The use of Meteosat satellite data for spatial rainfall estimations and hydrological simulations

Satellite information, in combination with conventional point source measurements, can be a valuable source of information. This thesis is devoted to the spatial estimation of areal rainfall over a region using both the measurements from a dense and sparse network of rain-gauges and images from the meteorological satellites. A primary concern is to study the effects of such satellite assisted rainfall estimates on the performance of rainfall-runoff models. Low-cost image processing systems and peripherals are used to process and manipulate the data. Both secondary as well as primary satellite images were used for analysis. The secondary data was obtained from the in-house satellite receiver and the primary data was obtained from an outside source. Ground truth data was obtained from the local Water Authority. A number of algorithms are presented that combine the satellite and conventional data sources to produce areal rainfall estimates and the results are compared with some of the more traditional methodologies. The results indicate that the satellite cloud information is valuable in the assessment of the spatial distribution of areal rainfall, for both half-hourly as well as daily estimates of rainfall. It is also demonstrated how the performance of the simple multiple regression rainfall-runoff model is improved when satellite cloud information is used as a separate input in addition to rainfall estimates from conventional means. The use of low-cost equipment, from image processing systems to satellite imagery, makes it possible for developing countries to introduce such systems in areas where the benefits are greatest.

Data assimilation for precipitation nowcasting using Bayesian inference

This work introduces a new variational Bayes data assimilation method for the stochastic estimation of precipitation dynamics using radar observations for short term probabilistic forecasting (nowcasting). A previously developed spatial rainfall model based on the decomposition of the observed precipitation field using a basis function expansion captures the precipitation intensity from radar images as a set of ‘rain cells’. The prior distributions for the basis function parameters are carefully chosen to have a conjugate structure for the precipitation field model to allow a novel variational Bayes method to be applied to estimate the posterior distributions in closed form, based on solving an optimisation problem, in a spirit similar to 3D VAR analysis, but seeking approximations to the posterior distribution rather than simply the most probable state. A hierarchical Kalman filter is used to estimate the advection field based on the assimilated precipitation fields at two times. The model is applied to tracking precipitation dynamics in a realistic setting, using UK Met Office radar data from both a summer convective event and a winter frontal event. The performance of the model is assessed both traditionally and using probabilistic measures of fit based on ROC curves. The model is shown to provide very good assimilation characteristics, and promising forecast skill. Improvements to the forecasting scheme are discussed