32 resultados para Simulation and prediction

em Aston University Research Archive


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The literature pertaining to the key stages of spray drying has been reviewed in the context of the mathematical modelling of drier performance. A critical review is also presented of previous spray drying models. A new mathematical model has been developed for prediction of spray drier performance. This is applicable to slurries of rigid, porous crust-forming materials to predict trajectories and drying profiles for droplets with a distribution of sizes sprayed from a centrifugal pressure nozzle. The model has been validated by comparing model predictions to experimental data from a pilot-scale counter-current drier and from a full-scale co-current drier. For the latter, the computed product moisture content was within 2%, and the computed air exit temperature within 10oC of experimental data. Air flow patterns have been investigated in a 1.2m diameter transparent countercurrent spray tower by flow visualisation. Smoke was introduced into various zones within the tower to trace the direction, and gauge the intensity, of the air flow. By means of a set of variable-angle air inlet nozzles, a variety of air entry configurations was investigated. The existence of a core of high rotational and axial velocity channelling up the axis of the tower was confirmed. The stability of flow within the core was found to be strongly dependent upon the air entry arrangement. A probe was developed for the measurement of air temperature and humidity profiles. This was employed for studying evaporation of pure water drops in a 1.2m diameter pilot-scale counter-current drier. A rapid approach to the exit air properties was detected within a 1m distance from the air entry ports. Measured radial profiles were found to be virtually flat but, from the axial profiles, the existence of plug-flow, well-mixed-flow and some degree of air short-circuiting can be inferred. The model and conclusions should assist in the improved design and optimum operation of industrial spray driers.

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In the analysis and prediction of many real-world time series, the assumption of stationarity is not valid. A special form of non-stationarity, where the underlying generator switches between (approximately) stationary regimes, seems particularly appropriate for financial markets. We introduce a new model which combines a dynamic switching (controlled by a hidden Markov model) and a non-linear dynamical system. We show how to train this hybrid model in a maximum likelihood approach and evaluate its performance on both synthetic and financial data.

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Machine breakdowns are one of the main sources of disruption and throughput fluctuation in highly automated production facilities. One element in reducing this disruption is ensuring that the maintenance team responds correctly to machine failures. It is, however, difficult to determine the current practice employed by the maintenance team, let alone suggest improvements to it. 'Knowledge based improvement' is a methodology that aims to address this issue, by (a) eliciting knowledge on current practice, (b) evaluating that practice and (c) looking for improvements. The methodology, based on visual interactive simulation and artificial intelligence methods, and its application to a Ford engine assembly facility are described. Copyright © 2002 Society of Automotive Engineers, Inc.

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The performance of most operations systems is significantly affected by the interaction of human decision-makers. A methodology, based on the use of visual interactive simulation (VIS) and artificial intelligence (AI), is described that aims to identify and improve human decision-making in operations systems. The methodology, known as 'knowledge-based improvement' (KBI), elicits knowledge from a decision-maker via a VIS and then uses AI methods to represent decision-making. By linking the VIS and AI representation, it is possible to predict the performance of the operations system under different decision-making strategies and to search for improved strategies. The KBI methodology is applied to the decision-making surrounding unplanned maintenance operations at a Ford Motor Company engine assembly plant.

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Two experiments examined the effects of majority and minority influence on attitude-consistent behavioral intentions. In the first experiment, when attitudes were changed via minority influence there was a greater likelihood to engage in an attitude-consistent behavioral intention than when attitudes were changed via majority influence. This suggests that minority influence leads to stronger attitudes (based on systematic processing) that are more predictive of behavioral intentions, while attitude change via majority influence is due to compliance through non-systematic processing. Further support for this interpretation comes from the finding that the amount of message-congruent elaboration mediated behavioral intention. When there was no attitude change, there was no impact on behavioral intention to engage in an attitude-consistent behavior. Experiment 2 explored the role of personal relevance of the topic and also included a real behavioral measure. When the topic was of low personal relevance, the same pattern was found as Experiment 1. When the topic was of high personal relevance, thus increasing the motivation to engage in systematic processing, attitudes changed by both a majority and minority source increased behavioral intention and actual behavior. The results are consistent with the view that both majorities and minorities can lead to different processes and consequences under different situations. © 2006 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

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Open-loop operatlon of the stepping motor exploits the inherent advantages of the machine. For near optimum operation: in this mode, however, an accurate system model is required to facilitate controller design. Such a model must be comprehensive and take account of the non-linearities inherent in the system. The result is a complex formulation which can be made manageable with a computational aid. A digital simulation of a hybrid type stepping motor and its associated drive circuit is proposed. The simulation is based upon a block diagram model which includes reasonable approximations to the major non-linearities. The simulation is shown to yield accurate performance predictions. The determination of the transfer functions is based upon the consideration of the physical processes involved rather than upon direct input-outout measurements. The effects of eddy currents, saturation, hysteresis, drive circuit characteristics and non-linear torque displacement characteristics are considered and methods of determining transfer functions, which take account of these effects, are offered. The static torque displacement characteristic is considered in detail and a model is proposed which predicts static torque for any combination of phase currents and shaft position. Methods of predicting the characteristic directly from machine geometry are investigated. Drive circuit design for high efficiency operation is considered and a model of a bipolar, bilevel circuit is proposed. The transfers between stator voltage and stator current and between stator current and air gap flux are complicated by the effects of eddy currents, saturation and hysteresis. Frequency response methods, combined with average inductance measurements, are shown to yield reasonable transfer functions. The modelling procedure and subsequent digital simulation is concluded to be a powerful method of non-linear analysis.

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This thesis describes the development of a simple and accurate method for estimating the quantity and composition of household waste arisings. The method is based on the fundamental tenet that waste arisings can be predicted from information on the demographic and socio-economic characteristics of households, thus reducing the need for the direct measurement of waste arisings to that necessary for the calibration of a prediction model. The aim of the research is twofold: firstly to investigate the generation of waste arisings at the household level, and secondly to devise a method for supplying information on waste arisings to meet the needs of waste collection and disposal authorities, policy makers at both national and European level and the manufacturers of plant and equipment for waste sorting and treatment. The research was carried out in three phases: theoretical, empirical and analytical. In the theoretical phase specific testable hypotheses were formulated concerning the process of waste generation at the household level. The empirical phase of the research involved an initial questionnaire survey of 1277 households to obtain data on their socio-economic characteristics, and the subsequent sorting of waste arisings from each of the households surveyed. The analytical phase was divided between (a) the testing of the research hypotheses by matching each household's waste against its demographic/socioeconomic characteristics (b) the development of statistical models capable of predicting the waste arisings from an individual household and (c) the development of a practical method for obtaining area-based estimates of waste arisings using readily available data from the national census. The latter method was found to represent a substantial improvement over conventional methods of waste estimation in terms of both accuracy and spatial flexibility. The research therefore represents a substantial contribution both to scientific knowledge of the process of household waste generation, and to the practical management of waste arisings.

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A fine control of the microstructured polymer fiber Bragg grating spectrum properties, such as maximum reflected power and 3-dB bandwidth, through acousto-optic modulation is presented. For simulation purposes, the device is modelled as a single structure, comprising a silica horn and a fiber Bragg grating. For similar sized structures a good correlation between the numerical results and the experimental data is obtained, allowing the strain field to be completely characterized along the whole structure. It is also shown that the microstructured polymer fiber Bragg grating requires less effort from the piezoelectric actuator to produce modification in the grating spectrum when compared with a silica fiber Bragg grating. This technique has potential to be applied on tunable optical filters and tunable cavities for photonic applications.

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The simulation of two-phase flow in bubble columns using commercially available software fromFluent Incorporated is presented here. Data from a bubble column with a ratio of height to thecolumn diameter of 5 : 1 are compared with simulations and experimental results for time-averaged velocity and Reynolds stress proles are used to validate transient, two-dimensional simulations.The models are based on multiphase biological reactors with applications in the food industry. An example case of the mass transfer of oxygen through the liquid phase is also presented.

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A status report of the modelling and simulation work that is being undertaken as part of the TIMES (Totally Integrated More Electric Systems) project is presented. Dynamic power quality simulations have been used to asses the performance of the electrical system of a EMA based actuation system for an Airbus A330 size aircraft, for both low voltage 115 V, and high voltage 230 V three-phase AC systems. The high voltage system is shown to have benefits in terms of power quality and reduced size and weight of equipment.

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A microcap SPICE circuit-level model of a 12-pulse autotransformer based rectifier for an aircraft fuel-pump motor drive is described. The importance of including the nonlinear magnetising inductance of the interphase transformers is illustrated. Small supply voltage distortions are seen to result in current imbalance in the interphase transformers, degrading the rectifier input current, and may lead to infringement of the power quality specification. The model has been validated for various operating supply voltages, frequencies and output powers, against measurements from a 3.75 kW unit.