Using non-parametric search algorithms to forecast daily excess stock returns

Are the learning procedures of genetic algorithms (GAs) able to generate optimal architectures for artificial neural networks (ANNs) in high frequency data? In this experimental study,GAs are used to identify the best architecture for ANNs. Additional learning is undertaken by the ANNs to forecast daily excess stock returns. No ANN architectures were able to outperform a random walk,despite the finding of non-linearity in the excess returns. This failure is attributed to the absence of suitable ANN structures and further implies that researchers need to be cautious when making inferences from ANN results that use high frequency data.

Palette-colouring: a belief propagation approach

We consider a variation of the prototype combinatorial optimization problem known as graph colouring. Our optimization goal is to colour the vertices of a graph with a fixed number of colours, in a way to maximize the number of different colours present in the set of nearest neighbours of each given vertex. This problem, which we pictorially call palette-colouring, has been recently addressed as a basic example of a problem arising in the context of distributed data storage. Even though it has not been proved to be NP-complete, random search algorithms find the problem hard to solve. Heuristics based on a naive belief propagation algorithm are observed to work quite well in certain conditions. In this paper, we build upon the mentioned result, working out the correct belief propagation algorithm, which needs to take into account the many-body nature of the constraints present in this problem. This method improves the naive belief propagation approach at the cost of increased computational effort. We also investigate the emergence of a satisfiable-to-unsatisfiable 'phase transition' as a function of the vertex mean degree, for different ensembles of sparse random graphs in the large size ('thermodynamic') limit.

A methodology for analysis and control of discrete event dynamic systems

The rapid developments in computer technology have resulted in a widespread use of discrete event dynamic systems (DEDSs). This type of system is complex because it exhibits properties such as concurrency, conflict and non-determinism. It is therefore important to model and analyse such systems before implementation to ensure safe, deadlock free and optimal operation. This thesis investigates current modelling techniques and describes Petri net theory in more detail. It reviews top down, bottom up and hybrid Petri net synthesis techniques that are used to model large systems and introduces on object oriented methodology to enable modelling of larger and more complex systems. Designs obtained by this methodology are modular, easy to understand and allow re-use of designs. Control is the next logical step in the design process. This thesis reviews recent developments in control DEDSs and investigates the use of Petri nets in the design of supervisory controllers. The scheduling of exclusive use of resources is investigated and an efficient Petri net based scheduling algorithm is designed and a re-configurable controller is proposed. To enable the analysis and control of large and complex DEDSs, an object oriented C++ software tool kit was developed and used to implement a Petri net analysis tool, Petri net scheduling and control algorithms. Finally, the methodology was applied to two industrial DEDSs: a prototype can sorting machine developed by Eurotherm Controls Ltd., and a semiconductor testing plant belonging to SGS Thomson Microelectronics Ltd.

Two-B or not two-B? Design patterns for hybrid metaheuristics

Real world search problems, characterised by nonlinearity, noise and multidimensionality, are often best solved by hybrid algorithms. Techniques embodying different necessary features are triggered at specific iterations, in response to the current state of the problem space. In the existing literature, this alternation is managed either statically (through pre-programmed policies) or dynamically, at the cost of high coupling with algorithm inner representation. We extract two design patterns for hybrid metaheuristic search algorithms, the All-Seeing Eye and the Commentator patterns, which we argue should be replaced by the more flexible and loosely coupled Simple Black Box (Two-B) and Utility-based Black Box (Three-B) patterns that we propose here. We recommend the Two-B pattern for purely fitness based hybridisations and the Three-B pattern for more generic search quality evaluation based hybridisations.

Component scheduling for chip shooter machines: a hybrid genetic algorithm approach

A chip shooter machine for electronic component assembly has a movable feeder carrier, a movable X–Y table carrying a printed circuit board (PCB), and a rotary turret with multiple assembly heads. This paper presents a hybrid genetic algorithm (HGA) to optimize the sequence of component placements and the arrangement of component types to feeders simultaneously for a chip shooter machine, that is, the component scheduling problem. The objective of the problem is to minimize the total assembly time. The GA developed in the paper hybridizes different search heuristics including the nearest-neighbor heuristic, the 2-opt heuristic, and an iterated swap procedure, which is a new improved heuristic. Compared with the results obtained by other researchers, the performance of the HGA is superior in terms of the assembly time. Scope and purpose When assembling the surface mount components on a PCB, it is necessary to obtain the optimal sequence of component placements and the best arrangement of component types to feeders simultaneously in order to minimize the total assembly time. Since it is very difficult to obtain the optimality, a GA hybridized with several search heuristics is developed. The type of machines being studied is the chip shooter machine. This paper compares the algorithm with a simple GA. It shows that the performance of the algorithm is superior to that of the simple GA in terms of the total assembly time.

Parallel Problem Solving from Nature – PPSN XIV:14th International Conference, Edinburgh, UK, September 17-21, 2016, Proceedings

This book constitutes the refereed proceedings of the 14th International Conference on Parallel Problem Solving from Nature, PPSN 2016, held in Edinburgh, UK, in September 2016. The total of 93 revised full papers were carefully reviewed and selected from 224 submissions. The meeting began with four workshops which offered an ideal opportunity to explore specific topics in intelligent transportation Workshop, landscape-aware heuristic search, natural computing in scheduling and timetabling, and advances in multi-modal optimization. PPSN XIV also included sixteen free tutorials to give us all the opportunity to learn about new aspects: gray box optimization in theory; theory of evolutionary computation; graph-based and cartesian genetic programming; theory of parallel evolutionary algorithms; promoting diversity in evolutionary optimization: why and how; evolutionary multi-objective optimization; intelligent systems for smart cities; advances on multi-modal optimization; evolutionary computation in cryptography; evolutionary robotics - a practical guide to experiment with real hardware; evolutionary algorithms and hyper-heuristics; a bridge between optimization over manifolds and evolutionary computation; implementing evolutionary algorithms in the cloud; the attainment function approach to performance evaluation in EMO; runtime analysis of evolutionary algorithms: basic introduction; meta-model assisted (evolutionary) optimization. The papers are organized in topical sections on adaption, self-adaption and parameter tuning; differential evolution and swarm intelligence; dynamic, uncertain and constrained environments; genetic programming; multi-objective, many-objective and multi-level optimization; parallel algorithms and hardware issues; real-word applications and modeling; theory; diversity and landscape analysis.

A comparative evaluation of term recognition algorithms

Automatic Term Recognition (ATR) is a fundamental processing step preceding more complex tasks such as semantic search and ontology learning. From a large number of methodologies available in the literature only a few are able to handle both single and multi-word terms. In this paper we present a comparison of five such algorithms and propose a combined approach using a voting mechanism. We evaluated the six approaches using two different corpora and show how the voting algorithm performs best on one corpus (a collection of texts from Wikipedia) and less well using the Genia corpus (a standard life science corpus). This indicates that choice and design of corpus has a major impact on the evaluation of term recognition algorithms. Our experiments also showed that single-word terms can be equally important and occupy a fairly large proportion in certain domains. As a result, algorithms that ignore single-word terms may cause problems to tasks built on top of ATR. Effective ATR systems also need to take into account both the unstructured text and the structured aspects and this means information extraction techniques need to be integrated into the term recognition process.

A Bayesian formulation of search, control and the exploration/exploitation trade-off

A new approach to optimisation is introduced based on a precise probabilistic statement of what is ideally required of an optimisation method. It is convenient to express the formalism in terms of the control of a stationary environment. This leads to an objective function for the controller which unifies the objectives of exploration and exploitation, thereby providing a quantitative principle for managing this trade-off. This is demonstrated using a variant of the multi-armed bandit problem. This approach opens new possibilities for optimisation algorithms, particularly by using neural network or other adaptive methods for the adaptive controller. It also opens possibilities for deepening understanding of existing methods. The realisation of these possibilities requires research into practical approximations of the exact formalism.

An integrated scheduling problem of PCB components on sequential pick-and-place machines:mathematical models and heuristic solutions

This paper formulates several mathematical models for determining the optimal sequence of component placements and assignment of component types to feeders simultaneously or the integrated scheduling problem for a type of surface mount technology placement machines, called the sequential pick-andplace (PAP) machine. A PAP machine has multiple stationary feeders storing components, a stationary working table holding a printed circuit board (PCB), and a movable placement head to pick up components from feeders and place them to a board. The objective of integrated problem is to minimize the total distance traveled by the placement head. Two integer nonlinear programming models are formulated first. Then, each of them is equivalently converted into an integer linear type. The models for the integrated problem are verified by two commercial packages. In addition, a hybrid genetic algorithm previously developed by the authors is adopted to solve the models. The algorithm not only generates the optimal solutions quickly for small-sized problems, but also outperforms the genetic algorithms developed by other researchers in terms of total traveling distance.

Integrated component scheduling models for chip shooter machines

This paper focuses on minimizing printed circuit board (PCB) assembly time for a chipshootermachine, which has a movable feeder carrier holding components, a movable X–Y table carrying a PCB, and a rotary turret with multiple assembly heads. The assembly time of the machine depends on two inter-related optimization problems: the component sequencing problem and the feeder arrangement problem. Nevertheless, they were often regarded as two individual problems and solved separately. This paper proposes two complete mathematical models for the integrated problem of the machine. The models are verified by two commercial packages. Finally, a hybrid genetic algorithm previously developed by the authors is presented to solve the model. The algorithm not only generates the optimal solutions quickly for small-sized problems, but also outperforms the genetic algorithms developed by other researchers in terms of total assembly time.

Achieving cost competitiveness with an agent based integrated process planning and production scheduling system

From a manufacturing perspective, the efficiency of manufacturing operations (such as process planning and production scheduling) are the key element for enhancing manufacturing competence. Process planning and production scheduling functions have been traditionally treated as two separate activities, and have resulted in a range of inefficiencies. These include infeasible process plans, non-available/overloaded resources, high production costs, long production lead times, and so on. Above all, it is unlikely that the dynamic changes can be efficiently dealt with. Despite much research has been conducted to integrate process planning and production scheduling to generate optimised solutions to improve manufacturing efficiency, there is still a gap to achieve the competence required for the current global competitive market. In this research, the concept of multi-agent system (MAS) is adopted as a means to address the aforementioned gap. A MAS consists of a collection of intelligent autonomous agents able to solve complex problems. These agents possess their individual objectives and interact with each other to fulfil the global goal. This paper describes a novel use of an autonomous agent system to facilitate the integration of process planning and production scheduling functions to cope with unpredictable demands, in terms of uncertainties in product mix and demand pattern. The novelty lies with the currency-based iterative agent bidding mechanism to allow process planning and production scheduling options to be evaluated simultaneously, so as to search for an optimised, cost-effective solution. This agent based system aims to achieve manufacturing competence by means of enhancing the flexibility and agility of manufacturing enterprises.

Exploring ant-based algorithms for gene expression data analysis

Objective: Recently, much research has been proposed using nature inspired algorithms to perform complex machine learning tasks. Ant colony optimization (ACO) is one such algorithm based on swarm intelligence and is derived from a model inspired by the collective foraging behavior of ants. Taking advantage of the ACO in traits such as self-organization and robustness, this paper investigates ant-based algorithms for gene expression data clustering and associative classification. Methods and material: An ant-based clustering (Ant-C) and an ant-based association rule mining (Ant-ARM) algorithms are proposed for gene expression data analysis. The proposed algorithms make use of the natural behavior of ants such as cooperation and adaptation to allow for a flexible robust search for a good candidate solution. Results: Ant-C has been tested on the three datasets selected from the Stanford Genomic Resource Database and achieved relatively high accuracy compared to other classical clustering methods. Ant-ARM has been tested on the acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL)/acute myeloid leukemia (AML) dataset and generated about 30 classification rules with high accuracy. Conclusions: Ant-C can generate optimal number of clusters without incorporating any other algorithms such as K-means or agglomerative hierarchical clustering. For associative classification, while a few of the well-known algorithms such as Apriori, FP-growth and Magnum Opus are unable to mine any association rules from the ALL/AML dataset within a reasonable period of time, Ant-ARM is able to extract associative classification rules.

Message-passing algorithms for optimal utilization of cognitive radio networks

Cognitive Radio has been proposed as a key technology to significantly improve spectrum usage in wireless networks by enabling unlicensed users to access unused resource. We present new algorithms that are needed for the implementation of opportunistic scheduling policies that maximize the throughput utilization of resources by secondary users, under maximum interference constraints imposed by existing primary users. Our approach is based on the Belief Propagation (BP) algorithm, which is advantageous due to its simplicity and potential for distributed implementation. We examine convergence properties and evaluate the performance of the proposed BP algorithms via simulations and demonstrate that the results compare favorably with a benchmark greedy strategy. © 2013 IEEE.

Exposing market mechanism design trade-offs via multi-objective evolutionary search

Market mechanisms are a means by which resources in contention can be allocated between contending parties, both in human economies and those populated by software agents. Designing such mechanisms has traditionally been carried out by hand, and more recently by automation. Assessing these mechanisms typically involves them being evaluated with respect to multiple conflicting objectives, which can often be nonlinear, noisy, and expensive to compute. For typical performance objectives, it is known that designed mechanisms often fall short on being optimal across all objectives simultaneously. However, in all previous automated approaches, either only a single objective is considered, or else the multiple performance objectives are combined into a single objective. In this paper we do not aggregate objectives, instead considering a direct, novel application of multi-objective evolutionary algorithms (MOEAs) to the problem of automated mechanism design. This allows the automatic discovery of trade-offs that such objectives impose on mechanisms. We pose the problem of mechanism design, specifically for the class of linear redistribution mechanisms, as a naturally existing multi-objective optimisation problem. We apply a modified version of NSGA-II in order to design mechanisms within this class, given economically relevant objectives such as welfare and fairness. This application of NSGA-II exposes tradeoffs between objectives, revealing relationships between them that were otherwise unknown for this mechanism class. The understanding of the trade-off gained from the application of MOEAs can thus help practitioners with an insightful application of discovered mechanisms in their respective real/artificial markets.

Improving scheduling techniques in heterogeneous systems with dynamic, on-line optimisations

Computational performance increasingly depends on parallelism, and many systems rely on heterogeneous resources such as GPUs and FPGAs to accelerate computationally intensive applications. However, implementations for such heterogeneous systems are often hand-crafted and optimised to one computation scenario, and it can be challenging to maintain high performance when application parameters change. In this paper, we demonstrate that machine learning can help to dynamically choose parameters for task scheduling and load-balancing based on changing characteristics of the incoming workload. We use a financial option pricing application as a case study. We propose a simulation of processing financial tasks on a heterogeneous system with GPUs and FPGAs, and show how dynamic, on-line optimisations could improve such a system. We compare on-line and batch processing algorithms, and we also consider cases with no dynamic optimisations.