Using monthly returns to model conditional heteroscedasticity

This empirical study examines the extent of non-linearity in a multivariate model of monthly financial series. To capture the conditional heteroscedasticity in the series, both the GARCH(1,1) and GARCH(1,1)-in-mean models are employed. The conditional errors are assumed to follow the normal and Student-t distributions. The non-linearity in the residuals of a standard OLS regression are also assessed. It is found that the OLS residuals as well as conditional errors of the GARCH models exhibit strong non-linearity. Under the Student density, the extent of non-linearity in the GARCH conditional errors was generally similar to those of the standard OLS. The GARCH-in-mean regression generated the worse out-of-sample forecasts.

The sensitivity of US banks' stock returns to interest and exchange rate changes

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to investigate the impact of foreign exchange and interest rate changes on US banks’ stock returns. Design/methodology/approach – The approach employs an EGARCH model to account for the ARCH effects in daily returns. Most prior studies have used standard OLS estimation methods with the result that the presence of ARCH effects would have affected estimation efficiency. For comparative purposes, the standard OLS estimation method is also used to measure sensitivity. Findings – The findings are as follows: under the conditional t-distributional assumption, the EGARCH model generated a much better fit to the data although the goodness-of-fit of the model is not entirely satisfactory; the market index return accounts for most of the variation in stock returns at both the individual bank and portfolio levels; and the degree of sensitivity of the stock returns to interest rate and FX rate changes is not very pronounced despite the use of high frequency data. Earlier results had indicated that daily data provided greater evidence of exposure sensitivity. Practical implications – Assuming that banks do not hedge perfectly, these findings have important financial implications as they suggest that the hedging policies of the banks are not reflected in their stock prices. Alternatively, it is possible that different GARCH-type models might be more appropriate when modelling high frequency returns. Originality/value – The paper contributes to existing knowledge in the area by showing that ARCH effects do impact on measures of sensitivity.

Is education the panacea for economic deprivation of Muslims? Evidence from wage earners in India, 1987-2005

Few researchers have examined the nature and determinants of earnings differentials among religious groups, and none has been undertaken in the context of conflict-prone multi-religious societies like the one in India. We address this lacuna in the literature by examining the differences in the average log earnings of Hindu and Muslim wage earners in India, during the 1987–2005 period. Our results indicate that education differences between Hindu and Muslim wage earners, especially differences in the proportion of wage earners with tertiary education, are largely responsible for the differences in the average log earnings of the two religious groups across the years. By contrast, differences in the returns to education do not explain the aforementioned difference in average log earnings. In conclusion, we discuss some policy implications.

Improving envelopment in Data Envelopment Analysis under variable returns to scale

In a Data Envelopment Analysis model, some of the weights used to compute the efficiency of a unit can have zero or negligible value despite of the importance of the corresponding input or output. This paper offers an approach to preventing inputs and outputs from being ignored in the DEA assessment under the multiple input and output VRS environment, building on an approach introduced in Allen and Thanassoulis (2004) for single input multiple output CRS cases. The proposed method is based on the idea of introducing unobserved DMUs created by adjusting input and output levels of certain observed relatively efficient DMUs, in a manner which reflects a combination of technical information and the decision maker's value judgements. In contrast to many alternative techniques used to constrain weights and/or improve envelopment in DEA, this approach allows one to impose local information on production trade-offs, which are in line with the general VRS technology. The suggested procedure is illustrated using real data. © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Earnings differences between Chinese and Indian wage earners, 1987-2004

This paper is one of the first comprehensive attempts to compare earnings in urban China and India over the recent period. While both economies have grown considerably, we illustrate significant cross-country differences in wage growth since the late 1980s. For this purpose, we make use of comparable datasets, estimate Mincer equations and perform Oaxaca–Blinder decompositions at the mean and at different points of the wage distribution. The initial wage differential in favor of Indian workers, observed in the middle and upper part of the distribution, partly disappears over time. While the 1980s Indian premium is mainly due to higher returns to education and experience, a combination of price and endowment effects explains why Chinese wages have caught up, especially since the mid-1990s. The price effect is only partly explained by the observed convergence in returns to education; the endowment effect is driven by faster increase in education levels in China and significantly accentuates the reversal of the wage gap in favor of this country for the first half of the wage distribution.

An analysis of costs in institutions of higher education in England

Cost functions are estimated, using random effects and stochastic frontier methods, for English higher education institutions. The article advances on existing literature by employing finer disaggregation by subject, institution type and location, and by introducing consideration of quality effects. Estimates are provided of average incremental costs attached to each output type, and of returns to scale and scope. Implications for the policy of expansion of higher education are discussed.

Does move to market have an impact on earnings gap across gender? Some evidence from India

We use Indian National Sample Survey employment–unemployment data for the urban sector for the years 1987 and 1999. Our results indicate that the gender wage gap had narrowed considerably between these two years, for all earnings deciles and for all education cohorts. The narrowing of the earnings gap can be attributed largely to a sharp increase in the returns to the labour market experience of women.

Do external funds yield lower returns? Recent evidence from East Asian economies

One of the central explanations of the recent Asian Crisis has been the problem of moral hazard as the source of over-investment and excessive external borrowing. There is however rather limited firm-level empirical evidence to characterise inefficient use of internal and external finances. Using a large firm-level panel data-set from four badly affected Asian countries, this paper compares the rates of return to various internal and external funds among firms with low and high debt financing (relative to equity) among financially constrained and other firms. Selectivity-corrected estimates obtained from random effects panel data model do suggest evidence of significantly lower rates of return to long-term debt, even among firms relying more on debt relative to equity in our sample. There is also evidence that average effective interest rates often significantly exceeded the average returns to long-term debt in the sample countries in the pre-crisis period. © 2006 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Introduction to the theory and application of data envelopment analysis:a foundation text with integrated software

The book aims to introduce the reader to DEA in the most accessible manner possible. It is specifically aimed at those who have had no prior exposure to DEA and wish to learn its essentials, how it works, its key uses, and the mechanics of using it. The latter will include using DEA software. Students on degree or training courses will find the book especially helpful. The same is true of practitioners engaging in comparative efficiency assessments and performance management within their organisation. Examples are used throughout the book to help the reader consolidate the concepts covered. Table of content: List of Tables. List of Figures. Preface. Abbreviations. 1. Introduction to Performance Measurement. 2. Definitions of Efficiency and Related Measures. 3. Data Envelopment Analysis Under Constant Returns to Scale: Basic Principles. 4. Data Envelopment Analysis under Constant Returns to Scale: General Models. 5. Using Data Envelopment Analysis in Practice. 6. Data Envelopment Analysis under Variable Returns to Scale. 7. Assessing Policy Effectiveness and Productivity Change Using DEA. 8. Incorporating Value Judgements in DEA Assessments. 9. Extensions to Basic DEA Models. 10. A Limited User Guide for Warwick DEA Software. Author Index. Topic Index. References.

Malmquist indexes using a geometric distance function (GDF):application to a sample of Portuguese bank branches

Traditional approaches to calculate total factor productivity (TFP) change through Malmquist indexes rely on distance functions. In this paper we show that the use of distance functions as a means to calculate TFP change may introduce some bias in the analysis, and therefore we propose a procedure that calculates TFP change through observed values only. Our total TFP change is then decomposed into efficiency change, technological change, and a residual effect. This decomposition makes use of a non-oriented measure in order to avoid problems associated with the traditional use of radial oriented measures, especially when variable returns to scale technologies are to be compared. The proposed approach is applied in this paper to a sample of Portuguese bank branches.

Education and self-management for people newly diagnosed with type 2 diabetes: a qualitative study of patients' views.

OObjectives: We explored the perceptions, views and experiences of diabetes education in people with type 2 diabetes who were participating in a UK randomized controlled trial of methods of education. The intervention arm of the trial was based on DESMOND, a structured programme of group education sessions aimed at enabling self-management of diabetes, while the standard arm was usual care from general practices. Methods: Individual semi-structured interviews were conducted with 36 adult patients, of whom 19 had attended DESMOND education sessions and 17 had been randomized to receive usual care. Data analysis was based on the constant comparative method. Results: Four principal orientations towards diabetes and its management were identified: `resisters', `identity resisters, consequence accepters', `identity accepters, consequence resisters' and `accepters'. Participants offered varying accounts of the degree of personal responsibility that needed to be assumed in response to the diagnosis. Preferences for different styles of education were also expressed, with many reporting that they enjoyed and benefited from group education, although some reported ambivalence or disappointment with their experiences of education. It was difficult to identify striking thematic differences between accounts of people on different arms of the trial, although there was some very tentative evidence that those who attended DESMOND were more accepting of a changed identity and its implications for their management of diabetes. Discussion: No one single approach to education is likely to suit all people newly diagnosed with diabetes, although structured group education may suit many. This paper identifies varying orientations and preferences of people with diabetes towards forms of both education and self-management, which should be taken into account when planning approaches to education.

Ethnic conflict and economic disparity:Serbians and Albanians in Kosovo

Using the Living Standards Measurement Study (LSMS) household survey from post-conflict Kosovo, we investigate the comparative economic well-being of Serbs and Albanians. An Oaxaca decomposition shows Serb households are both better endowed with income generating characteristics, such as education, and receive higher returns to these characteristics than Albanian households. Despite these advantages, Serb households have lower living standards, on average, than Albanian households. Most of the difference in living standards between Serb and Albanian households is due to unobserved non-economic factors. This result has serious implications for the political economy of policymaking in post-conflict Kosovo.

R&D and productivity:using UK firm-level data to inform policy

The UK's business R&D (BERD) to GDP ratio is low compared to other leading economies, and the ratio has declined over the 1990s. This paper uses data on 719 large UK firms to analyse the link between R&D and productivity during 1989-2000. The results indicate that UK returns to R&D are similar to returns in other leading economies and have been relatively stable over the 1990s. The analysis suggests that the low BERD to GDP ratio in the UK is unlikely to be due to direct financial or human capital constraints (as these imply finding relatively high rates of return). © Springer Science+Business Media, LLC 2009.

A linear relational DEA model to evaluate two-stage processes with shared inputs

Two-stage data envelopment analysis (DEA) efficiency models identify the efficient frontier of a two-stage production process. In some two-stage processes, the inputs to the first stage are shared by the second stage, known as shared inputs. This paper proposes a new relational linear DEA model for dealing with measuring the efficiency score of two-stage processes with shared inputs under constant returns-to-scale assumption. Two case studies of banking industry and university operations are taken as two examples to illustrate the potential applications of the proposed approach.

How education should link with career paths

How good is your pharmacy practice? And what does “good” look like? Take a look back at the education and training you have received in your career to date. Has it stood you in good stead? Certainly there is a need to establish a model of professional education and development that produces good pharmacists — you should be able to demonstrate your competence regardless of your sector of work. It may help if we move away from the view that excellence in pharmacy practice is primarily defined by where you practise and the kind of job that you do. The Modernising Pharmacy Careers programme’s aspirations to integrate the undergraduate degree with the preregistration training year are bold and to be applauded — provided the outcome delivers changes that are more than superficial. The new model needs to deliver greater integration of education with practice, while retaining an adequate science base. Theory should be put into the context of practice-based, cross-sector learning needs and opportunities. For example, is the classroom really the best environment in which to learn dispensing? Pharmacokinetic theory could be put into context through creatively designed work placements. And it might make more sense to learn patient counselling in a community pharmacy, and so on. Is it resources we lack to make this happen? Or do we lack the collective will to be imaginative, to be radical and to conceive new approaches to professional education? Implicit in this new approach to education is the expectation that pharmacists should teach and mentor and, conversely, that those who teach should also engage in relevant practice. University education must produce graduates whose knowledge and competence are useful to employers. Moreover, graduates must be adequately prepared to enter any area of the profession endowed with professional self-confidence (something, arguably, that needs further development within the pharmacy psyche). Of course, becoming qualified is just the beginning. Post-qualification, pharmacists need structured career paths that foster this professional confidence, support learning and ensure recognition. To this end, the Royal Pharmaceutical Society-led professional curriculum group is working to define knowledge, skills and experience for all areas of advanced practice. More than ever, the profession needs to adopt a culture of learning, teaching and practice research that is unified. The question is: how do we move away from merely collecting qualifications (trophies) to developing meaningful careers? Pharmacists in all areas and at all levels of the profession need to consider their own willingness to make this shift. The RPS and MPC are leading the way, but are we following?