An illustration of variable precision rough sets model:an analysis of the findings of the UK Monopolies and Mergers Commission

This paper introduces a new technique in the investigation of limited-dependent variable models. This paper illustrates that variable precision rough set theory (VPRS), allied with the use of a modern method of classification, or discretisation of data, can out-perform the more standard approaches that are employed in economics, such as a probit model. These approaches and certain inductive decision tree methods are compared (through a Monte Carlo simulation approach) in the analysis of the decisions reached by the UK Monopolies and Mergers Committee. We show that, particularly in small samples, the VPRS model can improve on more traditional models, both in-sample, and particularly in out-of-sample prediction. A similar improvement in out-of-sample prediction over the decision tree methods is also shown.

Task-based image annotation and retrieval

In order to address problems of information overload in digital imagery task domains we have developed an interactive approach to the capture and reuse of image context information. Our framework models different aspects of the relationship between images and domain tasks they support by monitoring the interactive manipulation and annotation of task-relevant imagery. The approach allows us to gauge a measure of a user's intentions as they complete goal-directed image tasks. As users analyze retrieved imagery their interactions are captured and an expert task context is dynamically constructed. This human expertise, proficiency, and knowledge can then be leveraged to support other users in carrying out similar domain tasks. We have applied our techniques to two multimedia retrieval applications for two different image domains, namely the geo-spatial and medical imagery domains. © Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2007.

Dynamics of learning with restricted training sets

The dynamics of supervised learning in layered neural networks were studied in the regime where the size of the training set is proportional to the number of inputs. The evolution of macroscopic observables, including the two relevant performance measures can be predicted by using the dynamical replica theory. Three approximation schemes aimed at eliminating the need to solve a functional saddle-point equation at each time step have been derived.

Noise, regularizers, and unrealizable scenarios in online learning from restricted training sets

We study the dynamics of on-line learning in multilayer neural networks where training examples are sampled with repetition and where the number of examples scales with the number of network weights. The analysis is carried out using the dynamical replica method aimed at obtaining a closed set of coupled equations for a set of macroscopic variables from which both training and generalization errors can be calculated. We focus on scenarios whereby training examples are corrupted by additive Gaussian output noise and regularizers are introduced to improve the network performance. The dependence of the dynamics on the noise level, with and without regularizers, is examined, as well as that of the asymptotic values obtained for both training and generalization errors. We also demonstrate the ability of the method to approximate the learning dynamics in structurally unrealizable scenarios. The theoretical results show good agreement with those obtained by computer simulations.

Noise and the trading mechanism:the case of SETS

On 20 October 1997 the London Stock Exchange introduced a new trading system called SETS. This system was to replace the dealer system SEAQ, which had been in operation since 1986. Using the iterative sum of squares test introduced by Inclan and Tiao (1994), we investigate whether there was a change in the unconditional variance of opening and closing returns, at the time SETS was introduced. We show that for the FTSE-100 stocks traded on SETS, on the days following its introduction, there was a widespread increase in the volatility of both opening and closing returns. However, no synchronous volatility changes were found to be associated with the FTSE-100 index or FTSE-250 stocks. We conclude therefore that the introduction of the SETS trading mechanism caused an increase in noise at the time the system was introduced.

Corpus, collocation, and lexical sets

This paper is a progress report on a research path I first outlined in my contribution to “Words in Context: A Tribute to John Sinclair on his Retirement” (Heffer and Sauntson, 2000). Therefore, I first summarize that paper here, in order to provide the relevant background. The second half of the current paper consists of some further manual analyses, exploring various parameters and procedures that might assist in the design of an automated computational process for the identification of lexical sets. The automation itself is beyond the scope of the current paper.

Sequential, Bayesian geostatistics:a principled method for large data sets

The principled statistical application of Gaussian random field models used in geostatistics has historically been limited to data sets of a small size. This limitation is imposed by the requirement to store and invert the covariance matrix of all the samples to obtain a predictive distribution at unsampled locations, or to use likelihood-based covariance estimation. Various ad hoc approaches to solve this problem have been adopted, such as selecting a neighborhood region and/or a small number of observations to use in the kriging process, but these have no sound theoretical basis and it is unclear what information is being lost. In this article, we present a Bayesian method for estimating the posterior mean and covariance structures of a Gaussian random field using a sequential estimation algorithm. By imposing sparsity in a well-defined framework, the algorithm retains a subset of “basis vectors” that best represent the “true” posterior Gaussian random field model in the relative entropy sense. This allows a principled treatment of Gaussian random field models on very large data sets. The method is particularly appropriate when the Gaussian random field model is regarded as a latent variable model, which may be nonlinearly related to the observations. We show the application of the sequential, sparse Bayesian estimation in Gaussian random field models and discuss its merits and drawbacks.

Projected sequential Gaussian processes: flexible interpolation for large data sets

Recently within the machine learning and spatial statistics communities many papers have explored the potential of reduced rank representations of the covariance matrix, often referred to as projected or fixed rank approaches. In such methods the covariance function of the posterior process is represented by a reduced rank approximation which is chosen such that there is minimal information loss. In this paper a sequential framework for inference in such projected processes is presented, where the observations are considered one at a time. We introduce a C++ library for carrying out such projected, sequential estimation which adds several novel features. In particular we have incorporated the ability to use a generic observation operator, or sensor model, to permit data fusion. We can also cope with a range of observation error characteristics, including non-Gaussian observation errors. Inference for the variogram parameters is based on maximum likelihood estimation. We illustrate the projected sequential method in application to synthetic and real data sets. We discuss the software implementation and suggest possible future extensions.

Rough-terrain groundspeed measurement:a radar-based commercial solution

Off-highway motive plant equipment is costly in capital outlay and maintenance. To reduce these overheads and increase site safety and workrate, a technique of assessing and limiting the velocity of such equipment is required. Due to the extreme environmental conditions met on such sites, conventional velocity measurement techniques are inappropriate. Ogden Electronics Limited were formed specifically to manufacture a motive plant safety system incorporating a speed sensor and sanction unit; to date, the only such commercial unit available. However, problems plague the reliability, accuracy and mass production of this unit. This project assesses the company's exisiting product, and in conjunction with an appreciation of the company history and structure, concludes that this unit is unsuited to its intended application. Means of improving the measurement accuracy and longevity of this unit, commensurate with the company's limited resources and experience, are proposed, both for immediate retrofit and for longer term use. This information is presented in the form of a number of internal reports for the company. The off-highway environment is examined; and in conjunction with an evaluation of means of obtaining a returned signal, comparisons of processing techniques, and on-site gathering of previously unavailable data, preliminary designs for an alternative product are drafted. Theoretical aspects are covered by a literature review of ground-pointing radar, vehicular radar, and velocity measuring systems. This review establishes and collates the body of knowledge in areas previously considered unrelated. Based upon this work, a new design is proposed which is suitable for incorporation into the existing company product range. Following production engineering of the design, five units were constructed, tested and evaluated on-site. After extended field trials, this design has shown itself to possess greater accuracy, reliability and versatility than the existing sensor, at a lower unit cost.

Design concept evaluation based on rough number and information entropy theory

Concept evaluation at the early phase of product development plays a crucial role in new product development. It determines the direction of the subsequent design activities. However, the evaluation information at this stage mainly comes from experts' judgments, which is subjective and imprecise. How to manage the subjectivity to reduce the evaluation bias is a big challenge in design concept evaluation. This paper proposes a comprehensive evaluation method which combines information entropy theory and rough number. Rough number is first presented to aggregate individual judgments and priorities and to manipulate the vagueness under a group decision-making environment. A rough number based information entropy method is proposed to determine the relative weights of evaluation criteria. The composite performance values based on rough number are then calculated to rank the candidate design concepts. The results from a practical case study on the concept evaluation of an industrial robot design show that the integrated evaluation model can effectively strengthen the objectivity across the decision-making processes.