Decision support system for risk management:a case study

This study demonstrates a quantitative approach to construction risk management through analytic hierarchy process and decision tree analysis. All the risk factors are identified, their effects are quantified by determining probability and severity, and various alternative responses are generated with cost implication for mitigating the quantified risks. The expected monetary values are then derived for each alternative in a decision tree framework and subsequent probability analysis aids the decision process in managing risks. The entire methodology is explained through a case application of a cross-country petroleum pipeline project in India and its effectiveness in project management is demonstrated.

Developing a decision framework for the strategic sourcing of biomass

The deployment of bioenergy technologies is a key part of UK and European renewable energy policy. A key barrier to the deployment of bioenergy technologies is the management of biomass supply chains including the evaluation of suppliers and the contracting of biomass. In the undeveloped biomass for energy market buyers of biomass are faced with three major challenges during the development of new bioenergy projects. What characteristics will a certain supply of biomass have, how to evaluate biomass suppliers and which suppliers to contract with in order to provide a portfolio of suppliers that best satisfies the needs of the project and its stakeholder group whilst also satisfying crisp and non-crisp technological constraints. The problem description is taken from the situation faced by the industrial partner in this research, Express Energy Ltd. This research tackles these three areas separately then combines them to form a decision framework to assist biomass buyers with the strategic sourcing of biomass. The BioSS framework. The BioSS framework consists of three modes which mirror the development stages of bioenergy projects. BioSS.2 mode for early stage development, BioSS.3 mode for financial close stage and BioSS.Op for the operational phase of the project. BioSS is formed of a fuels library, a supplier evaluation module and an order allocation module, a Monte-Carlo analysis module is also included to evaluate the accuracy of the recommended portfolios. In each mode BioSS can recommend which suppliers should be contracted with and how much material should be purchased from each. The recommended blend should have chemical characteristics within the technological constraints of the conversion technology and also best satisfy the stakeholder group. The fuels library is made up from a wide variety of sources and contains around 100 unique descriptions of potential biomass sources that a developer may encounter. The library takes a wide data collection approach and has the aim of allowing for estimates to be made of biomass characteristics without expensive and time consuming testing. The supplier evaluation part of BioSS uses a QFD-AHP method to give importance weightings to 27 different evaluating criteria. The evaluating criteria have been compiled from interviews with stakeholders and policy and position documents and the weightings have been assigned using a mixture of workshops and expert interview. The weighted importance scores allow potential suppliers to better tailor their business offering and provides a robust framework for decision makers to better understand the requirements of the bioenergy project stakeholder groups. The order allocation part of BioSS uses a chance-constrained programming approach to assign orders of material between potential suppliers based on the chemical characteristics of those suppliers and the preference score of those suppliers. The optimisation program finds the portfolio of orders to allocate to suppliers to give the highest performance portfolio in the eyes of the stakeholder group whilst also complying with technological constraints. The technological constraints can be breached if the decision maker requires by setting the constraint as a chance-constraint. This allows a wider range of biomass sources to be procured and allows a greater overall performance to be realised than considering crisp constraints or using deterministic programming approaches. BioSS is demonstrated against two scenarios faced by UK bioenergy developers. The first is a large scale combustion power project, the second a small scale gasification project. The Bioss is applied in each mode for both scenarios and is shown to adapt the solution to the stakeholder group importance and the different constraints of the different conversion technologies whilst finding a globally optimal portfolio for stakeholder satisfaction.

Measuring and modelling the influence of investor behaviour on investment decision making

Guest editorial

An effective use of 3-D CAD/CAM withing an overall C.I.M. framework

DUE TO COPYRIGHT RESTRICTIONS ONLY AVAILABLE FOR CONSULTATION AT ASTON UNIVERSITY LIBRARY AND INFORMATION SERVICES WITH PRIOR ARRANGEMENT

Establishing a framework for dynamic risk management in 'intelligent' aero-engine control

The behaviour of control functions in safety critical software systems is typically bounded to prevent the occurrence of known system level hazards. These bounds are typically derived through safety analyses and can be implemented through the use of necessary design features. However, the unpredictability of real world problems can result in changes in the operating context that may invalidate the behavioural bounds themselves, for example, unexpected hazardous operating contexts as a result of failures or degradation. For highly complex problems it may be infeasible to determine the precise desired behavioural bounds of a function that addresses or minimises risk for hazardous operation cases prior to deployment. This paper presents an overview of the safety challenges associated with such a problem and how such problems might be addressed. A self-management framework is proposed that performs on-line risk management. The features of the framework are shown in context of employing intelligent adaptive controllers operating within complex and highly dynamic problem domains such as Gas-Turbine Aero Engine control. Safety assurance arguments enabled by the framework necessary for certification are also outlined.

Decision making in nuclear waste management:the use of the synoptic approach

This thesis is concerned with the use of the synoptic approach within decision making concerning nuclear waste management. The synoptic approach to decision making refers to an approach to rational decision making that assumes as an ideal, comprehensiveness of information and analysis. Two case studies are examined in which a high degree of synoptic analysis has been used within the decision making process. The case studies examined are the Windscale Inquiry into the decision to build the THORP reprocessing plant and the Nirex safety assessment of nuclear waste disposal. The case studies are used to test Lindblom's hypothesis that a synoptic approach to decision making is not achievable. In the first case study Lindblom's hypothesis is tested through the evaluation of the decision to build the THORP plant, taken following the Windscale Inquiry. It is concluded that the incongruity of this decision supports Lindblom's hypothesis. However, it has been argued that the Inquiry should be seen as a legitimisation exercise for a decision that was effectively predetermined, rather than a rigorous synoptic analysis. Therefore, the Windscale Inquiry does not provide a robust test of the synoptic method. It was concluded that a methodology was required, that allowed robust conclusions to be drawn, despite the ambiguity of the role of the synoptic method in decision making. Thus, the methodology adopted for the second case study was modified. In this case study the synoptic method was evaluated directly. This was achieved through the analysis of the cogency of the Nirex safety assessment. It was concluded that the failure of Nirex to provide a cogent synoptic analysis supported Lindblom's criticism of the synoptic method. Moreover, it was found that the synoptic method failed in the way that Lindblom predicted that it would.

Integrated project evaluation and selection using multiple-attribute decision-making technique

The evaluation and selection of industrial projects before investment decision is customarily done using marketing, technical and financial information. Subsequently, environmental impact assessment and social impact assessment are carried out mainly to satisfy the statutory agencies. Because of stricter environment regulations in developed and developing countries, quite often impact assessment suggests alternate sites, technologies, designs, and implementation methods as mitigating measures. This causes considerable delay to complete project feasibility analysis and selection as complete analysis requires to be taken up again and again till the statutory regulatory authority approves the project. Moreover, project analysis through above process often results sub-optimal project as financial analysis may eliminate better options, as more environment friendly alternative will always be cost intensive. In this circumstance, this study proposes a decision support system, which analyses projects with respect to market, technicalities, and social and environmental impact in an integrated framework using analytic hierarchy process, a multiple-attribute decision-making technique. This not only reduces duration of project evaluation and selection, but also helps select optimal project for the organization for sustainable development. The entire methodology has been applied to a cross-country oil pipeline project in India and its effectiveness has been demonstrated. © 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Decision support system for project selection

The evaluation and selection of industrial projects before investment decision is customarily done using marketing, technical, and financial information. Subsequently, environmental impact assessment and social impact assessment are carried out mainly to satisfy the statutory agencies. Because of stricter environment regulations in developed and developing countries, quite often impact assessment suggests alternate sites, technologies, designs, and implementation methods as mitigating measures. This causes considerable delay to complete project feasibility analysis and selection as complete analysis requires to be taken up again and again until the statutory regulatory authority approves the project. Moreover, project analysis through the above process often results in suboptimal projects as financial analysis may eliminate better options as more environment friendly alternative will always be cost intensive. In this circumstance, this study proposes a decision support system which analyses projects with respect to market, technicalities, and social and environmental impact in an integrated framework using analytic hierarchy process, a multiple attribute decision-making technique. This not only reduces duration of project evaluation and selection, but also helps select an optimal project for the organization for sustainable development. The entire methodology has been applied to a cross-country oil pipeline project in India and its effectiveness has been demonstrated. © 2008, IGI Global.

Study of management decision making by ward sisters in a hospital and the effects on decision making after the implementation of a decision support sytem

This thesis considers management decision making at the ward level in hospitals especially by ward sisters, and the effectiveness of the intervention of a decision support system. Nursing practice theories were related to organisation and management theories in order to conceptualise a decision making framework for nurse manpower planning and deployment at the ward level. Decision and systems theories were explored to understand the concepts of decision making and the realities of power in an organisation. In essence, the hypothesis was concerned with changes in patterns of decision making that could occur with the intervention of a decision support system and that the degree of change would be governed by a set of `difficulty' factors within wards in a hospital. During the course of the study, a classification of ward management decision making was created, together with the development and validation of measuring instruments to test the research hypothesis. The decision support system used was rigorously evaluated to test whether benefits did accrue from its implementation. Quantitative results from sample wards together with qualitative information collected, were used to test this hypothesis and the outcomes postulated were supported by these findings. The main conclusion from this research is that a more rational approach to management decision making is feasible, using information from a decision support system. However, wards and ward sisters that need the most assistance, where the `difficulty' factors in the organisation are highest, benefit the least from this type of system. Organisational reviews are needed on these identified wards, involving managers and doctors, to reduce the levels of un-coordinated activities and disruption.

The production of a framework of competences for pharmacy practice in the European Union:the PHAR-QA project

Background and objectives: The goal of the PHAR-QA (Qualityassurance in European pharmacy education and training) project isthe production of a European framework of competences for pharmacypractice. This PHAR-QA framework (www.phar-qa.eu) will beEuropean and consultative i.e. it will be used for harmonization—butwill not to replace existing national QA systems.Methods: Using the proposals for competences produced by the previousPHARMINE(Pharmacy education in Europe; www.pharmine.eu) project, together with those of other sources, the authors produced a listof 68 personal and patient care competencies. Using internet surveytools the stakeholders—European pharmacy community (universitydepartment staff and students, community, hospital and industrialpharmacists, as well as pharmacists working in clinical biology andother branches, together with representatives of chambers and associations)—were invited to rank the proposals and add comments.Results and conclusions: Pharmacology and pharmacotherapy togetherwith competences such as ‘‘supply of appropriate medicinestaking into account dose, correct formulation, concentration, administrationroute and timing’’ ranked high. Other topics such as ‘‘currentknowledge of design, synthesis, isolation, characterisation and biologicalevaluation of active substances’’ ranked lower.Implications for practice: In the short term, it is anticipated that thissurvey will stimulate a productive discussion on pharmacy educationand practice by the various stakeholders. In the long term, thisframework could serve as a European model framework of competencesfor pharmacy practice.Acknowledgements: With the support of the Lifelong Learningprogramme of the European Union: 527194-LLP-1-2012-1-BEERASMUS-EMCR. This publication reflects the views only of theauthors; the Commission cannot be held responsible for any usewhich may be made of the information contained therein.

Analytic hierarchy process helps evaluate projects in Indian oil pipeline industry

Conventionally, oil pipeline projects are evaluated thoroughly by the owner before investment decision is made using market, technical and financial analysis sequentially. The market analysis determines pipelines throughput and supply and demand points. Subsequent, technical analysis identifies technological options and economic and financial analysis then derives the least cost option among all technically feasible options. The subsequent impact assessment tries to justify the selected option by addressing environmental and social issues. The impact assessment often suggests alternative sites, technologies, and/or implementation methodology, necessitating revision of technical and financial analysis. This study addresses these issues via an integrated project evaluation and selection model. The model uses analytic hierarchy process, a multiple-attribute decision-making technique. The effectiveness of the model has been demonstrated through a case application on cross-country petroleum pipeline project in India.

The finance of biotechnology:investment in new biotechnology firms by British venture capitalists-attitudes to, and evaluation of, business proposals

A notable feature of the recent commercialisation of biotechnology has been the success of 200 or so new firms, established in America since 1976, in exploiting specialised market niches. A key factor in their formation has been the ready availability of venture capital funding. These firms have been instrumental in establishing America's lead in exploiting biotechnology. It is this example which Britain has attempted to emulate as part of its strategy for developing its own biotechnology capabilities. This thesis investigated some aspects of the relationship between biotechnology and venture capital, concentrating on the determinants of the venture capitalist's investment decision. Following an extensive literature survey, two hypothetical business proposals were used to find what venture capitalists themselves consider to be the key elements of this decision. It was found that venture capitalists invest in people, not products, and businesses, not industries. It was concluded that venture capital-backed small firms should, therefore, be seen as an adjunct to the development of biotechnology in Britain, rather than as a substitute for a co-ordinated, co-operative strategy involving Government, the financial institutions, industry and academia. This is chiefly because the small size of the UK's domestic market means that many potentially important innovations in biotechnology may continue to be lost, since the short term identification of market opportunities for biotechnology products will dictate that they are insupportable in Britain alone. In addition, the data analysis highlighted some interesting methodological issues concerning the investigation of investment decision making. These related especially to shortcomings in the use of scoresheets and questionnaires in research in this area. The conclusion here was that future research should concentrate on the reasons why an individual reaches an investment decision. It is argued that only in this way can the nature of the evaluation procedures employed by venture capitalists be properly understood.

A contingency framework for information systems development

This research concerns information systems and information systems development. The thesis describes an approach to information systems development called Multiview. This is a methodology which seeks to combine the strengths of a number of different, existing approaches in a coherent manner. Many of these approaches are radically different in terms of concepts, philosophy, assumptions, methods, techniques and tools. Three case studies are described presenting Multiview 'in action'. The first is used mainly to expose the strengths and weaknesses of an early version of the approach discussed in the thesis. Tools and techniques are described in the thesis which aim to strengthen the approach. Two further case studies are presented to illustrate the use of this second version of Multiview. This is not put forward as an 'ideal methodology' and the case studies expose some of the difficulties and practical problems of information systems work and the use of the methodology. A more contingency based approach to information systems development is advocated using Multiview as a framework rather than a prescriptive tool. Each information systems project and the use of the framework is unique, contingent on the particular problem situation. The skills of different analysts, the backgrounds of users and the situations in which they are constrained to work have always to be taken into account in any project. The realities of the situation will cause departure from the 'ideal methodology' in order to allow for the exigencies of the real world. Multiview can therefore be said to be an approach used to explore the application area in order to develop an information system.

Planning and decision-making for energy recovery from waste at the sub-regional level

This research project has developed a novel decision support system using Geographical Information Systems and Multi Criteria Decision Analysis and used it to develop and evaluate energy-from-waste policy options. The system was validated by applying it to the UK administrative areas of Cornwall and Warwickshire. Different strategies have been defined by the size and number of the facilities, as well as the technology chosen. Using sensitivity on the results from the decision support system, it was found that key decision criteria included those affected by cost, energy efficiency, transport impacts and air/dioxin emissions. The conclusions of this work are that distributed small-scale energy-from-waste facilities score most highly overall and that scale is more important than technology design in determining overall policy impact. This project makes its primary contribution to energy-from-waste planning by its development of a Decision Support System that can be used to assist waste disposal authorities to identify preferred energy-from-waste options that have been tailored specifically to the socio-geographic characteristics of their jurisdictional areas. The project also highlights the potential of energy-from-waste policies that are seldom given enough attention to in the UK, namely those of a smaller-scale and distributed nature that often have technology designed specifically to cater for this market.