Using XML and XSLT for flexible elicitation of mental-health risk knowledge

Current tools for assessing risks associated with mental-health problems require assessors to make high-level judgements based on clinical experience. This paper describes how new technologies can enhance qualitative research methods to identify lower-level cues underlying these judgements, which can be collected by people without a specialist mental-health background. Content analysis of interviews with 46 multidisciplinary mental-health experts exposed the cues and their interrelationships, which were represented by a mind map using software that stores maps as XML. All 46 mind maps were integrated into a single XML knowledge structure and analysed by a Lisp program to generate quantitative information about the numbers of experts associated with each part of it. The knowledge was refined by the experts, using software developed in Flash to record their collective views within the XML itself. These views specified how the XML should be transformed by XSLT, a technology for rendering XML, which resulted in a validated hierarchical knowledge structure associating patient cues with risks. Changing knowledge elicitation requirements were accommodated by flexible transformations of XML data using XSLT, which also facilitated generation of multiple data-gathering tools suiting different assessment circumstances and levels of mental-health knowledge. © 2007 Informa UK Ltd All rights reserved.

Requirements for modelling e-business processes

Companies must not see e-Business as a panacea but instead assess the specific impact of implementing e-Business on their business from both an internal and external perspective. E-Business is promoted as being able to increase the speed of response and reduce costs locally but these benefits must be assessed for the wider business rather than as local improvements. This paper argues that any assessment must include quantitative analysis that covers the physical as well as the information flows within a business. It is noted that as business processes are e-enabled their structure does not significantly change and it is only by the use of modelling techniques that the operational impact can be ascertained. The paper reviews techniques that are appropriate for this type of analysis as well as specific modelling tools and applications. Through this review a set of requirements for e-Business process modelling is derived.

Improving the use of visual interactive simulation as a knowledge elicitation tool

Knowledge elicitation is a well-known bottleneck in the production of knowledge-based systems (KBS). Past research has shown that visual interactive simulation (VIS) could effectively be used to elicit episodic knowledge that is appropriate for machine learning purposes, with a view to building a KBS. Nonetheless, the VIS-based elicitation process still has much room for improvement. Based in the Ford Dagenham Engine Assembly Plant, a research project is being undertaken to investigate the individual/joint effects of visual display level and mode of problem case generation on the elicitation process. This paper looks at the methodology employed and some issues that have been encountered to date. Copyright © 2007 Inderscience Enterprises Ltd.

Using a simulation model for knowledge elicitation and knowledge management

The work reported in this paper is part of a project simulating maintenance operations in an automotive engine production facility. The decisions made by the people in charge of these operations form a crucial element of this simulation. Eliciting this knowledge is problematic. One approach is to use the simulation model as part of the knowledge elicitation process. This paper reports on the experience so far with using a simulation model to support knowledge management in this way. Issues are discussed regarding the data available, the use of the model, and the elicitation process itself. © 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Simulation based knowledge elicitation:effect of visual representation and model parameters

Since much knowledge is tacit, eliciting knowledge is a common bottleneck during the development of knowledge-based systems. Visual interactive simulation (VIS) has been proposed as a means for eliciting experts’ decision-making by getting them to interact with a visual simulation of the real system in which they work. In order to explore the effectiveness and efficiency of VIS based knowledge elicitation, an experiment has been carried out with decision-makers in a Ford Motor Company engine assembly plant. The model properties under investigation were the level of visual representation (2-dimensional, 2½-dimensional and 3-dimensional) and the model parameter settings (unadjusted and adjusted to represent more uncommon and extreme situations). The conclusion from the experiment is that using a 2-dimensional representation with adjusted parameter settings provides the better simulation-based means for eliciting knowledge, at least for the case modelled.

Web based expert elicitation of uncertainties in environmental model inputs

When constructing and using environmental models, it is typical that many of the inputs to the models will not be known perfectly. In some cases, it will be possible to make observations, or occasionally physics-based uncertainty propagation, to ascertain the uncertainty on these inputs. However, such observations are often either not available or even possible, and another approach to characterising the uncertainty on the inputs must be sought. Even when observations are available, if the analysis is being carried out within a Bayesian framework then prior distributions will have to be specified. One option for gathering or at least estimating this information is to employ expert elicitation. Expert elicitation is well studied within statistics and psychology and involves the assessment of the beliefs of a group of experts about an uncertain quantity, (for example an input / parameter within a model), typically in terms of obtaining a probability distribution. One of the challenges in expert elicitation is to minimise the biases that might enter into the judgements made by the individual experts, and then to come to a consensus decision within the group of experts. Effort is made in the elicitation exercise to prevent biases clouding the judgements through well-devised questioning schemes. It is also important that, when reaching a consensus, the experts are exposed to the knowledge of the others in the group. Within the FP7 UncertWeb project (http://www.uncertweb.org/), there is a requirement to build a Webbased tool for expert elicitation. In this paper, we discuss some of the issues of building a Web-based elicitation system - both the technological aspects and the statistical and scientific issues. In particular, we demonstrate two tools: a Web-based system for the elicitation of continuous random variables and a system designed to elicit uncertainty about categorical random variables in the setting of landcover classification uncertainty. The first of these examples is a generic tool developed to elicit uncertainty about univariate continuous random variables. It is designed to be used within an application context and extends the existing SHELF method, adding a web interface and access to metadata. The tool is developed so that it can be readily integrated with environmental models exposed as web services. The second example was developed for the TREES-3 initiative which monitors tropical landcover change through ground-truthing at confluence points. It allows experts to validate the accuracy of automated landcover classifications using site-specific imagery and local knowledge. Experts may provide uncertainty information at various levels: from a general rating of their confidence in a site validation to a numerical ranking of the possible landcover types within a segment. A key challenge in the web based setting is the design of the user interface and the method of interacting between the problem owner and the problem experts. We show the workflow of the elicitation tool, and show how we can represent the final elicited distributions and confusion matrices using UncertML, ready for integration into uncertainty enabled workflows.We also show how the metadata associated with the elicitation exercise is captured and can be referenced from the elicited result, providing crucial lineage information and thus traceability in the decision making process.

Plant ecology of lowland Alnus Glutinosa woodlands:The management implications of species composition, requirements and distribution

Wet woodlands have been recognised as a priority habitat and have featured in the UK BAP since 1994. Although this has been acknowledged in a number of UK policies and guidelines, there is little information relating to their detailed ecology and management. This research, focusing on lowland Alnus glutinosa woodlands, aimed to address this data paucity through the analysis of species requirements and to develop a methodology to guide appropriate management for this habitat for the benefit of wildlife. To achieve these aims data were collected from 64 lowland Alnus glutinosa woodlands and a review of the literature was undertaken to identify species associated with the target habitat. The groundflora species found to be associated with lowland Alnus glutinosa woodland were assessed in relation to their optimal environmental conditions (Ellenberg indicator values) and survival strategies (Grime CSR-Strategy) to determine the characteristics (Characters of a Habitat; CoaHs) and range of intra-site conditions (Niches of a Habitat; NoaH). The methodologies, using CSR and Ellenberg indicator values in combination, were developed to determine NoaHs and were tested both quantitatively and qualitatively at different lowland Alnus glutinosa sites. The existence of CoaHs and NoaHs in actual sites was verified by detailed quadrat data gathered at three Alnus glutinosa woodlands at Stonebridge Meadows, Warwickshire, UK and analysed using TWINSPAN and DCA ordination. The CoaHs and NoaHs and their component species were confirmed to have the potential to occur in a particular woodland. Following a literature search relating to the management of small wet woodlands within the UK, in conjunction with the current research, broad principles and strategies were identified for the management of lowland Alnus glutinosa woodland. Using the groundflora composition, an innovative procedure is developed and described for identifying the potential variation within a particular site and determining its appropriate management. Case studies were undertaken on distinct woodlands and the methodology proved effective.

Polyunsaturated fatty acid requirements of murine colon adenocarcinomas

The polyunsaturated fatty acid (PUFA) requirements of three transplantable murine colon adenocarcinomas, the MAC13, MAC16 and MAC26, were evaluated in vitro and in vivo. When serum concentrations became growth limiting in vitro, proliferation of the MAC13 and MAC26 cell lines was stimulated by linoleic acid (LA) at 18μM and arachidonic acid (AA) at 16 or 33μM respectively. This was not demonstrated by the MAC16 cell line. MAC13 and MAC26 cells were found to be biochemically fatty acid deficient as measured by the formation of Mead acid (20:3 n-9), but the MAC16 cells were not. In vivo the growth of the MAC26 tumour was stimulated by daily oral administration of LA between 0.4-2.0g/kg. There was a threshold value of 0.4g/kg for the stimulation of MAC26 tumour growth, above which there was no further increase in tumour growth, and below which no increase in tumour growth was observed. This increased tumour growth was due to the stimulation of tumour cell proliferation in all areas of the tumour, with no effect on the cell loss factor. The growth of the MAC13, MAC16, and MAC26 cell lines in vitro were more effectively inhibited by lipoxygenase (LO) inhibitors than the cyclooxygenase inhibitor indomethacin. The specific 5-LO inhibitor Zileuton and the leukotriene D4 antagonist L-660,711 were less effective inhibitors of MAC cell growth in vitro than the less specific LO inhibitors BWA4C, BWB70C and CV6504. Studies of the hyroxyeicosatetraenoic acids (HETEs) produced from exogenous AA in these cells, suggested that a balance of eicosanoids produced from 5-LO, 12-LO and 15-LO pathways was required for cell proliferation. In vivo BWA4C, BWB70C and CV6504 demonstrated antitumour action against the MAC26 tumour between 20-50mg/kg/day. CV6504 also inhibited the growth of the MAC 13 tumour in vivo with an optimal effect between 5-10mg/kg/day. The antitumour action against the MAC16 tumour was also accompanied by a reduction in the tumour-induced host body weight loss at 10-25mg/kg/day. The antitumour action of CV6504 in all three tumour models was partially reversed by daily oral administration of 1.0g/kg LA. Studies of the AA metabolism in tumour homogenates suggested that this profound antitumour action, against what are generally chemoresistant tumours, was due to inhibition of eicosanoid production through LO pathways. As a result of these studies, CV6504 has been proposed for stage I./II. clinical trials against pancreatic cancer by the Cancer Research Campaign. This will be the first LO inhibitor entering the clinic as a therapeutic agent.

Ecological studies on:(a) the use of colonisation samplers in relation to biological surveillance of river water quality (b) the requirements of freshwater gastropoda

Some of the factors affecting colonisation of a colonisation sampler, the Standard Aufwuchs Unit (S. Auf. U.) were investigated, namely immersion period, whether anchored on the bottom or suspended, and the influence of riffles. It was concluded that a four-week immersion period was best. S. Auf. U. anchored on the bottom collected both more taxa and individuals than suspended ones. Fewer taxa but more individuals colonised S. Auf. U. in the potamon zone compared to the rhithron zone with a consequent reduction in the values of pollution indexes and diversity. It was concluded that a completely different scoring system was necessary for lowland rivers. Macroinvertebrates colonising S. Auf. U. in simulated streams, lowland rivers and the R. Churnet reflected water quality. A variety of pollution and diversity indexes were applied to results from lowland river sites. Instead of these, it was recommended that an abbreviated species - relative abundance list be used to summarise biological data for use in lowland river surveillance. An intensive study of gastropod populations was made in simulated streams. Lynnaea peregra increased in abundance whereas Potamopyrgas jenkinsi decreased with increasing sewage effluent concentration. No clear-cut differences in reproduction were observed. The presence/absence of eight gastropod taxa was compared with concentrations of various pollutants in lowland rivers. On the basis of all field work it appeared that ammonia, nitrite, copper and zinc were the toxicants most likely to be detrimental to gastropods and that P. jenkinsi and Theodoxus fluviatilis were the least tolerant taxa. 96h acute toxicity tests of P. jenkinsi using ammonia and copper were carried out in a flow-through system after a variety of static range finding tests. P. jenkinsi was intolerant to both toxicants compared to reports on other taxa and the results suggested that these toxicants would affect distribution of this species in the field.

The interaction between master production scheduling and detailed capacity requirements planning : closing the loop in manufacturing resource planning (MRPII) systems

The widespread implementation of Manufacturing Resource Planning (MRPII) systems in this country and abroad and the reported dissatisfaction with their use formed the initial basis of this piece of research which concentrates on the fundamental theory and design of the Closed Loop MRPII system itself. The dissertation concentrates on two key aspects namely; how Master Production Scheduling is carried out in differing business environments and how well the `closing of the loop' operates by checking the capcity requirements of the different levels of plans within an organisation. The main hypothesis which is tested is that in U.K. manufacturing industry, resource checks are either not being carried out satisfactorily or they are not being fed back to the appropriate plan in a timely fashion. The research methodology employed involved initial detailed investigations into Master Scheduling and capacity planning in eight diverse manufacturing companies. This was followed by a nationwide survey of users in 349 companies, a survey of all the major suppliers of Production Management software in the U.K. and an analysis of the facilities offered by current software packages. The main conclusion which is drawn is that the hypothesis is proved in the majority of companies in that only just over 50% of companies are attempting Resource and Capacity Planning and only 20% are successfully feeding back CRP information to `close the loop'. Various causative factors are put forward and remedies are suggested.

Designing a safety management support system using open architecture databases: the requirements of information representation in the support of managers' risk-related decision-making

This research was conducted at the Space Research and Technology Centre o the European Space Agency at Noordvijk in the Netherlands. ESA is an international organisation that brings together a range of scientists, engineers and managers from 14 European member states. The motivation for the work was to enable decision-makers, in a culturally and technologically diverse organisation, to share information for the purpose of making decisions that are well informed about the risk-related aspects of the situations they seek to address. The research examined the use of decision support system DSS) technology to facilitate decision-making of this type. This involved identifying the technology available and its application to risk management. Decision-making is a complex activity that does not lend itself to exact measurement or precise understanding at a detailed level. In view of this, a prototype DSS was developed through which to understand the practical issues to be accommodated and to evaluate alternative approaches to supporting decision-making of this type. The problem of measuring the effect upon the quality of decisions has been approached through expert evaluation of the software developed. The practical orientation of this work was informed by a review of the relevant literature in decision-making, risk management, decision support and information technology. Communication and information technology unite the major the,es of this work. This allows correlation of the interests of the research with European public policy. The principles of communication were also considered in the topic of information visualisation - this emerging technology exploits flexible modes of human computer interaction (HCI) to improve the cognition of complex data. Risk management is itself an area characterised by complexity and risk visualisation is advocated for application in this field of endeavour. The thesis provides recommendations for future work in the fields of decision=making, DSS technology and risk management.

The role and training requirements of scaffolders with regard to access scaffolding safety

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Maintenance of communication in primary classrooms : some evidence for the role of elicitation and code-switching in English medium schools in Kenya, with implications for teaching

This is a study of specific aspects of classroom interaction primary school level in Kenya. The study entailed the identification of the sources of particular communication problems during the change-over period from Kiswahili to English medium teaching in two primary schools. There was subsequently an examination of the language resources which were employed by teachers to maintain pupil participation in communication in the light of the occurrence of possibility of occurrence of specific communication problems. The language resources which were found to be significant in this regard concerned firstly the use of different elicitation types by teachers to stimulate pupils into giving responses and secondly teachers' recourse to code-switching from English to Kiswahili and vice-versa. It was also found in this study that although the use of English as the medium of instruction in the classrooms which were observed resulted in certain communication problems, some of these problems need not have arisen if teachers had been more careful in their use of language. The consideration of this finding, after taking into account the role of different elicitation types and code-switching as interpretable from data samples had certain implications which are specified in the study for teaching in Kenyan primary schools. The corpus for the study consisted of audio-recordings of English, Science and Number-Work lessons which were later transcribed. Relevant data samples were subsequently extracted from transcripts for analysis. Many of the samples have examples of cases of communication breakdowns, but they also illustrate how teachers maintained interaction with pupils who had yet to acquire an operational mastery of English. This study thus differs from most studies on classroom interaction because of its basic concern with the examination of the resources available to teachers for overcoming the problem areas of classroom communication.