Logistics by rail:is this the key to more sustainable traffic policies in Northern Germany?

Despite the fact that Germany has a well- expanded traffic infrastructure, the country con-fronts a strong growth in freight volumes and it is very likely that in the forthcoming yearsit will not be able to reasonably cope with the increasing demand. Against this back-ground, the aim of this paper is to provide an in-depth analysis of the transport sector in North Germany in an effort to identify, if any, the possibilities of collapse as a result of the continuous increase in the demand of freight traffic. The research based on the DelphiTechnique, collects, analyses and summarizes the opinions of a group of experts in theaforementioned issues. Results indicate that railways could represent the solution to theforecasted growing freight volumes in the next years, not only in Germany, but also in thewhole European transport sector. In spite of continuous efforts undertaken by the politicsand the economy, the existing logistics and freight traffic concepts are not sufficient. Fi-nancing is too scarce; traffic concepts take issues like sustainability, environment protec-tion and working conditions into little consideration.

The challenges of representing human behaviour in simulation models:some case examples from supply chain, evacuation modelling and rail disruption

As more of the economy moves from traditional manufacturing to the service sector, the nature of work is becoming less tangible and thus, the representation of human behaviour in models is becoming more important. Representing human behaviour and decision making in models is challenging, both in terms of capturing the essence of the processes, and also the way that those behaviours and decisions are or can be represented in the models themselves. In order to advance understanding in this area, a useful first step is to evaluate and start to classify the various types of behaviour and decision making that are required to be modelled. This talk will attempt to set out and provide an initial classification of the different types of behaviour and decision making that a modeller might want to represent in a model. Then, it will be useful to start to assess the main methods of simulation in terms of their capability in representing these various aspects. The three main simulation methods, System Dynamics, Agent Based Modelling and Discrete Event Simulation all achieve this to varying degrees. There is some evidence that all three methods can, within limits, represent the key aspects of the system being modelled. The three simulation approaches are then assessed for their suitability in modelling these various aspects. Illustration of behavioural modelling will be provided from cases in supply chain management, evacuation modelling and rail disruption.

Action research: minimising the impact of disruptive incidents for rail passengers through improved sharing of information

This paper reports on an action research project based in the UK rail industry; it used a novel type of Soft Systems Methodology (known as PrOH Modelling) to facilitate change in a major Train Operating Company (TOC). The project looked at a number of different disruptive incidents to compare and contrast practice via the Mitigate, Prevent, React and Recover (MPRR) Framework. One incident is detailed in depth. The paper also looks at the general process of conducting action research. This work will be of interest for researchers in the rail sector and for those conducting operations action research projects.