26 resultados para Reliability, Failure Distribution Function, Hazard Rate, Exponential Distribution

em Aston University Research Archive


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Proper maintenance of plant items is crucial for the safe and profitable operation of process plants, The relevant maintenance policies fall into the following four categories: (i) preventivejopportunistic/breakdown replacement policies, (ii) inspection/inspection-repair-replacernent policies, (iii) restorative maintenance policies, and (iv) condition based maintenance policies, For correlating failure times of component equipnent and complete systems, the Weibull failure distribution has been used, A new powerful method, SEQLIM, has been proposed for the estimation of the Weibull parameters; particularly, when maintenance records contain very few failures and many successful operation times. When a system consists of a number of replaceable, ageing components, an opporturistic replacernent policy has been found to be cost-effective, A simple opportunistic rrodel has been developed. Inspection models with various objective functions have been investigated, It was found that, on the assumption of a negative exponential failure distribution, all models converge to the same optimal inspection interval; provided the safety components are very reliable and the demand rate is low, When deterioration becomes a contributory factor to same failures, periodic inspections, calculated from above models, are too frequent, A case of safety trip systems has been studied, A highly effective restorative maintenance policy can be developed if the performance of the equipment under this category can be related to some predictive modelling. A novel fouling model has been proposed to determine cleaning strategies of condensers, Condition-based maintenance policies have been investigated. A simple gauge has been designed for condition monitoring of relief valve springs. A typical case of an exothermic inert gas generation plant has been studied, to demonstrate how various policies can be applied to devise overall maintenance actions.

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The study developed statistical techniques to evaluate visual field progression for use with the Humphrey Field Analyzer (HFA). The long-term fluctuation (LF) was evaluated in stable glaucoma. The magnitude of both LF components showed little relationship with MD, CPSD and SF. An algorithm was proposed for determining the clinical necessity for a confirmatory follow-up examination. The between-examination variability was determined for the HFA Standard and FASTPAC algorithms in glaucoma. FASTPAC exhibited greater between-examination variability than the Standard algorithm across the range of sensitivities and with increasing eccentricity. The difference in variability between the algorithms had minimal clinical significance. The effect of repositioning the baseline in the Glaucoma Change Probability Analysis (GCPA) was evaluated. The global baseline of the GCPA limited the detection of progressive change at a single stimulus location. A new technique, pointwise univariate linear regressions (ULR), of absolute sensitivity and, of pattern deviation, against time to follow-up was developed. In each case, pointwise ULR was more sensitive to localised progressive changes in sensitivity than ULR of MD, alone. Small changes in sensitivity were more readily determined by the pointwise ULR than by the GCPA. A comparison between the outcome of pointwise ULR for all fields and for the last six fields manifested linear and curvilinear declines in the absolute sensitivity and the pattern deviation. A method for delineating progressive loss in glaucoma, based upon the error in the forecasted sensitivity of a multivariate model, was developed. Multivariate forecasting exhibited little agreement with GCPA in glaucoma but showed promise for monitoring visual field progression in OHT patients. The recovery of sensitivity in optic neuritis over time was modelled with a Cumulative Gaussian function. The rate and level of recovery was greater in the peripheral than the central field. Probability models to forecast the field of recovery were proposed.

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This work is concerned with a study of certain phenomena related to the performance and design of distributors in gas fluidized beds with particular regard to flowback of solid particles. The work to be described is divided into two parts. I. In Part one, a review of published material pertaining to distribution plates, including details from the patent specifications, has been prepared. After a chapter on the determination of the incipient fluidizing velocity, the following aspects of multi-orifice distributor plates in gas fluidized beds have been studied: (i) The effect of the distributor on bubble formation related to the way in which even distribution of bubbles on the top surface of the fluidized bed is obtained, e.g. the desirable pressure drop ratio ?PD/?PB for the even distribution of gas across the bed. Ratios of distributor pressure drop ?PD to bed pressure drop at which stable fluidization occurs show reasonable agreement with industrial practice. There is evidence that larger diameter beds tend to be less stable than smaller diameter beds when these are operated with shallow beds. Experiments show that in the presence of the bed the distributor pressure drop is reduced relative to the pressure drop without the bed, and this pressure drop in the former condition is regarded as the appropriate parameter for the design of the distributor. (ii) Experimental measurements of bubble distribution at the surface has been used to indicate maldistribution within the bed. Maldistribution is more likely at low gas flow rates and with distributors having large fractional free area characteristics (i.e. with distributors having low pressure drops). Bubble sizes obtained from this study, as well as those of others, have been successfully correlated. The correlation produced implies the existence of a bubble at the surface of an orifice and its growth by the addition of excess gas from the fluidized bed. (iii) For a given solid system, the amount of defluidized particles stagnating on the distributor plate is influenced by the orifice spacing, bed diameter and gas flow rate, but independent of the initial bed height and the way the orifices are arranged on the distributor plate. II. In Part two, solids flowback through single and multi-orifice distributors in two-dimensional and cylindrical beds of solids fluidized with air has been investigated. Distributors equipped with long cylindrical nozzles have also been included in the study. An equation for the prediction of free flowback of solids through multi-orifice distributors has been derived. Under fluidized conditions two regimes of flowback have been differentiated, namely Jumping and weeping. Data in the weeping regime have been successfully correlated. The limiting gas velocity through the distributor orifices at which flowback is completely excluded is found to be indepnndent of bed height, but a function of distributor design and physical properties of gas and solid used. A criterion for the prediction of this velocity has been established. The decisive advantage of increasing the distributor thickness or using nozzles to minimize solids flowback in fluidized beds has been observed and the opportunity taken to explore this poorly studied subject area. It has been noted, probably for the first time, that with long nozzles, there exists a critical nozzle length above which uncontrollable downflow of solids occurs. A theoretical model for predicting the critical length of a bundle of nozzles in terms of gas velocity through the nozzles has been set up. Theoretical calculations compared favourably with experiments.

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An experimental method for characterizing the time-resolved phase noise of a fast switching tunable laser is discussed. The method experimentally determines a complementary cumulative distribution function of the laser's differential phase as a function of time after a switching event. A time resolved bit error rate of differential quadrature phase shift keying formatted data, calculated using the phase noise measurements, was fitted to an experimental time-resolved bit error rate measurement using a field programmable gate array, finding a good agreement between the time-resolved bit error rates.

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Aims - To characterize the population pharmacokinetics of ranitidine in critically ill children and to determine the influence of various clinical and demographic factors on its disposition. Methods - Data were collected prospectively from 78 paediatric patients (n = 248 plasma samples) who received oral or intravenous ranitidine for prophylaxis against stress ulcers, gastrointestinal bleeding or the treatment of gastro-oesophageal reflux. Plasma samples were analysed using high-performance liquid chromatography, and the data were subjected to population pharmacokinetic analysis using nonlinear mixed-effects modelling. Results - A one-compartment model best described the plasma concentration profile, with an exponential structure for interindividual errors and a proportional structure for intra-individual error. After backward stepwise elimination, the final model showed a significant decrease in objective function value (−12.618; P < 0.001) compared with the weight-corrected base model. Final parameter estimates for the population were 32.1 l h−1 for total clearance and 285 l for volume of distribution, both allometrically modelled for a 70 kg adult. Final estimates for absorption rate constant and bioavailability were 1.31 h−1 and 27.5%, respectively. No significant relationship was found between age and weight-corrected ranitidine pharmacokinetic parameters in the final model, with the covariate for cardiac failure or surgery being shown to reduce clearance significantly by a factor of 0.46. Conclusions - Currently, ranitidine dose recommendations are based on children's weights. However, our findings suggest that a dosing scheme that takes into consideration both weight and cardiac failure/surgery would be more appropriate in order to avoid administration of higher or more frequent doses than necessary.

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The distribution of the secret key is the weakest link of many data encryption systems. Quantum key distribution (QKD) schemes provide attractive solutions [1], however their implementation remains challenging and their range and bit-rate are limited. Moreover, practical QKD systems, employ real-life components and are, therefore, vulnerable to diverse attack schemes [2]. Ultra-Long fiber lasers (UFLs) have been drawing much attention recently because of their fundamentally different properties compared to conventional lasers as well as their unique applications [3]. Here, we demonstrate a 100Bps, practically secure key distribution, over a 500km link, employing Raman gain UFL. Fig. 1(a) depicts a schematic of the UFL system. Each user has an identical set of two wavelength selective mirrors centered at l0 and l 1. In order to exchange a key-bit, each user independently choose one of these mirrors and introduces it as a laser reflector at their end. If both users choose identical mirrors, a clear signal develops and the bits in these cases are discarded. However if they choose complementary mirrors, (1, 0 or 0, 1 states), the UFL remains below lasing threshold and no signal evolves. In these cases, an eavesdropper can only detect noise and is unable to determine the mirror choice of the users, where the choice of mirrors represent a single key bit (e.g. Alice's choice of mirror is the key-bit). These bits are kept and added to the key. The absence of signal in the secure states faxilitates fast measurements to distinguish between the non-secure and the secure states and to determine the key-bit in the later case, Sequentially reapeating the single bit exchange protocol generate the entire keys of any desirable length. © 2013 IEEE.

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Electronic information tools have become increasingly popular with channel manufacturers in their efforts to manage resellers. Although these tools have been found to increase the efficiency of communications, researchers and practitioners alike have questioned their effectiveness. To investigate how top-down electronic information affects social channel relationships we consider the use of such tools in information technology distribution channels. Using electronic communications theory and channel governance theory we hypothesize that the usefulness of the tools is a function of the type of information inherent in each tool (demand creation information or supply fulfillment information) and the particular communications characteristics of this information.

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A framework that connects computational mechanics and molecular dynamics has been developed and described. As the key parts of the framework, the problem of symbolising molecular trajectory and the associated interrelation between microscopic phase space variables and macroscopic observables of the molecular system are considered. Following Shalizi and Moore, it is shown that causal states, the constituent parts of the main construct of computational mechanics, the e-machine, define areas of the phase space that are optimal in the sense of transferring information from the micro-variables to the macro-observables. We have demonstrated that, based on the decay of their Poincare´ return times, these areas can be divided into two classes that characterise the separation of the phase space into resonant and chaotic areas. The first class is characterised by predominantly short time returns, typical to quasi-periodic or periodic trajectories. This class includes a countable number of areas corresponding to resonances. The second class includes trajectories with chaotic behaviour characterised by the exponential decay of return times in accordance with the Poincare´ theorem.

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Numerous senile plaques are one of the most characteristic histological findings in SDAT brains. Large classical plaques may develop from smaller uncored forms. There is no strong evidence that, once formed, plaques disappear from the tissue. We have examined cresyl-violet stained sections of the parahippocampal gyrus (PHG), hippocampus, frontal lobe and temporal lobe of five SDAT patients. The frequency of various sizes of plaques were determined in each of these brain regions. Statistical analysis showed that the ratio of large plaques to small plaques was greater in the hippocampal formation (especially the PHG) than in the neocortex. One explanation of these results is that plaques grow more rapidly in the hippocampal formation than elsewhere. Alternatively, if the rate of plaque growth is much the same in different brain regions, the data suggest that plaques develop first in the hippocampal formation (especially the PHG) and only later spread to the neocortex. This interpretation is also consistent with the theory that the neuropathology of SDAT spreads from the olfactory cortex via the hippocampal formation to the neocortex. Further development of this technique may help identify the site of the primary lesion in SDAT.

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Alzheimer’s disease (AD) is an important neurodegenerative disorder causing visual problems in the elderly population. The pathology of AD includes the deposition in the brain of abnormal aggregates of ?-amyloid (A?) in the form of senile plaques (SP) and abnormally phosphorylated tau in the form of neurofibrillary tangles (NFT). A variety of visual problems have been reported in patients with AD including loss of visual acuity (VA), colour vision and visual fields; changes in pupillary responses to mydriatics, defects in fixation and in smooth and saccadic eye movements; changes in contrast sensitivity and in visual evoked potentials (VEP); and disturbances in complex visual tasks such as reading, visuospatial function, and in the naming and identification of objects. In addition, pathological changes have been observed to affect the eye, visual pathway, and visual cortex in AD. To better understand degeneration of the visual cortex in AD, the laminar distribution of the SP and NFT was studied in visual areas V1 and V2 in 18 cases of AD which varied in disease onset and duration. In area V1, the mean density of SP and NFT reached a maximum in lamina III and in laminae II and III respectively. In V2, mean SP density was maximal in laminae III and IV and NFT density in laminae II and III. The densities of SP in laminae I of V1 and NFT in lamina IV of V2 were negatively correlated with patient age. No significant correlations were observed in any cortical lamina between the density of NFT and disease onset or duration. However, in area V2, the densities of SP in lamina II and lamina V were negatively correlated with disease duration and disease onset respectively. In addition, there were several positive correlations between the densities of SP and NFT in V1 with those in area V2. The data suggest: (1) NFT pathology is greater in area V2 than V1, (2) laminae II/III of V1 and V2 are most affected by the pathology, (3) the formation of SP and NFT in V1 and V2 are interconnected, and (4) the pathology may spread between visual areas via the feed-forward short cortico-cortical connections.

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The atomic-scale structure of Bioglass and the effect of substituting lithium for sodium within these glasses have been investigated using neutron diffraction and solid state magic angle spinning (MAS) NMR. Applying an effective isomorphic substitution difference function to the neutron diffraction data has enabled the Na-O and Li-O nearest-neighbour correlations to be isolated from the overlapping Ca-O, O-(P)-O and O-(Si)-O correlations. These results reveal that Na and Li behave in a similar manner within the glassy matrix and do not disrupt the short range order of the network former. Residual differences are attributed solely to the variation in ionic radius between the two species. Successful simplification of the 2

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The size frequency distributions of discrete β-amyloid (Aβ) deposits were studied in single sections of the temporal lobe from patients with Alzheimer's disease. The size distributions were unimodal and positively skewed. In 18/25 (72%) tissues examined, a log normal distribution was a good fit to the data. This suggests that the abundances of deposit sizes are distributed randomly on a log scale about a mean value. Three hypotheses were proposed to account for the data: (1) sectioning in a single plane, (2) growth and disappearance of Aβ deposits, and (3) the origin of Aβ deposits from clusters of neuronal cell bodies. Size distributions obtained by serial reconstruction through the tissue were similar to those observed in single sections, which would not support the first hypothesis. The log normal distribution of Aβ deposit size suggests a model in which the rate of growth of a deposit is proportional to its volume. However, mean deposit size and the ratio of large to small deposits were not positively correlated with patient age or disease duration. The frequency distribution of Aβ deposits which were closely associated with 0, 1, 2, 3, or more neuronal cell bodies deviated significantly from a log normal distribution, which would not support the neuronal origin hypothesis. On the basis of the present data, growth and resolution of Aβ deposits would appear to be the most likely explanation for the log normal size distributions.

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The factors determining the size of individual β-amyloid (A,8) deposits and their size frequency distribution in tissue from Alzheimer's disease (AD) patients have not been established. In 23/25 cortical tissues from 10 AD patients, the frequency of Aβ deposits declined exponentially with increasing size. In a random sample of 400 Aβ deposits, 88% were closely associated with one or more neuronal cell bodies. The frequency distribution of (Aβ) deposits which were associated with 0,1,2,...,n neuronal cell bodies deviated significantly from a Poisson distribution, suggesting a degree of clustering of the neuronal cell bodies. In addition, the frequency of Aβ deposits declined exponentially as the number of associated neuronal cell bodies increased. Aβ deposit area was positively correlated with the frequency of associated neuronal cell bodies, the degree of correlation being greater for pyramidal cells than smaller neurons. These data suggested: (1) the number of closely adjacent neuronal cell bodies which simultaneously secrete Aβ was an important factor determining the size of an Aβ deposit and (2) the exponential decline in larger Aβ deposits reflects the low probability that larger numbers of adjacent neurons will secrete Aβ simultaneously to form a deposit. © 1995.

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Strontium has been substituted for calcium in the glass series (SiO2)49.46(Na2O)26.38(P2O5)1.07(CaO)23.08x(SrO)x (where x = 0, 11.54, 23.08) to elucidate their underlying atomic-scale structural characteristics as a basis for understanding features related to the bioactivity. These bioactive glasses have been investigated using isomorphic neutron and X-ray diffraction, Sr K-edge EXAFS and solid state 17O, 23Na, 29Si, 31P and 43Ca magic-angle-spinning (MAS) NMR. An effective isomorphic substitution first-order difference function has been applied to the neutron diffraction data, confirming that Ca and Sr behave in a similar manner within the glass network, with residual differences attributed to solely the variation in ionic radius between the two species. The diffraction data provides the first direct experimental evidence of split Ca–O nearest-neighbour correlations in these melt quench bioactive glasses, together with an analogous splitting of the Sr–O correlations; the correlations are attributed to the metal ions correlated either to bridging or to non-bridging oxygen atoms. Triple quantum (3Q) 43Ca MAS NMR corroborates the split Ca–O correlations. Successful simplification of the 2 < r (A) < 3 region via the difference method has also revealed two distinct Na environments. These environments are attributed to sodium correlated either to bridging or to nonbridging oxygen atoms. Complementary multinuclear MAS NMR, Sr K-edge EXAFS and X-ray diffraction data supports the structural model presented. The structural sites present will be intimately related to their release properties in physiological fluids such as plasma and saliva, and hence the bioactivity of the material. Detailed structural knowledge is therefore a prerequisite for optimising material design.

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We obtain the exact asymptotic result for the disorder-averaged probability distribution function for a random walk in a biased Sinai model and show that it is characterized by a creeping behavior of the displacement moments with time, similar to v(mu n), where mu <1 is dimensionless mean drift. We employ a method originated in quantum diffusion which is based on the exact mapping of the problem to an imaginary-time Schrodinger equation. For nonzero drift such an equation has an isolated lowest eigenvalue separated by a gap from quasicontinuous excited states, and the eigenstate corresponding to the former governs the long-time asymptotic behavior.