures the impact of import substitution and changes in intermediate input use (as indicated by changes in IO coefficients). It is found that, before 1981, overall output growth was multi-components driven with all the above components contributing positively to economic growth. However, the collapse of investment demand is by far the single largest factor contributing to the economic stagnation that categorizes the post-1981 period.

Deindustrialisation and structural change during the post-Communist transition

The aim of this paper is to model the evolution of employment structure in post-communist economies in the broader context of deindustrialisation. The paper builds on the model of structural change developed by Rowthorn and Wells (1987). We show that the starting point of high industry sector share in total employment and its direct fall when productivity of sectors changes in favour of services can be explained in terms of this framework. Moreover, the model can also describe the phenomenon of a further expansion of the agriculture, observed in countries classified as "less consistent" in the reforms implementation. Hence, we distinguish two development paths, the efficient one, called "horizontal", and the inefficient one called "vertical". We illustrate it with empirical data, using alternative measures of structural change and patterns of structural evolutions during transition. Finally, we discuss the link between the EBRD indicators of reforms and structural change. We show that the "quality" of reforms, not the initial GDP level determines a country's development path.

The environmental impacts of technical change

The thesis is concerned with relationships between profit, technology and environmental change. Existing work has concentrated on only a few questions, treated at either micro or macro levels of analysis. And there has been something of an impasse since the neoclassical and neomarxist approaches are either in direct conflict (macro level), or hardly interact (micro level). The aim of the thesis was to bypass this impasse by starting to develop a meso level of analysis that focusses on issues largely ignored in the traditional approaches - on questions about distribution. The first questions looked at were descriptive - what were the patterns of distribution over time of the variability in types and rates of environmental change, and in particular, was there any evidence of periodization? Two case studies were used to examine these issues. The first looked at environmental change in the iron and steel industry since 1700, and the second studied pollution in five industries in the basic processing sector. It was established that environmental change has been markedly periodized, with an apparently fairly regular `cycle length' of about fifty years. The second questions considered were explanatory - whether and how this periodization could be accounted for by reference to variations in aspects of profitability and technical change. In the iron and steel industry, it was found that diffusion rates and the rate of nature of innovation were periodized on the same pattern as was environmental change. And the same sort of variation was also present in the realm of profits, as evidenced by cyclical changes in output growth. Simple theoretical accounts could be given for all the empirically demonstrable links, and it was suggested that the most useful models at this meso level of analysis are provided by structural change models of economic development.

Purchasing power parity and structural instability in the US/UK exchange rate

The aim of this study is to determine if nonlinearities have affected purchasing power parity (PPP) since 1885. Also using recent advances in the econometrics of structural change we segment the sample space according to the identified breaks and look at whether the PPP condition holds in each sub-sample and whether this involves linear or non-linear adjustment. Our results suggest that during some sub-periods, PPP holds, although whether it holds or not and whether the adjustment is linear or non-linear, depends primarily on the type of exchange rate regime in operation at any point in time.

Does competitive entry structurally change key marketing metrics?

To what extent does competitive entry create a structural change in key marketing metrics? New players may just be a temporal nuisance to incumbents, but could also fundamentally change the latter's performance evolution, or induce them to permanently alter their spending levels and/or pricing decisions. Similarly, the addition of a new marketing channel could permanently shift shopping preferences, or could just create a short-lived migration from existing channels. The steady-state impact of a given entry or channel addition on various marketing metrics is intrinsically an empirical issue for which we need an appropriate testing procedure. In this study, we introduce a testing sequence that allows for the endogenous determination of potential change (break) locations, thereby accounting for lead and/or lagged effects of the introduction of interest. By not restricting the number of potential breaks to one (as is commonly done in the marketing literature), we quantify the impact of the new entrant(s) while controlling for other events that may have taken place in the market. We illustrate the methodology in the context of the Dutch television advertising market, which was characterized by the entry of several late movers. We find that the steady-state growth of private incumbents' revenues was slowed by the quasi-simultaneous entry of three new players. Contrary to industry observers' expectations, such a slowdown was not experienced in the related markets of print and radio advertising.

Economic performance in European telecommunications, 1978-1998:a comparative study

The European telecommunications sector is undergoing major structural change in the face of new technology, privatisation and European Commission directives requiring market liberalisation. This study considers the comparative performance of the major European telecommunications operators between 1978 and 1998. This period encompasses an era of state monopolies, market liberalisation initiatives and a number of privatisations. The objectives are to assess: the extent so far to which market liberalisation and privatisation have impacted on the efficiency with which telecommunications services are provided in Europe; and changes in the performance of the different telecommunications operators over time with a view to providing an insight into the comparative efficiency performance of the different telecommunications operators in Europe. Performance is measured in terms of profit margins and labour and total factor productivity.

Employment outcomes and plant closure in a post-industrial city:an analysis of the labour market studies of MG Rover workers three years on

This paper examines how the loss of 6300 jobs from the closure of MG Rover (MGR) in the city of Birmingham (UK) in April 2005 affected the employment trajectories of ex-workers, in the context of wider structural change and efforts at urban renewal. The paper presents an analysis of a longitudinal survey of 300 ex-MGR workers, and examines to what extent the state of local labour markets and workers’ geographical mobility—as well as the effectiveness of the immediate policy response and longer-term local economic strategies—may have helped to balance the impacts of personal attributes associated with workers’ employability and their reabsorption into the labour markets. It is found that the relative buoyancy of the local economy, the success of longer-run efforts at diversification and a strong policy response and retraining initiative helped many disadvantaged workers to find new jobs in the medium term. However, the paper also highlights the unequal employment outcomes and trajectories that many lesser-skilled workers faced. It explores the policy issues arising from such closures and their aftermath, such as the need to co-ordinate responses, to retain institutional capacity, to offer high-quality training and education resources to workers and, where possible, to slow down such closure processes to enable skills to be retained and reused within the local economy.

Policy issues in rural areas:an examination with special reference to Cumbria

This thesis develops the requirements of the Cumbria Division of the MAFF to have detailed information on a number of rural topics of particular concern to the area's socia-economic advisory service. Information was generated upon the effects of road developments upon agriculture; the possibility of economic and employment growth through tourism, industry, forestry and agriculture; and upon their relationship with conservation and development control issues generally. A working conference was organised (The Whitbarrow Exercise) to review in specific terms a number of the above problems, in which representatives of the major groups active in rural policy formulation and implementation participated. The study was extended to consider these policy issues on a more prosperous agricultural estate; and in the county of Cumbria as a whole. An examination of the development and likely future impact of agricultural policy upon rural policy generally was also undertaken. All the research was set in the context of an extensive literature review. The results indicate that while state intervention to relieve those problems collectively known as rural deprivation still has an important place in modern rural policy, the scope for such intervention to be successful is limited. Opportunities for employment and wealth creation through tourism, forestry, industry and agriculture are limited for social and economic reasons; developments in these sectors can have adverse effects upon the environment; can compound existing problems; and are often resisted by local people. The lack of success of such ventures indicates continued structural change within rural communities, with some adverse effects for the less privileged members. Recognising this it is argued that fural policy seeks to adapt to, rather than attempt to fundamentally alter inevitable change, recognising that in the long term social and structural problems will resolve themselves. It is further argued that a reduction in state support for agriculture appears inevitable, and this can bring considerable conservation benefits, even in upland areas where positive links between agriculture and conservation have been found by some commentators. It is also argued that for social and economic reasons, and because of the declining importance of agricultural land, a vigorous landscape and ecological conservation policy is pursued by planning authorities and is reasonable. With regard to road developments on agricultural land, the research has shawn that although it is the norm far the agricultural community to experience severe difficulty during developments, these can be overcame by increasing the resources of professional expertise available to affected farmers. This indicates a possible important increased role for the MAFF in the development process.

Knowledge, capabilities and manufacturing innovation: a US-Europe comparison

In this paper we report a comparative analysis of the factors which contribute to the innovation performance of manufacturing firms in the US state of Georgia, and three European regions, the UK regions of Wales and the West Midlands, and the Spanish region of Catalonia. We consider the factors which shape firms’ ability to generate new products and processes and undertake various forms of organisational and structural change. We are particularly concerned with how firms collect the knowledge on which they base their innovation and their effectiveness in translating that knowledge into new innovations. Three main empirical conclusions result. First, US firms have more widespread links to external knowledge sources than those in Europe and notably the universities make a greater contribution to innovation in the US than in Europe. Second, UK firms prove more effective at capturing synergies between their innovation activities than US and Catalan firms. Third, firms’ operating environment proves more conducive to innovation in the US than in either the UK regions or Catalonia. Our results suggest the potential for mutual learning. For the UK there are lessons in terms of the way in which the universities in Georgia are supporting innovation. For firms in Georgia and in Catalonia the potential lessons are more strategic or organisational and relate to how they can better capture potential synergies between their innovation activities.

Comparing regional organizations in global multilateral institutions:ASEAN, the EU and the UN

Structural change brought about by the end of the Cold War and accelerated globalisation have transformed the global environment. A global governance complex is emerging, characterised by an ever-greater functional and regulatory role for multilateral organisations such as the United Nations (UN) and its associated agencies. The evolving global governance framework has created opportunities for regional organisations to participate as actors within the UN (and other multilateral institutions). This article compares the European Union (EU) and Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) as actors within the UN network. It begins by extrapolating framework conditions for the emergence of EU and ASEAN actorness from the literature. The core argument of this article is that EU and ASEAN actorness is evolving in two succinct stages: Changes in the global environment create opportunities for the participation of regional organisations in global governance institutions, exposing representation and cohesion problems at the regional level. In response, ASEAN and the EU have initiated processes of institutional adaptation.

Relationships between fundus image quantification and visual field status in age-related macular degeneration

Presentation Purpose:To relate structural change to functional change in age-related macular degeneration (AMD) in a cross-sectional population using fundus imaging and the visual field status. Methods:10 degree standard and SWAP visual fields and other standard functional clinical measures were acquired in 44 eyes of 27 patients at various stages of AMD, as well as fundus photographs. Retro-mode SLO images were captured in a subset of 29 eyes of 19 of the patients. Drusen area, measured by automated drusen segmentation software (Smith et al. 2005) was correlated with visual field data. Visual field defect position was compared to the position of the imaged drusen and deposits using custom software. Results:The effect of AMD stage on drusen area within the 6000µm was significant (One-way ANOVA: F = 17.231, p < 0.001), however the trend was not strong across all stages. There were significant linear relationships between visual field parameters and drusen area. The mean deviation (MD) declined by 3.00dB and 3.92dB for each log % drusen area for standard perimetry and SWAP, respectively. The visual field parameters of focal loss displayed the strongest correlations with drusen area. The number of pattern deviation (PD) defects increased by 9.30 and 9.68 defects per log % drusen area for standard perimetry and SWAP, respectively. Weaker correlations were found between drusen area and visual acuity, contrast sensitivity, colour vision and reading speed. 72.6% of standard PD defects and 65.2% of SWAP PD defects coincided with retinal signs of AMD on fundus photography. 67.5% of standard PD defects and 69.7% of SWAP PD defects coincided with deposits on retro-mode images. Conclusions:Perimetry exhibited a stronger relationship with drusen area than other measures of visual function. The structure-function relationship between visual field parameters and drusen area was linear. Overall the indices of focal loss had a stronger correlation with drusen area in SWAP than in standard perimetry. Visual field defects had a high coincidence proportion with retinal manifestations of AMD.Smith R.T. et al. (2005) Arch Ophthalmol 123:200-206.

One date, one break?

This paper demonstrates that the conventional approach of using official liberalisation dates as the only existing breakdates could lead to inaccurate conclusions as to the effect of the underlying liberalisation policies. It also proposes an alternative paradigm for obtaining more robust estimates of volatility changes around official liberalisation dates and/or other important market events. By focusing on five East Asian emerging markets, all of which liberalised their financial markets in the late, and by using recent advances in the econometrics of structural change, it shows that (i) the detected breakdates in the volatility of stock market returns can be dramatically different to official liberalisation dates and (ii) the use of official liberalisation dates as breakdates can readily entail inaccurate inference. In contrast, the use of data-driven techniques for the detection of multiple structural changes leads to a richer and inevitably more accurate pattern of volatility evolution emerges in comparison with focussing on official liberalisation dates.