Exploiting uncertainty in nonlinear stochastic control problem

This work introduces a novel inversion-based neurocontroller for solving control problems involving uncertain nonlinear systems which could also compensate for multi-valued systems. The approach uses recent developments in neural networks, especially in the context of modelling statistical distributions, which are applied to forward and inverse plant models. Provided that certain conditions are met, an estimate of the intrinsic uncertainty for the outputs of neural networks can be obtained using the statistical properties of networks. More generally, multicomponent distributions can be modelled by the mixture density network. Based on importance sampling from these distributions a novel robust inverse control approach is obtained. This importance sampling provides a structured and principled approach to constrain the complexity of the search space for the ideal control law. The developed methodology circumvents the dynamic programming problem by using the predicted neural network uncertainty to localise the possible control solutions to consider. Convergence of the output error for the proposed control method is verified by using a Lyapunov function. Several simulation examples are provided to demonstrate the efficiency of the developed control method. The manner in which such a method is extended to nonlinear multi-variable systems with different delays between the input-output pairs is considered and demonstrated through simulation examples.

Probability distribution modelling to improve stability in nonlinear MIMO control

We consider the direct adaptive inverse control of nonlinear multivariable systems with different delays between every input-output pair. In direct adaptive inverse control, the inverse mapping is learned from examples of input-output pairs. This makes the obtained controller sub optimal, since the network may have to learn the response of the plant over a larger operational range than necessary. Moreover, in certain applications, the control problem can be redundant, implying that the inverse problem is ill posed. In this paper we propose a new algorithm which allows estimating and exploiting uncertainty in nonlinear multivariable control systems. This approach allows us to model strongly non-Gaussian distribution of control signals as well as processes with hysteresis. The proposed algorithm circumvents the dynamic programming problem by using the predicted neural network uncertainty to localise the possible control solutions to consider.

Disentangle contextual and permanent individual motivations:an application to shopping behavior

Past studies resulted in conflicting definitions of consumer motivation. On the one hand, motivations are seen as the consumer’s characteristics that shape her general behavior (motivational trait). On the other hand, they are seen as contextual variables representing the reason why the individual is behaving specific to today’s context (motivational state). The objective of this research is to stress the difference between these two concepts and to understand the impact of each on consumer behavior. We applied our empirical study to shopping motivations; our results show a strong interaction between motivational trait and motivational state. Problem and Hypothesis On the one hand, Westbrook and Black (1985) consider shopping motivations as individual permanent characteristics. This concept is shared by other researchers (Rohm and Swaminathan 2004), which show that some shoppers are functional (they shop for convenience, information seeking, and time saving) while some others are hedonic (they shop for social interaction, bargain hunting and browsing). On the other hand, Kaltcheva and Weitz (2006) define motivations as a contextual orientation changing over time, depending on the situation, and show that contextual shopping motivations have a strong impact on shopping behavior. From our knowledge, no research specifically examined the respective impact of both these shopping motivation types. To deal with this issue, we used the notions of “traits” and “states” that have been largely used in marketing research to designate respectively a permanent characteristic of the individual and a temporary orientation of the consumer (Mowen 2000). The reversal theory (Apter 2001) suggests that two opposite states exist: the telic and the paratelic states. In the telic state, individuals set goals for themselves, must be disciplined to reach these goals, and do not behave in accordance with their personal trait. In the paratelic state, individuals are seeking arousal and enjoyment, do not set rules, and one could postulate that they act in accordance with their natural tendencies. Based on these considerations, we hypothesize the following process: in situations involving paratelic states, hedonic as well as functional individuals should behave according to their natural traits, whereas in situations involving telic states, hedonic people should inhibit their natural propensity to enjoy shopping and behave similarly to functional people. Hence, we postulate the following: Hypothesis: Compared to shoppers with functional motivational trait, shoppers with hedonic motivational trait will a) significantly display more hedonic shopping behavior intentions in a condition of paratelic motivational state, and b) not display more hedonic shopping behavior intentions in a condition a telic motivational state Empirical Research First, 108 participants were asked to fill a multi-items scale about their shopping habits, which actually measured their shopping motivational traits. This questionnaire allowed us to highlight four different dimensions in shopping motivational traits: social interaction, novelty/utility seeking, bargain hunting, and browsing. According to their scores on different items, participants were classified as functional or as hedonic on each of these four dimensions (a single individual may be hedonic on some dimensions and functional on others). Then, participants were then induced to adopt either a telic or a paratelic shopping motivational state while reading an appropriate scenario. Finally, participants were asked for their shopping behavior intentions in response to the shopping context. Four items were developed, corresponding to the four shopping motivational trait dimensions we found with our factor analysis. Results As we found four dimensions in shopping motivational trait, we set up four quasi-experimental designs to capture the entire phenomenon: for each dimension, a 2 (motivational trait) x 2 (motivational state) design was built, where the dependant variable was the shopping behavior element corresponding to the studied dimension. Four 2 x 2 Anovas were performed to assess the interaction between motivational trait and motivational state. Concerning the three dimensions - browsing, novelty/utility seeking, and bargain hunting- , in the paratelic state scenario participants with hedonic motivational trait displayed significantly more hedonic shopping behavior intentions than participants with a functional motivational trait (resp. F = 9.701, p = .003; F = 4.979, p = .03; F = 5.757, p = .02); and in the telic state scenario, there was no significant difference in behavior intentions between participants with hedonic or functional motivation trait. Each time, the interaction effect between motivational state and motivational trait was significant (resp. F = 4.859, p = .03; F = 3.314, p = .07; F = 2.98, p = .08). Concerning the fourth dimension, social interaction, shopping behavior intentions of participants with hedonic and with functional motivational traits were significantly different in the paratelic state scenario (F = 29.898, p <.000) as well as in the telic state scenario (F = 9.559, p = .003). However, the interaction effect showed that this behavioral difference was significantly stronger in the paratelic scenario. All these results support our research hypothesis. Discussion and Implications Our study provides consistent support for our hypotheses saying that there is an interaction effect between shopping motivational states and shopping motivational traits. The generalization of the results is strengthened by the study of four different shopping traits: social interaction, novelty/utility seeking, bargain hunting and browsing. As we proposed, when shopping in a goal-oriented state (telic state), behaviors of hedonic and functional shoppers do not differ significantly. Conversely, when shopping for a recreational reason (paratelic state), hedonic and functional shoppers behave significantly different. These results could explain why some previous studies concluded that shopping motivational traits had no impact on shopping behavior: they did not take into consideration the interaction between motivational trait and motivational state. Moreover, our study shows that marketing surveys performed by store managers to draw the personal profile of their customers must be crossed with contextual motivations in order to accurately forecast shopper behavior. Future Developments Our results can be explained by the self-control process, which pushes hedonic-trait shoppers to behave in a rather functional way in utilitarian situations. However, to be certain that this is the very process that occurs, we plan to add self-control perception scales to our existing measures. This is obviously the next step of this research.

Design and evaluation of a framework for cooperative and adaptive QoS control of DSRC network for road safety applications

Dedicated short-range communications (DSRC) are a promising vehicle communication technique for collaborative road safety applications (CSA). However, road safety applications require highly reliable and timely wireless communications, which present big challenges to DSRC based vehicle networks on effective and robust quality of services (QoS) provisioning due to the random channel access method applied in the DSRC technique. In this paper we examine the QoS control problem for CSA in the DSRC based vehicle networks and presented an overview of the research work towards the QoS control problem. After an analysis of the system application requirements and the DSRC vehicle network features, we propose a framework for cooperative and adaptive QoS control, which is believed to be a key for the success of DSRC on supporting effective collaborative road safety applications. A core design in the proposed QoS control framework is that network feedback and cross-layer design are employed to collaboratively achieve targeted QoS. A design example of cooperative and adaptive rate control scheme is implemented and evaluated, with objective of illustrating the key ideas in the framework. Simulation results demonstrate the effectiveness of proposed rate control schemes in providing highly available and reliable channel for emergency safety messages. © 2013 Wenyang Guan et al.

Stochastic control strategies and adaptive critic methods

Adaptive critic methods have common roots as generalizations of dynamic programming for neural reinforcement learning approaches. Since they approximate the dynamic programming solutions, they are potentially suitable for learning in noisy, nonlinear and nonstationary environments. In this study, a novel probabilistic dual heuristic programming (DHP) based adaptive critic controller is proposed. Distinct to current approaches, the proposed probabilistic (DHP) adaptive critic method takes uncertainties of forward model and inverse controller into consideration. Therefore, it is suitable for deterministic and stochastic control problems characterized by functional uncertainty. Theoretical development of the proposed method is validated by analytically evaluating the correct value of the cost function which satisfies the Bellman equation in a linear quadratic control problem. The target value of the critic network is then calculated and shown to be equal to the analytically derived correct value.

Performance of small and medium enterprises and the impact of environmental variables: evidence from Vietnam

thesis is developed from a real life application of performance evaluation of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in Vietnam. The thesis presents two main methodological developments on evaluation of dichotomous environment variable impacts on technical efficiency. Taking into account the selection bias the thesis proposes a revised frontier separation approach for the seminal Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) model which was developed by Charnes, Cooper, and Rhodes (1981). The revised frontier separation approach is based on a nearest neighbour propensity score matching pairing treated SMEs with their counterfactuals on the propensity score. The thesis develops order-m frontier conditioning on propensity score from the conditional order-m approach proposed by Cazals, Florens, and Simar (2002), advocated by Daraio and Simar (2005). By this development, the thesis allows the application of the conditional order-m approach with a dichotomous environment variable taking into account the existence of the self-selection problem of impact evaluation. Monte Carlo style simulations have been built to examine the effectiveness of the aforementioned developments. Methodological developments of the thesis are applied in empirical studies to evaluate the impact of training programmes on the performance of food processing SMEs and the impact of exporting on technical efficiency of textile and garment SMEs of Vietnam. The analysis shows that training programmes have no significant impact on the technical efficiency of food processing SMEs. Moreover, the analysis confirms the conclusion of the export literature that exporters are self selected into the sector. The thesis finds no significant impact from exporting activities on technical efficiency of textile and garment SMEs. However, large bias has been eliminated by the proposed approach. Results of empirical studies contribute to the understanding of the impact of different environmental variables on the performance of SMEs. It helps policy makers to design proper policy supporting the development of Vietnamese SMEs.

Do tinted spectacle lens wearers have a different personality?

The wearing of tinted spectacle lenses is considered by some health care workers to be a marker of psychopathology or a hypochondriacal personality type. The purpose of this study was to determine whether there is a relationship between the wearing of tinted spectacle lenses and personality type in physically healthy subjects. The Sixteen Personality Factor Questionnaire 5th Edition, a multidimensional standardized self-report inventory, was used to determine the personality type of 98 participants. Twenty currently wore tinted spectacle lenses for reasons other than ocular disease, sun protection, outdoor or indoor glare reduction, pattern sensitive epilepsy, migraines, reading difficulties or fashion. The remainder did not wear tinted spectacle lenses for any purpose other than sun protection. Tinted lens wear and no tinted lens wear groups were age and gender matched. There was no statistically significant difference in five global personality factors between the no-tint and tint groups: extraversion (p = 0.31), anxiety (p = 0.75), tough-mindedness (p = 0.96), independence (p = 0.63), and self-control (p = 0.87). This suggests that the use of tinted lenses by physically healthy people is unlikely to be an indicator of personality type. © 2007 The Author.

Nations and organizations:a comparative study of English and Indian work-related attitudes and values in matched manufacturing firms

This thesis reports a cross-national study carried out in England and India in an attempt to clarify the association of certain cultural and non-cultural characteristics with people's work-related attitudes and values, and with the structure of their work organizations. Three perspectives are considered to be relevant to the objectives of the study. The contingency perspective suggests that a 'fit' between an organization's context and its structural arrangements will be fundamentally necessary for achieving success and survival. The political economy perspective argues for the determining role of the social and economic structures within which the organization operates. The culturalist perspective looks to cultural attitudes and values of organizational members for an explanation for their organization's structure. The empirical investigation was carried out in three stages in each of the two countries involved by means of surveys of cultural attitudes, work-related attitudes and organizational structures and systems. The cultural surveys suggested that Indian and English people were different from one another with regard to fear of, and respect and obedience to, their seniors, ability to cope with ambiguity, honesty, independence, expression of emotions, fatalism, reserve, and care for others; they were similar with regard to tolerance, friendliness, attitude to change, attitude to law, self-control and self-confidence, and attitude to social differentiation. The second stage of the study, involving the employees of fourteen organizations, found that the English ones perceived themselves to have more power at work, expressed more tolerance for ambiguity, and had different expectations from their job than did the Indian equivalents. The two samples were similar with respect to commitment to their company and trust in their colleagues. The findings also suggested that employees' occupations, education and age had some influences on their work-related attitudes. The final stage of the research was a study of structures, control systems, and reward and punishment policies of the same fourteen organizations which were matched almost completely on their contextual factors across the two countries. English and Indian organizations were found to be similar in terms of centralization, specialization, chief executive's span of control, height and management control strategies. English organizations, however, were far more formalized, spent more time on consultation and their managers delegated authority lower down the hierarchy than Indian organizations. The major finding of the study was the multiple association that cultural, national and contingency factors had with the structural characteristics of the organizations and with the work-related attitudes of their members. On the basis of this finding, a multi-perspective model for understanding organizational structures and systems is proposed in which the contributions made by contingency, political economy and cultural perspectives are recognized and incorporated.

Editorial : which weight loss diet?

Full editorial: A recent study evaluating the long-term (2 yr) weight reducing efficacy of different types of diets – high or low in carbohydrates (CHOs), protein or fat - confirmed that it is calorie deficit not dietary composition that determines the loss and maintenance of body weight.1 Is there any advantage in following a specific weight loss diet? Short-term use of nutritionally complete commercially available (very) low calorie diets has benefited people with diabetes when  supported by education programmes.2 Initial weight loss has been encouraging with some fad diets eg the Atkins and the South Beach diets, but these diets are difficult to maintain and there are safety issues regarding their short- and long-term use – especially in people with diabetes.3 The types of macronutrients consumed can have a considerable impact on glycaemic control and energy metabolism. Although a low CHO diet additionally enhances initial weight loss by reducing cellular water content, if fat is not proportionally reduced the diet may not benefit the lipid profile for vascular disease risk. High fat and high protein diets – which are simultaneously low in CHOs – increase vulnerability to hypoglycaemia in people taking insulin secretagogues or on insulin therapy, and may promote excess fat metabolism and ketogenesis, particularly in people vulnerable to lack of insulin. Very low protein diets are not recommended as lean body mass tends to be reduced in diabetes. Altering the macronutrient balance has implications for the micronutrient mix: deficiencies are higher if more foods are excluded and conversely specific micronutrient excess can occur with some fad diets. The altered nutrient mix affects intestinal fauna and flora, and gut motility and glycaemic control are influenced by the quantity and type of fibre consumed. Support programmes help individuals achieve long term weight loss and there is mounting evidence that community schemes which educate and promote lifestyle changes may stem the rising tide of obesity and consequent type 2 diabetes.4 Consuming smaller portions of a balanced diet (and adjusting antidiabetic medications accordingly) will create an energy deficit to promote healthy weight loss. Increased movement/exercise will enhance this energy deficit. Knowledge (eg 1g fat has 2.25 times more energy than 1g CHO) allows sensible food choices and compensation for inclusion of small volumes of  ‘naughty but nice’ foods. Ultimately weight control requires self control. References 1. Sacks FM, Bray GA, Carey VJ et al. Comparison of weight-loss diets with different compositions of fat, protein, and carbohydrates. N Engl J Med 2009;360:859–73. 2. Bennett P. Obesity, diabetes and VLCD. Br J Diabetes Vasc Dis 2004;4:328–30. 3. Baldwin EJ. Fad diets in diabetes. Br J Diabetes Vasc DIs 2004;4:333–7. 4. Romon M, Lommoz A, Tafflet M et al. Downward trends in the prevalence of childhood overweight in the setting of 12-year school- and community-based programmes. Public Health Nutr 2008; Dec 28, 1–8 [Epub ahead of print].

Design and analysis of distributed utility maximization algorithm for multihop wireless network with inaccurate feedback

Distributed network utility maximization (NUM) is receiving increasing interests for cross-layer optimization problems in multihop wireless networks. Traditional distributed NUM algorithms rely heavily on feedback information between different network elements, such as traffic sources and routers. Because of the distinct features of multihop wireless networks such as time-varying channels and dynamic network topology, the feedback information is usually inaccurate, which represents as a major obstacle for distributed NUM application to wireless networks. The questions to be answered include if distributed NUM algorithm can converge with inaccurate feedback and how to design effective distributed NUM algorithm for wireless networks. In this paper, we first use the infinitesimal perturbation analysis technique to provide an unbiased gradient estimation on the aggregate rate of traffic sources at the routers based on locally available information. On the basis of that, we propose a stochastic approximation algorithm to solve the distributed NUM problem with inaccurate feedback. We then prove that the proposed algorithm can converge to the optimum solution of distributed NUM with perfect feedback under certain conditions. The proposed algorithm is applied to the joint rate and media access control problem for wireless networks. Numerical results demonstrate the convergence of the proposed algorithm. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Design and analysis of distributed utility maximization algorithm for multihop wireless network with inaccurate feedback

Distributed network utility maximization (NUM) is receiving increasing interests for cross-layer optimization problems in multihop wireless networks. Traditional distributed NUM algorithms rely heavily on feedback information between different network elements, such as traffic sources and routers. Because of the distinct features of multihop wireless networks such as time-varying channels and dynamic network topology, the feedback information is usually inaccurate, which represents as a major obstacle for distributed NUM application to wireless networks. The questions to be answered include if distributed NUM algorithm can converge with inaccurate feedback and how to design effective distributed NUM algorithm for wireless networks. In this paper, we first use the infinitesimal perturbation analysis technique to provide an unbiased gradient estimation on the aggregate rate of traffic sources at the routers based on locally available information. On the basis of that, we propose a stochastic approximation algorithm to solve the distributed NUM problem with inaccurate feedback. We then prove that the proposed algorithm can converge to the optimum solution of distributed NUM with perfect feedback under certain conditions. The proposed algorithm is applied to the joint rate and media access control problem for wireless networks. Numerical results demonstrate the convergence of the proposed algorithm. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Spillovers from FDI and local networks:the importance of transactional linkages and vertical keiretsu in Japan

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to explore the importance of host country networks and organisation of production in the context of international technology transfer that accompanies foreign direct investment (FDI). Design/methodology/approach – The empirical analysis is based on unbalanced panel data covering Japanese firms active in two-digit manufacturing sectors over a seven-year period. Given the self-selection problem affecting past sectoral-level studies, using firm-level panel data is a prerequisite to provide robust empirical evidence. Findings – While Japan is thought of as being a technologically advanced country, the results show that vertical productivity spillovers from FDI occur in Japan, but they are sensitive to technological differences between domestic firms and the idiosyncratic Japanese institutional network. FDI in vertically organised keiretsu sectors generates inter-industry spillovers through backward and forward linkages, while FDI within sectors linked to vertical keiretsu activities adversely affects domestic productivity. Overall, our results suggest that the role of vertical keiretsu is more prevalent than that of horizontal keiretsu. Originality/value – Japan’s industrial landscape has been dominated by institutional clusters or networks of inter-firm organisations through reciprocated, direct and indirect ties. However, interactions between inward investors and such institutionalised networks in the host economy are seldom explored. The role and characteristics of local business groups, in the form of keiretsu networks, have been investigated to determine the scale and scope of spillovers from inward FDI to Japanese establishments. This conceptualisation depends on the institutional mechanism and the market structure through which host economies absorb and exploit FDI.

Establishing a framework for dynamic risk management in 'intelligent' aero-engine control

The behaviour of control functions in safety critical software systems is typically bounded to prevent the occurrence of known system level hazards. These bounds are typically derived through safety analyses and can be implemented through the use of necessary design features. However, the unpredictability of real world problems can result in changes in the operating context that may invalidate the behavioural bounds themselves, for example, unexpected hazardous operating contexts as a result of failures or degradation. For highly complex problems it may be infeasible to determine the precise desired behavioural bounds of a function that addresses or minimises risk for hazardous operation cases prior to deployment. This paper presents an overview of the safety challenges associated with such a problem and how such problems might be addressed. A self-management framework is proposed that performs on-line risk management. The features of the framework are shown in context of employing intelligent adaptive controllers operating within complex and highly dynamic problem domains such as Gas-Turbine Aero Engine control. Safety assurance arguments enabled by the framework necessary for certification are also outlined.

Neural network enhanced self tuning adaptive control application for non-linear control of dynamic systems

The main theme of research of this project concerns the study of neutral networks to control uncertain and non-linear control systems. This involves the control of continuous time, discrete time, hybrid and stochastic systems with input, state or output constraints by ensuring good performances. A great part of this project is devoted to the opening of frontiers between several mathematical and engineering approaches in order to tackle complex but very common non-linear control problems. The objectives are: 1. Design and develop procedures for neutral network enhanced self-tuning adaptive non-linear control systems; 2. To design, as a general procedure, neural network generalised minimum variance self-tuning controller for non-linear dynamic plants (Integration of neural network mapping with generalised minimum variance self-tuning controller strategies); 3. To develop a software package to evaluate control system performances using Matlab, Simulink and Neural Network toolbox. An adaptive control algorithm utilising a recurrent network as a model of a partial unknown non-linear plant with unmeasurable state is proposed. Appropriately, it appears that structured recurrent neural networks can provide conveniently parameterised dynamic models for many non-linear systems for use in adaptive control. Properties of static neural networks, which enabled successful design of stable adaptive control in the state feedback case, are also identified. A survey of the existing results is presented which puts them in a systematic framework showing their relation to classical self-tuning adaptive control application of neural control to a SISO/MIMO control. Simulation results demonstrate that the self-tuning design methods may be practically applicable to a reasonably large class of unknown linear and non-linear dynamic control systems.

Multiple roles for executive control in belief-desire reasoning:distinct neural networks are recruited for self perspective inhibition and complexity of reasoning

Belief-desire reasoning is a core component of 'Theory of Mind' (ToM), which can be used to explain and predict the behaviour of agents. Neuroimaging studies reliably identify a network of brain regions comprising a 'standard' network for ToM, including temporoparietal junction and medial prefrontal cortex. Whilst considerable experimental evidence suggests that executive control (EC) may support a functioning ToM, co-ordination of neural systems for ToM and EC is poorly understood. We report here use of a novel task in which psychologically relevant ToM parameters (true versus false belief; approach versus avoidance desire) were manipulated orthogonally. The valence of these parameters not only modulated brain activity in the 'standard' ToM network but also in EC regions. Varying the valence of both beliefs and desires recruits anterior cingulate cortex, suggesting a shared inhibitory component associated with negatively valenced mental state concepts. Varying the valence of beliefs additionally draws on ventrolateral prefrontal cortex, reflecting the need to inhibit self perspective. These data provide the first evidence that separate functional and neural systems for EC may be recruited in the service of different aspects of ToM.