Modelling data and voice traffic over IP networks using continuous-time Markov models

Common approaches to IP-traffic modelling have featured the use of stochastic models, based on the Markov property, which can be classified into black box and white box models based on the approach used for modelling traffic. White box models, are simple to understand, transparent and have a physical meaning attributed to each of the associated parameters. To exploit this key advantage, this thesis explores the use of simple classic continuous-time Markov models based on a white box approach, to model, not only the network traffic statistics but also the source behaviour with respect to the network and application. The thesis is divided into two parts: The first part focuses on the use of simple Markov and Semi-Markov traffic models, starting from the simplest two-state model moving upwards to n-state models with Poisson and non-Poisson statistics. The thesis then introduces the convenient to use, mathematically derived, Gaussian Markov models which are used to model the measured network IP traffic statistics. As one of the most significant contributions, the thesis establishes the significance of the second-order density statistics as it reveals that, in contrast to first-order density, they carry much more unique information on traffic sources and behaviour. The thesis then exploits the use of Gaussian Markov models to model these unique features and finally shows how the use of simple classic Markov models coupled with use of second-order density statistics provides an excellent tool for capturing maximum traffic detail, which in itself is the essence of good traffic modelling. The second part of the thesis, studies the ON-OFF characteristics of VoIP traffic with reference to accurate measurements of the ON and OFF periods, made from a large multi-lingual database of over 100 hours worth of VoIP call recordings. The impact of the language, prosodic structure and speech rate of the speaker on the statistics of the ON-OFF periods is analysed and relevant conclusions are presented. Finally, an ON-OFF VoIP source model with log-normal transitions is contributed as an ideal candidate to model VoIP traffic and the results of this model are compared with those of previously published work.

Optimising market share and profit margin:SMDP-based tariff pricing under the smart grid paradigm

Smart grid technologies have given rise to a liberalised and decentralised electricity market, enabling energy providers and retailers to have a better understanding of the demand side and its response to pricing signals. This paper puts forward a reinforcement-learning-powered tool aiding an electricity retailer to define the tariff prices it offers, in a bid to optimise its retail strategy. In a competitive market, an energy retailer aims to simultaneously increase the number of contracted customers and its profit margin. We have abstracted the problem of deciding on a tariff price as faced by a retailer, as a semi-Markov decision problem (SMDP). A hierarchical reinforcement learning approach, MaxQ value function decomposition, is applied to solve the SMDP through interactions with the market. To evaluate our trading strategy, we developed a retailer agent (termed AstonTAC) that uses the proposed SMDP framework to act in an open multi-agent simulation environment, the Power Trading Agent Competition (Power TAC). An evaluation and analysis of the 2013 Power TAC finals show that AstonTAC successfully selects sell prices that attract as many customers as necessary to maximise the profit margin. Moreover, during the competition, AstonTAC was the only retailer agent performing well across all retail market settings.

Language independent on-off voice over IP source model with lognormal transitions

The recent explosive growth of voice over IP (VoIP) solutions calls for accurate modelling of VoIP traffic. This study presents measurements of ON and OFF periods of VoIP activity from a significantly large database of VoIP call recordings consisting of native speakers speaking in some of the world's most widely spoken languages. The impact of the languages and the varying dynamics of caller interaction on the ON and OFF period statistics are assessed. It is observed that speaker interactions dominate over language dependence which makes monologue-based data unreliable for traffic modelling. The authors derive a semi-Markov model which accurately reproduces the statistics of composite dialogue measurements. © The Institution of Engineering and Technology 2013.

An efficient knowledge transfer solution to a novel SMDP formalization of a broker's decision problem

This paper introduces a new technique for optimizing the trading strategy of brokers that autonomously trade in re- tail and wholesale markets. Simultaneous optimization of re- tail and wholesale strategies has been considered by existing studies as intractable. Therefore, each of these strategies is optimized separately and their interdependence is generally ignored, with resulting broker agents not aiming for a glob- ally optimal retail and wholesale strategy. In this paper, we propose a novel formalization, based on a semi-Markov deci- sion process (SMDP), which globally and simultaneously op- timizes retail and wholesale strategies. The SMDP is solved using hierarchical reinforcement learning (HRL) in multi- agent environments. To address the curse of dimensionality, which arises when applying SMDP and HRL to complex de- cision problems, we propose an ecient knowledge transfer approach. This enables the reuse of learned trading skills in order to speed up the learning in new markets, at the same time as making the broker transportable across market envi- ronments. The proposed SMDP-broker has been thoroughly evaluated in two well-established multi-agent simulation en- vironments within the Trading Agent Competition (TAC) community. Analysis of controlled experiments shows that this broker can outperform the top TAC-brokers. More- over, our broker is able to perform well in a wide range of environments by re-using knowledge acquired in previously experienced settings.

Shell-side transfer in shell-and-tube heat exchangers

Local mass transfer coefficients were determined by using the electrochemical technique. A simple model of a heat exchanger with segmental nickel tube joined to p.v.c. rods replaced the exchanger tubes. Measurements were made for both no-Ieakage, semi-leakage and total leakage configurations. Baffle-spacings of 47.6 mm, 66.6 mm, 97 mm and 149.2 mm wer studied. Also studied were the overall exchanger pressure drops for each configuration. The comparison of the heat transfer data with this work showed good agreement at high flow rates for the no-leakage case, but the agreement became poor for lower flow rates and leakage configurations. This disagreement was explained by non-analogous driving forces existing in the two systems. The no-leakage data showed length-wise variation of transfer coefficients along the exchanger length. The end compartments showing transfer coefficients inferior by up to 26% compared to tbe internal compartments, depending on Reynolds number. With the introduction of leakage streams this variation however became smaller than the experimental accuracy. A model is outlined to show the characteristic behaviour of individual electrode segments within the compartment. This was able to discriminate between cross and window zones for the no- leakage case, but no such distinction could be made for the leakage case. A flow area was found which, when incorporated in the Reynolds number, enabled the correlation of baffle-cut and baffle-spacing parameters for the no-leakage case . This area is the free flow area determined at the baffle edge. Addition of the leakage area to this flow area resulted in correlation of all commercial leakage geometrical parameters. The procedures used to correlate the pressure drop data from a total of eighteen different configurations on a single curve are also outlined.

The missing ingredient:inter-municipal cooperation and central-local relations in the UK

The thrust of the argument presented in this chapter is that inter-municipal cooperation (IMC) in the United Kingdom reflects local government's constitutional position and its exposure to the exigencies of Westminster (elected central government) and Whitehall (centre of the professional civil service that services central government). For the most part councils are without general powers of competence and are restricted in what they can do by Parliament. This suggests that the capacity for locally driven IMC is restricted and operates principally within a framework constructed by central government's policy objectives and legislation and the political expediencies of the governing political party. In practice, however, recent examples of IMC demonstrate that the practices are more complex than this initial analysis suggests. Central government may exert top-down pressures and impose hierarchical directives, but there are important countervailing forces. Constitutional changes in Scotland and Wales have shifted the locus of central- local relations away from Westminster and Whitehall. In England, the seeding of English government regional offices in 1994 has evolved into an important structural arrangement that encourages councils to work together. Within the local government community there is now widespread acknowledgement that to achieve the ambitious targets set by central government, councils are, by necessity, bound to cooperate and work with other agencies. In recent years, the fragmentation of public service delivery has affected the scope of IMC. Elected local government in the UK is now only one piece of a complex jigsaw of agencies that provides services to the public; whether it is with non-elected bodies, such as health authorities, public protection authorities (police and fire), voluntary nonprofit organisations or for-profit bodies, councils are expected to cooperate widely with agencies in their localities. Indeed, for projects such as regeneration and community renewal, councils may act as the coordinating agency but the success of such projects is measured by collaboration and partnership working (Davies 2002). To place these developments in context, IMC is an example of how, in spite of the fragmentation of traditional forms of government, councils work with other public service agencies and other councils through the medium of interagency partnerships, collaboration between organisations and a mixed economy of service providers. Such an analysis suggests that, following changes to the system of local government, contemporary forms of IMC are less dependent on vertical arrangements (top-down direction from central government) as they are replaced by horizontal modes (expansion of networks and partnership arrangements). Evidence suggests, however that central government continues to steer local authorities through the agency of inspectorates and regulatory bodies, and through policy initiatives, such as local strategic partnerships and local area agreements (Kelly 2006), thus questioning whether, in the case of UK local government, the shift from hierarchy to network and market solutions is less differentiated and transformation less complete than some literature suggests. Vertical or horizontal pressures may promote IMC, yet similar drivers may deter collaboration between local authorities. An example of negative vertical pressure was central government's change of the systems of local taxation during the 1980s. The new taxation regime replaced a tax on property with a tax on individual residency. Although the community charge lasted only a few years, it was a highpoint of the then Conservative government policy that encouraged councils to compete with each other on the basis of the level of local taxation. In practice, however, the complexity of local government funding in the UK rendered worthless any meaningful ambition of councils competing with each other, especially as central government granting to local authorities is predicated (however imperfectly) on at least notional equalisation between those areas with lower tax yields and the more prosperous locations. Horizontal pressures comprise factors such as planning decisions. Over the last quarter century, councils have competed on the granting of permission to out-of-town retail and leisure complexes, now recognised as detrimental to neighbouring authorities because economic forces prevail and local, independent shops are unable to compete with multiple companies. These examples illustrate tensions at the core of the UK polity of whether IMC is feasible when competition between local authorities heightened by local differences reduces opportunities for collaboration. An alternative perspective on IMC is to explore whether specific purposes or functions promote or restrict it. Whether in the principle areas of local government responsibilities relating to social welfare, development and maintenance of the local infrastructure or environmental matters, there are examples of IMC. But opportunities have diminished considerably as councils lost responsibility for services provision as a result of privatisation and transfer of powers to new government agencies or to central government. Over the last twenty years councils have lost their role in the provision of further-or higher-education, public transport and water/sewage. Councils have commissioning power but only a limited presence in providing housing needs, social care and waste management. In other words, as a result of central government policy, there are, in practice, currently far fewer opportunities for councils to cooperate. Since 1997, the New Labour government has promoted IMC through vertical drivers and the development; the operation of these policy initiatives is discussed following the framework of the editors. Current examples of IMC are notable for being driven by higher tiers of government, working with subordinate authorities in principal-agent relations. Collaboration between local authorities and intra-interand cross-sectoral partnerships are initiated by central government. In other words, IMC is shaped by hierarchical drivers from higher levels of government but, in practice, is locally varied and determined less by formula than by necessity and function. © 2007 Springer.

Q parameter estimation using numerical simulations for linear and nonlinear transmission systems

We compare the Q parameter obtained from scalar, semi-analytical and full vector models for realistic transmission systems. One set of systems is operated in the linear regime, while another is using solitons at high peak power. We report in detail on the different results obtained for the same system using different models. Polarisation mode dispersion is also taken into account and a novel method to average Q parameters over several independent simulation runs is described. © 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Enforceability of leasehold covenants and the landlord and tenant (Covenants) Act 1995

Describes the impact of the English Landlord and Tenant (Covenants) Act 1995, reforming liability in the context of new leases, extending the 'touching and concerning' requirement so all covenants 'run with the land' (with some exceptions), and abolishing the enduring liability of the original tenants and landlords. Explains that landlords will have more freedom to prescribe in advance the circumstances in which they consent to an assignment, referring also to changes in default notices requiring an 'early warning' to defaulters, and overriding leases, with a remedy for former tenants. Expects future leases to be shorter as landlords realize they cannot hold original tenants liable any more.

Review of industrial temperature measurement technologies and research priorities for the thermal characterisation of the factories of the future

As the largest source of dimensional measurement uncertainty, addressing the challenges of thermal variation is vital to ensure product and equipment integrity in the factories of the future. While it is possible to closely control room temperature, this is often not practical or economical to realise in all cases where inspection is required. This article reviews recent progress and trends in seven key commercially available industrial temperature measurement sensor technologies primarily in the range of 0 °C–50 °C for invasive, semi-invasive and non-invasive measurement. These sensors will ultimately be used to measure and model thermal variation in the assembly, test and integration environment. The intended applications for these technologies are presented alongside some consideration of measurement uncertainty requirements with regard to the thermal expansion of common materials. Research priorities are identified and discussed for each of the technologies as well as temperature measurement at large. Future developments are briefly discussed to provide some insight into which direction the development and application of temperature measurement technologies are likely to head.