Mathematical modelling of patient risks in a hospital environment, using multiple regression analysis

The aim of this research work was primarily to examine the relevance of patient parameters, ward structures, procedures and practices, in respect of the potential hazards of wound cross-infection and nasal colonisation with multiple resistant strains of Staphylococcus aureus, which it is thought might provide a useful indication of a patient's general susceptibility to wound infection. Information from a large cross-sectional survey involving 12,000 patients from some 41 hospitals and 375 wards was collected over a five-year period from 1967-72, and its validity checked before any subsequent analysis was carried out. Many environmental factors and procedures which had previously been thought (but never conclusively proved) to have an influence on wound infection or nasal colonisation rates, were assessed, and subsequently dismissed as not being significant, provided that the standard of the current range of practices and procedures is maintained and not allowed to deteriorate. Retrospective analysis revealed that the probability of wound infection was influenced by the patient's age, duration of pre-operative hospitalisation, sex, type of wound, presence and type of drain, number of patients in ward, and other special risk factors, whilst nasal colonisation was found to be influenced by the patient's age, total duration of hospitalisation, sex, antibiotics, proportion of occupied beds in the ward, average distance between bed centres and special risk factors. A multi-variate regression analysis technique was used to develop statistical models, consisting of variable patient and environmental factors which were found to have a significant influence on the risks pertaining to wound infection and nasal colonisation. A relationship between wound infection and nasal colonisation was then established and this led to the development of a more advanced model for predicting wound infections, taking advantage of the additional knowledge of the patient's state of nasal colonisation prior to operation.

A retrospective study examining the nature, contributory factors and predictors of dispensing errors in community pharmacy

Introduction: Since 2005, the workload of community pharmacists in England has increased with a concomitant increase in stress and work pressure. However, it is unclear how these factors are impacting on the ability of community pharmacists to ensure accuracy during the dispensing process. This research seeks to extend our understanding of the nature, outcome, and predictors of dispensing errors. Methodology: A retrospective analysis of a purposive sample of incident report forms (IRFs) from the database of a pharmacist indemnity insurance provider was conducted. Data collected included; type of error, degree of harm caused, pharmacy and pharmacist demographics, and possible contributory factors. Results: In total, 339 files from UK community pharmacies were retrieved from the database. The files dated from June 2006 to November 2011. Incorrect item (45.1%, n = 153/339) followed by incorrect strength (24.5%, n = 83/339) were the most common forms of error. Almost half (41.6%, n = 147/339) of the patients suffered some form of harm ranging from minor harm (26.7%, n = 87/339) to death (0.3%, n = 1/339). Insufficient staff (51.6%, n = 175/339), similar packaging (40.7%, n = 138/339) and the pharmacy being busier than normal (39.5%, n = 134/339) were identified as key contributory factors. Cross-tabular analysis against the final accuracy check variable revealed significant association between the pharmacy location (P < 0.024), dispensary layout (P < 0.025), insufficient staff (P < 0.019), and busier than normal (P < 0.005) variables. Conclusion: The results provide an overview of some of the individual, organisational and technical factors at play at the time of a dispensing error and highlight the need to examine further the relationships between these factors and dispensing error occurrence.

An examination of adverse drug reaction reporting to the yellow card scheme

Chief pharmacists in 209 hospitals were surveyed about ADR reporting schemes, the priority given to ADR reporting, and attitudes towards ADR reporting. ADR reporting had a low managerial priority. Local reporting schemes were found to be operating in 37% trusts, but there were few plans to start new schemes. Few problems were discovered by the introduction of pharmacist ADR reporting. Chief pharmacists had concerns about the competence of hospital pharmacists to detect ADRs and were in favour of increased training. Lack of time on wards, and recruitment difficulties were suggested as reasons for hospital pharmacist under-reporting. Teaching hospitals appeared to have an increased interest in ADR reporting. A retrospective analysis of reporting trends within the West Midlands region from 1994, showed increasing or stable reporting rates for most sectors of reporters, except for general practitioners (GPs). The West Midlands region maintained higher ADR reporting rates than the rest of the UK. National reporting figures showed a worrying decline in ADR reports from healthcare professionals. Variation was found in the ADR reporting rates of Acute NHS Hospital Trusts and Primary Care Trusts (PCTs) in the West Midlands region, including correlations with prescribing rates and other PCT characteristics. Qualitative research into attitudes of GPs towards the Yellow Card scheme was undertaken. A series of qualitative interviews with GPs discovered barriers and positive motivators for their involvement in the Yellow Card scheme. A grounded theory of GP involvement in the Yellow Card scheme was developed to explain GP behaviour, and which could be used to inform potential solutions to halt declining rates of reporting. Under-reporting of ADRs continues to be a major concern to those who administer spontaneous reporting schemes.

Evaluating digital diabetic retinopathy screening in people aged 90 years and over

Introduction: The English National Screening Programme determines that all people with diabetes aged 12 and over should be screened annually for diabetic retinopathy (DR) until they die. Purpose: This study aimed to evaluate digital DR screening in patients aged 90 and over to establish whether it is appropriate to cease screening at age 90. Methods: A retrospective analysis of 200 randomly selected patients with diabetes aged 90 and over within the Birmingham and Black Country Screening Programme. Results: 179 (90%) patients attended screening at least once after turning 90 years of age. To date, the mean number of screens per person 90+ was two (range 1–6) and the mean age of the first of these screens was 91 years (range 90–98 years). 133 (74%) were put on annual recall after their first screen in their 90’s, of which 58% had no visible DR bilaterally. 38 (21%) were referred to ophthalmology - 35 (92%) for non-DR reasons and three for maculopathy. Of the 133 patients put on annual recall, 75 (56%) were screened at least once more. Seven improved, 36 remained stable, three became unsuitable and 29 deteriorated. Of the latter, 18 patients were referred to ophthalmology; one of these for DR. Conclusion: Patients with diabetes aged 90 and over are at low risk of sight threatening DR and annual screening in this age group may be unnecessary. However, annual screening does provide opportunistic identification.

Is twelve years old an acceptable age at which to begin Diabetic Retinopathy Screening?

Introduction: The English National Screening Programme for diabetic retinopathy (ENSPDR) states that “all people with diabetes aged 12 years and over should be offered screening” Purpose: The audit aims to assess whether the current guideline is suitable and whether diabetes duration should be taken into account when deciding at what age to start screening patients. Method: Retrospective analysis of 143 randomly selected patients aged twelve years or younger who have attended diabetic retinopathy (DR) screening in the Birmingham and Black Country Screening Programme. Results: 98% had Type 1 diabetes and mean visual acuity (VA) was 6/5 (6/4-6/36). 73 were under 12 with 7 the youngest age and 70 were aged 12. Both groups had mean diabetes duration of 5 years (1month-11years). For those under 12, 7/73 (9.6%) had background DR, of these mean diabetes duration was 7 years (6-8) and the youngest aged 8. In those aged 12, 5/70 (7.1%) had background DR; of these mean diabetes duration was 8 years (6-11). In total 12 (8.4%) patients aged 12 years or under developed DR. No patients had retinopathy worse than background changes. One patient was referred to ophthalmology for VAs of 6/12, 6/18 and was diagnosed with optic atrophy so returned to annual screening. Conclusion: The results suggest that the current guideline on when to begin screening should be readdressed as more patients under twelve developed DR than those aged 12. Diabetes duration may help when deciding what age to start screening adolescent patients as DR was not seen in those with disease duration.

Optic disc haemorrhage audit

Poster section INTRODUCTION. Retrospective Analysis PURPOSE. To evaluate the morphology and location of optic disc haemorrhages (ODH) identified at diabetic retinopathy (DR) screening to establish whether particular ODH are predictive of ocular disease (e.g. glaucoma). METHODS. Retrospective analysis of 77 patients who presented with ODH at DR screening in the Birmingham and Black Country screening programme between June 2009-March 2010. Mean age was 71 years (range 39-89). Cup/disc ratio (CDR), location and morphology of the haemorrhage were recorded. The outcome of the referral and the status of the ODH were followed up a year later. RESULTS. Of the 77 referred, 34 patients were unassessed for possible glaucoma. Of the 43 patients that were assessed in the hospital eye service for glaucoma, 11 (26%) were diagnosed with glaucoma. These glaucoma patients mostly presented with flame haemorrhages (64%) and blot haemorrhages (36%). Haemorrhages tended to adjoin the margin of the OD (64%), and were more commonly flame shaped (64%). They less commonly occurred in the optic disc itself (36%), and were all blot shaped. The OD Cup/disc ratio (CDR) of the patients with glaucoma (n=11) ranged from 0.33-0.57. It is interesting to note the highest CDR was 0.68 in the 77 patients referred. 32 patients were confirmed as not having glaucoma. 24 (75%) of these patients presented with an ODH adjoining the margin, of which 20 (83%) were flame, and 4 blot (17%) shaped. Only 8 (25%) presented with an ODH in the OD, of which 6 (75%) were blot shaped. One year follow up of the 77 referred cases revealed that the ODH resolved in 45 (57%) patients while 10 (13%) still had an ODH present. 15 (21%) were still under ophthalmology hence digital retinal photos were not available for assessment. Six patients (8%) (age range 71-91 years) died within the year, and one lost to follow up. CONCLUSIONS. The results suggest that a significant number of patients with ODH have glaucoma and that the differing morphology of the haemorrhage is not a major predictor i.e. blot versus flame shaped, adjoining or in the optic disc. The cup/disc ratio did not predict glaucoma either.

What is the prevalence of diabetic macular oedema involving the centre of the macula in patients undergoing digital diabetic retinopathy screening

Free Paper Sessions Design. Retrospective analysis. Purpose. To assess the prevalence of center-involving diabetic macular oedema (CIDMO) and risk factors. Methods. Retrospective review of patients who were screen positive for maculopathy (M1) during 2010 in East and North Birmingham. The CIDMO was diagnosed by qualitative identification of definite foveal oedema on optical coherence tomography (OCT). Results. Out of a total of 15,234 patients screened, 1194 (7.8%) were screen positive for M1 (64% bilateral). A total of 137 (11.5% of M1s) were diagnosed with macular oedema after clinical assessment. The OCT results were available for 123/137; 69 (56.1%) of these had CI-DMO (30 bilateral) which is 0.5% of total screens and 5.8% of those screen positive for M1. In those with CIDMO 60.9% were male and 63.8% Caucasian; 90% had type 2 diabetes and mean diabetes duration was 20 years (SD 9.7, range 2-48). Mean HbA1c was 8.34%±1.69, with 25% having an HbA1c =9%. Furthermore, 62% were on insulin, 67% were on antihypertensive therapy, and 64% were on a cholesterol-lowering drug. A total of 37.7% had an eGFR between 30% and 60% and 5.8% had eGFR <30. The only significant difference between the CIDMO and non-CIDMO group was mean age (67.83±12.26 vs 59.69±15.82; p=0.002). A total of 65.2% of those with CIDMO also had proliferative or preproliferative retinopathy in the worst eye and 68.1% had subsequently been treated with macular laser at the time of data review. Conclusions. The results show that the prevalence of CIDMO in our diabetic population was 0.5%. A significant proportion of macula oedema patients were found to have type 2 diabetes with long disease duration, suboptimal glycemic and hypertensive control, and low eGFR. The data support that medical and diabetic review of CIDMO patients is warranted particularly in the substantial number with poor glycemic control and if intravitreal therapies are indicated.

How accurate are photographic surrogate markers used to detect macular edema in the English national screening programme?

DESIGN. Retrospective analysis PURPOSE. Macular oedema is not directly visible on two dimensional digital photographs such that surrogate markers need to be used. In the English National Screening Programme these are exudate within one optic disc diameter (DD) of the fovea, group of exudates within two DD of the fovea and haemorrhages or microaneurysms (HMA) within one DD of the fovea with best corrected visual acuity (VA) worse than 6/9. All patients who present with any of these surrogate markers at screening are referred to an ophthalmology clinic for slit lamp examination. The purpose of this audit was to determine how many patients with positive maculopathy diagnosis on photography were truly identified by optical coherence tomography (OCT) with macular oedema. METHODS. Data was collected from patients attending digital diabetic retinopathy screening. Patients who presented with surrogate markers for macular oedema also had an OCT scan. The fast macula scan on the Stratus OCT was used and an ophthalmologist reviewed the scans to determine whether macular oedema was present. RESULTS. Maculopathy by exudates: Of 155 patients 45 (29%) showed thickening on the OCT of these 12 required laser. Those who also had pre-proliferative retinopathy (n=20) were more likely to have macular oedema (75%) than those with background diabetic retinopathy. Maculopathy by HMA and VA worse than 6/9: Of 66 patients 11 (16.7%) showed thickening on the OCT. 5 (7.6%) of these had macular oedema, 5 (7.6%) epi-retinal membrane, and 1 (1.5%) age related macular degeneration. None of these patients required laser. CONCLUSIONS. The likelihood of the presence of macular oedema and requiring laser treatment is greater with macular exudation than HMA within one DD and reduced VA. Overall the surrogate markers used show low specificity for macular oedema, however combining OCT with photography does identify those with macular oedema who require a true referral for an ophthalmological slit lamp examination.

Proliferative diabetic retinopathy (R3) referrals from the digital diabetic retinopathy screening program:urgency of appointment in the hospital eye service achieved and needed?

DESIGN. Retrospective analysis PURPOSE. To assess the clinical characteristics and outcomes of patients identified with proliferative diabetic retinopathy (PDR) referred from the screening program to the hospital eye services (HES) METHODS. a retrospective analysis of urgently referred PDR cases to Birmingham Heartlands HES from august 2008 until July 2010 RESULTS. 130 urgent diabetic retinopathy referrals were made and reviewed. 103 (68% male, 80% type 2 diabetes) were referred for PDR with a mean age of 59 years, mean diabetes duration of 17.8years. 69% were on insulin treatment at the time of the screening, with mean HbA1c of 10.4% (range-5.7 to 16.5%). 65% of the patients were offered appointments at HES within two weeks after referral from the screening. 50.5% of the patients were seen in the HES within 2 weeks, 22 and 16 % were seen 2-4 and 4-8 weeks after referral respectively. 6 patients never attended ophthalmology examination during the two years of review. Of all the attendees, 56% were booked for pan retinal photocoagulation (PRP) & 9(9.3%) for macular laser respectively on their 1st HES visit. 75% of the patients were newly diagnosed PDR and 26 had previous PRP laser but lost to follow up. 63 patients ( 66%) received either PRP or macular laser treatment (85.7% of which is PRP). 63% of the PRP treatment was performed within a month of first HES attendance. Retinopathy grading discrepancy between the screening program and HES was noted in 20% (21 patients). CONCLUSIONS. This data suggests that the digital screening programme is appropriately identifying high risk patients with PDR with timely PRP laser treatment in the majority of patients but raises concern over patients lost to follow up (hence failsafe tracking of appointment attendance), and review of grading discrepancies between the ophthalmology and screening service.

A scoring system for early prognostic assessment after neonatal seizures

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to devise a scoring system that could aid in predicting neurologic outcome at the onset of neonatal seizures. METHODS: A total of 106 newborns who had neonatal seizures and were consecutively admitted to the NICU of the University of Parma from January 1999 through December 2004 were prospectively followed-up, and neurologic outcome was assessed at 24 months’ postconceptional age. We conducted a retrospective analysis on this cohort to identify variables that were significantly related to adverse outcome and to develop a scoring system that could provide early prognostic indications. RESULTS: A total of 70 (66%) of 106 infants had an adverse neurologic outcome. Six variables were identified as the most important independent risk factors for adverse outcome and were used to construct a scoring system: birth weight, Apgar score at 1 minute, neurologic examination at seizure onset, cerebral ultrasound, efficacy of anticonvulsant therapy, and presence of neonatal status epilepticus. Each variable was scored from 0 to 3 to represent the range from “normal” to “severely abnormal.” A total composite score was computed by addition of the raw scores of the 6 variables. This score ranged from 0 to 12. A cutoff score of =4 provided the greatest sensitivity and specificity. CONCLUSIONS: This scoring system may offer an easy, rapid, and reliable prognostic indicator of neurologic outcome after the onset of neonatal seizures. A final assessment of the validity of this score in routine clinical practice will require independent validation in other centers.

Does cardiovascular therapy affect the onset and recurrence of preretinal and vitreous haemorrhage in diabetic eye disease?

Aims To review the role of cardiovascular disease and therapy in the onset and recurrence of preretinal/vitreous haemorrhage in diabetic patients. Methods Retrospective case note analysis of diabetic patients with vitreous haemorrhage from the Diabetic Eye Clinic at Birmingham Heartlands Hospital. Results In total, 54 patients (mean age 57.1, 37 males, 20 type I vs34 type II diabetic patients) were included. The mean (SD) duration of diagnosed diabetes at first vitreous haemorrhage was significantly longer, 21.9 (7.6) years for type I and 14.8 (9.3) years for type II diabetic patients (P<0.01, unpaired t-test, two-tailed). Aspirin administration was not associated with a significantly later onset of vitreous haemorrhage. Four episodes were associated with ACE-inhibitor cough. There was a trend towards HMGCoA reductase inhibitor (statin) use being associated with a delayed onset of vitreous haemorrhage: 21.4 years until vitreous haemorrhage (treatment group) vs 16.2 years (nontreatment group) (P=0.09, two-tailed, unpaired t-test, not statistically significant). During follow-up 56 recurrences occurred, making a total of 110 episodes of vitreous haemorrhage in 79 eyes of 54 patients. The mean (range) follow-up post haemorrhage was 1067 (77–3842) days, with an average of 1.02 recurrences. Age, gender, diabetes type (I or II) or control, presence of hypertension or hypercholesterolaemia, and macrovascular complications were not associated with a significant effect on the 1-year recurrence rate. Aspirin (and other antiplatelet or anticoagulant agents) and ACE- inhibitors appeared to neither increase nor decrease the 1-year recurrence rate. However, statin use was significantly associated with a reduction in recurrence (Fisher exact P<0.05; two-tailed) with an odds ratio (95% CI) of 0.25 (0.1–0.95). Conclusion In this retrospective analysis, the onset of preretinal/vitreous haemorrhage was not found to be accelerated by gender, hypertension, hypercholesterolaemia, evidence of macrovascular disease, or HbA1c. Neither aspirin nor ACE-inhibitor administration accelerated the onset or recurrence of first vitreous haemorrhage. Statins may have a protective role, both delaying and reducing the recurrence of haemorrhage.

Elevated ε-(γ-glutamyl)lysine in human diabetic nephropathy results from increased expression and cellular release of tissue transglutaminase

Introduction: Diabetic nephropathy (DN) is the leading cause of chronic kidney failure, however the mechanisms underlying the characteristic expansion of the extracellular matrix (ECM) in diabetic kidneys remain controversial and unclear. In non-diabetic kidney scarring the protein crosslinking enzyme tissue transglutaminase (tTg) has been implicated in this process by the formation of increased ε-(γ-glutamyl)lysine bonds between ECM components in both experimental and human disease. Studies in db/db diabetic mice and in streptozotocin-treated rats have suggested a similar mechanism, although the relevance of this to human disease has not been addressed. Methods: We have undertaken a retrospective analysis of renal biopsies from 16 DN patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus using an immunohistochemical and immunofl uorescence approach, with tTg and ε-(γ-glutamyl)lysine crosslink quantified by confocal microscopy. Results: Immunofl uorescent analysis of human biopsies (confocal microscopy) showed increases in levels of tTg (+1,266%, p <0.001) and ε-(γ-glutamyl)lysine (+486%, p <0.001) in kidneys with DN compared to normal. Changes were predominantly in the extracellular periglomerular and peritubular areas. tTg staining correlated with e-(?-glutamyl)lysine (r = 0.615, p <0.01) and renal scarring (Masson's trichrome, r = 0.728, p <0.001). Significant changes in e-(?-glutamyl)lysine were also noted intracellularly in some (=5%) tubular epithelial cells. This is consistent with cells undergoing a novel transglutaminase-mediated cell death process in response to Ca influx and subsequent activation of intracellular tTg. Conclusion: Changes in tTg and ε-(γ- glutamyl)lysine occur in human DN. Cellular export of tTg may therefore be a factor in the perpetuation of DN by crosslinking and stabilisation of the ECM, while intracellular activation may lead to cell death contributing towards tubular atrophy. Copyright © 2004 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Drug repurposing screen identifies Foxo1-dependent angiopoietin-2 regulation in sepsis

Objective: The recent withdrawal of a targeted sepsis therapy has diminished pharmaceutical enthusiasm for developing novel drugs for the treatment of sepsis. Angiopoietin-2 is an endothelial-derived protein that potentiates vascular inflammation and leakage and may be involved in sepsis pathogenesis. We screened approved compounds for putative inhibitors of angiopoietin-2 production and investigated underlying molecular mechanisms. Design: Laboratory and animal research plus prospective placebo-controlled randomized controlled trial (NCT00529139) and retrospective analysis (NCT00676897). Setting: Research laboratories of Hannover Medical School and Harvard Medical School. Patients: Septic patients/C57Bl/6 mice and human endothelial cells. Interventions: Food and Drug Administration-approved library screening. Measurements and Main Results: In a cell-based screen of more than 650 Food and Drug Administration-approved compounds, we identified multiple members of the 3-hydroxy-3-methyl-glutaryl-CoA reductase inhibitor drug class (referred to as statins) that suppressed angiopoietin-2. Simvastatin inhibited 3-hydroxy-3-methyl-glutaryl-CoA reductase, which in turn activated PI3K-kinase. Downstream of this signaling, PI3K-dependent phosphorylation of the transcription factor Foxo1 at key amino acids inhibited its ability to shuttle to the nucleus and bind cis-elements in the angiopoietin-2 promoter. In septic mice, transient inhibition of angiopoietin-2 expression by liposomal siRNA in vivo improved absolute survival by 50%. Simvastatin had a similar effect, but the combination of angiopoietin-2 siRNA and simvastatin showed no additive benefit. To verify the link between statins and angiopoietin-2 in humans, we performed a pilot matched case-control study and a small randomized placebo-controlled trial demonstrating beneficial effects on angiopoietin-2. Conclusions: 3-hydroxy-3-methyl-glutaryl-CoA reductase inhibitors may operate through a novel Foxo1-angiopoietin-2 mechanism to suppress de novo production of angiopoietin-2 and thereby ameliorate manifestations of sepsis. Given angiopoietin-2's dual role as a biomarker and candidate disease mediator, early serum angiopoietin-2 measurement may serve as a stratification tool for future trials of drugs targeting vascular leakage.

Evaluating digital diabetic retinopathy screening in people aged 90 years and over

To evaluate the effectiveness of digital diabetic retinopathy screening in patients aged 90 years and over.MethodsThis is a retrospective analysis of 200 randomly selected patients eligible for diabetic retinopathy screening aged 90 years and over within the Birmingham, Solihull, and Black Country Screening Programme.ResultsOne hundred and seventy-nine (90%) patients attended screening at least once. 133 (74%) annual screening after their first screen, of whom 59% had no detectable diabetic retinopathy; 38 (21%) were referred for ophthalmology clinical assessment-36 for nondiabetic retinopathy reasons and two for diabetic maculopathy. Cataract accounted for 50% of all referrals for ophthalmology clinical assessment. Of the 133 patients placed on annual screening, 93 (70%) were screened at least once more. In terms of level of diabetic retinopathy, assessability or other ocular pathologies, 8 improved, 51 remained stable, and 31 deteriorated. Of the latter, 19 patients were referred for ophthalmology clinical assessment; none of these for diabetic retinopathy.ConclusionsScreening provides opportunistic identification of important nondiabetic retinopathy eye conditions. However, in view of the low identification rate of sight-threatening diabetic retinopathy in patients aged 90 years and over, and the current mission statement of the NHS Diabetic Eye Screening Programme, systematic annual diabetic retinopathy screening may not be justified in this age group of patients, but rather be performed in optometric practice.

Optic Disc Haemorrhage (ODH) audit:should morphology determine referral?

A retrospective analysis of 77 patients who presented with ODH at DR screening in the Birmingham And Black Country Screening Programme between June 2009 -March 2010. Of 77 detected, 34 were referred with possible glaucoma and this was confirmed in 11 cases (26%) of those referred. The complete results suggest that ODH is a high indicayor for glaucoma but that differing morphology of ODH is not a major predictor.