A general linear model for MEG beamformer imaging

A new general linear model (GLM) beamformer method is described for processing magnetoencephalography (MEG) data. A standard nonlinear beamformer is used to determine the time course of neuronal activation for each point in a predefined source space. A Hilbert transform gives the envelope of oscillatory activity at each location in any chosen frequency band (not necessary in the case of sustained (DC) fields), enabling the general linear model to be applied and a volumetric T statistic image to be determined. The new method is illustrated by a two-source simulation (sustained field and 20 Hz) and is shown to provide accurate localization. The method is also shown to locate accurately the increasing and decreasing gamma activities to the temporal and frontal lobes, respectively, in the case of a scintillating scotoma. The new method brings the advantages of the general linear model to the analysis of MEG data and should prove useful for the localization of changing patterns of activity across all frequency ranges including DC (sustained fields). © 2004 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A two-factor model of the U.K. yield curve

I model the forward premium in the U.K. gilt-edged market over the period 1982–96 using a two-factor general equilibrium model of the term structure of interest rates. The model permits the decomposition of the forward premium into separate components representing interest rate expectations, the risk premia associated with each of the underlying factors, and terms capturing the direct impact of the variances of the factors on the shape of the forward curve.

Biofuel subsidies and international trade

This paper explores optimal biofuel subsidies in a general equilibrium trade model. The focus is on the production of biofuels such as corn-based ethanol, which diverts corn from use as food. In the small-country case, when the tax on crude is not available as a policy option, a second-best biofuel subsidy may or may not be positive. In the large-country case, the twin objectives of pollution reduction and terms-of-trade improvement justify a combination of crude tax and biofuel subsidy for the food exporter. Finally, we show that when both nations engage in biofuel policies, the terms-of-trade effects encourage the Nash equilibrium subsidy to be positive (negative) for the food exporting (importing) nation. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Total solution of Gibilaro and Rowe model for a segregating fluidised bed

This study re-examines the one-dimensional equilibrium model of Gibilaro and Rowe (1974) for a segregating gas fluidized bed. The model was based on volumetric jetsam concentration and divided the bed contents into bulk and wake phases, taking account of bulk and wake flux, segregation, exchange between the bulk and wake phases, and axial mixing. Due to the complex nature of the model and its unstable solution, the lack of computing power at the time prevented the authors from doing little more than the analytical solutions to specific cases of this model. This paper provides a numerical total solution and allows the effect of the respective parameters to be compared for the first time. There is also a comparison with experimental results, which showed a reasonable agreement.

Why are aggregate equity payouts pro-cyclical?

We use two general equilibrium models to explain why changes in the external economic environment result in pro-cyclical aggregate dividend payout behavior. Both models that we consider endogenize low elasticity of investment. The first model incorporates capital adjustment costs, while the second one assumes that risk-averse managers maximize their own objective function rather than shareholder wealth. We show that, while both models generate pro-cyclical aggregate dividends, a feature consistent with the observed business-cycle pattern of payouts from well-diversified portfolios, the second model provides a more likely explanation for this effect. Our findings emphasize the importance of incorporating agency conflicts when considering the relationship between the external economic environment and the financial behavior of businesses.

Modelling foreign direct investment in China

This thesis consists of three empirical and one theoretical studies. While China has received an increasing amount of foreign direct investment (FDI) and become the second largest host country for FDI in recent years, the absence of comprehensive studies on FDI inflows into this country drives this research. In the first study, an econometric model is developed to analyse the economic, political, cultural and geographic determinants of both pledged and realised FDI in China. The results of this study suggest that China's relatively cheaper labour force, high degree of international integration with the outside world (represented by its exports and imports) and bilateral exchange rates are the important economic determinants of both pledged FDI and realised FDI in China. The second study analyses the regional distribution of both pledged and realised FDI within China. The econometric properties of the panel data set are examined using a standardised 't-bar' test. The empirical results indicate that provinces with higher level of international trade, lower wage rates, more R&D manpower, more preferential policies and closer ethnic links with overseas Chinese attract relatively more FDI. The third study constructs a dynamic equilibrium model to study the interactions among FDI, knowledge spillovers and long run economic growth in a developing country. The ideas of endogenous product cycles and trade-related international knowledge spillovers are modified and extended to FDI. The major conclusion is that, in the presence of FDI, economic growth is determined by the stock of human capital, the subjective discount rate and knowledge gap, while unskilled labour can not sustain growth. In the fourth study, the role of FDI in the growth process of the Chinese economy is investigated by using a panel of data for 27 provinces across China between 1986 and 1995. In addition to FDI, domestic R&D expenditure, international trade and human capital are added to the standard convergence regressions to control for different structural characteristics in each province. The empirical results support endogenous innovation growth theory in which regional per capita income can converge given technological diffusion, transfer and imitation.

Quantitative risk assessment of groundwater quality utilizing GIS technology and coupled groundwater models

The thesis presents a two-dimensional Risk Assessment Method (RAM) where the assessment of risk to the groundwater resources incorporates both the quantification of the probability of the occurrence of contaminant source terms, as well as the assessment of the resultant impacts. The approach emphasizes the need for a greater dependency on the potential pollution sources, rather than the traditional approach where assessment is based mainly on the intrinsic geo-hydrologic parameters. The risk is calculated using Monte Carlo simulation methods whereby random pollution events were generated to the same distribution as historically occurring events or a priori potential probability distribution. Integrated mathematical models then simulate contaminant concentrations at the predefined monitoring points within the aquifer. The spatial and temporal distributions of the concentrations were calculated from repeated realisations, and the number of times when a user defined concentration magnitude was exceeded is quantified as a risk. The method was setup by integrating MODFLOW-2000, MT3DMS and a FORTRAN coded risk model, and automated, using a DOS batch processing file. GIS software was employed in producing the input files and for the presentation of the results. The functionalities of the method, as well as its sensitivities to the model grid sizes, contaminant loading rates, length of stress periods, and the historical frequencies of occurrence of pollution events were evaluated using hypothetical scenarios and a case study. Chloride-related pollution sources were compiled and used as indicative potential contaminant sources for the case study. At any active model cell, if a random generated number is less than the probability of pollution occurrence, then the risk model will generate synthetic contaminant source term as an input into the transport model. The results of the applications of the method are presented in the form of tables, graphs and spatial maps. Varying the model grid sizes indicates no significant effects on the simulated groundwater head. The simulated frequency of daily occurrence of pollution incidents is also independent of the model dimensions. However, the simulated total contaminant mass generated within the aquifer, and the associated volumetric numerical error appear to increase with the increasing grid sizes. Also, the migration of contaminant plume advances faster with the coarse grid sizes as compared to the finer grid sizes. The number of daily contaminant source terms generated and consequently the total mass of contaminant within the aquifer increases in a non linear proportion to the increasing frequency of occurrence of pollution events. The risk of pollution from a number of sources all occurring by chance together was evaluated, and quantitatively presented as risk maps. This capability to combine the risk to a groundwater feature from numerous potential sources of pollution proved to be a great asset to the method, and a large benefit over the contemporary risk and vulnerability methods.

The design, evaluation and costing of biomass gasifiers

The objective of this study has been to enable a greater understanding of the biomass gasification process through the development and use of process and economic models. A new theoretical equilibrium model of gasification is described using the operating condition called the adiabatic carbon boundary. This represents an ideal gasifier working at the point where the carbon in the feedstock is completely gasified. The model can be used as a `target' against which the results of real gasifiers can be compared, but it does not simulate the results of real gasifiers. A second model has been developed which uses a stagewise approach in order to model fluid bed gasification, and its results have indicated that pyrolysis and the reactions of pyrolysis products play an important part in fluid bed gasifiers. Both models have been used in sensitivity analyses: the biomass moisture content and gasifying agent composition were found to have the largest effects on performance, whilst pressure and heat loss had lesser effects. Correlations have been produced to estimate the total installed capital cost of gasification systems and have been used in an economic model of gasification. This has been used in a sensitivity analysis to determine the factors which most affect the profitability of gasification. The most important influences on gasifier profitability have been found to be feedstock cost, product selling price and throughput. Given the economic conditions of late 1985, refuse gasification for the production of producer gas was found to be viable at throughputs of about 2.5 tonnes/h dry basis and above, in the metropolitan counties of the United Kingdom. At this throughput and above, the largest element of product gas cost is the feedstock cost, the cost element which is most variable.

The Application of Geographic Information Systems to climate change & land evaluation : a study of the effects of climate change upon crop productivity in a sub-tropical environment

This research investigates the contribution that Geographic Information Systems (GIS) can make to the land suitability process used to determine the effects of a climate change scenario. The research is intended to redress the severe under representation of Developing countries within the literature examining the impacts of climatic change upon crop productivity. The methodology adopts some of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) estimates for regional climate variations, based upon General Circulation Model predictions (GCMs) and applies them to a baseline climate for Bangladesh. Utilising the United Nations Food & Agricultural Organisation's Agro-ecological Zones land suitability methodology and crop yield model, the effects of the scenario upon agricultural productivity on 14 crops are determined. A Geographic Information System (IDRISI) is adopted in order to facilitate the methodology, in conjunction with a specially designed spreadsheet, used to determine the yield and suitability rating for each crop. A simple optimisation routine using the GIS is incorporated to provide an indication of the 'maximum theoretical' yield available to the country, should the most calorifically significant crops be cultivated on each land unit both before and after the climate change scenario. This routine will provide an estimate of the theoretical population supporting capacity of the country, both now and in the future, to assist with planning strategies and research. The research evaluates the utility of this alternative GIS based methodology for the land evaluation process and determines the relative changes in crop yields that may result from changes in temperature, photosynthesis and flooding hazard frequency. In summary, the combination of a GIS and a spreadsheet was successful, the yield prediction model indicates that the application of the climate change scenario will have a deleterious effect upon the yields of the study crops. Any yield reductions will have severe implications for agricultural practices. The optimisation routine suggests that the 'theoretical maximum' population supporting capacity is well in excess of current and future population figures. If this agricultural potential could be realised however, it may provide some amelioration from the effects of climate change.

Models and performances of wireless MIMO and cooperative communication systems

Multiple-antenna systems offer significant performance enhancement and will be applied to the next generation broadband wireless communications. This thesis presents the investigations of multiple-antenna systems – multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO) and cooperative communication (CC) – and their performances in more realistic propagation environments than those reported previously. For MIMO systems, the investigations are conducted via theoretical modelling and simulations in a double-scattering environment. The results show that the variations of system performances depend on how scatterer density varies in flat fading channels, and that in frequency-selective fading channels system performances are affected by the length of the coding block as well as scatterer density. In realistic propagation environments, the fading correlation also has an impact on CC systems where the antennas can be further apart than those in MIMO systems. A general stochastic model is applied to studying the effects of fading correlation on the performances of CC systems. This model reflects the asymmetry fact of the wireless channels in a CC system. The results demonstrate the varied effects of fading correlation under different protocols and channel conditions. Performances of CC systems are further studied at the packet level, using both simulations and an experimental testbed. The results obtained have verified various performance trade-offs of the cooperative relaying network (CRN) investigated in different propagation environments. The results suggest that a proper selection of the relaying algorithms and other techniques can meet the requirements of quality of service for different applications.

Pattern recognition analyses of brain activation elicited by happy and neutral faces in unipolar and bipolar depression

Objectives: Recently, pattern recognition approaches have been used to classify patterns of brain activity elicited by sensory or cognitive processes. In the clinical context, these approaches have been mainly applied to classify groups of individuals based on structural magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) data. Only a few studies have applied similar methods to functional MRI (fMRI) data. Methods: We used a novel analytic framework to examine the extent to which unipolar and bipolar depressed individuals differed on discrimination between patterns of neural activity for happy and neutral faces. We used data from 18 currently depressed individuals with bipolar I disorder (BD) and 18 currently depressed individuals with recurrent unipolar depression (UD), matched on depression severity, age, and illness duration, and 18 age- and gender ratio-matched healthy comparison subjects (HC). fMRI data were analyzed using a general linear model and Gaussian process classifiers. Results: The accuracy for discriminating between patterns of neural activity for happy versus neutral faces overall was lower in both patient groups relative to HC. The predictive probabilities for intense and mild happy faces were higher in HC than in BD, and for mild happy faces were higher in HC than UD (all p < 0.001). Interestingly, the predictive probability for intense happy faces was significantly higher in UD than BD (p = 0.03). Conclusions: These results indicate that patterns of whole-brain neural activity to intense happy faces were significantly less distinct from those for neutral faces in BD than in either HC or UD. These findings indicate that pattern recognition approaches can be used to identify abnormal brain activity patterns in patient populations and have promising clinical utility as techniques that can help to discriminate between patients with different psychiatric illnesses.

Body iron is associated with cognitive executive planning function in college women

Evidence of the relationship between altered cognitive function and depleted Fe status is accumulating in women of reproductive age but the degree of Fe deficiency associated with negative neuropsychological outcomes needs to be delineated. Data are limited regarding this relationship in university women in whom optimal cognitive function is critical to academic success. The aim of the present study was to examine the relationship between body Fe, in the absence of Fe-deficiency anaemia, and neuropsychological function in young college women. Healthy, non-Anaemic undergraduate women (n 42) provided a blood sample and completed a standardised cognitive test battery consisting of one manual (Tower of London (TOL), a measure of central executive function) and five computerised (Bakan vigilance task, mental rotation, simple reaction time, immediate word recall and two-finger tapping) tasks. Women's body Fe ranged from - 4·2 to 8·1 mg/kg. General linear model ANOVA revealed a significant effect of body Fe on TOL planning time (P= 0.002). Spearman's correlation coefficients showed a significant inverse relationship between body Fe and TOL planning time for move categories 4 (r - 0.39, P= 0.01) and 5 (r - 0.47, P= 0.002). Performance on the computerised cognitive tasks was not affected by body Fe level. These findings suggest that Fe status in the absence of anaemia is positively associated with central executive function in otherwise healthy college women. Copyright © The Authors 2012.

Where do bright ideas occur in our brain? Meta-analytic evidence from neuroimaging studies of domain-specific creativity

Many studies have assessed the neural underpinnings of creativity, failing to find a clear anatomical localization. We aimed to provide evidence for a multi-componential neural system for creativity. We applied a general activation likelihood estimation (ALE) meta-analysis to 45 fMRI studies. Three individual ALE analyses were performed to assess creativity in different cognitive domains (Musical, Verbal, and Visuo-spatial). The general ALE revealed that creativity relies on clusters of activations in the bilateral occipital, parietal, frontal, and temporal lobes. The individual ALE revealed different maximal activation in different domains. Musical creativity yields activations in the bilateral medial frontal gyrus, in the left cingulate gyrus, middle frontal gyrus, and inferior parietal lobule and in the right postcentral and fusiform gyri. Verbal creativity yields activations mainly located in the left hemisphere, in the prefrontal cortex, middle and superior temporal gyri, inferior parietal lobule, postcentral and supramarginal gyri, middle occipital gyrus, and insula. The right inferior frontal gyrus and the lingual gyrus were also activated. Visuo-spatial creativity activates the right middle and inferior frontal gyri, the bilateral thalamus and the left precentral gyrus. This evidence suggests that creativity relies on multi-componential neural networks and that different creativity domains depend on different brain regions.