Quantitative risk assessment of groundwater quality utilizing GIS technology and coupled groundwater models

The thesis presents a two-dimensional Risk Assessment Method (RAM) where the assessment of risk to the groundwater resources incorporates both the quantification of the probability of the occurrence of contaminant source terms, as well as the assessment of the resultant impacts. The approach emphasizes the need for a greater dependency on the potential pollution sources, rather than the traditional approach where assessment is based mainly on the intrinsic geo-hydrologic parameters. The risk is calculated using Monte Carlo simulation methods whereby random pollution events were generated to the same distribution as historically occurring events or a priori potential probability distribution. Integrated mathematical models then simulate contaminant concentrations at the predefined monitoring points within the aquifer. The spatial and temporal distributions of the concentrations were calculated from repeated realisations, and the number of times when a user defined concentration magnitude was exceeded is quantified as a risk. The method was setup by integrating MODFLOW-2000, MT3DMS and a FORTRAN coded risk model, and automated, using a DOS batch processing file. GIS software was employed in producing the input files and for the presentation of the results. The functionalities of the method, as well as its sensitivities to the model grid sizes, contaminant loading rates, length of stress periods, and the historical frequencies of occurrence of pollution events were evaluated using hypothetical scenarios and a case study. Chloride-related pollution sources were compiled and used as indicative potential contaminant sources for the case study. At any active model cell, if a random generated number is less than the probability of pollution occurrence, then the risk model will generate synthetic contaminant source term as an input into the transport model. The results of the applications of the method are presented in the form of tables, graphs and spatial maps. Varying the model grid sizes indicates no significant effects on the simulated groundwater head. The simulated frequency of daily occurrence of pollution incidents is also independent of the model dimensions. However, the simulated total contaminant mass generated within the aquifer, and the associated volumetric numerical error appear to increase with the increasing grid sizes. Also, the migration of contaminant plume advances faster with the coarse grid sizes as compared to the finer grid sizes. The number of daily contaminant source terms generated and consequently the total mass of contaminant within the aquifer increases in a non linear proportion to the increasing frequency of occurrence of pollution events. The risk of pollution from a number of sources all occurring by chance together was evaluated, and quantitatively presented as risk maps. This capability to combine the risk to a groundwater feature from numerous potential sources of pollution proved to be a great asset to the method, and a large benefit over the contemporary risk and vulnerability methods.

Using quantitative analysis to implement autonomic IT systems

The software underpinning today’s IT systems needs to adapt dynamically and predictably to rapid changes in system workload, environment and objectives. We describe a software framework that achieves such adaptiveness for IT systems whose components can be modelled as Markov chains. The framework comprises (i) an autonomic architecture that uses Markov-chain quantitative analysis to dynamically adjust the parameters of an IT system in line with its state, environment and objectives; and (ii) a method for developing instances of this architecture for real-world systems. Two case studies are presented that use the framework successfully for the dynamic power management of disk drives, and for the adaptive management of cluster availability within data centres, respectively.

An analysis of the effect of process parameters on the formability of sheet metal

This investigation is in two parts, theory and experimental verification. (1) Theoretical Study In this study it is, for obvious reasons, necessary to analyse the concept of formability first. For the purpose of the present investigation it is sufficient to define the four aspects of formability as follows: (a) the formability of the material at a critical section, (b) the formability of the material in general, (c) process efficiency, (d) proportional increase in surface area. A method of quantitative assessment is proposed for each of the four aspects of formability. The theoretical study also includes the distinction between coaxial and non-coaxial strains which occur, respectively, in axisymmetrical and unsymmetrical forming processes and the inadequacy of the circular grid system for the assessment of formability is explained in the light of this distinction. (2) Experimental Study As one of the bases of the experimental work, the determination of the end point of a forming process, which sets the limit to the formability of the work material, is discussed. The effects of three process parameters on draw-in are shown graphically. Then the delay of fracture in sheet metal forming resulting from draw-in is analysed in kinematical terms, namely, through the radial displacements, the radial and the circumferential strains, and the projected thickness of the workpiece. Through the equilibrium equation of the membrane stresses, the effect on the shape of the unsupported region of the workpiece, and hence the position of the critical section is explained. Then, the effect of draw-in on the four aspects of formability is discussed throughout this investigation. The triangular coordinate system is used to present and analyse the triaxial strains involved. This coordinate system has the advantage of showing all the three principal strains in a material simultaneously, as well as representing clearly the many types of strains involved in sheet metal work.

Quantitative optical coherence tomography for characterization of microscopic structures with varying refractive index

In this paper we have done back to back comparison of quantitive phase and refractive index from a microscopic image of waveguide previously obtained by Allsop et al. Paper also shows microscopic image of the first 3 waveguides from the sample. Tomlins et al. have demonstrated use of femtosecond fabricated artefacts as OCT calibration samples. Here we present the use of femtosecond waveguides, inscribed with optimized parameters, to test and calibrate the sensitivity of the OCT systems.

Quantitative analysis of multi-spectral fundus images

We have developed a new technique for extracting histological parameters from multi-spectral images of the ocular fundus. The new method uses a Monte Carlo simulation of the reflectance of the fundus to model how the spectral reflectance of the tissue varies with differing tissue histology. The model is parameterised by the concentrations of the five main absorbers found in the fundus: retinal haemoglobins, choroidal haemoglobins, choroidal melanin, RPE melanin and macular pigment. These parameters are shown to give rise to distinct variations in the tissue colouration. We use the results of the Monte Carlo simulations to construct an inverse model which maps tissue colouration onto the model parameters. This allows the concentration and distribution of the five main absorbers to be determined from suitable multi-spectral images. We propose the use of "image quotients" to allow this information to be extracted from uncalibrated image data. The filters used to acquire the images are selected to ensure a one-to-one mapping between model parameters and image quotients. To recover five model parameters uniquely, images must be acquired in six distinct spectral bands. Theoretical investigations suggest that retinal haemoglobins and macular pigment can be recovered with RMS errors of less than 10%. We present parametric maps showing the variation of these parameters across the posterior pole of the fundus. The results are in agreement with known tissue histology for normal healthy subjects. We also present an early result which suggests that, with further development, the technique could be used to successfully detect retinal haemorrhages.

Quantitative optical coherence tomography for characterization of microscopic structures with varying refractive index

In this paper we have done back to back comparison of quantitive phase and refractive index from a microscopic image of waveguide previously obtained by Allsop et al. Paper also shows microscopic image of the first 3 waveguides from the sample. Tomlins et al. have demonstrated use of femtosecond fabricated artefacts as OCT calibration samples. Here we present the use of femtosecond waveguides, inscribed with optimized parameters, to test and calibrate the sensitivity of the OCT systems.

Quantitative characterization of energy absorption in femtosecond laser micro-modification of fused silica

We present the results of experimental and theoretical study of an energy absorption of femtosecond laser pulse in fused silica. Fundamental and second harmonics of ytterbium laser were used in experiment while general case was considered theoretically and numerically. More efficient absorption at the second harmonics is confirmed both experimentally and numerically. Quantitative characterization of the theoretical model is performed by fitting key parameters of the absorption process such as cross-section of multi-photon absorption and effective electronic collision and recombination times.

Design of experiments to study the impact of process parameters on droplet size and development of non-invasive imaging techniques in tablet coating

Atomisation of an aqueous solution for tablet film coating is a complex process with multiple factors determining droplet formation and properties. The importance of droplet size for an efficient process and a high quality final product has been noted in the literature, with smaller droplets reported to produce smoother, more homogenous coatings whilst simultaneously avoiding the risk of damage through over-wetting of the tablet core. In this work the effect of droplet size on tablet film coat characteristics was investigated using X-ray microcomputed tomography (XμCT) and confocal laser scanning microscopy (CLSM). A quality by design approach utilising design of experiments (DOE) was used to optimise the conditions necessary for production of droplets at a small (20 μm) and large (70 μm) droplet size. Droplet size distribution was measured using real-time laser diffraction and the volume median diameter taken as a response. DOE yielded information on the relationship three critical process parameters: pump rate, atomisation pressure and coating-polymer concentration, had upon droplet size. The model generated was robust, scoring highly for model fit (R2 = 0.977), predictability (Q2 = 0.837), validity and reproducibility. Modelling confirmed that all parameters had either a linear or quadratic effect on droplet size and revealed an interaction between pump rate and atomisation pressure. Fluidised bed coating of tablet cores was performed with either small or large droplets followed by CLSM and XμCT imaging. Addition of commonly used contrast materials to the coating solution improved visualisation of the coating by XμCT, showing the coat as a discrete section of the overall tablet. Imaging provided qualitative and quantitative evidence revealing that smaller droplets formed thinner, more uniform and less porous film coats.