Quantifying simulator discrepancy in discrete-time dynamical simulators

When making predictions with complex simulators it can be important to quantify the various sources of uncertainty. Errors in the structural specification of the simulator, for example due to missing processes or incorrect mathematical specification, can be a major source of uncertainty, but are often ignored. We introduce a methodology for inferring the discrepancy between the simulator and the system in discrete-time dynamical simulators. We assume a structural form for the discrepancy function, and show how to infer the maximum-likelihood parameter estimates using a particle filter embedded within a Monte Carlo expectation maximization (MCEM) algorithm. We illustrate the method on a conceptual rainfall-runoff simulator (logSPM) used to model the Abercrombie catchment in Australia. We assess the simulator and discrepancy model on the basis of their predictive performance using proper scoring rules. This article has supplementary material online. © 2011 International Biometric Society.

The Proinflammatory Environment in Potential Heart and Lung Donors: Prevalence and Impact of Donor Management and Hormonal Therapy

BACKGROUND: Brain stem death can elicit a potentially manipulable cardiotoxic proinflammatory cytokine response. We investigated the prevalence of this response, the impact of donor management with tri-iodothyronine (T3) and methylprednisolone (MP) administration, and the relationship of biomarkers to organ function and transplant suitability. METHODS: In a prospective randomized double-blinded factorially designed study of T3 and MP therapy, we measured serum levels of interleukin-1 and -6 (IL-1 and IL-6), tumor necrosis factor-alpha (TNF-alpha), C-reactive protein, and procalcitonin (PCT) levels in 79 potential heart or lung donors. Measurements were performed before and after 4 hr of algorithm-based donor management to optimize cardiorespiratory function and +/-hormone treatment. Donors were assigned to receive T3, MP, both drugs, or placebo. RESULTS: Initial IL-1 was elevated in 16% donors, IL-6 in 100%, TNF-alpha in 28%, CRP in 98%, and PCT in 87%. Overall biomarker concentrations did not change between initial and later measurements and neither T3 nor MP effected any change. Both PCT (P =0.02) and TNF-alpha (P =0.044) levels were higher in donor hearts with marginal hemodynamics at initial assessment. Higher PCT levels were related to worse cardiac index and right and left ventricular ejection fractions and a PCT level more than 2 ng x mL(-1) may attenuate any improvement in cardiac index gained by donor management. No differences were observed between initially marginal and nonmarginal donor lungs. A PCT level less than or equal to 2 ng x mL(-1) but not other biomarkers predicted transplant suitability following management. CONCLUSIONS: There is high prevalence of a proinflammatory environment in the organ donor that is not affected by tri-iodothyronine or MP therapy. High PCT and TNF-alpha levels are associated with donor heart dysfunction. (C) 2009 Lippincott Williams & Wilkins, Inc.

Topological versus chemical ordering in network glasses at intermediate and extended length scales

Atomic ordering in network glasses on length scales longer than nearest-neighbour length scales has long been a source of controversy(1-6). Detailed experimental information is therefore necessary to understand both the network properties and the fundamentals of glass formation. Here we address the problem by investigating topological and chemical ordering in structurally disordered AX2 systems by applying the method of isotopic substitution in neutron diffraction to glassy ZnCl2. This system may be regarded as a prototypical ionic network forming glass, provided that ion polarization effects are taken into account(7), and has thus been the focus of much attention(8-14). By experiment, we show that both the topological and chemical ordering are described by two length scales at distances greater than nearest-neighbour length scales. One of these is associated with the intermediate range, as manifested by the appearance in the measured diffraction patterns of a first sharp diffraction peak at 1.09( 3) angstrom(-1); the other is associated with an extended range, which shows ordering in the glass out to 62( 4) angstrom. We also find that these general features are characteristic of glassy GeSe2, a prototypical covalently bonded network material(15,16). The results therefore offer structural insight into those length scales that determine many important aspects of supercooled liquid and glass phenomenology(11).