Bayesian data assimilation

This thesis addresses data assimilation, which typically refers to the estimation of the state of a physical system given a model and observations, and its application to short-term precipitation forecasting. A general introduction to data assimilation is given, both from a deterministic and' stochastic point of view. Data assimilation algorithms are reviewed, in the static case (when no dynamics are involved), then in the dynamic case. A double experiment on two non-linear models, the Lorenz 63 and the Lorenz 96 models, is run and the comparative performance of the methods is discussed in terms of quality of the assimilation, robustness "in the non-linear regime and computational time. Following the general review and analysis, data assimilation is discussed in the particular context of very short-term rainfall forecasting (nowcasting) using radar images. An extended Bayesian precipitation nowcasting model is introduced. The model is stochastic in nature and relies on the spatial decomposition of the rainfall field into rain "cells". Radar observations are assimilated using a Variational Bayesian method in which the true posterior distribution of the parameters is approximated by a more tractable distribution. The motion of the cells is captured by a 20 Gaussian process. The model is tested on two precipitation events, the first dominated by convective showers, the second by precipitation fronts. Several deterministic and probabilistic validation methods are applied and the model is shown to retain reasonable prediction skill at up to 3 hours lead time. Extensions to the model are discussed.

Sustainable purchasing practices:an investigation into current industry awareness and practice

This research study illustrates the importance of sustainable purchasing practices for organizations in the U.S. distribution industry and answers several important questions: what is the current awareness of U.S. organizations regarding sustainable purchasing practices; to what extent are U.S. organizations evaluating, selecting, and retaining suppliers based upon sustainable purchasing practices; and to what extent are sustainable purchasing practices being implemented by the U.S. organizations under study? With an ever increasing global economy, is it critically important for organizations to put in place sustainability practices; the biggest impact organizations can make is often in an organization’s purchasing department. The researcher begins by explaining the reasoning for conducting the research, and then builds the readers’ understanding of sustainability in a supply chain environment. It then moves to the subject of how sustainable purchasing can be an advantageous method for bringing about “triple bottom line” savings to an organization. This section is followed by the researcher’s methodology and ending results for a survey conducted to examine the current awareness and implementation of sustainable purchasing practices among U.S. plumbing, heating, cooling and piping (PHCP) distribution firms who participated in the study.

Responsive fixture design using dynamic product inspection and monitoring technologies for the precision machining of large-scale aerospace parts

When machining a large-scale aerospace part, the part is normally located and clamped firmly until a set of features are machined. When the part is released, its size and shape may deform beyond the tolerance limits due to stress release. This paper presents the design of a new fixing method and flexible fixtures that would automatically respond to workpiece deformation during machining. Deformation is inspected and monitored on-line, and part location and orientation can be adjusted timely to ensure follow-up operations are carried out under low stress and with respect to the related datum defined in the design models.

Review of the application of flexible, measurement-assisted assembly technology in aircraft manufacturing

Aircraft assembly is the most important part of aircraft manufacturing. A large number of assembly fixtures must be used to ensure the assembly accuracy in the aircraft assembly process. Traditional fixed assembly fixture could not satisfy the change of the aircraft types, so the digital flexible assembly fixture was developed and was gradually applied in the aircraft assembly. Digital flexible assembly technology has also become one of the research directions in the field of aircraft manufacturing. The aircraft flexible assembly can be divided into three assembly stages that include component-level flexible assembly, large component-level flexible assembly, and large components alignment and joining. This article introduces the architecture of flexible assembly systems and the principles of three types of flexible assembly fixtures. The key technologies of the digital flexible assembly are also discussed. The digital metrology system provides the basis for the accurate digital flexible assembly. Aircraft flexible assembly systems mainly use laser tracking metrology systems and indoor Global Positioning System metrology systems. With the development of flexible assembly technology, the digital flexible assembly system will be widely used in current aircraft manufacturing.

The Metrology Enhanced Tooling for Aerospace (META) framework

Aerospace manufacturers typically use monolithic steel fixtures to control the form of assemblies. This tooling is very expensive, has long lead times and has little ability to accommodate product variation and design changes. Since the tool setting and recertification process is manual and time consuming, monolithic structures are required in order to maintain the tooling tolerances for multiple years without recertification. This paper introduces the Metrology Enhanced Tooling for Aerospace (META) Framework which interfaces multiple metrology technologies with the tooling, components, workers and automation. This will allow rapid or even real-time fixture re-certification with improved product verification leading to a reduced risk of product non-conformance and increased fixture utilization while facilitating flexible fixtures.