Adding constrained discontinuities to Gaussian process models of wind fields

Gaussian Processes provide good prior models for spatial data, but can be too smooth. In many physical situations there are discontinuities along bounding surfaces, for example fronts in near-surface wind fields. We describe a modelling method for such a constrained discontinuity and demonstrate how to infer the model parameters in wind fields with MCMC sampling.

Sparse representation for Gaussian process models

We develop an approach for a sparse representation for Gaussian Process (GP) models in order to overcome the limitations of GPs caused by large data sets. The method is based on a combination of a Bayesian online algorithm together with a sequential construction of a relevant subsample of the data which fully specifies the prediction of the model. Experimental results on toy examples and large real-world datasets indicate the efficiency of the approach.

Adding constrained discontinuities to Gaussian process models of wind fields

Gaussian Processes provide good prior models for spatial data, but can be too smooth. In many physical situations there are discontinuities along bounding surfaces, for example fronts in near-surface wind fields. We describe a modelling method for such a constrained discontinuity and demonstrate how to infer the model parameters in wind fields with MCMC sampling.

Binocular contrast interactions:Dichoptic masking is not a single process

To decouple interocular suppression and binocular summation we varied the relative phase of mask and target in a 2IFC contrast-masking paradigm. In Experiment I, dichoptic mask gratings had the same orientation and spatial frequency as the target. For in-phase masking, suppression was strong (a log-log slope of ∼1) and there was weak facilitation at low mask contrasts. Anti-phase masking was weaker (a log-log slope of ∼0.7) and there was no facilitation. A two-stage model of contrast gain control [Meese, T.S., Georgeson, M.A. and Baker, D.H. (2006). Binocular contrast vision at and above threshold. Journal of Vision, 6: 1224-1243] provided a good fit to the in-phase results and fixed its free parameters. It made successful predictions (with no free parameters) for the anti-phase results when (A) interocular suppression was phase-indifferent but (B) binocular summation was phase sensitive. Experiments II and III showed that interocular suppression comprised two components: (i) a tuned effect with an orientation bandwidth of ∼±33° and a spatial frequency bandwidth of >3 octaves, and (ii) an untuned effect that elevated threshold by a factor of between 2 and 4. Operationally, binocular summation was more tightly tuned, having an orientation bandwidth of ∼±8°, and a spatial frequency bandwidth of ∼0.5 octaves. Our results replicate the unusual shapes of the in-phase dichoptic tuning functions reported by Legge [Legge, G.E. (1979). Spatial frequency masking in human vision: Binocular interactions. Journal of the Optical Society of America, 69: 838-847]. These can now be seen as the envelope of the direct effects from interocular suppression and the indirect effect from binocular summation, which contaminates the signal channel with a mask that has been suppressed by the target. © 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Approximately optimal experimental design for heteroscedastic Gaussian process models

This paper presents a greedy Bayesian experimental design criterion for heteroscedastic Gaussian process models. The criterion is based on the Fisher information and is optimal in the sense of minimizing parameter uncertainty for likelihood based estimators. We demonstrate the validity of the criterion under different noise regimes and present experimental results from a rabies simulator to demonstrate the effectiveness of the resulting approximately optimal designs.

GIS linked environmental process models

In recent years there has been a great effort to combine the technologies and techniques of GIS and process models. This project examines the issues of linking a standard current generation 2½d GIS with several existing model codes. The focus for the project has been the Shropshire Groundwater Scheme, which is being developed to augment flow in the River Severn during drought periods by pumping water from the Shropshire Aquifer. Previous authors have demonstrated that under certain circumstances pumping could reduce the soil moisture available for crops. This project follows earlier work at Aston in which the effects of drawdown were delineated and quantified through the development of a software package that implemented a technique which brought together the significant spatially varying parameters. This technique is repeated here, but using a standard GIS called GRASS. The GIS proved adequate for the task and the added functionality provided by the general purpose GIS - the data capture, manipulation and visualisation facilities - were of great benefit. The bulk of the project is concerned with examining the issues of the linkage of GIS and environmental process models. To this end a groundwater model (Modflow) and a soil moisture model (SWMS2D) were linked to the GIS and a crop model was implemented within the GIS. A loose-linked approach was adopted and secondary and surrogate data were used wherever possible. The implications of which relate to; justification of a loose-linked versus a closely integrated approach; how, technically, to achieve the linkage; how to reconcile the different data models used by the GIS and the process models; control of the movement of data between models of environmental subsystems, to model the total system; the advantages and disadvantages of using a current generation GIS as a medium for linking environmental process models; generation of input data, including the use of geostatistic, stochastic simulation, remote sensing, regression equations and mapped data; issues of accuracy, uncertainty and simply providing adequate data for the complex models; how such a modelling system fits into an organisational framework.

Single process femtosecond microfabrication of key components for integrated optics

We present recent results on femtosecond microfabrication of key components for integrated optics such as highly curved low-loss waveguides in glasses, depressed cladding waveguides in crystals. Details of microfabrication and characterisation are discussed.

Single process femtosecond microfabrication of key components for integrated optics

We present recent results on femtosecond microfabrication of key components for integrated optics such as highly curved low-loss waveguides in glasses, depressed cladding waveguides in crystals. Details of microfabrication and characterisation are discussed. © 2009 Optical Society of America.

Process orientation and information technology:customer engagement at Xerox (UK) Ltd

Xerox Customer Engagement activity is informed by the "Go To Market" strategy, and "Intelligent Coverage" sales philosophy. The realisation of this philosophy necessitates a sophisticated level of Market Understanding, and the effective integration of the direct channels of Customer Engagement. Sophisticated Market Understanding requires the mapping and coding of the entire UK market at the DMU (Decision Making Unit) level, which in turn enables the creation of tailored coverage prescriptions. Effective Channel Integration is made possible by the organisation of Customer Engagement work according to a single, process defined structure: the Selling Process. Organising by process facilitates the discipline of Task Substitution, which leads logically to creation of Hybrid Selling models. Productive Customer Engagement requires Selling Process specialisation by industry sector, customer segment and product group. The research shows that Xerox's Market Database (MDB) plays a central role in delivering the Go To Market strategic aims. It is a tool for knowledge based selling, enables productive SFA (Sales Force Automation) and, in sum, is critical to the efficient and effective deployment of Customer Engagement resources. Intelligent Coverage is not possible without the MDB. Analysis of the case evidence has resulted in the definition of 60 idiographic statements. These statements are about how Xerox organise and manage three direct channels of Customer Engagement: Face to Face, Telebusiness and Ebusiness. Xerox is shown to employ a process-oriented, IT-enabled, holistic approach to Customer Engagement productivity. The significance of the research is that it represents a detailed (perhaps unequalled) level of rich description of the interplay between IT and a holistic, process-oriented management philosophy.

Online approximations for wind-field models

We study online approximations to Gaussian process models for spatially distributed systems. We apply our method to the prediction of wind fields over the ocean surface from scatterometer data. Our approach combines a sequential update of a Gaussian approximation to the posterior with a sparse representation that allows to treat problems with a large number of observations.

Chemical kinetic investigation of a commercial batch reactor process

The aim of this investigation was to study the chemical reactions occurring during the batchwise production of a butylated melamine-formaldehyde resin, in order to optimise the efficiency and economics of the batch processes. The batch process models are largely empirical in nature as the reaction mechanism is unknown. The process chemistry and the commercial manufacturing method are described. A small scale system was established in glass and the ability to produce laboratory resins with the required quality was demonstrated, simulating the full scale plant. During further experiments the chemical reactions of methylolation, condensation and butylation were studied. The important process stages were identified and studied separately. The effects of variation of certain process parameters on the chemical reactions were also studied. A published model of methylolation was modified and used to simulate the methylolation stage. A major result of this project was the development of an indirect method for studying the condensation and butylation reactions occurring during the dehydration and acid reaction stages, as direct quantitative methods were not available. A mass balance method was devised for this purpose and used to collect experimental data. The reaction scheme was verified using this data. The reactions stages were simulated using an empirical model. This has revealed new information regarding the mechanism and kinetics of the reactions. Laboratory results were shown to be comparable with plant scale results. This work has improved the understanding of the batch process, which can be used to improve product consistency. Future work has been identified and recommended to produce an optimum process and plant design to reduce the batch time.

Process integration and improvement using systemic diagrams and a human-centred approach

If product cycle time reduction is the mission, and the multifunctional team is the means of achieving the mission, what then is the modus operandi by which this means is to accomplish its mission? This paper asserts that a preferred modus operandi for the multifunctional team is to adopt a process-oriented view of the manufacturing enterprise, and for this it needs the medium of a process map [16] The substance of this paper is a methodology which enables the creation of such maps Specific examples of process models drawn from the product develop ment life cycle are presented and described in order to support the methodology's integrity and value The specific deliverables we have so far obtained are a methodology for process capture and analysis, a collection of process models spanning the product development cycle, and, an engineering handbook which hosts these models and presents a computer-based means of navigating through these processes in order to allow users a better understanding of the nature of the business, their role in it, and why the job that they do benefits the work of the company We assert that this kind of thinking is the essence of concurrent engineering implementation, and further that the systemigram process models uniquely stim ulate and organise such thinking.

Model evaluation and case series data

We discuss aggregation of data from neuropsychological patients and the process of evaluating models using data from a series of patients. We argue that aggregation can be misleading but not aggregating can also result in information loss. The basis for combining data needs to be theoretically defined, and the particular method of aggregation depends on the theoretical question and characteristics of the data. We present examples, often drawn from our own research, to illustrate these points. We also argue that statistical models and formal methods of model selection are a useful way to test theoretical accounts using data from several patients in multiple-case studies or case series. Statistical models can often measure fit in a way that explicitly captures what a theory allows; the parameter values that result from model fitting often measure theoretically important dimensions and can lead to more constrained theories or new predictions; and model selection allows the strength of evidence for models to be quantified without forcing this into the artificial binary choice that characterizes hypothesis testing methods. Methods that aggregate and then formally model patient data, however, are not automatically preferred to other methods. Which method is preferred depends on the question to be addressed, characteristics of the data, and practical issues like availability of suitable patients, but case series, multiple-case studies, single-case studies, statistical models, and process models should be complementary methods when guided by theory development.

An empirical examination of the strategic decision-making process:the relationship between context, process, and outcomes

Despite concerted academic interest in the strategic decision-making process (SDMP) since the 1980s, a coherent body of theory capable of guiding practice has not materialised. This is because many prior studies focus only on a single process characteristic, often rationality or comprehensiveness, and have paid insufficient attention to context. To further develop theory, research is required which examines: (i) the influence of context from multiple theoretical perspectives (e.g. upper echelons, environmental determinism); (ii) different process characteristics from both synoptic formal (e.g. rationality) and political incremental (e.g. politics) perspectives, and; (iii) the effects of context and process characteristics on a range of SDMP outcomes. Using data from 30 interviews and 357 questionnaires, this thesis addresses several opportunities for theory development by testing an integrative model which incorporates: (i) five SDMP characteristics representing both synoptic formal (procedural rationality, comprehensiveness, and behavioural integration) and political incremental (intuition, and political behaviour) perspectives; (ii) four SDMP outcome variables—strategic decision (SD) quality, implementation success, commitment, and SD speed, and; (iii) contextual variables from the four theoretical perspectives—upper echelons, SD-specific characteristics, environmental determinism, and firm characteristics. The present study makes several substantial and original contributions to knowledge. First, it provides empirical evidence of the contextual boundary conditions under which intuition and political behaviour positively influence SDMP outcomes. Second, it establishes the predominance of the upper echelons perspective; with TMT variables explaining significantly more variance in SDMP characteristics than SD specific characteristics, the external environment, and firm characteristics. A newly developed measure of top management team expertise also demonstrates highly significant direct and indirect effects on the SDMP. Finally, it is evident that SDMP characteristics and contextual variables influence a number of SDMP outcomes, not just overall SD quality, but also implementation success, commitment, and SD speed.