Project risk management:a combined analytic hierarchy process and decision tree approach

Time, cost and quality achievements on large-scale construction projects are uncertain because of technological constraints, involvement of many stakeholders, long durations, large capital requirements and improper scope definitions. Projects that are exposed to such an uncertain environment can effectively be managed with the application of risk management throughout the project life cycle. Risk is by nature subjective. However, managing risk subjectively poses the danger of non-achievement of project goals. Moreover, risk analysis of the overall project also poses the danger of developing inappropriate responses. This article demonstrates a quantitative approach to construction risk management through an analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and decision tree analysis. The entire project is classified to form a few work packages. With the involvement of project stakeholders, risky work packages are identified. As all the risk factors are identified, their effects are quantified by determining probability (using AHP) and severity (guess estimate). Various alternative responses are generated, listing the cost implications of mitigating the quantified risks. The expected monetary values are derived for each alternative in a decision tree framework and subsequent probability analysis helps to make the right decision in managing risks. In this article, the entire methodology is explained by using a case application of a cross-country petroleum pipeline project in India. The case study demonstrates the project management effectiveness of using AHP and DTA.

Integrated approach to project feasibility analysis:a case study

Feasibility studies of industrial projects consist of multiple analyses carried out sequentially. This is time consuming and each analysis screens out alternatives based solely on the merits of that analysis. In cross-country petroleum pipeline project selection, market analysis determines throughput requirement and supply and demand points. Technical analysis identifies technological options and alternatives for pipe-line routes. Economic and financial analysis derive the least-cost option. The impact assessment addresses environmental issues. The impact assessment often suggests alternative sites, routes, technologies, and/or implementation methodology, necessitating revision of technical and financial analysis. This report suggests an integrated approach to feasibility analysis presented as a case application of a cross-country petroleum pipeline project in India.

Addressing the project implementation challenges in the Saudi Arabian power supply industry: an investigative approach towards improving project delivery

For many decades, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia has been widely known for being a reliable oil exporter. This fact, however, has not exempted it from facing significant domestic energy challenges. One of the most pressing of these challenges involves bridging the widening electricity supply-demand gap where, currently, the demand is growing at a very fast rate. One crucial means to address this challenge is through delivering power supply projects with maximum efficiency. Project delivery delay, however, is not uncommon in this highly capital-intensive industry, indicating electricity supplies are not coping with the demand increases. To provide a deeper insight into the challenges of project implementation and efficient practice, this research adopts a pragmatic approach by triangulating literature, questionnaires and semi-structured interviews. The research was conducted in the Saudi Arabian power supply industry – Western Operating Area. A total of 105 usable questionnaires were collected, and 28 recorded, semi-structured interviews were conducted, analysed and synthesised to produce a conceptual model of what constitutes the project implementation challenges in the investigated industry. This was achieved by conducting a comprehensive ranking analysis applied to all 58 identified and surveyed factors which, according to project practitioners in the investigated industry, contribute to project delay. 28 of these project delay factors were selected as the "most important" ones. Factor Analysis was employed to structure these 28 most important project delay factors into the following meaningful set of 7 project implementation challenges: Saudi Electricity Company's contractual commitments, Saudi Electricity Company's communication and coordination effectiveness, contractors' project planning and project control effectiveness, consultant-related aspects, manpower challenges and material uncertainties, Saudi Electricity Company's tendering system, and lack of project requirements clarity. The study has implications for industry policy in that it provides a coherent assessment of the key project stakeholders' central problems. From this analysis, pragmatic recommendations are proposed that, if enacted, will minimise the significance of the identified problems on future project outcomes, thus helping to ensure the electricity supply-demand gap is diminished.

Evaluating and developing project-based learning:an empirical approach to evaluating CDIO

As a global profession, engineering is integral to the maintenance and further development of society. Indeed, contemporary social problems requiring engineering solutions are not only a consequence of natural and ‘manmade’ disasters (such as the Japanese earthquake or the oil leakage in the Gulf of Mexico) but also encapsulate 21st Century dilemmas around sustainability, poverty and pollution [2,6,7]. Given the complexity of such problems and the constant need for innovation, the demand for engineering education to provide a ready supply of suitably qualified engineering graduates, able to make innovative decisions has never been higher [3,5]. Bearing this in mind, and taking account problems of attrition in engineering education [1,6,4] innovation in the way in which the curriculum is developed and delivered is crucial. CDIO [Conceive, Design, Implement, Operate] provides a potentially ground-breaking solution to such dilemmas. Aimed at equipping students with practical engineering skills supported by the necessary theoretical background, CDIO could potentially change the way engineering is perceived and experienced within higher education. Aston University introduced CDIO into its Mechanical Engineering and Design programmes in October 2011. From its induction, engineering education researchers have ‘shadowed’ the staff responsible for developing and teaching the programme. Utilising an Action Research Design, and adopting a mixed methodological research design, the researchers have worked closely with the teaching team to critically reflect on the processes involved in introducing CDIO into the curriculum. Concurrently, research has been conducted to capture students’ perspectives of CDIO. In evaluating the introduction of CDIO at Aston, the researchers have developed a distinctive research strategy with which to evaluate CDIO. It is the emergent findings from this research that form the basis of this paper. Although early-on in its development CDIO is making a significant difference to engineering education at the University. The paper draws attention to pedagogical, practical and professional issues – discussing each one in turn and in doing so critically analysing the value of CDIO from academic, student and industrial perspectives. The paper concludes by noting that whilst CDIO represents a forwardthinking approach to engineering education, the need for constant innovation in learning and teaching should not be forgotten. Indeed, engineering education needs to put itself at the forefront of pedagogic practice. Providing all-rounded engineers, ready to take on the challenges of the 21st Century!

Hierarchical approach to project planning:the case of a petroleum pipeline construction

Projects exposed to an uncertain environment must be adapted to deal with the effective integration of various planning elements and the optimization of project parameters. Time, cost, and quality are the prime objectives of a project that need to be optimized to fulfill the owner's goal. In an uncertain environment, there exist many other conflicting objectives that may also need to be optimized. These objectives are characterized by varying degrees of conflict. Moreover, an uncertain environment also causes several changes in the project plan throughout its life, demanding that the project plan be totally flexible. Goal programming (GP), a multiple criteria decision making technique, offers a good solution for this project planning problem. There the planning problem is considered from the owner's perspective, which leads to classifying the project up to the activity level. GP is applied separately at each level, and the formulated models are integrated through information flow. The flexibility and adaptability of the models lies in the ease of updating the model parameters at the required level through changing priorities and/or constraints and transmitting the information to other levels. The hierarchical model automatically provides integration among various element of planning. The proposed methodology is applied in this paper to plan a petroleum pipeline construction project, and its effectiveness is demonstrated.

Supporting interoperable interpolation: the INTAMAP approach

In many Environmental Information Systems the actual observations arise from a discrete monitoring network which might be rather heterogeneous in both location and types of measurements made. In this paper we describe the architecture and infrastructure for a system, developed as part of the EU FP6 funded INTAMAP project, to provide a service oriented solution that allows the construction of an interoperable, automatic, interpolation system. This system will be based on the Open Geospatial Consortium’s Web Feature Service (WFS) standard. The essence of our approach is to extend the GML3.1 observation feature to include information about the sensor using SensorML, and to further extend this to incorporate observation error characteristics. Our extended WFS will accept observations, and will store them in a database. The observations will be passed to our R-based interpolation server, which will use a range of methods, including a novel sparse, sequential kriging method (only briefly described here) to produce an internal representation of the interpolated field resulting from the observations currently uploaded to the system. The extended WFS will then accept queries, such as ‘What is the probability distribution of the desired variable at a given point’, ‘What is the mean value over a given region’, or ‘What is the probability of exceeding a certain threshold at a given location’. To support information-rich transfer of complex and uncertain predictions we are developing schema to represent probabilistic results in a GML3.1 (object-property) style. The system will also offer more easily accessible Web Map Service and Web Coverage Service interfaces to allow users to access the system at the level of complexity they require for their specific application. Such a system will offer a very valuable contribution to the next generation of Environmental Information Systems in the context of real time mapping for monitoring and security, particularly for systems that employ a service oriented architecture.

An empirical study of the imperatives for a supply chain implementation project in Seagate Technology International

Singapore's electronics manufacturers are facing many questions. In the computer hard-drive industry, where the problem of obsolescence is common and where a product's lifecycle may be only six months, manufacturers are anxious to know what the next order-winning criteria will be. Since low labour costs are no longer a key factor, many organisations are developing their competencies in research and development, sales and marketing, logistics and supply chain management in order to maintain competitiveness. This paper illustrates how Seagate has envisaged a climate of cooperation and collaboration to better serve its customers in the areas of technology, cost and delivery. The paper is based on observations and findings following a longitudinal case study approach at the Seagate Storage Product Group (SPG) in Singapore. The seven-stage implementation framework adopted by Seagate in their SCM project is discussed, together with the process of how Seagate has created a paradigm shift towards a new culture of teamwork-based collaboration.

Social impact assessment:A case study of a sewerage project in Barbados

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the reasons of social impacts of projects in developing countries despite of thorough impact assessment in appraisal phase of projects. A case study approach on a sewerage project in Barbados was undertaken using primary and secondary information. The study reveals that although the impact assessment report suggested appropriate mitigation measures, but they were not implemented by the contractors. The study suggests fostering an interconnected and symbiotic relationship between appraisal and implementation phases of a project in order to manage project environment. Additionally, a more vigilant and proactive supervisory role should be instituted and strengthened over time and adapted within the dictates of environmental needs. Copyright © 2005 Inderscience Enterprises Ltd.

Construction risk management:a quantitative approach

Conventional project management techniques are not always sufficient for ensuring time, cost and quality achievement of large-scale construction projects due to complexity in planning and implementation processes. The main reasons for project non-achievement are changes in scope and design, changes in Government policies and regulations, unforeseen inflation) under-estimation and improper estimation. Projects that are exposed to such an uncertain environment can be effectively managed with the application of risk numagement throughout project life cycle. However, the effectiveness of risk management depends on the technique in which the effects of risk factors are analysed and! or quantified. This study proposes Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), a multiple attribute decision-making technique as a tool for risk analysis because it can handle subjective as well as objective factors in decision model that are conflicting in nature. This provides a decision support system (DSS) to project managenumt for making the right decision at the right time for ensuring project success in line with organisation policy, project objectives and competitive business environment. The whole methodology is explained through a case study of a cross-country petroleum pipeline project in India and its effectiveness in project1nana.gement is demonstrated.

Managing healthcare quality in project management framework

Healthcare professionals routinely deploy various quality management tools and techniques in order to improve performance of healthcare delivery. However, they are characterised by fragmented approach i.e., they are not linked with the strategic intent of the organisation. This study introduces a holistic quality improvement method, which integrates all quality improvement projects with the strategic intent of the healthcare organisations. It first identifies a healthcare system and its environment. The Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats (SWOT) of the system are then derived with the involvement of the concerned stakeholders. This leads to developing the strategies in order to satisfy customers in line with the organisation's competitive position. These strategies help identify a few projects, the implementation of which ensures achievement of desired quality. The projects are then prioritised with the involvement of the concerned stakeholders and implemented in order to improve the system performance. The effectiveness of the method has been demonstrated using a case study of an intensive care unit at the Eric Williams Medical Sciences Complex Hospital in Trinidad. Copyright © 2007 Inderscience Enterprises Ltd.

Integrated approach to healthcare quality management:a case study

Purpose - The purpose of the paper is to develop an integrated quality management model, which identifies problems, suggests solutions, develops a framework for implementation and helps evaluate performance of health care services dynamically. Design/methodology/approach - This paper uses logical framework analysis (LFA), a matrix approach to project planning for managing quality. This has been applied to three acute healthcare services (Operating room utilization, Accident and emergency, and Intensive care) in order to demonstrate its effectiveness. Findings - The paper finds that LFA is an effective method of quality management of hospital-based healthcare services. Research limitations/implications - This paper shows LFA application in three service processes in one hospital. However, ideally this is required to be tested in several hospitals and other services as well. Practical implications - In the paper the proposed model can be practised in hospital-based healthcare services for improving performance. Originality/value - The paper shows that quality improvement in healthcare services is a complex and multi-dimensional task. Although various quality management tools are routinely deployed for identifying quality issues in health care delivery and corrective measures are taken for superior performance, there is an absence of an integrated approach, which can identify and analyze issues, provide solutions to resolve those issues, develop a project management framework (planning, monitoring, and evaluating) to implement those solutions in order to improve process performance. This study introduces an integrated and uniform quality management tool. It integrates operations with organizational strategies. © Emerald Group Publishing Limited.

Innovation in healthcare services: a customer focused approach

Although the various tools and techniques of quality management are routinely deployed in order to improve healthcare quality, an integrated approach is lacking, which combines the customer focus to identify quality issues, analytical techniques for prioritising improvement measures and a project management approach to plan, implement and evaluate the improvement projects. This study develops an innovative framework using Quality Function Deployment (QFD) and a logical framework in order to address this issue, and demonstrates its effectiveness using a case study on the intensive care unit of a hospital.

Pragmatic approach to the development of robust real-time protocols

This research is concerned with the development of distributed real-time systems, in which software is used for the control of concurrent physical processes. These distributed control systems are required to periodically coordinate the operation of several autonomous physical processes, with the property of an atomic action. The implementation of this coordination must be fault-tolerant if the integrity of the system is to be maintained in the presence of processor or communication failures. Commit protocols have been widely used to provide this type of atomicity and ensure consistency in distributed computer systems. The objective of this research is the development of a class of robust commit protocols, applicable to the coordination of distributed real-time control systems. Extended forms of the standard two phase commit protocol, that provides fault-tolerant and real-time behaviour, were developed. Petri nets are used for the design of the distributed controllers, and to embed the commit protocol models within these controller designs. This composition of controller and protocol model allows the analysis of the complete system in a unified manner. A common problem for Petri net based techniques is that of state space explosion, a modular approach to both the design and analysis would help cope with this problem. Although extensions to Petri nets that allow module construction exist, generally the modularisation is restricted to the specification, and analysis must be performed on the (flat) detailed net. The Petri net designs for the type of distributed systems considered in this research are both large and complex. The top down, bottom up and hybrid synthesis techniques that are used to model large systems in Petri nets are considered. A hybrid approach to Petri net design for a restricted class of communicating processes is developed. Designs produced using this hybrid approach are modular and allow re-use of verified modules. In order to use this form of modular analysis, it is necessary to project an equivalent but reduced behaviour on the modules used. These projections conceal events local to modules that are not essential for the purpose of analysis. To generate the external behaviour, each firing sequence of the subnet is replaced by an atomic transition internal to the module, and the firing of these transitions transforms the input and output markings of the module. Thus local events are concealed through the projection of the external behaviour of modules. This hybrid design approach preserves properties of interest, such as boundedness and liveness, while the systematic concealment of local events allows the management of state space. The approach presented in this research is particularly suited to distributed systems, as the underlying communication model is used as the basis for the interconnection of modules in the design procedure. This hybrid approach is applied to Petri net based design and analysis of distributed controllers for two industrial applications that incorporate the robust, real-time commit protocols developed. Temporal Petri nets, which combine Petri nets and temporal logic, are used to capture and verify causal and temporal aspects of the designs in a unified manner.