Modelling and improving maintenance decisions:Having foresight with simulation and artificial intelligence

Machine breakdowns are one of the main sources of disruption and throughput fluctuation in highly automated production facilities. One element in reducing this disruption is ensuring that the maintenance team responds correctly to machine failures. It is, however, difficult to determine the current practice employed by the maintenance team, let alone suggest improvements to it. 'Knowledge based improvement' is a methodology that aims to address this issue, by (a) eliciting knowledge on current practice, (b) evaluating that practice and (c) looking for improvements. The methodology, based on visual interactive simulation and artificial intelligence methods, and its application to a Ford engine assembly facility are described. Copyright © 2002 Society of Automotive Engineers, Inc.

Knowledge based improvement:simulation and artificial intelligence for identifying and improving human decision-making in an operations systems

The performance of most operations systems is significantly affected by the interaction of human decision-makers. A methodology, based on the use of visual interactive simulation (VIS) and artificial intelligence (AI), is described that aims to identify and improve human decision-making in operations systems. The methodology, known as 'knowledge-based improvement' (KBI), elicits knowledge from a decision-maker via a VIS and then uses AI methods to represent decision-making. By linking the VIS and AI representation, it is possible to predict the performance of the operations system under different decision-making strategies and to search for improved strategies. The KBI methodology is applied to the decision-making surrounding unplanned maintenance operations at a Ford Motor Company engine assembly plant.

A biological-inspired support frame for an artificial cornea

Bilateral corneal blindness represents a quarter of the total blind, world-wide. The artificial cornea in assorted forms, was developed to replace opaque non-functional corneas and to return sight in otherwise hopeless cases that were not amenable to corneal grafts; believed to be 2% of corneal blind. Despite technological advances in materials design and tissue engineering no artificial cornea has provided absolute, long-term success. Formidable problems exist, due to a combination of unpredictable wound healing and unmanageable pathology. To have a solid guarantee of reliable success an artificial cornea must possess three attributes: an optical window to replace the opaque cornea; a strong, long term union to surrounding ocular tissue; and the ability to induce desired host responses. A unique artificial cornea possesses all three functional attributes- the Osteo-odonto-keratoprosthesis (OOKP). The OOKP has a high success rate and can survive for up to twenty years, but it is complicated both in structure and in surgical procedure; it is expensive and not universally available. The aim of this project was to develop a synthetic substitute for the OOKP, based upon key features of the tooth and bone structure. In doing so, surgical complexity and biological complications would be reduced. Analysis of the biological effectiveness of the OOKP showed that the structure of bone was the most crucial component for implant retention. An experimental semi-rigid hydroxyapatite framework was fabricated with a complex bone-like architecture, which could be fused to the optical window. The first method for making such a framework, was pressing and sintering of hydroxyapatite powders; however, it was not possible to fabricate a void architecture with the correct sizes and uniformity of pores. Ceramers were synthesised using alternative pore forming methods, providing for improved mechanical properties and stronger attachment to the plastic optical window. Naturally occurring skeletal structures closely match the structural features of all forms of natural bone. Synthetic casts were fabricated using the replamineform process, of desirable natural artifacts, such as coral and sponges. The final method of construction by-passed ceramic fabrication in favour of pre-formed coral derivatives and focused on methods for polymer infiltration, adhesion and fabrication. Prototypes were constructed and evaluated; a fully penetrative synthetic OOKP analogue was fabricated according to the dimensions of the OOKP. Fabrication of the cornea shaped OOKP synthetic analogue was also attempted.

The application of artificial neural networks to the interpretation and classification of freshwater benthic invertebrate communities

This thesis presents a thorough and principled investigation into the application of artificial neural networks to the biological monitoring of freshwater. It contains original ideas on the classification and interpretation of benthic macroinvertebrates, and aims to demonstrate their superiority over the biotic systems currently used in the UK to report river water quality. The conceptual basis of a new biological classification system is described, and a full review and analysis of a number of river data sets is presented. The biological classification is compared to the common biotic systems using data from the Upper Trent catchment. This data contained 292 expertly classified invertebrate samples identified to mixed taxonomic levels. The neural network experimental work concentrates on the classification of the invertebrate samples into biological class, where only a subset of the sample is used to form the classification. Other experimentation is conducted into the identification of novel input samples, the classification of samples from different biotopes and the use of prior information in the neural network models. The biological classification is shown to provide an intuitive interpretation of a graphical representation, generated without reference to the class labels, of the Upper Trent data. The selection of key indicator taxa is considered using three different approaches; one novel, one from information theory and one from classical statistical methods. Good indicators of quality class based on these analyses are found to be in good agreement with those chosen by a domain expert. The change in information associated with different levels of identification and enumeration of taxa is quantified. The feasibility of using neural network classifiers and predictors to develop numeric criteria for the biological assessment of sediment contamination in the Great Lakes is also investigated.

The effects of solar radiation pressure on the motion of an artificial satellite

This thesis documents an investigation of the effect of solar radiation pressure on the motion of an artificial satellite. Consideration is given to the methods required for the inclusion of the discontinuous effect of the Earth's shadow. The analysis resulting from the description of a deformed diffusely reflecting balloon satellite and an algorithm describing the effects of Earth reflected solar radiation pressure are developed, culminating in the application of the derived theory to the orbital data of the balloon satellite, Explorer 19.

Practical methods of tracking of nonstationary time series applied to real-world data

In this paper, we discuss some practical implications for implementing adaptable network algorithms applied to non-stationary time series problems. Two real world data sets, containing electricity load demands and foreign exchange market prices, are used to test several different methods, ranging from linear models with fixed parameters, to non-linear models which adapt both parameters and model order on-line. Training with the extended Kalman filter, we demonstrate that the dynamic model-order increment procedure of the resource allocating RBF network (RAN) is highly sensitive to the parameters of the novelty criterion. We investigate the use of system noise for increasing the plasticity of the Kalman filter training algorithm, and discuss the consequences for on-line model order selection. The results of our experiments show that there are advantages to be gained in tracking real world non-stationary data through the use of more complex adaptive models.

Evaluating the performance of a EuroDivisia index using artificial intelligence techniques

We compare two methods in order to predict inflation rates in Europe. One method uses a standard back propagation neural network and the other uses an evolutionary approach, where the network weights and the network architecture is evolved. Results indicate that back propagation produces superior results. However, the evolving network still produces reasonable results with the advantage that the experimental set-up is minimal. Also of interest is the fact that the Divisia measure of money is superior as a predictive tool over simple sum.

Evaluating the performance of a EuroDivisia index using artificial intelligence techniques

This paper compares two methods to predict in°ation rates in Europe. One method uses a standard back propagation neural network and the other uses an evolutionary approach, where the network weights and the network architecture are evolved. Results indicate that back propagation produces superior results. However, the evolving network still produces reasonable results with the advantage that the experimental set-up is minimal. Also of interest is the fact that the Divisia measure of money is superior as a predictive tool over simple sum.

Evaluation efficiency of large-scale data set with negative data:an artificial neural network approach

Data envelopment analysis (DEA) is the most widely used methods for measuring the efficiency and productivity of decision-making units (DMUs). The need for huge computer resources in terms of memory and CPU time in DEA is inevitable for a large-scale data set, especially with negative measures. In recent years, wide ranges of studies have been conducted in the area of artificial neural network and DEA combined methods. In this study, a supervised feed-forward neural network is proposed to evaluate the efficiency and productivity of large-scale data sets with negative values in contrast to the corresponding DEA method. Results indicate that the proposed network has some computational advantages over the corresponding DEA models; therefore, it can be considered as a useful tool for measuring the efficiency of DMUs with (large-scale) negative data.

An artificial neural network stratifies the risks of reintervention and mortality after endovascular aneurysm repair:a retrospective observational study

Background Lifelong surveillance after endovascular repair (EVAR) of abdominal aortic aneurysms (AAA) is considered mandatory to detect potentially life-threatening endograft complications. A minority of patients require reintervention but cannot be predictively identified by existing methods. This study aimed to improve the prediction of endograft complications and mortality, through the application of machine-learning techniques. Methods Patients undergoing EVAR at 2 centres were studied from 2004-2010. Pre-operative aneurysm morphology was quantified and endograft complications were recorded up to 5 years following surgery. An artificial neural networks (ANN) approach was used to predict whether patients would be at low- or high-risk of endograft complications (aortic/limb) or mortality. Centre 1 data were used for training and centre 2 data for validation. ANN performance was assessed by Kaplan-Meier analysis to compare the incidence of aortic complications, limb complications, and mortality; in patients predicted to be low-risk, versus those predicted to be high-risk. Results 761 patients aged 75 +/- 7 years underwent EVAR. Mean follow-up was 36+/- 20 months. An ANN was created from morphological features including angulation/length/areas/diameters/ volume/tortuosity of the aneurysm neck/sac/iliac segments. ANN models predicted endograft complications and mortality with excellent discrimination between a low-risk and high-risk group. In external validation, the 5-year rates of freedom from aortic complications, limb complications and mortality were 95.9% vs 67.9%; 99.3% vs 92.0%; and 87.9% vs 79.3% respectively (p0.001) Conclusion This study presents ANN models that stratify the 5-year risk of endograft complications or mortality using routinely available pre-operative data.

Formal methods @ runtime

Heuristics, simulation, artificial intelligence techniques and combinations thereof have all been employed in the attempt to make computer systems adaptive, context-aware, reconfigurable and self-managing. This paper complements such efforts by exploring the possibility to achieve runtime adaptiveness using mathematically-based techniques from the area of formal methods. It is argued that formal methods @ runtime represents a feasible approach, and promising preliminary results are summarised to support this viewpoint. The survey of existing approaches to employing formal methods at runtime is accompanied by a discussion of their challenges and of the future research required to overcome them. © 2011 Springer-Verlag.