Modelling foreign direct investment in China

This thesis consists of three empirical and one theoretical studies. While China has received an increasing amount of foreign direct investment (FDI) and become the second largest host country for FDI in recent years, the absence of comprehensive studies on FDI inflows into this country drives this research. In the first study, an econometric model is developed to analyse the economic, political, cultural and geographic determinants of both pledged and realised FDI in China. The results of this study suggest that China's relatively cheaper labour force, high degree of international integration with the outside world (represented by its exports and imports) and bilateral exchange rates are the important economic determinants of both pledged FDI and realised FDI in China. The second study analyses the regional distribution of both pledged and realised FDI within China. The econometric properties of the panel data set are examined using a standardised 't-bar' test. The empirical results indicate that provinces with higher level of international trade, lower wage rates, more R&D manpower, more preferential policies and closer ethnic links with overseas Chinese attract relatively more FDI. The third study constructs a dynamic equilibrium model to study the interactions among FDI, knowledge spillovers and long run economic growth in a developing country. The ideas of endogenous product cycles and trade-related international knowledge spillovers are modified and extended to FDI. The major conclusion is that, in the presence of FDI, economic growth is determined by the stock of human capital, the subjective discount rate and knowledge gap, while unskilled labour can not sustain growth. In the fourth study, the role of FDI in the growth process of the Chinese economy is investigated by using a panel of data for 27 provinces across China between 1986 and 1995. In addition to FDI, domestic R&D expenditure, international trade and human capital are added to the standard convergence regressions to control for different structural characteristics in each province. The empirical results support endogenous innovation growth theory in which regional per capita income can converge given technological diffusion, transfer and imitation.

Are there two distinct populations of cored senile plaques in senile dementia of the Alzheimer type?

The relationship between plaque diameter (PD) and core diameter (CD) was studied in four brains from each of four SDAT brains. The regions studied were parahippocampal gyrus (PHG), hippocampus, frontal and inferior temporal lobes. The largest diameters of 100 cored classical plaques and their cores were measured. CD was positively correlated with PD (Pearson's 'r' 0.4 - 0.95) in all region studied. Significant linear regressions of CD on PD with positive slopes (0.10 - 0.65) were found. Two distinct types of regression were found. Type A had a steep slope and a negative intercept on the ordinate whereas Type B had a shallow slope and a positive intercept. Both types can be found within the same brain but Type A or B predominate in a particular tissue. The data suggest that core development may occur either early or late in the development of the plaque. The two types of plaque may thus have different aetiologies. Such an interpretation is consistent with current ideas of plaque formation.

Egg quality and fecundity in rainbow trout: the determining factors and mechanisms of control

This thesis considers the factors involved in the determination of egg quality and fecundity in farmed stocks of rainbow trout ( Salmo gairdneri R) • Measurements of egg quality, ie. percentage survivals of eggs and fry, from the production batches of eggs of seven fish farms, showed mean survivals of 70% to eying but levels of only 35% to 4.5g fry (approx. 130 days post-fertilisation). Under optimum conditions survivals may reach 85% suggesting that husbandry methods exert significant influences on egg quality. Chemical analyses of the protein, fat, vitellogenin, ash, amino acids, free fatty acid and mineral levels of eggs of varying quality and from parents of different strains showed compositional differences even between individuals of the same stock. However, none of these differences were correlated with egg quality. Egg size showed similar variations but, again under hatchery conditions there was no correlation with differences in egg quality. The only factor which has been shown to exert a significant influence on egg quality is the time of stripping after ovulation. At 1 0°C eggs should be removed from gravid females within ten days of ovulation to achieve optimum egg and fry survival. Studies of egg production from approximately 10,000 broodstock revealed that total fecundity and egg size increased and relative fecundity decreased with increasing fish size. In general, most fish appeared to produce a constant volume of eggs. This is consistent with a hypothesis that egg size can only be increased by parallel reductions in fecundity. Feeding broodstock at half-ration (0.35% body weight day- 1 ) did not affect egg quality but reduced total fecundity and egg size and increased relative fecundity when compared with eggs produced by fish on full-ration. Comparisons of regressions of total fecundity against fish weight for three strains using ANOCO revealed that one strain was significantly more fecund than two other strains considered. Trout of the same strain maintained on different farms behaved similarly suggesting there was some reproducibility of strain characteristics.

Pricing-to-market for UK export sector

This thesis investigates the pricing-to-market (PTM) behaviour of the UK export sector. Unlike previous studies, this study econometrically tests for seasonal unit roots in the export prices prior to estimating PTM behaviour. Prior studies have seasonally adjusted the data automatically. This study’s results show that monthly export prices contain very little seasonal unit roots implying that there is a loss of information in the data generating process of the series when estimating PTM using seasonally-adjusted data. Prior studies have also ignored the econometric properties of the data despite the existence of ARCH effects in such data. The standard approach has been to estimate PTM models using Ordinary Least Square (OLS). For this reason, both EGARCH and GJR-EGARCH (hereafter GJR) estimation methods are used to estimate both a standard and an Error Correction model (ECM) of PTM. The results indicate that PTM behaviour varies across UK sectors. The variables used in the PTM models are co-integrated and an ECM is a valid representation of pricing behaviour. The study also finds that the price adjustment is slower when the analysis is performed on real prices, i.e., data that are adjusted for inflation. There is strong evidence of auto-regressive condition heteroscedasticity (ARCH) effects – meaning that the PTM parameter estimates of prior studies have been ineffectively estimated. Surprisingly, there is very little evidence of asymmetry. This suggests that exporters appear to PTM at a relatively constant rate. This finding might also explain the failure of prior studies to find evidence of asymmetric exposure in foreign exchange (FX) rates. This study also provides a cross sectional analysis to explain the implications of the observed PTM of producers’ marginal cost, market share and product differentiation. The cross-sectional regressions are estimated using OLS, Generalised Method of Moment (GMM) and Logit estimations. Overall, the results suggest that market share affects PTM positively.Exporters with smaller market share are more likely to operate PTM. Alternatively, product differentiation is negatively associated with PTM. So industries with highly differentiated products are less likely to adjust their prices. However, marginal costs seem not to be significantly associated with PTM. Exporters perform PTM to limit the FX rate effect pass-through to their foreign customers, but they also avoided exploiting PTM to the full, since to do so can substantially reduce their profits.

Identification of visual field progression

The study developed statistical techniques to evaluate visual field progression for use with the Humphrey Field Analyzer (HFA). The long-term fluctuation (LF) was evaluated in stable glaucoma. The magnitude of both LF components showed little relationship with MD, CPSD and SF. An algorithm was proposed for determining the clinical necessity for a confirmatory follow-up examination. The between-examination variability was determined for the HFA Standard and FASTPAC algorithms in glaucoma. FASTPAC exhibited greater between-examination variability than the Standard algorithm across the range of sensitivities and with increasing eccentricity. The difference in variability between the algorithms had minimal clinical significance. The effect of repositioning the baseline in the Glaucoma Change Probability Analysis (GCPA) was evaluated. The global baseline of the GCPA limited the detection of progressive change at a single stimulus location. A new technique, pointwise univariate linear regressions (ULR), of absolute sensitivity and, of pattern deviation, against time to follow-up was developed. In each case, pointwise ULR was more sensitive to localised progressive changes in sensitivity than ULR of MD, alone. Small changes in sensitivity were more readily determined by the pointwise ULR than by the GCPA. A comparison between the outcome of pointwise ULR for all fields and for the last six fields manifested linear and curvilinear declines in the absolute sensitivity and the pattern deviation. A method for delineating progressive loss in glaucoma, based upon the error in the forecasted sensitivity of a multivariate model, was developed. Multivariate forecasting exhibited little agreement with GCPA in glaucoma but showed promise for monitoring visual field progression in OHT patients. The recovery of sensitivity in optic neuritis over time was modelled with a Cumulative Gaussian function. The rate and level of recovery was greater in the peripheral than the central field. Probability models to forecast the field of recovery were proposed.

Determination of muscle fatigue in clinical practices using dynamically embedded signals

This paper explores a new method of analysing muscle fatigue within the muscles predominantly used during microsurgery. The captured electromyographic (EMG) data retrieved from these muscles are analysed for any defining patterns relating to muscle fatigue. The analysis consists of dynamically embedding the EMG signals from a single muscle channel into an embedded matrix. The muscle fatigue is determined by defining its entropy characterized by the singular values of the dynamically embedded (DE) matrix. The paper compares this new method with the traditional method of using mean frequency shifts in the EMG signal's power spectral density. Linear regressions are fitted to the results from both methods, and the coefficients of variation of both their slope and point of intercept are determined. It is shown that the complexity method is slightly more robust in that the coefficient of variation for the DE method has lower variability than the conventional method of mean frequency analysis.

Entrepreneurship and welfare

Here, I examine returns to entrepreneurship using a standard measure of welfare, the per-capita consumption expenditure. This analysis, using quantile regressions, reveals the existence of a welfare hierarchy in occupations. The results suggest that, across the welfare distribution, entrepreneurs who employ others have the highest returns in terms of consumption, while those entrepreneurs who work for themselves, that is, self-employed individuals, have slightly lower returns than the salaried employees. However, self-employment entails higher returns than casual labor and a relative escape from poverty.

Multinationality-performance relationship:a meta-analysis

- We conduct a Meta-analysis of 54 papers that study the relationship between multinationality and firm performance. The aim is to understand if any systematic relationships exist between the characteristics of each study and the reported results of linear and curvilinear regressions to examine the multinationality-performance relationship. - Our main finding, robust to different specifications and to different weights for each observation, is that when analysis is based on non-US data, the reported return to multinationality is higher. However, this relationship for non-US firms is usually U-shaped rather than inverted U-shaped. This indicates that US firms face lower returns to internationalization than other firms but are less likely to incur losses in the early stages of internationalization. - The findings also highlight the differences that are reported when comparing regression and non-regression based techniques. Our results suggest that in this area regression based analysis is more reliable than say ANOVA or other related approaches. - Other characteristics that influence the estimated rate of return and its shape across different studies are: the measure of multinationality used; size distribution of the sample; and the use of market-based indicators to measure firm performance. Finally, we find no evidence of publication bias.

The Maudsley Early Onset Schizophrenia Study:The effect of age of onset and illness duration on fronto-parietal gray matter

Objective: In Early Onset Schizophrenia (EOS; onset before the 18th birthday) late brain maturational changes may interact with disease mechanisms leading to a wave of back to front structural changes during adolescence. To further explore this effect we examined the relationship between age of onset and duration of illness on brain morphology in adolescents with EOS. Subjects and methods: Structural brain magnetic resonance imaging scans were obtained from 40 adolescents with EOS. We used Voxel Based Morphometry and multiple regressions analyses, implemented in SPM, to examine the relationship between gray matter volume with age of onset and illness duration. Results: Age of onset showed a positive correlation with regional gray matter volume in the right superior parietal lobule (Brodmann Area 7). Duration of illness was inversely related to regional gray matter volume in the left inferior frontal gyrus (BA 11/47). Conclusions: Parietal gray matter loss may contribute to the onset of schizophrenia while orbitofrontal gray matter loss is associated with illness duration. © 2008 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

Classical and technological convergence:beyond the Solow-Swann model

Recent investigations into cross-country convergence follow Mankiw, Romer, and Weil (1992) in using a log-linear approximation to the Swan-Solow growth model to specify regressions. These studies tend to assume a common and exogenous technology. In contrast, the technology catch-up literature endogenises the growth of technology. The use of capital stock data renders the approximations and over-identification of the Mankiw model unnecessary and enables us, using dynamic panel estimation, to estimate the separate contributions of diminishing returns and technology transfer to the rate of conditional convergence. We find that both effects are important.

A new algorithm for the relationship between vision and ametropia

Refraction simulators used for undergraduate training at Aston University did not realistically reflect variations in the relationship between vision and ametropia. This was because they used an algorithm, taken from the research literature, that strictly only applied to myopes or older hyperopes and did not factor in age and pupil diameter. The aim of this study was to generate new algorithms that overcame these limitations. Clinical data were collected from the healthy right eyes of 873 white subjects aged between 20 and 70 years. Vision and refractive error were recorded along with age and pupil diameter. Re-examination of 34 subjects enabled the calculation of coefficients of repeatability. The study population was slightly biased towards females and included many contact lens wearers. Sex and contact lens wear were, therefore, recorded in order to determine whether these might influence the findings. In addition, iris colour and cylinder axis orientation were recorded as these might also be influential. A novel Blur Sensitivity Ratio (BSR) was derived by dividing vision (expressed as minimum angle of resolution) by refractive error (expressed as a scalar vector, U). Alteration of the scalar vector, to account for additional vision reduction due to oblique cylinder axes, was not found to be useful. Decision tree analysis showed that sex, contact lens wear, iris colour and cylinder axis orientation did not influence the BSR. The following algorithms arose from two stepwise multiple linear regressions: BSR (myopes) = 1.13 + (0.24 x pupil diameter) + (0.14 x U) BSR (hyperopes) = (0.11 x pupil diameter) + (0.03 x age) - 0.22 These algorithms together accounted for 84% of the observed variance. They showed that pupil diameter influenced vision in both forms of ametropia. They also showed the age-related decline in the ability to accommodate in order to overcome reduced vision in hyperopia.

Are democratising countries ‘rewarded’ with higher levels of foreign aid?

The paper examines how flows of foreign aid have reacted to events of democratisation in developing countries. Using a panel dataset of 136 aid-receiving countries between 1980 and 2009, aid allocation regressions reveal that Western donors in general have tended to react to visible, major democratic transitions by increasing aid to the partner country, but no significant increases can be identified in the case of countries introducing smaller democratic reforms. The increases in aid flows are not sustained over time, implying that donors do not provide long-term support to nascent democracies. Also, democratisations in Sub-Saharan Africa do not seem to have been rewarded with higher levels of aid.

The influence on unaided vision of age, pupil diameter and spherocylindrical refractive error

Background - The aim was to derive equations for the relationship between unaided vision and age, pupil diameter, iris colour and sphero-cylindrical refractive error. Methods - Data were collected from 663 healthy right eyes of white subjects aged 20 to 70 years. Subjective sphero-cylindrical refractive errors ranged from -6.8 to +9.4 D (mean spherical equivalent), -1.5 to +1.9 D (orthogonal component, J0) and -0.8 to 1.0 D (oblique component, J45). Cylinder axis orientation was orthogonal in 46 per cent of the eyes and oblique in 18 per cent. Unaided vision (-0.3 to +1.3 logMAR), pupil diameter (2.3 to 7.5 mm) and iris colour (67 per cent light/blue irides) was recorded. The sample included mostly females (60 per cent) and many contact lens wearers (42 per cent) and so the influences of these parameters were also investigated. Results - Decision tree analysis showed that sex, iris colour, contact lens wear and cylinder axis orientation did not influence the relationship between unaided vision and refractive error. New equations for the dependence of the minimum angle of resolution on age and pupil diameter arose from step backwards multiple linear regressions carried out separately on the myopes (2.91.scalar vector +0.51.pupil diameter -3.14 ) and hyperopes (1.55.scalar vector + 0.06.age – 3.45 ). Conclusion - The new equations may be useful in simulators designed for teaching purposes as they accounted for 81 per cent (for myopes) and 53 per cent (for hyperopes) of the variance in measured data. In comparison, previously published equations accounted for not more than 76 per cent (for myopes) and 24 per cent (for hyperopes) of the variance depending on whether they included pupil size. The new equations are, as far as is known to the authors, the first to include age. The age-related decline in accommodation is reflected in the equation for hyperopes.

Investment liberalisation, technology take-off and export markets entry:does foreign ownership structure matter?

Before and after its accession to the WTO in 2001, China has undergone a far-reaching investment liberalisation. As part of this, existing restrictions on foreign ownership structure and mandatory export and technology transfer requirements imposed on foreign firms have been lifted in a number of industries. Against this background we identify the causal effects of foreign acquisitions on export market entry and technology take-off and evaluate whether the level of foreign ownership plays a role in stimulating these changes. Using doubly robust propensity score reweighted bivariate probit regressions to control for the selection bias associated with firm level foreign acquisition incidences, we uncover strong but heterogeneous positive effects on export activity for all types of foreign ownership structure. We also find that minority foreign owned acquisition targets experience higher likelihood of R&D, providing evidence that joint ventures can contribute positively to China's "science and technology take-off".

Assessing productive efficiency of banks using integrated Fuzzy-DEA and bootstrapping:a case of Mozambican banks

Performance analysis has become a vital part of the management practices in the banking industry. There are numerous applications using DEA models to estimate efficiency in banking, and most of them assume that inputs and outputs are known with absolute precision. Here, we propose new Fuzzy-DEA α-level models to assess underlying uncertainty. Further, bootstrap truncated regressions with fixed factors are used to measure the impact of each model on the efficiency scores and to identify the most relevant contextual variables on efficiency. The proposed models have been demonstrated using an application in Mozambican banks to handle the underlying uncertainty. Findings reveal that fuzziness is predominant over randomness in interpreting the results. In addition, fuzziness can be used by decision-makers to identify missing variables to help in interpreting the results. Price of labor, price of capital, and market-share were found to be the significant factors in measuring bank efficiency. Managerial implications are addressed.