Mean reversion in the short horizon returns of UK portfolios

This paper will show that short horizon stock returns for UK portfolios are more predictable than suggested by sample autocorrelation co-efficients. Four capitalisation based portfolios are constructed for the period 1976–1991. It is shown that the first order autocorrelation coefficient of monthly returns can explain no more than 10% of the variation in monthly portfolio returns. Monthly autocorrelation coefficients assume that each weekly return of the previous month contains the same amount of information. However, this will not be the case if short horizon returns contain predictable components which dissipate rapidly. In this case, the return of the most recent week would say a lot more about the future monthly portfolio return than other weeks. This suggests that when predicting future monthly portfolio returns more weight should be given to the most recent weeks of the previous month, because, the most recent weekly returns provide the most information about the subsequent months' performance. We construct a model which exploits the mean reverting characteristics of monthly portfolio returns. Using this model we forecast future monthly portfolio returns. When compared to forecasts that utilise the autocorrelation statistic the model which exploits the mean reverting characteristics of monthlyportfolio returns can forecast future returns better than the autocorrelation statistic, both in and out of sample.

A spirochete isolated from a case of severe virulent ovine foot disease is closely related to a Treponeme isolated from human periodontitis and bovine digital dermatitis

The isolation of spirochetes from severe ovine foot disease has been reported recently by our research group. In this study we describe the preliminary classification of this spirochete based on nucleotide sequence analysis of the PCR-amplified 16S rRNA gene. Phylogenetic analysis of this sequence in comparison with other previously reported 16S rRNA gene sequences showed that the spirochete belonged to the treponemal phylotype Treponema vincentii which has been associated with bovine digital dermatitis and human periodontal disease. Further work is required to define the common virulence determinants of these closely related treponemes in the aetiology of these tissue destructive diseases.

The variant rpoS allele of S. enteritidis strain 27655R does not affect virulence in a chick model nor constitutive curliation but does generate a cold-sensitive phenotype

Adherence of pathogenic Escherichia coli and Salmonella spp. to host cells is in part mediated by curli fimbriae which, along with other virulence determinants, are positively regulated by RpoS. Interested in the role and regulation of curli (SEF17) fimbriae of Salmonella enteritidis in poultry infection, we tested the virulence of naturally occurring S. enteritidis PT4 strains 27655R and 27655S which displayed constitutive and null expression of curli (SEF17) fimbriae, respectively, in a chick invasion assay and analysed their rpoS alleles. Both strains were shown to be equally invasive and as invasive as a wild-type phage type 4 strain and an isogenic derivative defective for the elaboration of curli. We showed that the rpoS allele of 27655S was intact even though this strain was non-curliated and we confirmed that a S. enteritidis rpoS::strr null mutant was unable to express curli, as anticipated. Strain 27655R, constitutively curliated, possessed a frameshift mutation at position 697 of the rpoS coding sequence which resulted in a truncated product and remained curliated even when transduced to rpoS::strr. Additionally, rpoS mutants are known to be cold-sensitive, a phenotype confirmed for strain 27655R. Collectively, these data indicated that curliation was not a significant factor for pathogenesis of S. enteritidis in this model and that curliation of strains 27655R and 27655S was independent of RpoS. Significantly, strain 27655R possessed a defective rpoS allele and remained virulent. Here was evidence that supported the concept that different naturally occurring rpoS alleles may generate varying virulence phenotypic traits.

Spray dried combinations of lactoferrin with antibiotics appear superior to monotherapy for reducing biofilm formation by pseudomonas aeruginosa

SD Apo Lactoferrin-Tobramycin/Gentamicin Combinations are superior to monotherapy in the eradication of Pseudomonas aeruginosa Biofilm in the lungs Wilson Oguejiofor1, Lindsay J. Marshall1, Andrew J. Ingham1, Robert Price2, Jag. Shur2 1School of Life and Health Sciences, Aston University, Birmingham, UK. 2School of Pharmacy and Pharmacology, University of Bath, Bath, UK. KEYWORDS: lactoferrin, apo lactoferrin, spray drying, biofilm, cystic fibrosis Introduction Chronic lung infections from the opportunistic pathogeen Pseudomonas aeruginosa has been recognised as a major contributor to the incidences of high morbidity and mortality amongst cystic fibrosis (CF) patients (1,2). Currently, strategies for managing lung infections in CF patients involves the aggressive use of aerosolised antibiotics (3), however, increasing evidence suggests that the biofilm component of P. aeruginosa in the lower airway remains unperturbed and is associated with the development of antibiotic resistance. If this is so then, there is an urgent need to suitably adjust the current treatment strategy so that it includes compounds that prevent biofilm formation or disrupt established biofilms. It is well understood that biofilm formation is strongly dependent on iron (Fe3+) availability (4), therefore aerosolised anti-infective formulations which has the ability to chelate iron may essentially be a well suited therapy for eliminating P. aeruginosa biofilms on CF airway epithelial cells (5). In this study, we report the use of combination therapy; an aminoglycosides (tobramycin and gentamicin) and an antimicrobial peptide (lactoferrin) to significantly deplete P. aeruginosa biofilms. We demonstrate that lactoferrin-tobramycin and lactoferrin-gentamicin combinations are superior to the single antibiotic regime currently being employed to combat P. aeruginosa biofilms. MATERIALS AND METHOD Antibiotics: The antibiotics used in this study included gentamicin and tobramycin supplied by Fagron, UK. Bacterial strain and growth conditions: Pseudomonas aeruginosa strain PAO1 was provided by Prof. Peter Lambert of Aston University, Birmingham UK. The Strains were routinely grown from storage in a medium supplemented with magnesium chloride, glucose and casamino acids. Dialysis of lactoferrin: Apo lactoferrin was prepared by dialyzing a suspension of lactoferrin for 24 hrs at 4 °C against 20 mmol/L sodium dihydrogen phosphate, 20 mmol/L sodium acetate and 40 mmol/L EDTA (pH 3.5). Ferric ion (Fe3+) removal was verified by atomic absorption spectroscopy measurements. Spray drying of combinations of lactoferrin and apo lactoferrin with the different aminoglycosides: Combinations of tobramycin and gentamicin with the different preparations of lactoferrin were spray dried (SD) as a 2% (w/v) aqueous suspension. The spray drying parameters utilized for the production of suitable micron-sized particles includes: Inlet temperature, 180°C, spray flow rate, 606 L/hr; pump setting, 10%; aspirator setting, 85% (34m3/hr) to produce various outlet temperatures ranging from 99 - 106°C. Viability assay: To test the bactericidal activity of the various combinations, a viability assay was performed as previously described by Xu, Xiong et al. (6) with some modifications. Briefly, 10µL of ~ c. 6.6 x 107 CFU mL-1 P. aeruginosa strain PAO1 suspension were incubated (37°C, 60 mins) with 90 µL of a 2 µg/mL concentration of the various combinations and sampled every 10 mins. After incubation, the cells were diluted in deionised water and plated in Mueller hinton agar plates. Following 24 h incubation of the plates at 37°C, the percentage of viable cells was determined relative to incubation without added antibiotics. Biofilm assay: To test the susceptibility of the P. aeruginosa strain to various antibiotics in the biofilms mode of growth, overnight cultures of P. aeruginosa were diluted 1:100 into fresh medium supplemented with magnesium chloride, glucose and casamino acids. Aliquots of the dilution were dispensed into a 96 well dish and incubated (37°C, 24 h). Excess broth was removed and the number of colony forming units per milliliter (CFU/mL) of the planktonic bacteria was quantified. The biofilms were then washed and stained with 0.1% (w/v) crystal violet for 15 mins at room temperature. Following vigorous washing with water, the stained biofilms were solubilized in 30% acetic acid and the absorbance at 550nm of a 125 µL aliquot was determined in a microplate reader (Multiskan spectrum, Thermo Scientific) using 30% acetic acid in water as the blank. Aliquots of the broth prior to staining were used as an indicator of the level of planktonic growth. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION Following spray drying, the mean yield, volume weighted mean diameter and moisture content of lactoferrin powder were measured and were as follows (Table 1 and table 2); Table 1: Spray drying parameters FormulationInlet temp (°C)Outlet temp (°C)Airflow rate (L/hr)Mean yield (%)Moisture content (%) SD Lactoferrin18099 - 10060645.2 ±2.75.9 ±0.4 SD Apo Lactoferrin180100 - 10260657.8 ±1.85.7 ±0.2 Tobramycin180102 - 10460682.1 ±2.23.2 ±0.4 Lactoferrin + Tobramycin180104 - 10660687.5 ±1.43.7 ±0.2 Apo Lactoferrin + Tobramycin180103 - 10460676.3 ±2.43.3 ±0.5 Gentamicin18099 - 10260685.4 ±1.34.0 ±0.2 Lactoferrin + Gentamicin180102 - 10460687.3 ±2.13.9 ±0.3 Apo Lactoferrin + Gentamicin18099 -10360680.1±1.93.4 ±0.4 Table 2: Particle size distribution d10 d50d90 SD Lactoferrin1.384.9111.08 SD Apo Lactoferrin1.284.7911.04 SD Tobramycin1.254.9011.29 SD Lactoferrin + Tobramycin1.175.2715.23 SD Apo Lactoferrin + Tobramycin1.115.0614.31 SD Gentamicin1.406.0614.38 SD Lactoferrin + Gentamicin1.476.2314.41 SD Apo Lactoferrin + Gentamicin1.465.1511.53 The bactericidal activity of the various combinations were tested against P. aeruginosa PAO1 following a 60 minute incubation period (Figure 1 and Figure 2). While 2 µg/mL of a 1:1 combination of spray dried apo lactoferrin and Gentamicin was able to completely kill all bacterial cells within 40 mins, the same concentration was not as effective for the other antibiotic combinations. However, there was an overall reduction of bacterial cells by over 3 log units by the other combinations within 60 mins. Figure 1: Logarithmic plot of bacterial cell viability of various combinations of tobramycin and lactoferrin preparations at 2µg/mL (n = 3). Figure 2: Logarithmic plot of bacterial cell viability of various combinations of gentamicin and lactoferrin preparations at 2µg/mL (n = 3). Crystal violet staining showed that biofilm formation by P. aeruginosa PAO1 was significantly (ANOVA, p < 0.05) inhibited in the presence of the different lactoferrin preparations. Interestingly, apo lactoferrin and spray dried lactoferrin exhibited greater inhibition of both biofilm formation and biofilm persistence (Figure 2). Figure 2: Crystal violet staining of residual biofilms of P. aeruginosa following a 24hr incubation with the various combinations of antibiotics and an exposure to 48 hr formed biofilms. CONCLUSION In conclusion, combination therapy comprising of an antimicrobial peptide (lactoferrin) and an aminoglycosides (tobramycin or gentamicin) provides a feasible and alternative approach to monotherapy since the various combinations are more efficient than the respective monotherapy in the eradication of both planktonic and biofilms of P. aeruginosa. ACKNOWLEDGEMENT The authors would like to thank Mr. John Swarbrick and Friesland Campina for their generous donation of the Lactoferrin. REFERENCES 1.Hassett, D.J., Sutton, M.D., Schurr, M.J., Herr, A.B., Caldwell, C.C. and Matu, J.O. (2009), "Pseudomonas aeruginosa hypoxic or anaerobic biofilm infections within cystic fibrosis airways". Trends in Microbiology, 17, 130-138. 2.Trust, C.F. (2009), "Antibiotic treatment for cystic fibrosis". Report of the UK Cystic Fibrosis Trust Antibiotic Working Group. Consensus document. London: Cystic Fibrosis Trust. 3.Garcia-Contreras, L. and Hickey, A.J. (2002), "Pharmaceutical and biotechnological aerosols for cystic fibrosis therapy". Advanced Drug Delivery Reviews, 54, 1491-1504. 4.O'May, C.Y., Sanderson, K., Roddam, L.F., Kirov, S.M. and Reid, D.W. (2009), "Iron-binding compounds impair Pseudomonas aeruginosa biofilm formation, especially under anaerobic conditions". J Med Microbiol, 58, 765-773. 5.Reid, D.W., Carroll, V., O'May, C., Champion, A. and Kirov, S.M. (2007), "Increased airway iron as a potential factor in the persistence of Pseudomonas aeruginosa infection in cystic fibrosis". European Respiratory Journal, 30, 286-292. 6.Xu, G., Xiong, W., Hu, Q., Zuo, P., Shao, B., Lan, F., Lu, X., Xu, Y. and Xiong, S. (2010), "Lactoferrin-derived peptides and Lactoferricin chimera inhibit virulence factor production and biofilm formation in Pseudomonas aeruginosa". 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