Forecasting and risk analysis applied to management planning and control

The aim of this research was to improve the quantitative support to project planning and control principally through the use of more accurate forecasting for which new techniques were developed. This study arose from the observation that in most cases construction project forecasts were based on a methodology (c.1980) which relied on the DHSS cumulative cubic cost model and network based risk analysis (PERT). The former of these, in particular, imposes severe limitations which this study overcomes. Three areas of study were identified, namely growth curve forecasting, risk analysis and the interface of these quantitative techniques with project management. These fields have been used as a basis for the research programme. In order to give a sound basis for the research, industrial support was sought. This resulted in both the acquisition of cost profiles for a large number of projects and the opportunity to validate practical implementation. The outcome of this research project was deemed successful both in theory and practice. The new forecasting theory was shown to give major reductions in projection errors. The integration of the new predictive and risk analysis technologies with management principles, allowed the development of a viable software management aid which fills an acknowledged gap in current technology.

Industrial networks of the future:review of research and practice

Academic researchers have followed closely the interest of companies in establishing industrial networks by studying aspects such as social interaction and contractual relationships. But what patterns underlie the emergence of industrial networks and what support should research provide for practitioners? Firstly, it appears that manufacturing is becoming a commodity rather than a unique capability, which accounts especially for low-technology approaches in downstream parts of the network, for example in assembly operations. Secondly, the increased tendency towards specialization has forced other, upstream, parts of industrial networks to introduce advanced manufacturing technologies to supply niche markets. Thirdly, the capital market for investments in capacity, and the trade in manufacturing as a commodity, dominates resource allocation to a larger extent than previously was the case. Fourthly, there is a continuous move towards more loosely connected entities that comprise manufacturing networks. More traditional concepts, such as the “keiretsu” and “chaibol” networks of some Asian economies, do not sufficiently support the demands now being placed on networks. Research should address these four fundamental challenges to prepare for the industrial networks of 2020 and beyond.

The development and operation of the effective interpersonal relationship skills relevant to career development problems from staff assessment at an industrial research laboratory

This study concerns the application of a model of effective interpersonal relationships to problems arising from staff assessment at I.C.I. Ltd. Corporate Laboratory between 1972 and 1974. In collaboration with academic and industrial supervision, the study commenced with a survey of management and supervisor opinions about the effectiveness of current staff (work) relationships, with particular reference to the problem of recognising and developing creative potential. This survey emphasised a need to improve the relationships between staff in the staff assessment context. A survey of research into creativity emphasised the importance of the interpersonal environment for obtaining creative behaviour in an organisation context. A further survey of theories of how inter­personal behaviour related to personal creativity (therapeutic psychology) provided a model of effective interpersonal behaviour (Carkhuff, 1969) that could be applied to the organisation context of staff assessment. The objective of the project was redefined as a need to improve the conditions of interpersonal behaviour in relation to certain (career development) problems arising from staff assessment practices. In order to demonstrate the application of the model of effective interpersonal behaviour, the research student recorded interviews between himself and members of staff designed to develop and operate the dimensions of the model. Different samples of staff were used to develop the 'facilitative' and the 'action oriented' dimensions of bahaviour, and then for the operation of a helping programme (based on vocational guidance tests). These interactions have been analysed, according to the scales of measurement in the model ana the results are presented in case study form in this thesis. At each stage of the project, results and conclusions were presented to the sponsoring organisation (e.g. industrial supervisor) in order to assess their (subjective) opinion of relevance to the organ­ isation. Finally, recommendations on further actions towards general improvement of the work relationships in the laboratory were presented in a brief report to the sponsor.

A review of research and practice for the industrial networks of the future

Academic researchers have followed closely the interest of companies in establishing industrial networks by studying aspects such as social interaction and contractual relationships. But what patterns underlie the emergence of industrial networks and what support should research provide for practitioners? First, it appears that manufacturing is becoming a commodity rather than a unique capability, which accounts especially for low-technology approaches in downstream parts of the network, for example, in assembly operations. Second, the increased tendency towards specialisation has forced other, upstream, parts of industrial networks to introduce advanced manufacturing technologies for niche markets. Third, the capital market for investments in capacity, and the trade in manufacturing as a commodity, dominates resource allocation to a larger extent than was previously the case. Fourth, there is becoming a continuous move towards more loosely connected entities that comprise manufacturing networks. Finally, in these networks, concepts for supply chain management should address collaboration and information technology that supports decentralised decision-making, in particular to address sustainable and green supply chains. More traditional concepts, such as the keiretsu and chaibol networks of some Asian economies, do not sufficiently support the demands now being placed on networks. Research should address these five fundamental challenges to prepare for the industrial networks of 2020 and beyond. © 2010 Springer-Verlag London.

Industrial networks of the future:a critical commentary on research and practice

Academia has followed the interest by companies in establishing industrial networks by studying aspects such as social interaction and contractual relationships. But what patterns underlie the emergence of industrial networks and what support should research provide for practitioners? Firstly, it seems that manufacturing is becoming a commodity rather than a unique capability, which accounts especially for low-technology approaches in downstream parts of the network, for example in assembly operations. Secondly, the increased tendency to specialize forces other parts of industrial networks to introduce advanced manufacturing technologies for niche markets. Thirdly, the capital market for investments in capacity and the trade in manufacturing as a commodity dominates resource allocation to a larger extent. Fourthly, there will be a continuous move toward more loosely connected entities forming manufacturing networks. More traditional concepts, like keiretsu and chaibol networks, do not sufficiently support this transition. Research should address these fundamental challenges to prepare for the industrial networks of 2020 and beyond.

Review of industrial temperature measurement technologies and research priorities for the thermal characterisation of the factories of the future

As the largest source of dimensional measurement uncertainty, addressing the challenges of thermal variation is vital to ensure product and equipment integrity in the factories of the future. While it is possible to closely control room temperature, this is often not practical or economical to realise in all cases where inspection is required. This article reviews recent progress and trends in seven key commercially available industrial temperature measurement sensor technologies primarily in the range of 0 °C–50 °C for invasive, semi-invasive and non-invasive measurement. These sensors will ultimately be used to measure and model thermal variation in the assembly, test and integration environment. The intended applications for these technologies are presented alongside some consideration of measurement uncertainty requirements with regard to the thermal expansion of common materials. Research priorities are identified and discussed for each of the technologies as well as temperature measurement at large. Future developments are briefly discussed to provide some insight into which direction the development and application of temperature measurement technologies are likely to head.

Networks, space and organisational performance:a study of the determinants of industrial research income generation by universities

This paper examines the extent to which both network structure and spatial factors impact on the organizational performance of universities as measured by the generation of industrial research income. Drawing on data concerning the interactions of universities in the UK with large research and development (R&D)-intensive firms, the paper employs both social network analysis and regression analysis. It is found that the structural position of a university within networks with large R&D-intensive firms is significantly associated with the level of research income gained from industry. Spatial factors, on the other hand, are not found to be clearly associated with performance, suggesting that universities operate on a level playing field across regional environments once other factors are controlled for.

Impact of the length of relationships upon the use of research institutes by SMEs

Recent studies of US industrial modernisation programmes argue that difficulties of establishing long-term relationships with users prevent them from facilitating development of innovation capabilities. The paper supports this argument through a survey of Japanese research institutes the US programmes were modelled on. In view of information asymmetries in their use, it tests the hypothesis that small and medium-sized firms start using the research institutes with ‘low information gap’ services and gradually move on to ‘high information gap’ services that often require more absorptive capacity. This is demonstrated both under one-to-one relationships and between groups of firms and a research institute.

Life with sheepdogs:alternative metaphorical models of the doctoral research process revisited

The doctoral research process is the entry path for the academic profession. Traditionally it is explained by reference to another professional entry path, the industrial apprenticeship. Revisiting a paper and discussion originally held at the Marketing Education Group conference in 1991, we explore the implications and limitations of this metaphorical model, suggest alternatives and consider the interaction between student characteristics and supervisory approach. Through this process we offer marketing academics a vast range of unflattering metaphors to employ in describing themselves, their students, their supervisors and their colleagues.

Technology transfer to China:a study of strategy in 20 EU industrial companies

Foreign direct investment has been important in China's economic development since the early 1980s. In recent years, the volume of inward FDI into China, according to some estimates, has been second only to that into the USA. The Chinese government has emphasised the need for FDI to be coupled with the transfer of more advanced technologies to China. For foreign companies, technology transfer raises the risk of losing their technology based competitive advantage to potential competitor firms. This risk may be exacerbated by insufficient legal protection of intellectual property rights in China. After briefly reviewing the development of Chinese official policy on technology transfer, this paper considers the strategy adopted by EU companies regarding the transfer of technology; in particular in advanced technology sectors. The research on which the paper is based included an analysis of information gathered from 20 leading EU companies with investments in China and operating in high-technology sectors. Information was gathered from senior company managers based in both China and Europe during the second half of 1998. The main findings include a measure of reluctance on the part of EU companies to transfer their core technologies to China and to base R&D capability there. At the same time, the companies appear aware that this policy may be unsustainable in the longer-term in the face of Chinese official policy and a desire to expand their operations in China. While they attempt to protect their existing technological knowledge, most of them accept that there will be technology "leakage" and therefore the most effective strategy is to maintain their technological lead through R&D.

Using grounded theory for theory building in operations management research:a study on inter-firm relationship governance

Purpose – Qualitative theory building approaches, such as grounded theory method (GTM), are still not very widespread and rigorously applied in operations management (OM) research. Yet it is agreed that more systematic observation of current industrial phenomena is necessary to help managers deal with their problems. The purpose of this paper is to provide an example to help guide other researchers on using GTM for theory building in OM research. Design/methodology/approach – A GTM study in the German automotive industry consisting of 31 interviews is followed by a validation stage comprising a survey (110 responses) and a focus group. Findings – The result is an example of conducting GTM research in OM, illustrated by the development of the novel collaborative enterprise governance framework for inter-firm relationship governance in the German automotive industry. Research limitations/implications – GTM is appropriate for qualitative theory building research, but the resultant theories need further testing. Research is necessary to identify the transferability of the collaborative enterprise governance concept to other industries than automotive, to other organisational areas than R&D and to product and service settings that are less complex and innovative. Practical implications – The paper helps researchers make more informed use of GTM when engaging in qualitative theory building research in OM. Originality/value – There is a lack of explicit and well-informed use of GTM in OM research because of poor understanding. This paper addresses this deficiency. The collaborative enterprise governance framework is a significant contribution in an area of growing importance within OM.

New technology, industrial relations and white collar trade unions : the case of the National and Local Government Officers Association

The decade since 1979 has seen the most rapid introduction of microelectronic technology in the workplace. In particular, the scope offered for the application of this new technology to the area of white collar work has meant that it is a sector where trade unions have been confronted with major challenges. However the application of this technology has also provided trade unions with opportunities for exerting influence to reshape traditional attitudes to both industrial relations and the nature of work. Recent academic research on the trade union response to the introduction of new technology at the workplace suggests that, despite the resources and apparent sophistication of modern trade unions, they have not in general been able to take advantage of the opportunities offered during this period of radical technological change,the argument being that this is due both to structural weaknesses and the inappropriateness of the system of collective bargaining where new technology issues are concerned. Despite the significance of the Public Sector in employment terms, research into the response of public sector white collar trade unions to technological change has been fairly limited. This thesis sets out the approach of the National and Local Government Officers Association (NALGO), the largest solely white collar union in the world with over three quarters of a million members employed in a wide range of public service industries. The thesis examines NALGO's response at national level and, through detailed case studies, at local level in respect of Local Government and Water Industry NALGO members. The response is then evaluated and conclusions drawn in terms of a framework based upon an assessment of the key factors relevant in judging the ability of NALGO to respond effectively to the challenges brought about by the technological revolution of the last ten years.

Identification of industrial sources of airborne heavy metal pollution in urban areas

The research examines the deposition of airborne particles which contain heavy metals and investigates the methods that can be used to identify their sources. The research focuses on lead and cadmium because these two metals are of growing public and scientific concern on environmental health grounds. The research consists of three distinct parts. The first is the development and evaluation of a new deposition measurement instrument - the deposit cannister - designed specifically for large-scale surveys in urban areas. The deposit cannister is specifically designed to be cheap, robust, and versatile and therefore to permit comprehensive high-density urban surveys. The siting policy reduces contamination from locally resuspended surface-dust. The second part of the research has involved detailed surveys of heavy metal deposition in Walsall, West Midlands, using the new high-density measurement method. The main survey, conducted over a six-week period in November - December 1982, provided 30-day samples of deposition at 250 different sites. The results have been used to examine the magnitude and spatial variability of deposition rates in the case-study area, and to evaluate the performance of the measurement method. The third part of the research has been to conduct a 'source-identification' exercise. The methods used have been Receptor Models - Factor Analysis and Cluster Analysis - and a predictive source-based deposition model. The results indicate that there are six main source processes contributing to deposition of metals in the Walsall area: coal combustion, vehicle emissions, ironfounding, copper refining and two general industrial/urban processes. |A source-based deposition model has been calibrated using facctorscores for one source factor as the dependent variable, rather than metal deposition rates, thus avoiding problems traditionally encountered in calibrating models in complex multi-source areas. Empirical evidence supports the hypothesised associatlon of this factor with emissions of metals from the ironfoundry industry.

Strategic planning in a decentralised industrial group : a process-action study

The research was carried out within a major public company. It sought to implement an approach to strategic planning which accounted for organisational values as well as employing a holistic value-free analysis of the firm and its environment. To this end, an 'ecological' model of the firm was formulated. A series of value-free strategic policies for its development were generated. These policies were validated by the company's top-management.They compared favourably with their own planning outcomes. The approach appeared to be diagnostically strong but lacked sufficient depth in the context of finding realistic corrective measures. However, feedback from the company showed it to be a useful complementary process to conventional procedures, in providing an explicitly different perspective. The research empirically evaluated the company's value-systems and their influence on strategy. It introduced the idea of an organisational 'self-concept' pre-determining the acceptability of various strategies.The values and the "self-concept' of the company were identified and validated, They appeared to have considerable influence on strategy. In addition, tho company's planning process within the decentralised structure was shown to be sub-optimal. This resulted from the variety of value systems maintained by different parts of the organisation. Proposals attempting to redress this situation were ofJered and several accepted. The study was postured as process-action research and the chosen perspective could be succinctly described as a 'worm's-eye view', akin to that of many real planners operating at some distance from the decision-making body. In this way, the normal strategic functionings of the firm and any changes resulting from the researcher's intervention were observed and recorded. Recurrent difficulties of the planning process resulting from the decentralised structure were identified. The overall procedure suggested as a result of the research aimed to increase the viabiIity of planning and the efficiency of the process. It is considered to be flexible enough to be applicable in a broader context.

The management of diversification in a large industrial company

This work is the result of an action-research-type study of the diversification effort of part of a major U.K. industrial company. Work in contingency theory concerning the impact of environmental factors on organizational design, and the systemic model of viable systems put forward by Stafford Beer form the theoretical basis of the vvork. The two streams of thought are compared and found to offer similar conclusions about the design of effective organizations. These findings are taken as the framework for an analysis both of organization structures for promoting innovation described in the literature, and of those employed by the company for this purpose in recent years. Much attention is given to the use of venture groups, and conclusions are drawn on particular factors which may influence their success or failure. Both theoretical considerations, and the examination of the company' s recent experience suggested that the formation of the policy of diversification, as well as the method of implementation of the police, might affect its outcorre. Attention is therefore focused on the policy-making and planning process, and in particular on possible problems that this process could generate in a multi-division company. The view finally taken of diversification effort is that it should be regarded as a learning system. This view helps to expose some ambiguities in the concepts of success and failure in this area, and demonstrates considerable weaknesses in traditional project evaluation procedures.