The analysis and prediction of the quantity and composition of household refuse

This thesis describes the development of a simple and accurate method for estimating the quantity and composition of household waste arisings. The method is based on the fundamental tenet that waste arisings can be predicted from information on the demographic and socio-economic characteristics of households, thus reducing the need for the direct measurement of waste arisings to that necessary for the calibration of a prediction model. The aim of the research is twofold: firstly to investigate the generation of waste arisings at the household level, and secondly to devise a method for supplying information on waste arisings to meet the needs of waste collection and disposal authorities, policy makers at both national and European level and the manufacturers of plant and equipment for waste sorting and treatment. The research was carried out in three phases: theoretical, empirical and analytical. In the theoretical phase specific testable hypotheses were formulated concerning the process of waste generation at the household level. The empirical phase of the research involved an initial questionnaire survey of 1277 households to obtain data on their socio-economic characteristics, and the subsequent sorting of waste arisings from each of the households surveyed. The analytical phase was divided between (a) the testing of the research hypotheses by matching each household's waste against its demographic/socioeconomic characteristics (b) the development of statistical models capable of predicting the waste arisings from an individual household and (c) the development of a practical method for obtaining area-based estimates of waste arisings using readily available data from the national census. The latter method was found to represent a substantial improvement over conventional methods of waste estimation in terms of both accuracy and spatial flexibility. The research therefore represents a substantial contribution both to scientific knowledge of the process of household waste generation, and to the practical management of waste arisings.

Influencing water consumption at South Staffordshire Water PLC : a disaggregated behavioural analysis of contributory factors

This research identifies factors which influence the consumption of potable water supplied to customers' property. A complete spectrum of the customer base is examined including household, commercial and industrial properties. The research considers information from around the world, particularly demand management and tariff related projects from North America. A device termed the Flow Moderator was developed and proven, with extensive trials, to conserve water at a rate equivalent to 40 litres/property/day whilst maintaining standards-of-service considerably in excess of Regulatory requirements. A detailed appraisal of the Moderator underlines the costs and benefits available to the industry through deliberate application of even mild demand management. More radically the concept of a charging policy utilising the Moderator is developed and appraised. Advantages include the lower costs of conventional fixed-price charging systems coupled with the conservation and equitability aspects associated with metering. Explanatory models were developed linking consumption to a range of variables demonstrated that households served by a communal water service-pipe (known in the UK as a shared supply) are subject to associated restrictions equivalent to -180 litres/property/day. The research confirmed that occupancy levels were a significant predictive element for household, commercial and industrial customers. The occurrence of on-property leakage was also demonstrated to be a significant factor recorded as an event which offers considerable scope for demand management in its own right.

Wealth shocks, credit-supply shocks, and asset allocation:evidence from household and firm portfolios

We use a unique dataset with bank clients’ security holdings for all German banks to examine how macroeconomic shocks affect asset allocation preferences of households and non-financial firms. Our analysis focuses on two alternative mechanisms which can influence portfolio choice: wealth shocks, which are represented by the sovereign debt crisis in the Euro area, and credit-supply shocks which arise from reductions in borrowing abilities during bank distress. While households with large holdings of securities from stressed Euro area countries (Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal, and Spain) de-crease the degree of concentration in their security portfolio as a result of the Euro area crisis, non-financial firms with similar levels of holdings from stressed Euro area countries do not. Credit-supply shocks at the bank level result in lower concentration, for both households and non-financial corporations. Only shocks to corporate credit bear ramifications on bank clients’ portfolio concentration. Our results are robust to falsification tests, and instrumental variables estimation.

Incremental nature of anterior eye grading scales determined by objective image analysis

Aim: To use previously validated image analysis techniques to determine the incremental nature of printed subjective anterior eye grading scales. Methods: A purpose designed computer program was written to detect edges using a 3 × 3 kernal and to extract colour planes in the selected area of an image. Annunziato and Efron pictorial, and CCLRU and Vistakon-Synoptik photographic grades of bulbar hyperaemia, palpebral hyperaemia roughness, and corneal staining were analysed. Results: The increments of the grading scales were best described by a quadratic rather than a linear function. Edge detection and colour extraction image analysis for bulbar hyperaemia (r2 = 0.35-0.99), palpebral hyperaemia (r2 = 0.71-0.99), palpebral roughness (r2 = 0.30-0.94), and corneal staining (r2 = 0.57-0.99) correlated well with scale grades, although the increments varied in magnitude and direction between different scales. Repeated image analysis measures had a 95% confidence interval of between 0.02 (colour extraction) and 0.10 (edge detection) scale units (on a 0-4 scale). Conclusion: The printed grading scales were more sensitive for grading features of low severity, but grades were not comparable between grading scales. Palpebral hyperaemia and staining grading is complicated by the variable presentations possible. Image analysis techniques are 6-35 times more repeatable than subjective grading, with a sensitivity of 1.2-2.8% of the scale.

Peptide binding to the HLA-DRB1 supertype:a proteochemometrics analysis

A proteochemometrics approach was applied to a set of 2666 peptides binding to 12 HLA-DRB1 proteins. Sequences of both peptide and protein were described using three z-descriptors. Cross terms accounting for adjacent positions and for every second position in the peptides were included in the models, as well as cross terms for peptide/protein interactions. Models were derived based on combinations of different blocks of variables. These models had moderate goodness of fit, as expressed by r2, which ranged from 0.685 to 0.732; and good cross-validated predictive ability, as expressed by q2, which varied from 0.678 to 0.719. The external predictive ability was tested using a set of 356 HLA-DRB1 binders, which showed an r2(pred) in the range 0.364-0.530. Peptide and protein positions involved in the interactions were analyzed in terms of hydrophobicity, steric bulk and polarity.

The use of computational QSAR analysis in the toxicological evaluation of a series of 2-pyridylcarboxamidrazone candidate anti-tuberculosis compounds

A series of N1-benzylidene pyridine-2-carboxamidrazone anti-tuberculosis compounds has been evaluated for their cytotoxicity using human mononuclear leucocytes (MNL) as target cells. All eight compounds were significantly more toxic than dimethyl sulphoxide control and isoniazid (INH) with the exception of a 4-methoxy-3-(2-phenylethyloxy) derivative, which was not significantly different in toxicity compared with INH. The most toxic agent was an ethoxy derivative, followed by 3-nitro, 4-methoxy, dimethylpropyl, 4-methylbenzyloxy, 3-methoxy-4-(-2-phenylethyloxy) and 4-benzyloxy in rank order. In comparison with the effect of selected carboxamidrazone agents on cells alone, the presence of either N-acetyl cysteine (NAC) or glutathione caused a significant reduction in the toxicity of INH, as well as on the 4-benzyloxy derivative, although both increased the toxicity of a 4-N,N-dimethylamino-1-naphthylidene and a 2-t-butylthio derivative. The derivatives from this and three previous studies were subjected to computational analysis in order to derive equations designed to establish quantitative structure activity relationships for these agents. Twenty-five compounds were thus resolved into two groups (1 and 2), which on analysis yielded equations with r2 values in the range 0.65-0.92. Group 1 shares a common mode of toxicity related to hydrophobicity, where cytotoxicity peaked at logP of 3.2, while Group 2 toxicity was strongly related to ionisation potential. The presence of thiols such as NAC and GSH both promoted and attenuated toxicity in selected compounds from Group 1, suggesting that secondary mechanisms of toxicity were operating. These studies will facilitate the design of future low toxicity high activity anti-tubercular carboxamidrazone agents. © 2003 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Wealth shocks, credit-supply shocks, and asset allocation:evidence from household and firm portfolios

We use a unique dataset with bank clients’ security holdings for all German banks to examine how macroeconomic shocks affect asset allocation preferences of households and non-financial firms. Our analysis focuses on two alternative mechanisms which can influence portfolio choice: wealth shocks, which are represented by the sovereign debt crisis in the Eurozone, and credit-supply shocks which arise from reductions in borrowing abilities during bank distress. We document het- erogeneous responses to these two types of shocks. While households with large holdings of secu- rities from stressed Eurozone countries (Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal, and Spain) decrease the degree of concentration in their security portfolio as a result of the Eurozone crisis, non-financial firms with similar levels of holdings from stressed Eurozone countries do not. Credit-supply shocks at the bank level (caused by bank distress) result in lower concentration, for both households and non-financial corporations. We also show that only shocks to corporate credit bear ramifications on bank clients’ portfolio concentration, while shocks in retail credit are inconsequential. Our results are robust to falsification tests, propensity score matching techniques, and instrumental variables estimation.