Using a simulation model for knowledge elicitation and knowledge management

The work reported in this paper is part of a project simulating maintenance operations in an automotive engine production facility. The decisions made by the people in charge of these operations form a crucial element of this simulation. Eliciting this knowledge is problematic. One approach is to use the simulation model as part of the knowledge elicitation process. This paper reports on the experience so far with using a simulation model to support knowledge management in this way. Issues are discussed regarding the data available, the use of the model, and the elicitation process itself. © 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Using simulation for facility design: a case study

A discrete event simulation model was developed and used to estimate the storage area required for a proposed overseas textile manufacturing facility. It was found that the simulation was able to achieve this because of its ability to both store attribute values and to show queuing levels at an individual product level. It was also found that the process of undertaking the simulation project initiated useful discussions regarding the operation of the facility. Discrete event simulation is shown to be much more than an exercise in quantitative analysis of results and an important task of the simulation project manager is to initiate a debate among decision makers regarding the assumptions of how the system operates.

The effect of pH on PAMAM dendrimer-siRNA complexation:endosomal considerations as determined by molecular dynamics simulation

Intracellular degradation of genes, most notably within the endo-lysosomal compartment is considered a significant barrier to (non-viral) gene delivery in vivo. Previous reports based on in vitro studies claim that carriers possessing a mixture of primary, secondary and tertiary amines are able to buffer the acidic environment within the endosome, allowing for timely release of their contents, leading to higher transfection rates. In this report, we adopt an atomistic molecular dynamics (MD) simulation approach, comparing the complexation of 21-bp siRNA with low-generation polyamidoamine (PAMAM) dendrimers (G0 and G1) at both neutral and acidic pHs, the latter of which mimics the degradative environment within maturing 'late-endosomes'. Our simulations reveal that the time taken for the dendrimer-gene complex (dendriplex) to reach equilibrium is appreciably longer at low pH and this is accompanied by more compact packaging of the dendriplex, as compared to simulations performed at neutral pH. We also note larger absolute values of calculated binding free energies of the dendriplex at low pH, indicating a higher dendrimer-nucleic acid affinity in comparison with neutral pH. These novel simulations provide a more detailed understanding of low molecular-weight polymer-siRNA behavior, mimicking the endosomal environment and provide input of direct relevance to the "proton sponge theory", thereby advancing the rational design of non-viral gene delivery systems.

Risk homeostasis theory in simulated environments

This thesis has two aims. First, it sets out to develop an alternative methodology for the investigation of risk homeostasis theory (RHT). It is argued that the current methodologies of the pseudo-experimental design and post hoc analysis of road-traffic accident data both have their limitations, and that the newer 'game' type simulation exercises are also, but for different reasons, incapable of testing RHT predictions. The alternative methodology described here is based on the simulation of physical risk with intrinsic reward rather than a 'points pay-off'. The second aim of the thesis is to examine a number of predictions made by RHT through the use of this alternative methodology. Since the pseudo-experimental design and post hoc analysis of road-traffic data are both ill-suited to the investigation of that part of RHT which deals with the role of utility in determining risk-taking behaviour in response to a change in environmental risk, and since the concept of utility is critical to RHT, the methodology reported here is applied to the specific investigation of utility. Attention too is given to the question of which behavioural pathways carry the homeostasis effect, and whether those pathways are 'local' to the nature of the change in environmental risk. It is suggested that investigating RHT through this new methodology holds a number of advantages and should be developed further in an attempt to answer the RHT question. It is suggested too that the methodology allows RHT to be seen in a psychological context, rather than the statistical context that has so far characterised its investigation. The experimental findings reported here are in support of hypotheses derived from RHT and would therefore seem to argue for the importance of the individual and collective target level of risk, as opposed to the level of environmental risk, as the major determinant of accident loss.

Humans:the missing link in manufacturing simulation?

Computer based discrete event simulation (DES) is one of the most commonly used aids for the design of automotive manufacturing systems. However, DES tools represent machines in extensive detail, while only representing workers as simple resources. This presents a problem when modelling systems with a highly manual work content, such as an assembly line. This paper describes research at Cranfield University, in collaboration with the Ford Motor Company, founded on the assumption that human variation is the cause of a large percentage of the disparity between simulation predictions and real world performance. The research aims to improve the accuracy and reliability of simulation prediction by including models of human factors.

Government preparedness:using simulation to prepare for a terrorist attack

The heightened threat of terrorism has caused governments worldwide to plan for responding to large-scale catastrophic incidents. In England the New Dimension Programme supplies equipment, procedures and training to the Fire and Rescue Service to ensure the country's preparedness to respond to a range of major critical incidents. The Fire and Rescue Service is involved partly by virtue of being able to very quickly mobilize a large skilled workforce and specialist equipment. This paper discusses the use of discrete event simulation modeling to understand how a fire and rescue service might position its resources before an incident takes place, to best respond to a combination of different incidents at different locations if they happen. Two models are built for this purpose. The first model deals with mass decontamination of a population following a release of a hazardous substance—aiming to study resource requirements (vehicles, equipment and manpower) necessary to meet performance targets. The second model deals with the allocation of resources across regions—aiming to study cover level and response times, analyzing different allocations of resources, both centralized and decentralized. Contributions to theory and practice in other contexts (e.g. the aftermath of natural disasters such as earthquakes) are outlined.

Credibility theory-based available transfer capability assessment

Since the development of large scale power grid interconnections and power markets, research on available transfer capability (ATC) has attracted great attention. The challenges for accurate assessment of ATC originate from the numerous uncertainties in electricity generation, transmission, distribution and utilization sectors. Power system uncertainties can be mainly described as two types: randomness and fuzziness. However, the traditional transmission reliability margin (TRM) approach only considers randomness. Based on credibility theory, this paper firstly built models of generators, transmission lines and loads according to their features of both randomness and fuzziness. Then a random fuzzy simulation is applied, along with a novel method proposed for ATC assessment, in which both randomness and fuzziness are considered. The bootstrap method and multi-core parallel computing technique are introduced to enhance the processing speed. By implementing simulation for the IEEE-30-bus system and a real-life system located in Northwest China, the viability of the models and the proposed method is verified.

Implementing an agent-based model with a spatial visual display in discrete-event simulation software

There has been an increasing interest in the use of agent-based simulation and some discussion of the relative merits of this approach as compared to discrete-event simulation. There are differing views on whether an agent-based simulation offers capabilities that discrete-event cannot provide or whether all agent-based applications can at least in theory be undertaken using a discrete-event approach. This paper presents a simple agent-based NetLogo model and corresponding discrete-event versions implemented in the widely used ARENA software. The two versions of the discrete-event model presented use a traditional process flow approach normally adopted in discrete-event simulation software and also an agent-based approach to the model build. In addition a real-time spatial visual display facility is provided using a spreadsheet platform controlled by VBA code embedded within the ARENA model. Initial findings from this investigation are that discrete-event simulation can indeed be used to implement agent-based models and with suitable integration elements such as VBA provide the spatial displays associated with agent-based software.