Project risk management:a combined analytic hierarchy process and decision tree approach

Time, cost and quality achievements on large-scale construction projects are uncertain because of technological constraints, involvement of many stakeholders, long durations, large capital requirements and improper scope definitions. Projects that are exposed to such an uncertain environment can effectively be managed with the application of risk management throughout the project life cycle. Risk is by nature subjective. However, managing risk subjectively poses the danger of non-achievement of project goals. Moreover, risk analysis of the overall project also poses the danger of developing inappropriate responses. This article demonstrates a quantitative approach to construction risk management through an analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and decision tree analysis. The entire project is classified to form a few work packages. With the involvement of project stakeholders, risky work packages are identified. As all the risk factors are identified, their effects are quantified by determining probability (using AHP) and severity (guess estimate). Various alternative responses are generated, listing the cost implications of mitigating the quantified risks. The expected monetary values are derived for each alternative in a decision tree framework and subsequent probability analysis helps to make the right decision in managing risks. In this article, the entire methodology is explained by using a case application of a cross-country petroleum pipeline project in India. The case study demonstrates the project management effectiveness of using AHP and DTA.

Trust in leader-follower relationships:how and when trust building enhances dyadic and organisational outcomes

Guided by theory in both the trust and leadership domains, the overarching aim of this thesis was to answer a fundamental question. Namely, how and when does trust-building between leaders and followers enhance leader-member exchange (LMX) development and organisational trust? Although trust is considered to be at the crux of the leader-follower relationship, surprisingly little theoretical or empirical attention has been devoted to understanding the precise nature of this relationship. By integrating both a typology of trustworthy behaviour and a process model of trust development with LMX theory, study one developed and tested a new model of LMX development with leader-follower trust-building as the primary mechanism. In a three wave cross-lagged design, 294 student dyads in a business simulation completed measures of trust perceptions and LMX across the first 6 months of the LMX relationship. Trust-building was found to account for unexplained variance in the LMX construct over time, while controlling for initial relationship quality, thus confirming the critical role of the trust-building process in LMX development. The strongest evidence was found for the role of integrity-based trust-building behaviour, albeit only when such behaviour was not attributed to insincere motives. The results for ability and benevolence-based trustworthy behaviour revealed valued insights into the developmental nature of trustworthiness perceptions within LMX relationships. Thus, the pattern of results in study one provided a more comprehensive and nuanced understanding of the dynamic interplay between trust and LMX. In study two, leader trust-building was investigated cross-sectionally within an organisational sample of 201 employees. The central aim of this study was to investigate whether leader trust-building within leader-follower relationships could be leveraged for organisational trust. As expected, the trust-building process instigated by members in study one was replicated for leaders in study two. In addition, the results were most consistent for benevolence-based trust building, whereas both integrity- and ability-based trust-building were moderated by the position of the leader within the organisation’s hierarchy. Overall, the findings of this thesis shed considerable light on the richness of trusting perceptions in organisations, and the critical role of trust-building in LMX development and organisational trust.

Discrimination of healthy and cancer cells of the bladder by metabolic state, based on autofluorescence

Bladder cancer is among the most common cancers worldwide (4th in men). It is responsible for high patient morbidity and displays rapid recurrence and progression. Lack of sensitivity of gold standard techniques (white light cystoscopy, voided urine cytology) means many early treatable cases are missed. The result is a large number of advanced cases of bladder cancer which require extensive treatment and monitoring. For this reason, bladder cancer is the single most expensive cancer to treat on a per patient basis. In recent years, autofluorescence spectroscopy has begun to shed light into disease research. Of particular interest in cancer research are the fluorescent metabolic cofactors NADH and FAD. Early in tumour development, cancer cells often undergo a metabolic shift (the Warburg effect) resulting in increased NADH. The ratio of NADH to FAD ("redox ratio") can therefore be used as an indicator of the metabolic status of cells. Redox ratio measurements have been used to differentiate between healthy and cancer breast cells and to monitor cellular responses to therapies. Here, we have demonstrated, using healthy and bladder cancer cell lines, a statistically significant difference in the redox ratio of bladder cancer cells, indicative of a metabolic shift. To do this we customised a standard flow cytometer to excite and record fluorescence specifically from NADH and FAD, along with a method for automatically calculating the redox ratio of individual cells within large populations. These results could inform the design of novel probes and screening systems for the early detection of bladder cancer.

Association of depression and anxiety status with 10-year cardiovascular disease incidence among apparently healthy Greek adults:the ATTICA study

Background: Chronic stress frequently manifests with anxiety and/or depressive symptomatology and may have detrimental cardiometabolic effects over time. As such, recognising the potential links between stress-related psychological disorders and cardiovascular disease (CVD) is becoming increasingly important in cardiovascular epidemiology research. The primary aim of this study was to explore prospectively potential associations between clinically relevant depressive symptomatology and anxiety levels and the 10-year CVD incidence among apparently healthy Greek adults. Design: A population-based, health and nutrition prospective survey. Methods: In the context of the ATTICA Study (2002–2012), 853 adult participants without previous CVD history (453 men (45 ± 13 years) and 400 women (44 ± 18 years)) underwent psychological evaluations through validated, self-reporting depression and anxiety questionnaires. Results: After adjustment for multiple established CVD risk factors, both reported depression and anxiety levels were positively and independently associated with the 10-year CVD incidence, with depression markedly increasing the CVD risk by approximately fourfold (adjusted odds ratio (95% confidence interval) 3.6 (1.3, 11) for depression status; 1.03 (1.0, 1.1) for anxiety levels). Conclusions: Our findings indicate that standardised psychological assessments focusing on depression and anxiety should be considered as an additional and distinct aspect in the context of CVD preventive strategies that are designed and implemented by health authorities at the general population level.

Building bridges for innovation in ageing:synergies between action groups of the EIP on AHA

The Strategic Implementation Plan of the European Innovation Partnership on Active and Healthy Ageing (EIP on AHA) proposed six Action Groups. After almost three years of activity, many achievements have been obtained through commitments or collaborative work of the Action Groups. However, they have often worked in silos and, consequently, synergies between Action Groups have been proposed to strengthen the triple win of the EIP on AHA. The paper presents the methodology and current status of the Task Force on EIP on AHA synergies. Synergies are in line with the Action Groups’ new Renovated Action Plan (2016-2018) to ensure that their future objectives are coherent and fully connected. The outcomes and impact of synergies are using the Monitoring and Assessment Framework for the EIP on AHA (MAFEIP). Eight proposals for synergies have been approved by the Task Force: Five cross-cutting synergies which can be used for all current and future synergies as they consider overarching domains (appropriate polypharmacy, citizen empowerment, teaching and coaching on AHA, deployment of synergies to EU regions, Responsible Research and Innovation), and three cross-cutting synergies focussing on current Action Group activities (falls, frailty, integrated care and chronic respiratory diseases).

Benchmarking project management practices of Caribbean organizations using analytic hierarchy process

Effective management of projects is becoming increasingly important for any type of organization to remain competitive in today’s dynamic business environment due to pressure of globalization. The use of benchmarking is widening as a technique for supporting project management. Benchmarking can be described as the search for the best practices, leading to the superior performance of an organization. However, effectiveness of benchmarking depends on the use of tools for collecting and analyzing information and deriving subsequent improvement projects. This study demonstrates how analytic hierarchy process (AHP), a multiple attribute decision-making technique, can be used for benchmarking project management practices. The entire methodology has been applied to benchmark project management practice of Caribbean public sector organizations with organizations in the Indian petroleum sector, organizations in the infrastructure sector of Thailand and the UK. This study demonstrates the effectiveness of a proposed benchmarking model using AHP, determines problems and issues of Caribbean project management in the public sector and suggests improvement measures for effective project management.

Development of techniques to predict production line efficiency

This industrial based research project was undertaken for British Leyland and arose as a result of poor system efficiency on the Maxi and Marina vehicle body build lines. The major factors in the deterioration of system efficiency were identified as: a) The introduction of a 'Gateline' system of vehicle body build. b) The degeneration of a newly introduced measured daywork payment scheme. By relating the conclusions of past work on payment systems to the situation at Cowley, it was concluded that a combination of poor industrial relations and a lack of managerial control had caused the measured daywork scheme to degenerate into a straightforward payment for time at work. This ellminated the monetary incentive to achieve schedule with the consequence that both inefficiency and operating costs increased. To analyse further the cause of inefficiency, a study of Marina gateline stoppage logs was carried out. This revealed that poor system efficiency on the gateline was caused more by the nature of its design than poor reliability on individual items of' plant. The consideration given to system efficiency at the design stage was found to be negligible, the main obstacles being: a) A lack of understanding pertaining to the influence of certain design factors on the efficiency of a production line. b) The absence of data and techniques to predict system efficiency at the design stage. To remedy this situation, a computer simulation study of' the design factors was carried out from which relationships with system efficiency were established and empirical efficiency equations developed. Sets of tables were compiled from the equations and efficiency data relevant to vehicle body building established from the gateline stoppage logs. Computer simulation, the equations and the tables,when used in conjunction. with good efficiency data, are shown to be accurate methods of predicting production line system.efficiency.

Public libraries and the right to the [smart] city

The future of public libraries has been threatened by funding cuts and new digital technologies which have led many people to question their traditional role and purpose. However, freedom of information, ready access to knowledge and information literacy in all its digital and analog guises are more important than ever. Thus, public libraries remain significant spaces and places where people can socially interact and learn. In many countries public libraries are reinventing themselves and part of this process has been the redesign of library services and the design and construction of new library building and facilities that articulate the values, purpose and role of what has been termed 'the next library'. Following discussion of new library developments in London, Birmingham and Worcester in the UK, Aarhus in Denmark and Helsinki in Finland, the article concludes that public libraries are now both social and media spaces as well as being important physical places that can help city dwellers decide what type of urban world they want to see.

Women and peace in a divided society:peace-building potentials of feminist advocacy and reform in Bosnia and Herzegovina

Despite an improving international rhetoric highlighting the necessity of women’s participation in postwar settings, women still tend to be disadvantaged in peace-building processes (Chinkin and Charlesworth, 2006; United Nations, 2002). This chapter argues that women’s struggles for rights entail important potentials for peace-building in divided postwar societies. Women frequently are among the first who cooperate across ethnic divisions established and hardened during ethno-political wars. Feminist policy reforms often strengthen common state structures and their legitimacy, contributing to the overcoming of ethnic divisions. Women’s participation and contributions should, therefore, be much more recognized and promoted in peace-building processes. However, it is feminist advocacy that is key, not women’s participation per se. Women have often promoted nationalistic and violent agendas; yet, only if they champion the rights of women independent of their ethnic and political differences can peace-building potentials come into effect.